以下文章来源于楚团长聊聊天 ，作者楚团长 楚团长聊聊天 . 春来不是赚钱天，夏日炎炎正好眠。秋来蚊虫冬又冷，揣好钱包待明年。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 楚团长扯投资 来源：雪球 说来也是好笑 ， 特朗普2021年创立Truth Social （ 真实社交 ） 平台的初衷 ， 是因为其他主流平台承受 不住他的 " 胡言乱语 " ， 选择对其账号进行封禁 。 但当站在关税阴云波澜诡谲的当下 ， 本该贡献 " 真 相 " 的Truth Social平台 ， 反而在特朗普的高强度观点输出下 ， 批量制造了大量真伪难辨 、 朝令夕改的 矛盾内容 …… 如何应对特朗普对 " 真实Truth " 一词的重新解构 ？ 至少美股尚未找到答案 ， 否则美股各大权重指数也不 会在最近两周 ， 创出动辄±10%的宽幅波动 。 反观A股 ， 由于宏观政策路径相对清晰 ， 同时中央汇金等 " 类平准基金 " 平滑市场波动的意愿较为强烈 ， 所以A股投资者最近两周并未遭遇惊涛骇浪式的高波动冲击 ， 反而可以在流动性充裕的背景下 ， 寻找一 些可能的交易性机会 ...

可能你还在纠结AI前景好，还是机器人空间大，但是没想到宠物赛道竟然不声不响地创历史新高了！ 截至收盘 ， 沪指涨0.03% ， 深成指跌0.58% ， 创业板指跌0.68% 。 沪深两市全天成交额1.11万亿 ， 较上个交易日缩量1207亿 。 板块方面 ， PEEK材料 、 电力 、 宠物经济 、 银行等板块涨幅居前 ， 次新股 、 软件开发 、 华为昇腾 、 算力等板块跌幅居前 。 其中，"宠物双雄" 乖宝宠物、中宠股份双双爆发，股价均创历史新高 。 01 宠物双雄，历史新高 宠物经济板块今天表现亮眼，天元宠物20%涨停，乖宝宠物涨超15%，路斯股份、科拓生物涨超10%，中宠股份涨停。 其中 乖宝宠物、中宠股份今天股价均创历史新高。 | 中房股份 | | | --- | --- | | 002891 已收盘04-24 15:04:15 北京 | | | +4 +4.86 +10.00% | 7.33万人加自选 99 > | | | CN 融 通 L1 | | 开 47.82 量 11.97万手 | 总市值 157.66亿 | | 换 4.06% 额 6.22亿 | 市盈TTM 36.77 | 长按即可参与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing unpredictability of fundamental analysis in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, suggesting that traditional investment strategies may no longer be effective [3][4][5]. Group 1: Challenges to Fundamental Analysis - The predictability of corporate futures is severely eroded due to trade wars, tariff barriers, and supply chain restructuring, making financial reports increasingly difficult to forecast [4]. - If the Nasdaq enters a bear market, the era of easily outperforming global markets by betting on the U.S. stock market may come to an end [4]. - The golden age of globalization is over, and the dominance of single markets may be a thing of the past, leading to increased risks and a shift in investment philosophies [4][5]. Group 2: New Investment Paradigms - Investors must now consider new questions regarding which countries will maintain open capital markets, which currencies remain trustworthy, and how global commodity prices will reshape in a new trade landscape [7][8]. - The future of investing may require a greater reliance on geopolitical and historical understanding rather than solely on financial statements [8]. - Asset allocation is proposed as a new "lifebuoy" for investors, emphasizing diversification to manage risks associated with geopolitical shocks [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategies - The article references the "Permanent Portfolio" strategy, which aims to hedge against global uncertainties, suggesting that similar asset allocation strategies are relevant today [14]. - The importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation is highlighted, with a suggested simple portfolio of 25% in gold, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and cash [11][15]. - Momentum investing is discussed as a disciplined strategy that can yield excess returns across various asset classes, with a focus on maintaining positions in the strongest assets [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconception that long-term holding of investments guarantees returns, highlighting that many investors face losses despite prolonged holding periods due to various risks associated with individual stocks and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Individual Stocks and Long-Term Holding - The case of LeTV exemplifies the risks of long-term holding, where the company's market value plummeted from over 170 billion yuan in 2015 to delisting in 2020, resulting in significant losses for investors who believed in the company's potential [1]. - Individual stock investments carry substantial risks, including operational failures, industry cycle changes, and governance issues, which can lead to long-term holders ending up with nothing [1]. Group 2: Active Management Funds - Active management funds are not immune to poor performance; competitive market conditions and strategy failures can lead to long-term underperformance or even fund liquidation [2]. - Historical trends show that many funds that perform well during bull markets may struggle in subsequent periods, leading to prolonged losses for investors [2]. Group 3: Index Funds and Systemic Risks - Even index funds, which are generally considered safer due to diversification, can experience significant declines, as evidenced by the drop of the ChiNext Index from approximately 3100 points in early 2022 to 1800 points by the end of 2023, a decline of over 40% [2]. - Historical examples, such as the Dow Jones recovering only after 25 years post-1929 Great Depression and the Nikkei 225 not returning to its 1989 peak, illustrate that systemic market risks can lead to long-term stagnation [2]. Group 4: Limitations of Long-Term Holding - The inherent complexity and uncertainty of markets make long-term holding of single assets risky, as systemic risks from macroeconomic cycles, regulatory changes, and structural shifts can pressure asset prices [3]. - The concept of "long-term" is subjective, varying among investors, and emphasizing long-term holding without considering individual circumstances can be dangerous [3]. Group 5: Asset Allocation as a Solution - The article advocates for asset allocation as a more scientific investment approach, promoting diversification to mitigate risks, akin to the adage of not putting all eggs in one basket [3]. - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" emphasizes diversification across three dimensions: asset types (stocks, bonds, commodities), markets (domestic and international), and time (long-term dollar-cost averaging) to create a balanced investment portfolio [4][5]. Group 6: Investment Philosophy - The Snowball Three-Part Method aims to provide a systematic asset allocation strategy that can withstand various market conditions, focusing on building a robust portfolio rather than chasing short-term gains [5][6]. - Successful investing is framed as a disciplined approach to managing uncertainty and volatility, with an emphasis on scientific allocation rather than mere passive holding [5].

