Group 1 - The Central Bank of Chile forecasts a deflation of -0.2% for June inflation, with a 12-month inflation expectation of 3.2% [1] - The benchmark interest rate is expected to reach 4.75% in July and is projected to decline to 4.3% within the next 12 months [1]

美国非农数据是全球金融市场中的一个重要经济指标，通常于每个月的首周星期五公布，对市场的影响 深远，尤其是对现货黄金市场来说，非农数据的发布常常引发黄金价格的剧烈波动。因此，了解非农数 据及其与黄金价格之间的关联性，是投资者应对非农行情的必修课。本文中，领峰环球将详细介绍非农 数据的知识点，分析其与黄金价格的关系，并为投资者提供捕捉非农行情的实用建议。 一、非农数据是什么？ 非农数据是美国劳工部每月发布的一项重要经济报告，主要反映了美国境内非农业行业的新增就业人 数。具体来说，它包含了全美就业市场的综合表现，排除了政府部门、农业和自营职业的影响。因此， 非农数据对于衡量美国经济健康状况具有重要的参考价值。 非农数据的核心内容包括： 1.新增就业人数：指的是一个月内新增的非农业就业岗位数量。 理解非农数据与黄金价格之间的关系后，投资者可以通过以下几种方式把握非农期间的黄金交易机会。 2.失业率：反映劳动力市场中失业人口的比例。 3.平均小时工资：衡量劳动力市场中工资变化的趋势。 这些数据不仅反映了美国经济的就业情况，还能够揭示出潜在的经济增长动能，对金融市场具有重大影 响。投资者登录领峰环球官网、领峰环球官方AP ...

【白银行情解析】 根据日线图，从技术面来看，白银走势偏向下行，交易者仍然保持谨慎。目前银价最新交投于36.31美 元/盎司，跌幅0.82%，最高上探37.21美元/盎司，最低触及36.34美元/盎司。今日上方阻力位为37.40- 37.50，下方支撑位为35.20-35.30. 一方面，降息降低持有白银的机会成本，利好银价；另一方面，如果降息过快或关税推高通胀，未来通 胀预期可能升温，从而进一步支撑白银价格。 然而，Cieszynski警告，过早降息可能引发通胀反弹，历史上类似情境下，美联储的宽松政策往往导致 经济过热，这对白银既是机遇也是挑战。短期内，市场对降息的预期可能引发金价的波动，但长期来 看，美联储的宽松倾向将为白银提供支撑。 周一(7月7日)欧市盘中，国际白银仍处震荡格局，白银价格最新交投于36.61美元/盎司，跌幅0.82%，最 高上探37.21美元/盎司，最低触及36.34美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 当前，市场对美联储降息的预期呈现分化。SIA财富管理首席市场策略师Colin Cieszynski指出，美联储 正处于两难境地：通胀已有所回落，理论上为降息提供了空间，但美国经济依然强劲，6月新增 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight declines on July 7, with market pressures leading to expectations of further drops, while gold prices also faced downward pressure due to anticipated declines [1] - The U.S. stock market reached record highs, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, and a strong employment report dampening hopes for interest rate cuts this month [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term easing [1] - Recent U.S. fiscal policy developments, including a tax cut and spending bill, are projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - Tariffs announced in April are set to be reinstated on August 1 for countries without trade agreements with the Trump administration, potentially impacting gold prices [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis points of easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even July due to political pressures [2] - The dual impact of rate cuts on gold prices is noted, where lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding gold, but rapid cuts could lead to inflationary pressures [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to changing rate cut expectations, while long-term support is expected from the Fed's easing stance [2] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [6] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [6] - Technical indicators for silver suggest a cautious trading environment, with recommendations for light positions and careful stop-loss settings [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions around $36.90 with a stop-loss at $37.30 and a take-profit target between $36.00 and $35.90 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - US economic data improved, but tariff risks are approaching. Optimism about the US economic outlook increased, driving up the US stock market, while European stocks fell due to China's anti - dumping duties on EU brandy. Market expectations for interest rate cuts decreased, and there were various developments in trade negotiations and fiscal policies [1][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Markets**: US stocks rose, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq up 1.72%, 2.30%, and 1.62% respectively. European, Japanese, and South Korean stocks fell. The decline of European stocks was due to China's anti - dumping duties on EU brandy [1][10]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar fluctuated and slightly declined, with the dollar index down 0.28%. The euro, yen, and RMB appreciated against the US dollar [10]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields rose. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose 15BP and 6BP respectively, as market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled [11]. - **Commodities**: Oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 3.0%. Gold slightly declined, with COMEX gold down 0.3% [11]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed Chairman Powell remained neutral, while other officials were hawkish. Market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled significantly, with the expected number of cuts this year dropping from 3 to 2 [2][27]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade Negotiations**: The US and Vietnam reached an agreement. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the US and a 40% tariff on transshipment goods. The US hopes to open the Vietnamese market [3][32]. - **"Big and Beautiful" Act**: Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, raising the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion. It is expected to increase the US deficit by nearly $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3][32]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - Bloomberg's median forecast shows that the US recession probability is 37.5% (40% a month ago), and the eurozone recession probability is 30%. The economic activities in the US and Germany cooled [39][41]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims decreased to 233,000, lower than expected and lower than the same period in 2024. The number of continuous unemployment benefit recipients remained flat [46]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales rebounded, airport security checks decreased, and railway transportation increased. Mortgage rates slightly decreased, and real - estate market activities slightly picked up [51]. 3.4 Production - The US production side remained more prosperous than the same period last year, with high utilization rates of crude steel and refinery capacities [55]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates continued to decline. The export demand from Chinese ports in Ningbo and Shanghai also decreased [57][59]. 