以下文章来源于二马由之 ，作者二马由之 用逻辑讲投资 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：二马由之 来源：雪球 前天和一位老同事聊个人所得税问题 ， 同事收入比较高 ， 每年给社会贡献很大 ， 属于让人肉疼的那种 。 我建议他尝试用一下个人养老金的额度 ， 虽然绝对金额有限 ， 但是苍蝇腿也是肉 。 但是同事担心少交了 一点税 ， 万一本金受损 ， 就划不来了 。 同事21年初入市 ， 前一段刚刚保本出了 。 面对资本市场 ， 他 有深深的不安 。 二马由之 . 最近我一直在看 红利指数 ， 我建议他看看红利低波指数相关基金 ， 这个指数长期收益好 ， 波动小 。 关 键是个人养老金的权益指数名单中有他 ， 看到市场规模最大 红利低波ETF (512890)的联接基金出了个人 养老金可投资的Y份额 ， 代码022951 ， 正好满足了大家的需求 。 今天和大家分享这个红利低波指数 。 | 指数回报与风险特征 (最新交易日:2025/03/27) ② | | --- | | Closed Commentable on Andrew - In ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a clear investment plan and understanding three fundamental questions: maximum loss tolerance, expected annual return, and investment duration. These questions serve as the foundation for successful investing and help avoid blind chasing of market trends [1][18]. Group 1: Maximum Loss Tolerance - Understanding maximum loss tolerance is crucial for risk management, which is the cornerstone of investing. Investors often focus on potential gains without considering how much loss they can endure [2][8]. - Risk tolerance directly influences investment strategy and asset allocation. Different individuals have varying levels of comfort with market fluctuations based on their financial situations and psychological resilience [8][9]. - Establishing a clear maximum loss threshold provides a safety net for investors, allowing them to make informed asset choices and weight allocations without succumbing to panic during market downturns [8][9]. Group 2: Expected Annual Return - Setting realistic return expectations is essential and should be based on the investor's risk tolerance. Many investors aim for unrealistic returns without understanding the associated risks [9][12]. - Historical data suggests that a balanced asset allocation can yield reasonable returns with manageable volatility. For instance, a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds has shown an annualized return of approximately 7.8% over five years with a volatility of 7.3% [12][13]. - Unrealistic return expectations can lead to disappointment and frequent portfolio adjustments, ultimately resulting in suboptimal outcomes. Aligning return goals with risk tolerance is vital for effective investment planning [13][19]. Group 3: Investment Duration - The investment horizon significantly impacts risk and return dynamics. Longer investment periods generally allow for better risk smoothing and the benefits of compounding [14][17]. - Short-term investments are often subject to high volatility, while long-term holdings tend to stabilize returns. For example, the probability of positive returns on the CSI 300 index increases from 60% over one year to nearly 100% over ten years [17]. - Understanding the investment timeline helps avoid liquidity issues and ensures that investors are not forced to liquidate positions prematurely, which can hinder potential gains [17][18]. Group 4: Application to Gold Investment - The article applies the three fundamental questions to the current inquiry about investing in gold. It suggests that if an investor can tolerate a maximum loss of 10%, gold may not be suitable for a significant allocation due to its historical volatility [21]. - Expected annual returns from gold are projected at 5%-6%, making it challenging to achieve an 8%-10% return solely from gold investments. Instead, gold should be part of a diversified portfolio [21][22]. - A proposed investment strategy for a hypothetical investor with a medium risk tolerance includes a 45% allocation to stocks, 50% to bonds, and 5% to commodities, including gold, to balance risk and return [21][32].

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.13% [2] - The total market turnover was 992.7 billion, a decrease of 160.1 billion compared to the previous day [2] - Over 2,700 stocks in the market saw an increase [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest gains included kitchen and bathroom appliances, robotics, wind power equipment, and automotive parts [3] - In contrast, the sectors with the largest declines were controllable nuclear fusion and marine engineering equipment [3] Group 3: Xiaomi SU7 Incident - Xiaomi's founder and CEO Lei Jun expressed deep sorrow over the tragic accident involving the Xiaomi SU7, which resulted in the deaths of three young women [5][8] - Xiaomi has established a special team to investigate the incident and is cooperating with the police to provide vehicle data [8][9] - The focus of the discussion has shifted to the battery issues related to the SU7, with customer service indicating that the vehicle can be equipped with either BYD's blade battery or CATL's battery, which are installed randomly [10] - CATL clarified that the battery used in the involved vehicle was not theirs [11] Group 4: Bond Market - The 30-year government bond ETF rose by 0.75% at the close [12] - The bond market is expected to see a potential easing of monetary policy, with possible "structural interest rate cuts" anticipated in the second quarter [14] - Recent trends indicate a recovery in the bond market, supported by the central bank's liquidity measures and improved market sentiment [14] Group 5: Robotics Sector - The robotics sector showed strong performance today, with humanoid robots gaining traction [15] - Companies like Jinggong Technology and Tianhe Magnetic Materials reached their daily limit up, while others like Zhaomin Technology and Dongtu Technology saw increases exceeding 10% [16] - The Guangdong province announced policies to promote innovation in the AI and robotics industry, indicating a positive outlook for the humanoid robotics market in China [18]