长按即可参与 市场全天震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指一度站上3300点。截至收盘，沪指涨0.25%，深成指跌0.36%，创业板指跌0.82%。 板块方面，物流、统一大市场概念股集体走强，华鹏飞等多股涨停。跨境支付概念股震荡走高，青岛金王等涨停。农药、化肥概念股表现活跃，中 农联合涨停。 沪深两市全天成交额1.09万亿，较上个交易日放量486亿。 01 昨日京东发布《致全体外卖骑手兄弟们的公开信》，指"竞对平台再次玩起'二选一'游戏"。昨晚，普遍被认为是京东"开炮"对象的美团，回应否认 存在"二选一"行为。 京东指责美团要求骑手"二选一"，并高调招聘十万全职骑手，出台多项举措，包括保障被"封杀"骑手的单量、扩大全职骑手招聘规模、优先安置骑 手家属就业等，展现出善待骑手的积极姿态。美团则多次辟谣，强调尊重骑手多平台接单权利，并称京东配送时效短、运力不足导致订单延迟。 这场舆论战背后，是双方对即时配送能力的角力——京东依托物流基因扩大全职骑手规模，美团则凭借庞大兼职网络维持时效优势。对几大互联网 巨头而言，在用户增长见顶、获客成本飙升的背景下，即时零售的业务是一块不可多得的"大蛋糕"，前有抖音后有京东，都有虎视眈 ...

长按即可参与 "只要我不卖，就割不到我"——这句话曾激励无数投资者，但也道出不少人心中的无奈。它背后 折射出一个朴素的投资信念：投资嘛，只要长期拿着，总会回本的。但当经历投资周期的洗礼 后，许多投资者却发现，财富并没有随着时间流逝而增长，长期的持有反而变成了长期的苦难。 为什么我们持有这么久，却拿不到时间的回报？长期投资是市场的谎言吗？今天我们来谈谈，为 什么持有并不等于回本，为什么长期的投资对于绝大多数人变成了痛苦的无奈之举。 乐视网的案例堪称经典。2015年，作为"互联网+"概念的领军企业，乐视网风光无限，市值一度突 破1700亿元。彼时，无数投资者坚信只要持有这样一家"伟大的公司"，财富自然水到渠成。然 而，当公司治理出现问题，当商业模式经不起考验，当财务造假曝光，一切美好愿景都化为泡 影。2020年，乐视网最终退市，众多坚持"长期持有"的投资者血本无归。个股投资风险巨大，经 营失败、行业周期变迁或公司治理问题可能让长期持有者一无所获。 不仅是个股如此，即使是集合了众多股票的主动管理型基金，也并非"永生"。市场竞争激烈，投 资策略失效、管理团队变动等因素都可能导致基金业绩长期低迷，甚至最终走向清盘。不管 ...