3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices fell, but inflation expectations in the swap market rose [61]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure decreased, and credit spreads narrowed [64]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - The suspension period of "reciprocal tariffs" expires, and the Fed will release the minutes of the June FOMC meeting [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Market analysis: In the second half of 2025, precious metal prices are expected to show a pattern of rising after consolidation. From July to August, gold prices will mostly consolidate due to the Fed's internal differences on future interest rate paths and Powell's cautious attitude towards rate cuts. After September, with the increase in rate cut expectations and the impact of tariffs on inflation, gold prices are expected to strengthen. Silver prices may attract some investment demand due to the relatively high gold-silver ratio. The Fed's attitude towards rate cuts is cautious and there are internal differences. The passage of the Genius Act and SLR adjustment in mid-late June will reduce the possibility of a sharp rise in US Treasury yields in the short term, but the continuous expansion of the US debt scale may accumulate more hidden risks. Although the Israel-Iran conflict once intensified, the impact on inflation expectations was not significant. The recent CPI and PCE data are stable, and the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet appeared. The market expects at least one rate cut this year. In the long run, Trump's radical fiscal policy may require monetary easing. If Powell is replaced, rate cuts may accelerate. The eurozone economy is performing better than the US, and the US dollar may show a volatile and weak pattern in the future. In the first half of 2025, geopolitical factors did not cause a significant increase in inflation expectations, but Trump's tariff policies affected the US dollar's credit and pushed up gold prices. Gold remains an effective investment to deal with uncertainty [6]. - Strategy: In the second half of 2025, precious metal prices will first consolidate and then rise. From July to August, gold prices will consolidate, and after September, they are expected to strengthen. For gold, buy in batches at 750 - 760 yuan/gram and take profit at around 870 yuan/gram, with a stop-loss at 710 yuan/gram. For silver, buy in batches at 8,750 - 8,800 yuan/kg with a stop-loss at 8,550 yuan/kg. The option strategy for gold is to go long on the calendar spread [10]. Summary by Directory I. Summary of Central Bank Dynamics and Bond Market Conditions - **Global central banks slow down rate cuts but are generally worried about economic prospects**: The Fed's Powell is cautious about rate cuts, while the eurozone is more positive. Recently, the eurozone, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates, but central banks are cautious about future rate adjustments. Major central banks are worried about future economic prospects due to complex geopolitical factors and Trump's changing tariff policies [17]. - **The global bond market fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. Pay attention to the liquidity risk of US Treasuries around X-day**: In May, the US sovereign credit rating was downgraded, and the auctions of US and Japanese long-term government bonds had weak demand, leading to a surge in yields. The rise in eurozone government bond yields was not as obvious as that in the US because the eurozone's debt structure is healthier. Japan's long-term government bond yields rose due to structural improvements in its economic fundamentals. The US is facing relatively large debt risks. Although the current market liquidity is relatively loose, the liquidity risk needs to be continuously monitored. The speculative positions of US Treasuries are starting to decline, which may challenge the auction and liquidity of US Treasuries in the future [22][31]. - **The advancement of the Genius Act: Using stablecoins to maintain the US dollar's hegemony in the digital economy?**: On June 18, the US Senate approved the GENIUS Stablecoin Regulatory Act, which aims to strengthen the US dollar's global dominance in the digital economy. After the passage of the act, the market value of compliant stablecoins such as USDC and USDT soared. Stablecoins may attract some funds that were originally invested in gold, especially in emerging markets. However, if the reserve assets of stablecoins face high uncertainty, the credibility of stablecoins may be affected [36]. - **The Fed passes the SLR reform plan to seek more buyers for US Treasuries**: On June 25, the Fed passed the SLR reform proposal, which adjusts the capital requirements for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). The reform aims to balance financial stability and bank operational flexibility and provide clearer regulatory expectations. The adjustment of SLR will enable large banks to increase their allocation of US Treasuries. The US is taking various measures to increase the liquidity of US Treasuries, but the continuous expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale may accumulate greater hidden risks [42]. II. The US Dollar May Still Struggle to Maintain a Strong Long-Term Trend - **The probability of the Fed cutting rates in the future is still high**: Although Powell is cautious about rate cuts, Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut rates. The US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for four consecutive months, and the economic leading indicators are declining. The market expects at least one rate cut this year. In the long run, Trump's radical fiscal policy may require monetary easing, and if Powell is replaced, rate cuts may proceed more smoothly [48]. - **The improving economic outlook in non-US regions also puts pressure on the US dollar**: The eurozone's economic performance has been gradually strengthening compared to the US since 2025. The eurozone's PMI data has been approaching or exceeding that of the US, and the US is showing a weaker pattern in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index compared to non-US regions, which will make it difficult for the US dollar to maintain a continuous strong trend [56]. III. The So-Called Safe-Haven Demand Is Just a表象 of Inflation Expectations and Concerns about the US Dollar's Credit - **Why was the gold price stable during the intensification of the Israel-Iran conflict?