在今日爆发后，香港创新药指数年内涨幅超过恒生科技指数，创新药也成为港股市场表现最好板块之一。 从基本面上看，港股创新药近期拿下大订单，另外行业业绩出现回暖。3月25日默沙东以最高17.7亿美元的里程碑付款买下恒瑞医药的脂蛋白口服小 分子项目，并且机构预计，2025年三分之一的创新药公司有望开始盈利，在大品种纳入医保实现放量后，进入业绩释放大年。 长按即可参与 市场全天冲高回落，三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指涨0.38%，深成指跌0.01%，创业板指跌0.09%。 从板块方面来看，可控核聚变、创新药、中药、电力等板块涨幅居前，人形机器人、算力走弱。 沪深两市全天成交额1.13万亿，较上个交易日缩量893亿，全市场超3800只个股上涨。 01 春天来了？创新药暴涨！ 今日开盘后港股通创新药ETF盘中一度涨超8%，康方生物涨超14%，石药集团上涨12.55%，荣昌生物上涨10.55%。 估值层面上，港股通创新药指数2月17日估值高达64倍，但伴随成份股强劲2024年年报的发布，截至3月31日估值已经大幅降低至25倍。即使经过大 幅的上涨，因为成份股盈利够强，港股创新药板块的估值仍然不贵，此外结合机构的医药公司业绩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investors in uncertain market conditions, particularly highlighting the historical context of inflation and market downturns, and introduces the concept of a "Permanent Portfolio" as a strategy for risk management and steady returns [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines due to uncertain tariff policies, with economic growth forecasts being downgraded and rising unemployment and inflation expectations, raising concerns about stagflation risks [2]. - Historical parallels are drawn to 1981, where high inflation and declining asset values led to a challenging investment environment, with the S&P 500 index falling by 5% and long-term government bonds dropping by 9% [2]. - The article notes that in 2022, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve led to severe market volatility, with the Nasdaq index plummeting by 33% and bond markets experiencing rare declines [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy proposed by Harry Browne involves dividing investments equally among stocks, long-term government bonds, cash, and gold, aiming to balance risk and returns [3][4]. - The core logic of the Permanent Portfolio is to diversify risk, balance assets, and maintain long-term holdings, acknowledging the limitations of market predictions [4]. - Historical data indicates that the Permanent Portfolio strategy has achieved an annualized return of approximately 7% over the past 30 years, with volatility controlled below 9% and maximum drawdowns typically under 15% [5]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a practical tool to replicate the Permanent Portfolio, helping investors diversify risk across three dimensions [6]. - The investment allocation includes stocks to capture economic growth, bonds for stability during downturns, gold for inflation hedging, and cash for flexibility [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of asset diversification beyond just stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, suggesting the use of funds and international markets to enhance portfolio resilience [10]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - The article presents a performance comparison of the Permanent Portfolio against traditional 60/40 portfolios and single market investments, highlighting its lower volatility and drawdown during market downturns [22][24]. - Over the past five years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 7.8% with a volatility of 7.3%, significantly lower than that of the A-share and U.S. stock markets [25][26]. - The Permanent Portfolio's maximum drawdown was limited to -9.2% during the market crash of 2022, showcasing its strong risk management capabilities [26].

以下文章来源于府库 ，作者府库 府库 . 规划投资理财，温暖幸福生活 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 府库 来源：雪球 在上周，看到兴证全球投顾做的一个调研报告，是与资产配置有关的，为了调研投资者对于多元资产配置的 认知和需求发起了，一共收到了5000多份问卷，针对调研结果，发布了这个报告。 看看这份"免费的午餐"，大家觉得味道如何？ 01 对资产配置的认可 从调研结果来看，大家觉得自己对于资产配置并不是一个非常了解的状态，但接近一半的人对于多元资产配 置的理念非常认可。同时在另外一张数据表中，有73.97%的人对于多元资产配置可以分散和降低风险的意义 是非常认同的。 认同分散和降低风险的价值，并认可多元资产配置，且基于当前的了解下，形成的投资组合是怎样的呢？ 02 多元资产的投资占比 从大家投资的海外金融资产占比中，能看到接近60%的投资者海外金融资产占比小于10%，只有10.48%的投 资者在海外金融资产的占比超过10%，从另外一个数据中，也有不少投资者在组合中没有配置黄金。 这个和我自己过往的感受很类似，我在很多年前就知道资产配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various asset classes in 2023, highlighting significant gains in certain sectors while noting declines in others, particularly in the US stock market. Group 1: Asset Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index has increased by 23.24% year-to-date, while gold prices have risen by 17.11% [2][3] - The A-share market has seen declines in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, with the latter down by 0.50% [2][3] - The US stock market has experienced notable declines, with the S&P 500 down by 5.11% and the Nasdaq 100 down by 8.24% [4] Group 2: Valuation Data - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the CSI 300 is 20.17, with historical maximum and minimum values of 59.01 and 13.03 respectively [6] - The PE ratio for the ChiNext Index stands at 36.58, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [6] Group 3: Market Strength Indicators - Market strength indicators have shown significant pullbacks, approaching oversold territory, suggesting potential for further declines if negative trends continue [9] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - Effective asset allocation involves diversifying investments across different asset classes to mitigate risk and enhance returns [10] - It is recommended to maintain an emergency fund covering 3 to 6 months of living expenses, while excess funds can be allocated to higher-risk investments like stocks and funds [10][11] - Regular reviews of asset allocation are advised to adjust for significant gains or losses in specific assets [11]