长按即可参与 A股三大指数今日延续反弹态势，截止收盘，沪指涨0.45%，深证成指涨1.27%，创业板指涨1.59%。沪深两市成交额超一万亿，较上周五放量逾 千亿。 盘面上，随着黄金价格一路走高，A股黄金板块掀涨停潮，带动小金属集体走高，此外消费、跨境电商概念涨幅居前，银行板块领跌两市。 一起来看今天的热点。 01 黄金期货突破800元/克， 创造历史记录！ 今日，上期所黄金期货主力合约突破800元/克关口，再创历史新高。 COMEX黄金也拿下重要整数关口3400美元/盎司。 A股黄金板块也持续攀升，赤峰黄金、 晓程科技、莱绅通灵、潮宏基、鹏欣资源强势涨停。 | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2170.13 (+191.40 +9.67%) | | | | 讨论 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关ETF | 资讯 | | 全部(12) 连板 | 关注度 | 主力资金 | 北向净流 | | 名称 | 最新价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率 ◆ | | 晓程科技 | 21.20 | +19.98% | 124.77 | | SZ300139 | | | | | 赤峰 ...

以下文章来源于莱言维语 ，作者莱言维语 莱言维语 . 不定期分享对于投资的一些碎碎念 长按即可参与 我倒不是反对上面这些观点 ， 相反我也认可这些说法 ， 只是实在不希望大家在一个标的已经起飞的时候去 各种找利好和解释 ， 难道这些理由在没涨之前就不存在么 ？ 不如问问自己是不是因为涨了才信 ， 跌了还 信么 ？ （ 比如现在的美股 ？ 之前涨的理由现在还信么 ） 本来不想再聊黄金这个标的的 ， 毕竟在它没有正式起飞前我已经聊得够多了 ， 无奈还是很多人问 ， 那就 借此机会展开聊聊最近的一些体会 。 巴菲特与黄金 对于黄金很多人印象最深的应该是巴菲特曾多次公开表达对黄金投资的负面看法 ， 拿DS整理了下时间轴 ， 大概有以下这些 ： 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 莱言维语 来源：雪球 最近A股的行情温吞水 ， 涨么涨不上去 ， 跌么跌不下来 ， 外围的美股也是萎靡不振看不到啥整体向上的 希望 ， 本来没啥好聊的 。 唯独黄金一枝独秀 ， 几乎没啥大的回调一路年初涨到现在 ， 即使从月线的角度看也是以一种很夸张的斜率 从23年一路涨到现在 。 如 ...

长按即可参与 A股三大指数今日延续反弹态势，截止收盘，沪指涨0.45%，深证成指涨1.27%，创业板指涨1.59%。沪深两市成交额超一万亿，较上周五放量逾 千亿。 盘面上，随着黄金价格一路走高，A股黄金板块掀涨停潮，带动小金属集体走高，此外消费、跨境电商概念涨幅居前，银行板块领跌两市。 一起来看今天的热点。 01 黄金期货突破800元/克， 创造历史记录！ 今日，上期所黄金期货主力合约突破800元/克关口，再创历史新高。 COMEX黄金也拿下重要整数关口3400美元/盎司。 A股黄金板块也持续攀升，赤峰黄金、 晓程科技、莱绅通灵、潮宏基、鹏欣资源强势涨停。 | | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2170.13 (+191.40 +9.67%) | | | | 讨论 | 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关ETF | 资讯 | | 全部(12) | 连板 | 关注度 | 主力资金 | 北向净流 | | 名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率 ◆ | | 晓程科技 | | 21.20 | +19.98% | 124.77 | | SZ3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation thinking for stable investment, contrasting it with trading-oriented thinking, and suggests that a well-structured investment portfolio can mitigate market emotional disturbances [3]. Group 1: Definition and Types of Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs aim to track the performance of specific commodity prices or indices, providing indirect participation in the commodity market without the need to manage physical assets [4]. - Commodity ETFs are primarily divided into two categories: 1. Physical-backed ETFs, which are transparent and have clear management mechanisms but incur storage costs and potential liquidity risks [6]. 2. Non-physical-backed ETFs, which invest in related futures contracts and derivatives, covering various commodities like energy and agricultural products [6][7]. Group 2: Classification of Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs can be classified based on their usage direction: 1. Precious metals, primarily gold and silver, dominate the commodity ETF market, with gold ETFs accounting for over 90% of the total scale [8]. 2. Energy-related ETFs track prices of crude oil and natural gas, with significant volatility observed in products like crude oil [8]. 3. Agricultural ETFs, such as soybean meal ETFs, are limited in the domestic market, indicating a need for more diverse products [8]. 4. Industrial metals ETFs, which include copper and aluminum, are also scarce, with only a few products available [8]. Group 3: Economic Relevance and Investment Considerations - Commodity prices are highly correlated with inflation indicators and are crucial for economic development; commodity ETFs can hedge against inflation, with gold being a primary choice [9]. - A diversified combination of different commodity ETFs can mitigate risks associated with single commodity price fluctuations and adapt to market changes across various economic cycles [9]. - Despite their benefits, commodity ETFs present higher investment difficulties compared to traditional stock and bond products, requiring substantial investment experience and awareness of unique risks [9].