风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 超级定投家主理人 以下文章来源于广发基金投顾 ，作者广发基金投顾 广发基金投顾 . 广发基金官方投顾订阅号，提供专业的市场观点、理财资讯、趣味课堂，陪伴你的基金投顾理财生活。 来源：雪球 从全球资产角度来看 ， 近期的市场动荡幅度 ， 比前几年都要大一些 。 今年以来 ， 我们大A的表现还是比较争气 ， 但前几年还是 " yyds " 的美股 ， 在最近的表现就有点让人感 到陌生了 ， 近2个月最大回撤超20% 。 数据来源 ： wind 类似地 ， 在去年表现很好的中国利率债 ， 今年以来的波动也有点大 。 当然 ， 对于长期投资的朋友来说 ， 可能只是收益的部分回吐而已 ， 但如果是在1月份 " 上车 " 的 、 偏 好稳健风格的投资者 ， 面对一个多月2.6%+的回撤 ， 可能还是有点肉痛了 。 数据来源 ： wind 由此 ， 我们可能会好奇一个问题 ： 从长期的角度来说 ， 全球这么多资产里 （ 例如各股市 、 债市 、 商品 、 现金 ） ， 谁才是真正的 " 避 险资产王牌选手 " ？ 接下来 ， 我们 ...

CFTC数据显示，截至4月29日当周，资产管理公司和杠杆基金的日元净多头头寸再度刷新历史纪录高位，净多 头寸规模达到17.9万手，表明投机者可能在押注日元升值，或利用日元作为避险资产的特性。而在4月1日当 周，日元净多头寸规模仅为12.1万手。 日元曾是华尔街资金最喜欢的做空对象之一，如今却成首选做多目标。 最新统计显示，日元净多头头寸已经攀升至历史新高。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）统计显示，在4月 份，日元净多头寸规模，一个月飙升了5.8万手，创下历史最高水平达到17.9万手。 随着资金涌入，截至5月9日，4月以来日元汇率升值超3%。同时，日本主要股指已较4月的低点上涨超20%。 日元看涨头寸创下历史新高 美国资产遭抛售，提振市场避险需求，国际资金对日元的看涨程度达到了历史最高水平，日元兑美元已连续三 周上涨。CFTC统计显示，在4月份，日元净多头寸规模，一个月飙升了5.8万手，创下历史新高。 目前，多个投资机构上调日元预期。根据路透最新调查显示，超过55%的人对美元的避险地位表示担忧，这一 比例较4月调查时的约三分之一大幅上升。瑞穗证券在最新的报告中表示，将年末美元兑日元预期下调至133。 野村证券 ...

黄金市场近期的强劲表现引发了全球投资者的高度关注。世界黄金协会的最新数据显示，上月全球黄金ETF的资金流入达到了自2022年3月以来的最强劲水 平，推动全球黄金ETF的资产管理规模达到3790亿美元，当月增长了10%。ETO交易平台认为这一显著的资金流入不仅反映了市场对黄金的强烈需求，也揭 示了当前全球经济和金融环境下的投资者心态。 金价的持续飙升是推动黄金ETF资产管理规模增长的重要因素。在全球经济不确定性增加、地缘政治紧张局势升级以及市场波动加剧的背景下，黄金作为一 种传统的避险资产，其吸引力显著增强。投资者纷纷将资金投入黄金市场，以对冲风险并保护资产价值。此外，全球所有市场的黄金交易量均大幅上升，显 示出市场活跃度的显著提升。 从地区分布来看，黄金市场的资金流向呈现出明显的差异。亚洲地区资金流入激增，成为全球黄金市场增长的重要推动力量。这一现象可能与亚洲经济的复 苏、投资者对黄金的长期价值认知以及地区性避险需求的增加有关。亚洲市场对黄金的需求一直较为旺盛，尤其是在中国和印度等主要经济体，黄金被视为 财富的象征和重要的投资工具。随着经济的逐步回暖，亚洲投资者对黄金的信心进一步增强，推动了资金的大量流入。 ...