长按即可参与 A股三大指数今日集体下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.46%，深成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.15%，沪深 两市全天成交额1.22万亿，较上个交易日放量1026亿，个股跌多涨少，全市场超4000只个股下跌。 盘面上热点较为杂乱，黄金板块逆势走强，资金午后回流算力板块，杭钢股份涨停，一起来看今天 热点。 01 百亿上市公司暴雷！ 今天互联网金融概念股汇金科技一字20cm跌停，也一度冲上雪球热股榜第一！ | | | 雪矿拽股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股票 | | ETF | | | 热搜榜▼ | 飙升榜 | 热评榜 | 自选榜 | 组合热股榜 | | 发现热门股票 | | | | 1小时 24小时 | | 1 汇金科技 | | | -20.00% | 加自选 | | SZ300561 1.11万热度 | | | | | | 2 建设银行 | | | +1.06% | 已添加 | | SH601939 9912热度 | | | | | | | | 雪球热点 #四大行定增,财政部出资约5000亿# | | × | | 3 美的集团 | | | +3. ...

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：逸修1 来源：雪球 资本配置很考验CEO和CFO的能力，我很早以前对这块也没有过多思考，近些年的经历逐步意识 到重要性和理清楚里面的逻辑 该不该做回购分红应该是没有统一答案的，要看公司的经营状况和估值，但怎么去决策应该是有 一些客观标准的 一、资本配置 有四个方向： 1、经营业务 第一优先级，分深耕老业务、拓展新业务，前者是优先中的优先 2、投资（看企业类型和地位） 当核心业务不需再做过多投入就可状况，新业务又没啥机会时，可以考虑投资 但真投外部公司的前提还是自身能对有一些协同或赋能，不然可能不如把钱分给股东，股东自己 去投资 所以适合走这条路的企业是流量或生态型的平台，或处于产业链的链主环节的制造企业 回购分红的性价比和估值、机会成本、股息税有关： 比如一个公司在20倍的时候全年利润拿来回 购，相当于一年减少5%股本，相当于eps增长5.26%；如全年利润拿来分红，股息税为零，相当于 5%收益 但 是 你 拿 到 钱 后 可 去 投 其 它 收 益 更 高 的 机 会 ， 比 如 你 能 找 到 10% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the A-share ETF market, particularly focusing on "free cash flow" ETFs, which are expected to gain significant traction and popularity among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow ETFs - The launch of the E Fund's free cash flow ETF (code: 159222) on March 24, 2025, marks the beginning of a new investment trend, with management fees set at a competitive 0.15% plus 0.05% for custody [3]. - Historical performance of free cash flow ETFs shows a remarkable annualized return of over 20% from 2022 to 2024, significantly outperforming the broader market, which had returns of less than 8% [7]. - The National Index of Free Cash Flow (code: 980092) has unique compilation rules that exclude financial and real estate sectors, focusing on companies with sustainable operational capabilities [9]. Group 2: Index Compilation Rules - The index requires companies to have positive operating cash flow for the past three years, ensuring financial sustainability and avoiding companies with inflated profits [11]. - A stability assessment is conducted based on the past 12 quarters of ROE, eliminating the most volatile 10% of companies to enhance long-term stability [11]. - The final index is composed of the top 100 companies ranked by free cash flow rate, combining both quantity and quality of cash flow [11]. Group 3: Market Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the A-share market and the U.S. market, noting that free cash flow is a relatively new concept in both, with the first cash flow ETF in the U.S. launched in 2016 [15]. - The free cash flow factor is positioned as a valuable selection criterion, supported by academic research indicating its ability to generate excess returns, especially during market downturns [18]. - The industry distribution of the National Index of Free Cash Flow shows significant overweights in sectors like automotive, non-ferrous metals, and household appliances compared to other indices [20][22]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The article suggests that while the National Index of Free Cash Flow may perform well in the long term, it could underperform the overall A-share market in the short term, requiring a mindset geared towards gradual wealth accumulation [27][31]. - The index is viewed as a stabilizing component in a diversified investment portfolio, akin to high-dividend indices, providing lower volatility and superior long-term returns [31].