把整个声明通篇看下来，我国商务部的回应可谓是有理有据。 对于特朗普宣布将对中国加征100%的额外关税，中方已明确做出回应；同一时间，美国贸易代表也放 出狠话，宣称美国已经准备好与中国打贸易战，但语气却没那么坚定。 针对近期中美在经贸领域产生的纷争，10月12日我国商务部集中进行了回应。 我们都知道，自中美在马德里会谈以来，美国虽然口头上承诺履行两国达成的共识，但私底下在经贸问 题上的小动作不断，比如扩大对华出口管制清单，对中国海事、造船和物流业发起301调查，对半导体 设备、芯片等产品实施长臂管辖等等，充分暴露出美国毫无兑现承诺的诚意。 既然如此，中方采取相应的反制措施也是有理有据，包括但不限于加强对稀土及其技术设备的出口管 制、向美国船舶收取对等的入港费用，以及对美国芯片企业发起反垄断调查等等。 中国已经做好了回击美国的准备 特朗普这么折腾美国经济，明年中期选举不想要了？ 在回答"美国将对中国加征100%关税"问题时，商务部明确表示，中方不愿打关税战，但也不怕打。美 方应尽快纠正错误做法，否则中方将采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 一个突出的反映，就是美国贸易代表格里尔对此事的回应：他虽然放狠话称美国已经准 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is weak [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak. For polypropylene, the supply is increasing, the demand recovery is less than expected, and factors such as trade - war and high supply suppress the market price. For polyethylene, the market is affected by tariff policies, with high inventory pressure and limited cost support from crude oil [5][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview Polypropylene - Supply: During 20251003 - 1009, China's polypropylene production was 796,200 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons or 1.49% from the previous period. The loss of production enterprises decreased, and the supply pressure increased after the holiday [5] - Demand: The average operating rate of downstream industries rose 0.05 percentage points to 51.76%. Although most enterprises resumed production after the holiday, the recovery was restricted by multiple factors. The demand in the automobile and home - appliance sectors is strong, and there is a possibility of further increase in the operating rate with the upcoming Double Eleven [5] - Viewpoint: Trade - war and high supply suppress the price. The market will continue to be weak, but the rhythm of the trade - war should be noted [5] - Valuation: The basis and month - spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak. Low profits of MTO and PDH devices limit the downward space [5] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak with oscillations, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550. In the short - term, buy 05 and sell 01 for inter - period trading. No recommendation for inter - variety trading [5] Polyethylene - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86% from the previous period. There were no new maintenance devices this week, and some previous devices restarted [7] - Demand: The overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 2.75%, and orders for shed films increased significantly. The operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.52%, while that of PE pipes decreased by 0.50%, and that of PE hollow increased by 0.15%. The market was affected by tariff policies, and downstream orders were mainly for replenishing stocks [7] - Viewpoint: Affected by tariff policies and inventory pressure, and with limited cost support from crude oil, the short - term trend of PE may be weak [7] - Valuation: The basis oscillates, the month - spread weakens, and the L - LL spread oscillates. The valuation is neutral [7] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly oscillating, with an upper pressure of 7250 and lower supports of 6950 and 6850 for the 01 contract. No recommendation for inter - period and inter - variety trading [7] 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Price Spread: The price spreads of powder - granular materials and copolymer - drawn materials are shrinking, which is not conducive to market stabilization [16] - Capacity Utilization: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene in this period was 77.75%, a 1.14% increase from the previous period. Sinopec's average capacity utilization rate was 79.69%, a 0.17% decrease [22] - Maintenance: In October, the maintenance of polypropylene is relatively low, which suppresses the rebound space. Many devices have long - term or undetermined maintenance, and some large - scale devices are scheduled for maintenance in the future [23] - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new capacity of polypropylene is 5.055 million tons, with a capacity increase of 11.3%. The potential production pressure is still large [25] - Inventory: Both production and trader inventories of polypropylene increased month - on - month [27] - Cost: The oil price has dropped, and the oil - based production cost of polypropylene has decreased [32] - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene production have increased [38] - Downstream Industry: For BOPP, the operating rate is stable, the order days are decreasing, the finished product inventory is increasing, and the profit is slightly recovering but still at a low level. For tape mother rolls, the operating rate is flat, and the order days are decreasing. For plastic weaving, the operating rate and order days are increasing. For non - woven fabrics, the operating rate is increasing, and the finished product inventory is moderately high. For CPP, the operating rate