独立分析师罗斯·诺曼（Ross Norman）表示："黄金价格的夸张波动表明，一方面，经济不确定性引发 了强劲的买入；另一方面，一些人将高价格视为获利了结的机会，因此出现了强劲的卖出。" "市场特别关注可能达成的中美贸易协议……同时，人们也对印巴危机感到担忧。" 据外媒报道，周五，黄金价格上涨，并有望实现周涨幅，受到美元走弱和持续地缘政治紧张局势的支 撑，而市场焦点仍集中在本周末的中美贸易谈判上。 现货黄金上涨0.7%，至每盎司3326.99美元。本周迄今，该金属已上涨2.5%。美国黄金期货上涨0.7%， 至3328.10美元。 美元指数下跌0.3%，使黄金对其他货币持有者更具吸引力。 在地缘政治方面，印度军队表示，周四晚至周五凌晨，巴基斯坦武装部队使用无人机和其他弹药对印度 西部边境发动了多次袭击。 此外，当天晚些时候，多名美国联邦储备官员将发表讲话，可能会进一步提供有关经济和央行政策路径 的见解。 在美国宣布与英国达成协议以及即将与中国举行贸易谈判之后，全球贸易谈判取得进展，这在最近几天 缓解了对避险资产的需求。然而，市场观察人士表示，投资者对英国协议的范围有限感到警惕。瑞士信 贷银行高级分析师伊佩克·奥 ...

而 在 今 天 稍 早 前 ， 比 特 币 持 续 走 高 ， 自 2 0 2 5 年 2 月 以 来 首 次 突 破 1 0 万 美 元 。 截 至 北 京 时 间 5 月 9 日 1 6 : 4 0，比特币报1 0 3 3 0 8美元， 2 4小时涨超4% 。 狗狗币2 4小时涨幅近1 4%。 作 者丨赖镇桃 编 辑丨李莹亮 刘雪莹 5月9日，以太坊日内涨幅扩大，截至9日1 6 : 3 6，过去2 4个小时内上涨超2 6%。 Ha s hKe y Gr o u p首席分析师丁肇飞向2 1世纪经济报道记者分析："更深层次来看， 全球去美元化进 程为比特币提供了长期动能。 美元占全球外汇储备比例从6 6%降至5 8%，新兴市场央行增持黄金， 2 0 2 4年全球储备达4 9 7 4吨。这种宏观环境下， 而比特币作为'数字黄金'的替代性需求激增。 " 不少人把比特币比作"数字黄金"，是因为这一加密货币有着两个关键特征——分散性质，以及最重 要的是供应有限。IG Fr a n c e的首席市场分析师Al e x a n d r e Ba r a d e z指出，我们已经知道比特币的总 量不超过2 1 0 0万枚， ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is undergoing unprecedented changes, with gold's value as a traditional safe-haven asset becoming increasingly prominent [1] - By 2025, the gold market is expected to enter a significant bull market, attracting considerable investor interest due to geopolitical tensions, rising inflation, and uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Recent strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, has raised concerns about an "overheated" economy and policy lag effects, adding volatility to macroeconomic data and creating new opportunities in the gold market [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meetings serve as a barometer for the gold market, with frequent fluctuations in interest rate expectations leading to significant price volatility for gold [3] - Weak retail market conditions reflect gold's unique appeal, as investors seek stable and appreciating investment channels amid insufficient consumer demand [3] - Experts suggest that uneven global economic recovery, accumulating debt risks, and increased volatility in digital currencies will provide strong support for the gold market [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical issues, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and tensions between India and Pakistan, amplify gold price fluctuations, driving up investor demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold price target to $3,700, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching $4,500, highlighting the strategic value of gold in a stagflation environment [3] - Major institutions like UBS and Morgan Stanley emphasize gold's strategic allocation value in the current international market context [3] Group 4 - To assist investors in entering the gold market, Wan Zhou Gold Industry has launched a promotional activity offering up to $30,000 in bonuses, significantly enhancing capital leverage [5] - The platform provides a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing investors to profit from both rising and falling gold prices without worrying about market trends [5] - Wan Zhou Gold Industry, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers low spreads starting at $20 per lot and a zero-commission policy, along with a $200,000 simulated trading benefit for new investors [5] Group 5 - Wan Zhou Gold Industry employs an internationally accepted spread pricing model, eliminating traditional commission structures to help investors control costs during trading [7] - The platform features a reliable negative balance protection mechanism, safeguarding investors from larger losses during extreme market fluctuations [7] - With 24/7 online service, Wan Zhou Gold Industry addresses investor inquiries regarding account opening and trading processes, creating a robust trading environment [7]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $32.27, with a recent price of $32.50, reflecting a 0.14% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $32.57, while the lowest was $32.20, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] Group 2 - The conflict between India and Pakistan has escalated, with India claiming to have struck Pakistan's air defense systems, while Pakistan reported downing 29 Indian drones [2] - The geopolitical tensions have initially driven precious metal prices higher, but market expectations of a controlled situation have reduced the safe-haven premium [2] - Analyst Ole Hansen warns of a potential "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario in the precious metals market, suggesting a cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - Silver prices faced resistance during a recent rebound and are approaching support levels, indicating that the market direction may not have fundamentally changed [3] - The ZZ indicator did not show a top signal during the rebound, suggesting that further observation is needed for potential price movements [3] - The focus will be on whether silver can break through the key high points encountered during the previous rebound [3]