**: During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold prices soared due to war-induced safe-haven demand and rising inflation. In contrast, during the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, the impact on inflation was limited, and there was no unified expectation of real interest rate changes, so the gold price remained stable. In the future, the possibility of a sharp rise in inflation in the short term is relatively low [59]. - **Global central banks' enthusiasm for allocating gold remains high, but US dollar assets are difficult to replace in the short term**: In June 2025, a survey by the World Gold Council showed that 76% of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase in the next five years, and 73% expect to reduce their US dollar asset allocation. Although US Treasuries are still the main choice for central bank asset allocation, central banks are increasing their gold allocation to hedge against the risks of the continuous expansion of US debt [62]. IV. Summary of Precious Metal Fundamentals - **The net long non-commercial positions of precious metals in the CFTC decreased significantly in the first half of the year**: In the first half of 2025, the net long speculative positions in gold in the CFTC decreased by 52,275 contracts (21.14%) to 195,004 contracts, while the net long speculative positions in silver increased by 25,058 contracts (66.14%) to 62,947 contracts. The global gold futures market open interest continues to reach new highs. The possibility of a significant decline in the gold market due to profit-taking by long speculators is relatively low [64]. - **The holdings of precious metal ETFs generally increased in the first half of the year**: In the first half of 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 80.01 tons to 952.53 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 450.64 tons to 14,826.61 tons. As of May 2025, the increase in global gold ETF holdings reached 322.4 tons, a new high in the past five years. In May, there was an outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, which corresponded to the consolidation of the gold price in May [69]. V. The Marginal Growth Rate of the Photovoltaic Industry May Slow Down, but the Long-Term Tight Supply Pattern of Silver Is Difficult to Change - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to peak between 2025 and 2026, and the growth trend will continue to be positive before that. The increase in silver production from mines will be relatively limited in the next few years, which may lead to a supply-demand contradiction in silver. In the next three years, the gold-silver ratio may decline towards a central level of around 65 - 70 times [77].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have garnered significant attention, particularly among investors and collectors [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a strong US dollar, changes in inflation expectations, and adjustments in capital flows due to shifts in Federal Reserve interest rate policies [2] - Investors are advised to adopt either a long-term holding strategy or a short-term trading approach based on their individual goals and risk tolerance [3] Price Analysis - On July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 771.12 RMB per gram, down by 4.69 RMB from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease of approximately 0.605% [1] - The price fluctuation range for that day was between 767.12 RMB per gram and 774.79 RMB per gram [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is typically negative; a stronger dollar often leads to lower gold prices [2] - Investors should closely monitor international economic conditions and monetary policy developments to understand potential impacts on gold prices [2] Investment Strategies - Long-term investors view gold as an effective hedge against inflation, making short-term price fluctuations less significant [3] - Case studies illustrate that frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities for price rebounds, emphasizing the importance of a well-defined investment strategy [3] Domestic vs. International Gold Pricing - The domestic gold market primarily prices gold in RMB per gram, while the international market uses USD per ounce, leading to price discrepancies influenced by exchange rates and market dynamics [5] - Domestic gold prices may lag behind international movements due to local tax policies and import/export restrictions [5] Gold Purity and Purchase Considerations - Gold purity is a critical factor in determining value, with common standards being 999 (99.9% purity) and 9999 (99.99% purity) [5] - Investors are advised to verify the purity of gold products and prefer certified products from recognized exchanges to ensure quality and authenticity [5] Rational Investment Approach - The recent price decline should not incite panic among investors, as price volatility is a normal market behavior [7] - Successful gold investment requires clear objectives, a sound strategy, and ongoing market monitoring to adjust plans as necessary [7]

欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫：通胀预期已得到良好锚定。 ...

智通财经7月4日电，欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫表示，通胀预期已得到良好锚定。 ...