Copper - Overnight copper prices showed narrow fluctuations, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The macroeconomic environment indicates a cooling job market in the U.S., with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. This data confirms a cooling job market, but its impact on the Federal Reserve's view on potential rate cuts in January remains uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in January has increased again [3][11] - The U.S. December Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, indicating a slowdown in order growth and rising price indices. Domestically, the Central Financial Office emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, continuing a moderately loose monetary policy [3][11] - Inventory levels show LME copper stocks at 165,875 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,652 tons to 412,444 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons, and BC copper increased by 1,012 tons to 6,977 tons. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting may introduce macroeconomic disturbances, leading to cautious sentiment in overseas financial markets [3][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Overnight LME nickel fell by 0.28% to $14,255 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66% to 111,890 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons. The LME 0-3 month spread remains negative, and the import nickel spread is stable at 400 yuan per ton [12] - Nickel iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55%. However, the raw material prices are under pressure due to falling nickel prices and weakening demand [12] - The domestic inventory of primary nickel is increasing again, and the basic fundamentals are dragging nickel prices into a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [12] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,553 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2602 closing at 21,825 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. Aluminum alloy prices increased slightly, with AD2602 closing at 20,925 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [13][14] - The SMM alumina price has fallen to 2,787 yuan per ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts have expanded to 100 yuan per ton. The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [13][14] - Domestic mining recovery is low, and external mining prices have shown slight declines. The market is gradually adjusting to a new trend of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices, with expectations of continued high prices [13][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,365 yuan per ton, down 0.59%. The reference price for industrial silicon is stable at 9,580 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 58,600 yuan per ton, up 1.48% [15] - The market is currently focused on hedging contracts or undelivered previous orders, with industrial silicon showing no clear trend and continuing to oscillate. The exchange has implemented measures to ease volatility in polysilicon [15] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between spot oversupply and warehouse shortages, with no upward driving force for the spot market. However, the lack of significant warehouse registration provides some support for the futures market [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 650 yuan per ton to 95,150 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 650 yuan per ton to 92,650 yuan per ton [16] - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene lithium production rising by 260 tons to 13,744 tons. December lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons [16] - The market is experiencing resource supply disturbances, with expectations of production recovery weakening, leading to price increases. Even in the off-season, prices may weaken, but downstream stocking intentions are expected to remain strong [16]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 短期政策利好驱动有限，资金交 投热情较弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡下跌。股市全市场成交额 1.75 万亿元，较上日成交额缩量 463 亿元。 近期股市成交量能缩量，主要是因为市场驱动力量表现不足，资金交投热情回落。中央经济工作会议 延续 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开、TL 低开，早盘震荡上行，午后略有回落，全天波 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 动幅度较小，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 1353 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1173 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 180 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.45%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.44%。 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlines China's economic performance and strategic priorities, emphasizing resilience and innovation in the face of challenges, while setting a roadmap for future growth and stability. Economic Performance and Outlook - The overall economic operation is stable with expected growth around 5% for the year, positioning China among the leading global economies, with a GDP target of approximately 140 trillion yuan [2] - Employment remains stable, with significant growth in foreign trade and diversified exports [2] - The construction of a modern industrial system is progressing, with advancements in technology and innovation, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [2] - Reforms and opening-up measures are advancing, with a focus on building a unified national market and addressing "involution" in competition [2] - Positive progress in risk mitigation in key areas, including local government debt management and the completion of housing projects [2] - Social welfare policies, such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education, are being implemented to enhance public welfare [2] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The conference acknowledges ongoing economic challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3] - Despite these challenges, China's long-term economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by its socialist system, large market, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources [3] - The government plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, to support economic recovery [4][5] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels while addressing local fiscal challenges and ensuring sustainable finances [5][6] - Emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure to support major national strategies and enhance social welfare [6][7] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, maintaining liquidity, and supporting key sectors like technology and small enterprises [8][9] - A flexible approach to monetary tools will be adopted to align financing growth with economic and price expectations [8][9] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment, particularly in services and infrastructure [9][10] - The government aims to enhance consumer purchasing power and support new consumption models while increasing investment in social welfare and urban renewal projects [10] Regional Development and Coordination - The conference emphasizes the importance of regional coordination in development, with specific strategies for enhancing the roles of major economic provinces [19][20] - Plans include tailored support for local economies and promoting urban-rural integration [19][20] Green Transition and Employment - The government is committed to a green transition, with initiatives aimed at carbon peak and neutrality, alongside promoting green industries [21][22] - Employment policies will focus on stabilizing job markets, particularly for key demographics like graduates and migrant workers, while enhancing vocational training [23][24] Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market is under scrutiny, with measures to stabilize housing prices and promote high-quality development [26][27] - Strategies include addressing supply-demand dynamics and supporting real estate companies in transitioning to new business models [27][28]

二是灵活高效运用多种货币政策工具。货币政策工具箱既包括降准降息，也包括其他短期、中期、长期 流动性投放工具。明年将灵活搭配、高效运用多种工具，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增 长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 三是加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续用好用活结构性货币政策工具，着力 畅通货币政策传导机制，持续提升金融服务实体经济的质效。同时，要继续平衡好内外部关系，保持人 民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。（新华社） 中央财办有关负责同志表示，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 一是把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，这是今年会议的新提法。货币政策 将加强前瞻性、科学性调节，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进社会综合融资成本低 位运行，与其他政策举措形成合力，努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升等目标。 ...