美银全球研究全球大宗商品研究团队在其报告中，就黄金价格走势给出了更为细致的研判。基于其专业 的供需模型分析，该团队认为，从理论层面而言，黄金价格具备轻松突破 3000 美元 / 盎司关口的潜 力。模型数据显示，在当前全球经济环境下，黄金的供需关系正逐渐向供不应求倾斜，这为金价上涨提 供了基本面支撑。一方面，随着全球央行纷纷采取宽松货币政策，货币供应量增加，纸币贬值预期增 强，使得黄金作为硬通货的吸引力进一步提升;另一方面，黄金矿产资源的开采难度不断加大，新增供 给有限，而工业需求与投资需求却在稳步增长，供需缺口的扩大为金价上行提供了动力。 但该团队同时指出，即便金价具备上行潜力，在当前市场环境下，短期内也难以突破 3500 美元 / 盎司 的高位，尤其是在贸易争端出现实质性缓解的情况下。贸易局势缓和会促使全球经济增长预期改善，投 资者风险偏好回升，资金将从避险资产流向风险资产，黄金价格的上涨动能会因此减弱。此外，黄金价 美联储的警告并非空穴来风。关税政策的实施与变动，严重干扰了全球供应链的稳定运行，增加了企业 生产成本与经营风险，进而对宏观经济增长前景蒙上阴影。在这种充满不确定性的环境下，投资者纷纷 将目光转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked intense discussions about future price movements, with predictions ranging from a rise of 2000 RMB per gram to a drop of 500 RMB per gram [1] Group 1: International Gold Market Trends - The long-term trend of international gold prices has been upward, driven by global economic uncertainties that make gold a preferred safe-haven asset [3] - Central banks have been significant players in the gold market, with record-high purchases aimed at enhancing financial stability and responding to global economic conditions [3][5] Group 2: Domestic Gold Price Predictions - Some analysts predict that by early 2026, gold prices could reach 4500 USD per ounce, translating to approximately 2500 RMB per gram in the domestic market [5][9] - Current domestic gold prices hover around 1000 RMB per gram, indicating a substantial gap from the predicted target of 2000 RMB per gram [5][11] Group 3: Market Sensitivity and Influencing Factors - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are highly sensitive to market sentiment and policy changes, which can lead to significant price volatility [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertain U.S. economic policies continue to bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7][9] Group 4: Long-term Price Stability - Predictions suggest that by 2026, domestic gold prices will likely stabilize around 1500 RMB per gram, reflecting moderate adjustments in line with international gold prices [11] - The trend of de-dollarization and sustained central bank demand for gold are expected to support long-term price stability [9][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market is undergoing profound changes, with gold's value as a safe-haven asset becoming increasingly prominent [1] - A bullish trend in the gold market is expected to surge in 2025, attracting significant investor interest [1] - Geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are reigniting gold's status as the "king of safe-haven assets" [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, adding 177,000 jobs, which briefly boosted the dollar but raised concerns about economic overheating and policy lag [3] - The volatility in non-farm data adds complexity and opportunities to the gold market [3] - The Federal Reserve's meetings serve as a "weather vane" for the gold market, with fluctuating interest rate expectations driving gold's demand [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and tensions between India and Pakistan amplify gold's price volatility [4] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs have raised their 2025 gold price target to $3,700, with extreme scenarios suggesting it could reach $4,500 [4] - The strategic value of gold in a stagflation environment is emphasized by firms like UBS and Morgan Stanley [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to choose professional platforms to capitalize on the multi-dimensional opportunities in the gold market [6] - Wanzo Gold's promotional offerings, including a $30,000 bonus for new customers, enhance leverage and trading flexibility [6] - The company provides a low-cost trading environment with spreads as low as $20 per contract and a zero-commission policy [6] Group 5: Risk Management and Support - Wanzo Gold offers a reliable negative balance protection mechanism to safeguard investors' accounts during extreme market fluctuations [7] - The platform provides 24/7 online support to assist investors with account and trading inquiries [7] Group 6: Strategic Positioning - The current gold market is characterized by "high volatility and high opportunity," creating rich trading prospects for investors [10] - Wanzo Gold's comprehensive trading platform supports flexible operations regardless of market direction, utilizing the MT5 international trading system [9] - The company emphasizes a dual protection system for fund security and service experience, ensuring client funds are managed separately from operational funds [9]