and order days are decreasing [40][47][49][54][57] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Price Spread: The L - LL and HD - LL spreads of polyethylene are oscillating [62] - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86% from the previous period. This week's polyethylene production was 664,200 tons, a 3.04% increase from last week [68] - Maintenance: The maintenance loss in October is less than that in September, and many devices are in long - term or undetermined maintenance states [69] - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new capacity of polyethylene is 6.13 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17%. Some devices have been put into operation, and others are scheduled for commissioning in 2025 [70] - Inventory: The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises and social inventory have both increased month - on - month. The sample inventory of production enterprises was 488,600 tons, a 27.67% increase from the previous period [72][75] - Cost: The oil price has dropped, and the oil - based production cost of polyethylene has decreased [76] - Profit: The profit of oil - based polyethylene production devices has increased [83] - Downstream Industry: For agricultural films, the operating rate has increased month - on - month, and the order days have decreased. For packaging films, the operating rate and order days have both increased. For pipes and hollow products, the operating rates have decreased month - on - month [85][86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate mainly due to the resonance of macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless - steel price is likely to fluctuate weakly next week as macro and real - world factors exert pressure, and while cost restricts its elasticity, the cost marginally declines [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up put pressure on the nickel market. Trade war escalation and expected new pure - nickel production in the second half of the year increase supply, while alloy use of nickel - iron instead of nickel plates suppresses demand. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally, the inventory build - up problem in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase market concerns about nickel - ore supply governance, and the nickel - ore premium shows signs of stabilization and a slight increase [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [5]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The demand for stainless steel is suppressed by tariffs and weak post - real - estate cycle consumption. The overall apparent demand growth rate has converged. The trade - war resurgence may pressure long - term demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly, but actual production may fall short of expectations. The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers due to significant holiday inventory build - up, high upstream inventory, and weak peak - season demand. Cost provides a bottom - support, but short - term nickel - iron price drops may lead to cost adjustments [2]. - **Inventory**: In September, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 1.054 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% [5]. New Energy Market Inventory - On October 10, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, and 0 months - on - month to 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. On September 26, the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 months - on - month to 14.0 days. On October 9, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.1 months - on - month to 7.1 days [5]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mine. The Indonesian government also sanctioned 190 mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits. The Indonesian government requires companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online from October 1 to November 15 [6][7]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he may impose an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [7]. Futures Research Data - **Prices and Volumes**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180, down 2,300; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,780, down 80. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 159,070, an increase of 28,206; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,027, a decrease of 17,063 [9]. - **Industry Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel - bean premium, and various product price spreads and import profits are provided [9].

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 周五晚上A50期货和中概暴跌。 有人用特朗普的一句话来解释： 也许我们必须停止从中国大量进口。 也就是新一轮贸易战开打了。吓得资本市场瑟瑟发抖。 我并不认同这种观点，相反， 我认为特朗普又要给我们发钱了。 咱们好好分析一下。 一、特朗普总在间接逼东大秀肌肉 自打特朗普发动贸易战以来，我们会发现，每次他都会临阵退缩。 而东大则会秀一秀肌肉，让世界不断地感受到其强大到可怕的力量。 然后，就会有更多资金涌入A股和港股。 要不是央行有意通过释放银行间流动性对抗资金回流，A股恐怕还不止这点涨幅。 这一次也不例外，我们看看最近几天的消息。 1.更加严格的稀土管控； 2.大幅增加出口管控物项； 3.对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费； 4.对高通进行反垄断调查； 5.要求澳大利亚必和必拓用人民币结算铁 ...

