Market Overview - Multiple stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Dubai stock market down 4.1% and the Abu Dhabi stock market down 2.1% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed volatility, while Japanese and Korean markets saw a significant reduction in gains [1] - Following a previous surge, the shipping index in Europe dropped sharply, with a decline of up to 6% after an initial increase of over 18% [4][6] Oil Market Dynamics - The main crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a sudden drop, with gains narrowing to around 6% after hitting the limit up [6] - Oil and gas equipment stocks in Hong Kong, such as Shandong Molong, experienced significant volatility, with a drop of 19% and a subsequent rise of 9% [6] Geopolitical Factors - Iranian military officials stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, despite tensions following an attack on a U.S. oil tanker by Iranian forces [7] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps indicated that they would control the passage rules in the Strait during wartime, threatening military action against vessels from the U.S., Israel, and European nations [7] Economic Implications for India - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses multiple economic pressures on India, particularly in energy, aviation, and remittances [10] - India, being the largest recipient of overseas remittances, could see a significant decline in funds from the Middle East, which constitutes about 3.5% of its GDP [10][11] - The rising international oil prices due to the conflict could inflate India's energy import bills, as approximately 85% of its crude oil is imported [11]

2026.03. 05 本文字数：1180，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 当地时间3月5日上午9点不到，当小马哥坐在迪拜飞往上海的阿联酋航空EK304的班机上，回想过 去几天的经历，让他唏嘘不已。 过去一夜他都没怎么睡，凌晨4点多就动身赶往迪拜机场，在经历了漫长的排队后，小马哥终于领到 了一张从迪拜到上海的机票，这太珍贵了。 这也是迪拜恢复通航后飞往上海的首架班次，而此时正有一些同胞还在当地焦急等待飞往国内的其他 航班。 | | | | DXB - PVG | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHANGHAI PVG | | EK304 | | 05MAR | | GATE | | GATE | FLIGHT | | | GATE | OPENS | CLOSES | DEPARTS | | | A23 | 0830 | 0855 | 0915 | | 小马哥告诉第一财经记者，当地时间3月4日晚间，他得到了阿联酋航空的官方消息，称第二天上午 从迪拜飞往上海的航班就将恢复。得到该消息后，小马哥立即联系了当地的华人驾驶员，准备出发动 身。驾驶员告知他最好尽 ...

Group 1 - Iran has identified several candidates for the Supreme Leader position, with an election expected to take place soon [1][2] - The Israeli Defense Forces have initiated a new wave of large-scale attacks on targets in Tehran, Iran [5] - An Iranian naval ship, the "Dena," encountered difficulties in the waters south of Sri Lanka, with 35 crew members rescued so far [5] Group 2 - The Iranian Assembly of Experts is responsible for electing, supervising, and dismissing the Supreme Leader, highlighting its significant political role [4] - The election process for the Supreme Leader is reportedly in its final stages, with security measures in place to ensure a smooth voting process [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the market may rebound and fluctuate. For soybeans, attention should be paid to the policy sentiment of the Two Sessions, and the futures price may rebound and fluctuate [1] - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0, indicating the price fluctuation of the main contracts on the day of the report [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4,623 yuan/ton during the day session, down 61 yuan (-1.30%), and 4,649 yuan at night, up 4 yuan (+0.09%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,836 yuan/ton during the day session, up 10 yuan (+0.35%), and 2,838 yuan at night, down 5 yuan (-0.18%); CBOT soybean 05 closed at 1,171.5 cents/bushel, up 9.75 cents (+0.84%); CBOT soybean meal 05 closed at 315.2 dollars/short ton, up 2.7 dollars (+0.86%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal price is 3,040 - 3,120 yuan/ton; in East China, it is 3,010 - 3,130 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 3,060 - 3,260 yuan/ton. The soybean purchase price in the Northeast is 4,580 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.75 million tons per day, and the inventory was 71.72 million tons per week [1] b. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with the benchmark contract higher, supported by the strength of international crude oil futures. The price fluctuated sharply, mainly due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East driving up the crude oil market. The expected meeting between Chinese and US officials this month alleviated concerns about the breakdown of Sino - US trade negotiations. However, concerns about China's demand for US soybeans and competition from Brazilian soybeans limited the upside of soybean prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating military actions by the U.S. against Iran, highlighting the deployment of U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling aircraft and the potential for increased military engagement in the region, which could impact global oil prices and supply chains [1][2]. Military Actions - Over 10 U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling aircraft have taken off from multiple bases in the U.S., crossing the Atlantic and European airspace, likely heading to the Middle East for military operations against Iran [1][2]. - President Trump indicated that the military actions are expected to last "4-5 weeks," but the U.S. has the capability to extend this duration significantly [2]. - Secretary of State Rubio stated that the most intense strikes are yet to come, focusing on destroying missile production, drone capabilities, and naval assets [2]. - The Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the deaths of 6 U.S. soldiers due to Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the region [2]. Oil Price Pressure - The article notes that the ongoing military tensions are exerting pressure on oil prices, with reports indicating that if the conflict disrupts oil transportation in the Middle East, India would be particularly vulnerable due to its weak reserves [5][6]. - India imports approximately 55% of its crude oil from the Middle East, with a daily import rate of 2.74 million barrels, the highest since the end of 2022 [6]. - The Indian oil minister stated that the country's reserves could only last for 74 days, but current inventory levels may only support 20 to 25 days of supply [6]. Insurance and Shipping Concerns - Several maritime insurance companies announced the cancellation of war insurance for vessels operating in the Gulf region starting March 5, which could further hinder shipping activities [5][6]. - The article highlights that Japan and South Korea heavily rely on Middle Eastern oil, with respective dependencies of about 95% and 70%, but their reserves can sustain them for 254 days and approximately 208 days [6].

