中新社北京7月30日电 中新社记者 王恩博 中国"十四五"规划将于今年底收官，下半年经济走势如何，既关乎完成全年发展目标，也关乎为又 一个五年画上圆满句号。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，传递多重有力信号。 ——经济顶压前行展现活力 在今年二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大的情况下，中国经济表现好于预期。 除了上半年5.3%的国内生产总值(GDP)增速快于去年同期和全年，人流、物流、资金流都在改善。 一个突出例子是，上半年中国市场销售环比逐季增长，社会消费品零售总额达24.55万亿元人民 币，52%的经济增长由消费这架"主引擎"贡献。 政治局会议对此给予肯定，认为中国经济"展现强大活力和韧性"。会议提醒，要"用好发展机遇、 潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"。 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉分析称，中国经济的体量、韧性以及产业领域 积累的深厚基础、关联关系等，是当前经济稳健运行的强有力保障。加之经营主体的能力和本领在市场 竞争中不断提高，积极应变能力增强，共同助力中国经济在政策推动下稳中有进。 ——宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 这种广受市场认可的 ...

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议指出，宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效 应。 如何看待当前经济运行状况？如何展望下半年经济形势？如何推动物价合理回升？下半年是否有必要推 出增量政策？要如何加力促消费？如何更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳？如何有效推进"反内卷"的工 作？带着这些问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了上海财经大学校长刘元春。 下半年需重点关注投资 《21世纪》：上半年我国经济增长5.3%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。如何看待上半年经 济运行状况？ 刘元春：得益于超预期的出口和一揽子增量政策带来的消费反弹，中国经济上半年维持5.3%的增速， 显示出中国经济的韧劲和弹性。 在肯定上半年经济成绩的同时，也要看到一些结构性变化。当前，供给端增长要好于需求端，制造业韧 劲好于服务业，中央投资好于地方投资，大中型企业运行状况好于中小企业。更重要的是，6月份的一 些数据变化，包括投资增速回落、房地产市场出现波动等，暗示了下半年经济运行的新逻辑。 《21世纪》：如何展望下半年经济形势？出口、投 ...

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the 5% growth rate expected for the same period in 2024 [1][2] - The secondary and tertiary industries grew by 5.3% and 5.5% respectively, with manufacturing, information technology services, and business services showing particularly strong growth rates of 6.6%, 11.1%, and 9.6% [1][2] Government Policies - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to precise fiscal policies and flexible monetary policies implemented by the government and central bank [3][4] - The central bank has lowered key interest rates and reserve requirement ratios multiple times to release liquidity, while the government has increased the deficit ratio and expanded bond issuance to support green infrastructure and high-tech industries [3][4] Industry Development - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" and the plan to cultivate 10,000 specialized "little giant" enterprises have effectively alleviated financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises [4] - China is focusing on high-value manufacturing, high-end industrial chains, green technology, and the service sector, with significant growth observed in strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology and new energy vehicles [4][5] Future Prospects - The rapid growth of artificial intelligence, exemplified by the domestic model DeepSeek, indicates China's innovative potential and market opportunities in the AI sector [5] - Experts believe that as long as domestic demand continues to strengthen and policies remain coordinated, the annual growth target of 5% is still achievable [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing confidence of global investors in Chinese assets, driven by the resilience of the Chinese economy and significant progress in economic transformation and upgrading [1][2][3] - Foreign investment in domestic RMB bonds has exceeded 600 billion USD, indicating a historical high level of foreign capital interest in China [1] - In the first half of the year, foreign net purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached 10.1 billion USD, with a notable increase in May and June to 18.8 billion USD, reflecting a growing willingness to allocate capital to RMB assets [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that China's economic resilience and high growth potential are based on long-term stable growth, requiring a balance between maintaining growth, structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform [3] - It is crucial to expand domestic demand to ensure the economy remains resilient against external shocks, thereby boosting market confidence [4] - The narrative of "American exceptionalism" is fading, with global investors increasingly viewing China as a reliable choice amid global uncertainties, particularly in undervalued technology sectors [2]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index remained flat last Friday, with Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments on interest rate cuts boosting U.S. Treasury bonds, while oil prices slightly declined and gold and industrial metals increased [1] - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party faced historic losses in the Senate elections, but Prime Minister Kishida stated he would continue to govern [1] - After visiting Japan, Bessenet expressed optimism about a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan following a meeting with Prime Minister Kishida [1] Group 2 - U.S. consumer confidence reached a five-month high, with significant declines in inflation expectations [1] - China's Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, reported that the balance of China's economy is good, with domestic consumption's share of GDP continuously rising; more proactive fiscal policies and high-level opening-up will be implemented in the second half of the year [1] - Reports indicate that NVIDIA's H20 inventory is limited, and there are no plans for production resumption; CEO Jensen Huang sold NVIDIA shares worth approximately $12.94 million [1] Group 3 - Bank of America’s Hartnett noted that all sell signals for U.S. stocks have been triggered, but the real selling catalyst may not be in the stock market but in the bond market [1] - A reminder was issued that China's July LPR will be announced today [1]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy faces multiple uncertainties in the second half of the year due to a complex external environment, necessitating a focus on high-quality development and contingency planning [1][14] - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with a strong performance in the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding market expectations [1] Economic Highlights - Four key highlights of the domestic economy in the first half of the year include: 1. Production maintained rapid growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [2] 2. Foreign trade showed strong performance, with exports growing by 5.9% year-on-year, supported by diversified trade partnerships [3] 3. Consumer demand continued to be released, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.0% year-on-year [4] 4. Market confidence showed signs of recovery, with the A-share market reaching a three-and-a-half-year high and foreign exchange reserves returning to $3.3 trillion [4] Economic Risks - The nominal GDP growth rate continues to lag behind real GDP, indicating significant downward pressure on domestic prices, with CPI growth at 0.1% and PPI declining by 3.6% [5] - Risks include potential declines in external demand due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and the impact of geopolitical tensions on global trade [6][7] - Consumer spending is showing signs of slowing down, with retail sales growth dropping to 4.8% in June [7][8] - Fixed asset investment growth has decreased to 2.8%, with private investment declining by 0.6% [9] Policy Directions - The government is focusing on deepening reforms rather than stimulus measures in the second half of the year, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand [10][12] - Fiscal policy includes an increase in the broad deficit ratio to 8.4%, providing a buffer against external shocks [10] - Monetary policy remains supportive, with a series of measures implemented to stabilize market confidence and expectations [11] Reform Initiatives - Key reform initiatives include promoting income growth and reducing burdens on residents to enhance consumption capacity [12] - The government is also working on establishing a unified national market to eliminate local protectionism and improve market competition [13]