中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神。明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。一是把 促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，这是今年会议的新提法。货币政策将加强 前瞻性、科学性调节，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进社会综合融资成本低位运 行，与其他政策举措形成合力，努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升等目标。二是灵活高效运用多种货币 政策工具。货币政策工具箱既包括降准降息，也包括其他短期、中期、长期流动性投放工具。明年将灵 活搭配、高效运用多种工具，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 配。三是加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续用好用活结构性货币政策工具， 着力畅通货币政策传导机制，持续提升金融服务实体经济的质效。同时，要继续平衡好内外部关系，保 持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体 保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推 进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。（新华社） ...

政策力度上，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间，也 为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。重视解决地方财政困难，建立健全增收节支机制，增强地 方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性。优化财政支出结构，强化国家重大战略财力保障，推动更多资金资 源投资于人。统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。同时，严肃财经纪律，坚持 党政机关过紧日子。 实施时机上，主动靠前发力。合理加快资金下达拨付，推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 （原标题：聚焦中央经济工作会议|中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神） 人民财讯12月16日电，当前经济形势怎么看？"十五五"新开局重点任务如何推进？聚焦舆论关注的热点 问题，中央财办有关负责同志会后第一时间接受中央主要媒体采访，深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。 问：明年继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，财政政策和货币政策如何发力？ 答：今年我国首次实施更加积极的财政政策，时隔14年再次实施适度宽松的货币政策，为推动经济持续 回升向好发挥了重要作用。根据中央经济工作会议部署，明年我国继续实施更加积 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the key points from the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, which is a new emphasis for this year's conference [1] - There will be a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - The policy toolbox will include short-term, medium-term, and long-term liquidity injection tools to ensure a comprehensive approach to monetary policy [1] Group 2: Support for Key Areas - There will be increased support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises as key focus areas [1] - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized effectively to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and improve financial services for the real economy [1] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 71% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a stable domestic demand environment [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The article notes a recent slowdown in consumption and investment growth, highlighting the need for continued efforts to boost domestic demand [1] - The stability of the RMB exchange rate will be maintained at a reasonable and balanced level while balancing internal and external relationships [1]

2025年中央经济工作会议，定调明年经济工作 I GA HIYESI'I C 今年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平 同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全 国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏,坚 定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量 发展,统筹国内国际两个大局,实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策,经济社会 发展主要目标将顺利完成。我国经济 顶压前行、向新向优发展,现代化产 业体系建设持续推进,改革开放迈出 新步伐,重点领域风险化解取得积极 进展,民生保障更加有力。过去5年, 我们有效应对各种冲击挑战,推动党 和国家事业取得新的重大成就,"十 四五"即将圆满收官,第二个百年奋 斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 做好新形势下经济工作 新的认识和体会 必须 充分挖掘经济潜能 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新 并举 业 须 做到既"放得活"又"管 得好" 必须 坚持投资于物和投资于人 坚密结合 要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保 持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支 出总量,加强财政科学管理,优化财 政支出结构,规范税收优惠、财政补 贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难,兜 牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪 律,坚持党政机关过紧日子 要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把 促进 ...

防范化解重点领域的金融风险，维护金融稳定。助力在宏观层面把握好经济增长、经济结构调整和金融 风险防范之间的动态平衡，推动经济高质量发展，夯实金融市场平稳运行和微观单体金融机构稳健经营 的根基。加强金融风险监测、评估、预警体系建设。坚定维护金融市场平稳运行，综合平衡防范金融市 场的道德风险，建立在特定情景下向非银金融机构提供流动性的机制性安排。坚定推进金融支持融资平 台债务风险化解工作。坚持市场化、法治化原则，积极稳妥处置中小金融机构风险。做好房地产金融宏 观审慎管理。 稳步推进金融高水平开放，维护国家金融安全。践行全球治理倡议，积极参与和推进全球金融治理改革 完善。务实开展金融外交和多双边货币金融合作。推进人民币国际化。持续建设和发展多渠道、广覆盖 的人民币跨境支付体系。稳步发展数字人民币。 本报北京12月15日电（记者 徐佩玉）记者日前从中国人民银行获悉，明年，中国人民银行将继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，着力扩大内 需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货 币金融环境。 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策， ...