Core Points - The Houthis reported that Israeli airstrikes in Yemen resulted in 35 deaths and 131 injuries on September 10 [1] - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes targeting Houthi military sites in Sana'a and other areas, involving over 10 aircraft and more than 30 bombs on 15 targets [1] - The airstrikes also affected civilian facilities, leading to significant human and property losses [1] Group 1 - The Israeli airstrikes were a response to Houthi attacks on Israel [1] - The Houthis launched multiple surface-to-air missiles, forcing some Israeli aircraft to withdraw without completing their mission [1] Group 2 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu demanded Qatar expel Hamas leaders or face Israeli action [1] - Qatar's Prime Minister criticized Netanyahu for escalating tensions in the Middle East and stated that Qatar is reassessing its role as a mediator in the Gaza conflict [1] - Qatar condemned Israel's military actions against Hamas leaders in Doha and communicated this to the UN Secretary-General and the UN Security Council [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefins are trading in a consolidating manner. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices are generally mediocre. The price fluctuations of the futures market follow costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and polyolefins are gradually consolidating to digest selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the supply contraction effect during the summer equipment maintenance [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7288, 7258, and 7284 respectively, with price changes of 10, 16, and - 7, and price change rates of 0.14%, 0.22%, and - 0.10%. The trading volumes were 58745, 525, and 307887, and the open interests were 116541, 2367, and 421336, with changes of 2138, 301, and - 11185 [2]. - For Polypropylene (PP), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7067, 7060, and 7067 respectively, with price changes of 13, 23, and - 2, and price change rates of 0.18%, 0.33%, and - 0.03%. The trading volumes were 30531, 454, and 229429, and the open interests were 106189, 4816, and 391848, with changes of 48, 320, and - 2340 [2]. - The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) are 30, - 26, - 4, and for PP are 7, - 7, 0 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - In the raw materials market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2400 yuan/ton, 6335 yuan/ton, 567 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6880 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the spot market, the current price ranges for LL in East China, North China, and South China are 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News and Evaluation - On July 14, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 66.98 US dollars per barrel, down 1.47 US dollars or 2.15% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.21 US dollars per barrel, down 1.15 US dollars or 1.63% from the previous trading day [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin market is in narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. The polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and the overall spot price performance is average. The disk price fluctuates more following the cost and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support weakens. Polyolefin is gradually digesting selling pressure through sideways consolidation. Attention should be paid to the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly based on crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season. The effectiveness of supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance should be focused on [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7243, 7221, and 7282 respectively, with changes of - 19, - 27, and - 2 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.37%, and - 0.03%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7042, 7032, and 7078 respectively, with changes of 1, - 9, and 4 and percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.13%, and 0.06%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 44517, 180, and 301296 respectively, and the open interests were 106805, 1584, and 448681 respectively, with changes of - 5366, 54, and 4549. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 28869, 598, and 210061 respectively, and the open interests were 107738, 3668, and 414623 respectively, with changes of - 330, 481, and 4430. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 22, - 61, and 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 14, - 36, and 22. For PP, the current spreads were 10, - 46, and 36 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, - 33, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 558 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2415 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - The strong US employment market supports the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are waiting for clarification on President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on multiple countries. It is expected that OPEC and its production - cut allies will further increase crude oil production in August, and international oil prices continue to decline cautiously. On July 4, 2025 (US Independence Day), there was no settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but electronic trading was normal. The last trading price of the August 2025 futures electronic disk was 66.50 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.75% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading range of 66.04 - 67.18 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 68.30 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 67.75 - 68.89 dollars [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Core Viewpoints - The short - term domestic macro expectations have increased, the market may trade the strong reality, the demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak, and the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series fluctuated narrowly, the finished product end was relatively weak, and the demand continued the off - season characteristics. The supply of iron ore showed a seasonal increase, but the carbon element gave way to the iron element, the blast furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand was at a relatively high level, supporting the price. Since June, the basis of iron ore has returned from the spot to the futures, the spot price has dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures price has been relatively stable [2] Supply - This week, the overseas ore shipments increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the arrivals also increased significantly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that the shipments will continue to increase steadily, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly, with the support of the supply side weakening marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the delivery of non - mainstream mines [2] Demand - The domestic molten iron production ended five weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current steel mill profitability rate is high, the blast furnace profit is considerable, the short - process is in deep loss, and the iron - scrap difference has widened significantly. It is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be strong, and the high demand will support the price [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. The port inventory has decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly later, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]