日本央行会议意见摘要：一位委员表示：日本央行可能会根据经济和物价改善情况继续加息；一位成员 表示，日本央行除了采取观望立场外别无选择，直到美国贸易政策相关事态在某种程度上稳定下来。 ...

美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）周一表示，美中暂时大幅下调关税，这显然是一种进步。然而，两国之间的关税"仍然很高"，而"中国仍然 是我们进口大量产品的主要贸易伙伴"。 她还称美国经济仍受关税影响。 库格勒说："在这种情况下，我仍然预计物价会上涨，经济会放缓，但幅度不会像北京和华盛顿关系缓和之前那么大。" 【美联储预测预计物价会上涨 经济会放缓】#中美相互24%关税90天内暂停实施# 她此前在一次演讲中强调，贸易政策"似乎可能会产生重大的经济影响，即使关税仍接近当前水平"，"仍远高于近几十年的水平"。 至于关税演变的不确定 性，库格勒女士认为，它"已经对经济产生了影响"，包括进口激增、家庭和企业士气的改变以及他们对未来的看法的改变。 图：阿德里安娜·D·库格勒，世界银行美国执行董事 © 世界银行#海外新鲜事##美联储# 库格勒在为爱尔兰中央银行活动准备的演讲稿中表示："当前很难判断美国经济的实际增速。贸易政策正在演变并可能持续调整，甚至今晨仍有新动态。即 便如此，即使关税维持在当前已宣布的水平，其仍可能产生显著经济影响。同时，围绕关税的不确定性已通过前置采购、市场情绪和预期对经济造成 ...

墨西哥财政部长：由于贸易政策缺乏明确性，墨西哥的经济增长可能会比最初预期的更为温和。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：美联储正密切关注贸易政策变化及其对生产力和经济前景的影响。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：贸易政策正在转变，但仍可能导致物价上涨和经济增长放缓。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $6,000 in the next four to five years due to macroeconomic uncertainties and changing investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [1][2] - Commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva suggests that gold prices could increase by 80% from the current level of $3,333 to reach the $6,000 target [1] - The potential for gold price increase is supported by the idea that if global institutional investors reallocate just 0.5% of their U.S. overseas assets to gold, it could drive prices to $6,000 by 2029 [1] Group 2 - Gold currently represents only 4.0% of global asset portfolios, but limited supply growth means even minor reallocations could significantly impact prices [2] - The rising interest in gold is attributed to its reputation as a "store of value," especially during economic downturns and financial uncertainties expected in 2025 [2] - Recent trends show that gold prices have been on an upward trajectory, which is likely to continue given the economic challenges anticipated in the near future [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a real GDP growth target of 8 percent for 2025, supported by increased domestic consumption and investment [7][30]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment [2][14]. - Merchandise exports growth slowed to 10.6 percent in Q1-2025 from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, influenced by high base effects and potential global demand slowdown [3][15]. - FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, while FDI disbursements remained resilient at $4.9 billion, reflecting a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year [3][21]. - Industrial production increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, compared to 4.8 percent in March 2024, with significant contributions from apparel, electronics, and machinery [4][17]. - Retail sales surged by 10.8 percent year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly two years, supported by a 9.5 percent increase in average monthly income [4][23]. - Inflation rose to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, driven by food and housing prices, but remains below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth reached 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, with consumption and investment growing by 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively [14]. Trade and Investment - Merchandise exports grew by 10.6 percent in Q1-2025, down from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, while imports increased by 16.9 percent year-on-year [3][15]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1-2025 from $7.7 billion in Q1-2024 [15]. Industrial Production - Industrial production index rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the PMI indicating expansion at 50.5 [4][17]. Domestic Consumption - Retail sales of goods and services increased by 10.8 percent year-on-year, supported by rising average monthly income [4][23]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation increased to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the SBV raising the inflation target to 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Fiscal Performance - Revenue collection for Q1-2025 reached 36.7 percent of the annual plan, driven by increases in VAT and corporate income tax [6][30].

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易政策谈判在即，价格延续震荡 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 ...

Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, with a goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion and a services trade deficit of $59.3 billion [1] - Japan's national debt has hit a record high for the ninth consecutive year, totaling ¥132.37155 trillion [3] Trade Policies - U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea are complex and unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, with a baseline tariff of at least 10% unless partner countries open their economies [1] - U.S. trade advisor emphasized that the EU is a priority in tariff negotiations due to a significant trade deficit, with the EU's VAT system being a focal point [1] Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank's Rehn suggested considering interest rate cuts if economic growth slows and inflation decreases due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that U.S. trade policies increase economic downside risks, stressing the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations [1][2] Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% to 41,249.38 points, while S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 5,659.91 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70% to $3,329.10 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.81% to $32.88 per ounce [4] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil main contract rose by 1.92% to $61.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.65% to $63.88 per barrel [5] Bond Market - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.889%, while 10-year yield decreased by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent neutral trend in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's stance on not rushing to cut interest rates, as the US economy remains relatively stable with ongoing inflation risks [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in the summer, but bullish momentum in gold has shifted to a "wait-and-see" mode [1] - Gold prices have stalled twice around the $3,400 per ounce level, indicating potential weakness in the short-term upward trend [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Short-term gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3,260 to $3,360 range, with potential testing of the $3,260 support level if negotiations among major economies yield positive results [1] - Conversely, if negotiations stall or tensions escalate, gold prices may challenge the $3,400 resistance level, with a breakthrough targeting $3,500 [1] - The current price action shows gold in a triangular consolidation pattern, with the effectiveness of the support level needing further confirmation [1] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has ended its previous volatile pattern, with both benchmark crude oil prices experiencing significant weekly gains driven by trade policy expectations [3] - The positive outlook is supported by the US-UK agreement and the prospects of US-China meetings, alongside improved import and export data from China [3] - Oil prices rebounded from the $60.0 mark, with recent trading pushing prices above $61.0, indicating a potential bullish trend [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The recent price action shows a bullish signal with the MACD indicator forming a golden cross, suggesting a potential upward trend in the short term [3] - Key resistance for oil prices is noted at $62.2, while support is identified at $60.0 [3] - The current trading price for WTI crude oil is around $61.0 [3]