2025.10.12 本文字数：2162，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 在美国总统特朗普威胁要大幅加征关税后，上一交易日刚刷新历史新高的美股尾盘遭遇重挫。 科技股抛售潮让纳指和标普500指数创近半年最大跌幅，衡量市场波动性的芝商所Cboe恐慌指数VIX跳 涨超30%，突破20关键心理关口。未来一周，市场将受到贸易战阴影、美联储降息预期和财报季开幕等 多重因素考验，波动性或持续高位运行。 官方数据缺席降息预期升温 美联储上周公布的政策会议纪要显示，劳动力市场前景被描述为 "存在不确定性"，并认为就业市场面 临的下行风险有所增加。 招聘市场低迷导致许多失业者面临长期失业困境，需要依靠失业救济金维持 生计。尽管通胀担忧仍存，但政策制定者对通过降息应对劳动力市场风险持开放态度。 施瓦茨向第一财经记者表示，虽然并未因政府停摆而改变对经济增长的展望，鉴于被迫休假的雇员可能 无法获得补发工资，甚至可能被解雇，此次停摆造成的损害可能会比以往更严重。 另一方面，经济面临的其他下行风险也在不断累积：贸易战升级；针对性行业的关税范围也将进一步扩 大，"数据迷雾" 正越发浓厚……这些因素都强化了美联储在风险管理层面的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to significantly increase tariffs has triggered a global financial crisis, leading to massive losses in the stock and cryptocurrency markets, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold have surged in value [1][3][7]. Market Impact - Following Trump's tweet about tariffs, the Dow Jones dropped 878 points, the Nasdaq fell by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 experienced its worst single-day decline since April [3]. - Major tech stocks were heavily impacted, with Nvidia losing nearly $230 billion in market value after a 4.89% drop, and Tesla and other tech giants also suffering significant losses [3]. - Chinese stocks faced even steeper declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index plummeting 6.1%, and companies like Alibaba and Baidu seeing drops exceeding 8% [3]. Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 13.5%, falling from a historical high of $126,000 to a low of $105,900, while other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin saw declines of over 20% [3][7]. - A significant number of leveraged trades resulted in over 152,000 liquidations within 24 hours, amounting to nearly $10 billion in losses [3][4]. Gold Market Performance - In stark contrast to the declines in risk assets, gold prices surged by 1.58%, surpassing $4,035 per ounce, as investors flocked to traditional safe-haven assets [7]. - The crisis highlighted Bitcoin's volatility and risk, as it fell more sharply than traditional assets during the trade war panic [7]. Broader Economic Concerns - The U.S. government shutdown entered its 10th day, with layoffs announced, exacerbating fears of economic stagnation [7][8]. - The potential impact of tariffs on consumer goods was significant, with reports indicating that the cost of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could rise to $2,300 due to tariffs, and Tesla vehicles could see a cost increase of $15,000 [8]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers reacted to the impending tariffs by stockpiling goods, leading to a surge in sales of electronics and a notable 11.2% increase in U.S. auto sales in March as buyers rushed to purchase before tariffs took effect [10]. International Reactions - The EU proposed retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. goods, while Japan and South Korea initiated measures to stabilize their markets in response to the U.S. tariff threats [11].

在美国总统特朗普威胁要大幅加征关税后，上一交易日刚刷新历史新高的美股尾盘遭遇重挫。 科技股抛售潮让纳指和标普500指数创近半年最大跌幅，衡量市场波动性的芝商所Cboe恐慌指数VIX跳 涨超30%，突破20关键心理关口。未来一周，市场将受到贸易战阴影、美联储降息预期和财报季开幕等 多重因素考验，波动性或持续高位运行。 官方数据缺席降息预期升温 由于民主党和共和党的拨款法案在参议院第七次未能通过，联邦政府部分停摆仍在持续。据报道，美国 国会在周二（14日）之前预计不会进行进一步投票，这意味着僵局将持续到下周。 这也让原本应该公布的多项数据被推迟，美国劳工统计局并未公布上周的就业报告，但已召回员工准备 9月消费者价格指数（CPI）。未来一周可能推迟的其他报告包括普查局的零售销售、住房开工和企业 库存。美国经济分析局已暂停运作，原定于10月30日发布第三季度GDP初值也可能受到影响。 外界只能从非公立部门的指标中寻找更多经济线索。密歇根大学的初步消费者信心指数降至55.0的五个 月低位，一年期通胀预期为4.6%，略低于9月的4.7%，而五年期通胀预期维持在3.7%。