Group 1 - The Chinese economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, driven by more proactive macro policies, including aggressive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies [1][5] - The implementation of policies has shown strong characteristics, such as targeted approaches, early execution, and enhanced collaboration between different levels of government [1][7] - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to the active role of various enterprises, which have adapted to external challenges and focused on innovation [2][3] Group 2 - Consumer spending has shown signs of recovery, particularly in service consumption and upgraded consumption categories, although challenges in addressing insufficient domestic demand remain [5][7] - Major reforms have been initiated following the 20th National Congress, with 369 significant reform tasks outlined, aimed at enhancing economic circulation and promoting the vitality of business entities [5][7] - The current economic environment presents both challenges and opportunities, with a focus on long-term development and the establishment of a unified national market [5][7]

Economic Resilience - China's foreign trade showed resilience with a 2.9% growth in imports and exports in the first half of the year, despite significant external shocks in the second quarter [3] - In the second quarter, imports and exports grew by 4.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - Trade dependency on a single country has decreased to single digits, with significant growth in trade with the EU, ASEAN, South Korea, and Japan [3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [4] - Consumer demand has been steadily released, enhancing market vitality due to ongoing initiatives to boost consumption [6] - Service retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with growth accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter [7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 24.9 trillion yuan, nominally growing by 2.8%, with a real growth rate of 5.3% after adjusting for price changes [9] - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5%, accounting for 25.2% of total fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [9] - High-tech service industry investment grew by 8.6%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [9] Innovation and Technology - A series of technological innovations have emerged, with significant breakthroughs in high-speed rail and wind turbine technology [10] - The number of effective invention patent applications reached nearly 5 million, growing by 12.8% [10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 9.5% in the first half of the year [10] Digital and Green Economy - The digital economy's core industries accounted for about 10% of GDP [11] - Production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for automobiles grew by 36.2% and 53.3% respectively, indicating strong growth in the green industry [12] Global Economic Context - Despite global economic growth forecasts being downgraded by institutions like the World Bank and OECD, predictions for China's economic growth remain stable, with several international banks raising their forecasts for China [13]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year [1] - Economic experts believe that despite increasing uncertainties in the international economic and trade order, China's economy is showing resilience and achieving a "dual optimization" in both total economic volume and structure [1] - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, noted that the 5.3% growth rate exceeds market expectations and anticipates that the government may implement innovative policy tools to support growth in the second half of the year [1] Foreign Trade - China's import and export scale reached 20 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a historical high for the same period, demonstrating the resilience of China's foreign trade [1] - The researcher from the Ministry of Commerce, Zhou Mi, believes that China has the potential and capability to maintain stable growth in foreign trade in the second half of the year, particularly with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Real Estate Market - The dean of Tsinghua University's School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Wu Jing, stated that "good houses" have become a new growth point for China's real estate industry, especially in hot cities and regions [2] - The real estate policies are expected to continue stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks, creating more opportunities in the industry [2] Market Competition - The Chinese government is formulating measures to regulate "involution" competition in certain industries and enterprises, aiming to enhance market order [2] - Wei Qijia, director of the Industrial Economics Research Office at the National Information Center, proposed using standards and legal means to curb unfair competition and expand effective demand to boost consumer spending [2]

Economic Performance Overview - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, with a second-quarter growth of 5.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% [2][3] - The overall economic performance is described as stable with progress, achieved under challenging international conditions and increasing external pressures [3] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for the first half of the year increased by 6.4%, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 6.0%, 7.0%, and 1.9% respectively [5] - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, particularly high-end equipment manufacturing, are identified as strong support for industrial growth [6][7] - A potential slowdown in industrial production is anticipated in the second half of the year due to export-related factors [8] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods for June grew by 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [10] - For the first half of the year, retail sales totaled 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year increase [11] - Key trends in consumption include accelerated service consumption, enhanced holiday spending, and a rise in green consumption [12] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 248,654 billion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [16] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, contrasting with an 11.2% decline in real estate development investment [16] - The investment structure is improving, with a notable increase in high-tech service industry investments [17][18] Future Outlook - The potential for fixed asset investment remains significant, with a focus on mobilizing private investment and optimizing investment environments [18] - The government is expected to enhance infrastructure investment through special bonds and long-term treasury bonds in response to economic fluctuations [19] - Over 300 billion yuan has been allocated to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, with a total investment of 10.21 trillion yuan in projects being promoted to private capital [20]