消费者调查主任 乔安妮许表示："高物价和就业前景黯淡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current appreciation cycle of the RMB is characterized by a smaller magnitude compared to previous cycles, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic factors such as the transition of the RMB into a financing currency and trade war hedging needs [1][4][11]. External Drivers - The external factors influencing the RMB exchange rate include the US dollar index and US dollar interest rates, with a focus on domestic dollar liquidity due to China's incomplete capital account convertibility [4][5]. - The current weakening of the dollar index is attributed to the divergence in monetary policies among major economies and increased hedging against dollar depreciation risks by market institutions [4][11]. Internal Drivers - The domestic environment is characterized by a "loose monetary + loose credit" cycle, contrasting with previous appreciation cycles that featured "tight monetary + loose credit" conditions, contributing to the smaller magnitude of the current appreciation [7][11]. - The RMB has shifted from being an investment currency to a financing currency, which, combined with low exchange rate elasticity, leads to a market preference for holding long positions in USD against RMB, thus suppressing the appreciation potential [11][13]. Market Outlook - The RMB is expected to remain in the current appreciation cycle until at least mid-next year, driven by the Federal Reserve's continued easing and the anticipated release of pending settlement orders [13][15]. - The fourth quarter may see a slight rebound in the dollar index, influenced by external factors, but the overall trend for the RMB remains upward, with caution advised for locking in exchange rates before the Spring Festival [18].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden announcement by Trump regarding additional tariffs on China has triggered a significant sell-off in the U.S. stock market, leading to fears of an escalating trade war and impacting major technology stocks [1][3][8]. Market Reaction - On October 10, U.S. stock indices experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56%, marking the largest single-day drop since April [1][3]. - Major technology stocks were heavily affected, with TSMC ADR falling over 6%, Broadcom and Tesla down over 5%, and Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Meta all experiencing declines of more than 3% [3][9]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by 4.7%, reflecting the severe impact on the semiconductor sector [9]. Trade War Context - Trump's tariff threat is a direct response to China's stringent export controls on rare earth materials, which are crucial for high-tech and military applications [4][11]. - China has implemented new regulations requiring foreign companies to obtain approval for transporting materials containing trace amounts of Chinese rare earth elements, particularly targeting the semiconductor industry [4][6]. Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements are vital for modern technology and military applications, with each F-35 fighter jet requiring approximately 417 kilograms of rare earth materials [5]. - The U.S. Department of Defense relies on China for over 90% of its rare earth materials, highlighting the strategic dependency [6][12]. Supply Chain Concerns - U.S. chip companies are urgently assessing which products contain Chinese rare earths, fearing that China's licensing requirements could disrupt their supply chains [7]. - Analysts estimate that establishing a complete rare earth supply chain in the U.S. could take at least eight years, while Trump's proposed tariffs could be implemented as early as November 1 [14][15]. Broader Implications - The conflict over rare earths signifies a broader struggle for technological dominance, with potential ramifications for global supply chains and technology competition [11][15]. - The situation reflects a shift from resource-based disputes to technology-based blockades, indicating an intensifying trade confrontation between the U.S. and China [15].

北京时间10月10号夜里，美股突然大跌。纳指盘中狂跌450多点，道指标普也跟着掉下来。到11号凌晨，三大指数全线下滑，市场慌得要命，不少钱都跑去 了债券和黄金。 特朗普10号在美国社交网站上说要对中国商品加征巨额关税。这话一出，华尔街立马慌了，一堆人开始抛股票。之前还在涨的美股全抹了回去，美元也跌 了。 这事发生当天刚好是周五，消息传得特别快。交易员们接到消息后马上卖股票，生怕损失更多。彭博社报道说市场直接从涨变跌，连带着避险资产价格都涨 了。 没人知道特朗普到底要加多少税，具体针对哪些商品。但他说得挺狠，市场立刻反应了。不少科技股跌得厉害，毕竟这些公司跟中国生意多，怕受影响大。 第二天亚洲股市开盘时，东京和香港股市也跟着跌了。大宗商品价格波动变大，全世界市场好像都受牵连了。这种连锁反应以前也见过，但这次跌幅格外明 显。 专家们议论纷纷，有人觉得特朗普是为了选票才这么闹，有人说是想给中美谈判施压。反正关税一高美国自家物价也会涨，美联储加息政策会不会受影响还 不清楚。 现在钱都往安全的地方躲，黄金和国债买的人多了。不少机构开始调整投资，不再赌风险而是专注保本。这种防御策略可能会持续一阵子。 科技公司已经在东南亚 ...