央视网消息：世界经济论坛2026年年会也就是我们常说的达沃斯论坛23日落下帷幕。五天的会议日程中，关于合作的话题不断升温，越来越多的目光投向中 国。与会嘉宾们表示，在不确定的世界中，中国始终是最大的确定性。 在本次的论坛期间，记者也采访了联合国贸易和发展会议的秘书长格林斯潘、世界贸易组织的总干事伊维拉，以及世界经济论坛的执行董事。他们对中国 2025年经济发展可以说是"点赞"，同时他们也对未来中国经济充满了期待。 总台记者 薛婧萌：2026年世界经济论坛的年会闭幕了，本届年会的主题是对话的精神。在为期五天的年会当中，全球来自130个国家和地区的3000名参会者 齐聚一堂，共同探讨重塑全球局势的重大经济、地缘政治以及技术的议题。本届年会围绕着五大关键的全球挑战来展开，分别是我们如何在竞争加剧的世界 当中开展合作，如何释放新的增长动力，如何更好地投资于人，如何负责任地推动创新的规模化应用，以及如何维护地球限度并实现繁荣。 从这几天的会议当中，我们可以看到从应对地缘政治的风险到经济的不确定性，再到引领科技创新，到投资于人，到推动能源、自然、水资源系统地协调地 发展……可以说，人们是非常期待全球的政界、商界、科学、文 ...

在全球经济增长乏力、不确定性持续上升的背景下，中国经济走向正成为国际社会高度关注的重要议 题。 无论是在国际货币基金组织最新发布的《世界经济展望》中，还是在19日启幕的达沃斯论坛上，中国经 济都是全球关注的焦点。 回望2025年，在复杂多变的内外部环境中，中国经济交出了一份亮眼的"成绩单"：全年经济总量迈上 140万亿元新台阶，经济增速达到5%。 此前，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平在接受南方财经记者采访时表示，在内需偏弱、外部风险增加 的情况下，能保持5%左右的增速并不容易，足以体现中国经济的韧性。他指出，最值得关注的重点之 一是结构的变化——高技术产业和战略性新兴产业增速明显快于传统产业，正在为经济注入新动能，推 动经济向更高质量方向发展。 从国际视角看，渣打银行财富管理部全球首席投资总监布思哲在接受南方财经记者采访时指出，通胀已 经出现企稳回升的迹象，这对中国经济是一个"很重要的积极信号"。因为名义GDP的改善不仅能缓解债 务压力，也能增强投资和消费的动力，让经济更有"持续性"。 从数据层面看，2025年工业、服务业回升态势稳健，消费与外贸也保持韧性。连平认为，出口的结构在 优化，服务消费和新型消费增长 ...

美国高级经济学家大卫·布莱尔（David Blair）、复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵 宇，以及招商基金首席经济学家李湛，在本期《全球财经连线》中，围绕中国经济运行的内在 逻辑与未来增长动能，进行了深入解读。 此前，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平在接受南方财经记者采访时表示，在内需偏弱、外部 风险增加的情况下，能保持5%左右的增速并不容易，足以体现中国经济的韧性。他指出，最 值得关注的重点之一是结构的变化——高技术产业和战略性新兴产业增速明显快于传统产业， 正在为经济注入新动能，推动经济向更高质量方向发展。 从国际视角看，渣打银行财富管理部全球首席投资总监布思哲在接受南方财经记者采访时指 出，通胀已经出现企稳回升的迹象，这对中国经济是一个"很重要的积极信号"。因为名义GDP 的改善不仅能缓解债务压力，也能增强投资和消费的动力，让经济更有"持续性"。 从数据层面看，2025年工业、服务业回升态势稳健，消费与外贸也保持韧性。连平认为，出口 的结构在优化，服务消费和新型消费增长较快，高技术产业的比重在提升，这些都在成为新的 增长支撑。 记者丨 杨雨莱 李依农 编辑丨施诗 在全球经济增长乏力、不确定性持续上升 ...

2025年中国经济顶压前行、向新向优，"十四五"实现圆满收官。"十五五"新征程已经开启，开局之年看 发展之势，中国经济有基础有条件保持稳定向好运行，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。 看态势，我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变，支撑高质量发展的积极因素不断累积强化。"十四五"时 期，我国经济总量相继跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元、140万亿元4个重要关口，5年经济增量 超过36万亿元，经济实力、科技实力、国防实力、综合国力跃上新台阶，充分彰显了经济的强大韧性和 潜能。我国稳居世界第二大经济体和制造业第一大国，货物贸易规模全球第一，是全球第二大消费市场 和第一大网络零售市场，具备应对各类风险挑战的能力与底气。观察中国经济，既看"体量"，更看"体 质"。我们依靠创新为高质量发展赋能，2025年研发经费投入强度首次超过经合组织国家平均水平，原 创性、颠覆性创新成果大量涌现，人工智能、生物医药、机器人等研发和应用处在全球第一梯队，绿色 低碳转型深入推进，数字经济蓬勃发展。我国经济社会发展取得的新的重要成就，为继续跑好"十五 五"新征程奠定了更加坚实的基础。 看优势，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，中国 ...

中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2026年一季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中国经 济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场的投资者是 一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 日录 | • 中金研究团队介绍 ………………… – p. 2 | | | --- | --- | | • 宏观经济 … | p. 3 | | ● 市场策略 | p. 14 | | • 量化及ESG | | | ● 固定收益 … | p. 51 | | ● 大宗商品 . | p. 81 | | · 外汇研究 . | p. 97 | 注： 除特别说明，本产品中所有价格数据均截至2026年1月19日 返回目ঙ | | 中金研究团队介绍 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观经济 | 市场策略 | 量化及ESG | 固定收益 | 大宗商品 | | · 彭文生 | · 缪延亮 | · 刘均伟 | · 陈健恒 | · 郭朝辉 | | · 张文朗 | ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is expected to maintain stable and positive growth despite facing multiple pressures, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation as key drivers for the future [1][2][3] Economic Performance - In the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy crossed significant milestones, reaching over 140 trillion yuan, with an economic increment exceeding 36 trillion yuan [1] - Domestic demand contributed over 67% to economic growth in 2025, with consumption accounting for 52% [2] - The trade volume reached new highs, and foreign exchange reserves exceeded 3.3 trillion USD [2] Innovation and Development - By 2025, R&D expenditure intensity surpassed the OECD average, with significant advancements in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [1] - The transition to a green and low-carbon economy is progressing, and the digital economy is thriving [1][3] Structural Advantages - China's economic foundation is strong, with advantages in the socialist system, large market size, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources [3] - The shift in consumer behavior towards a balance of goods and services consumption is evident, indicating potential for further domestic demand expansion [3] Policy and Future Outlook - The central economic work conference has outlined comprehensive measures to address existing challenges and enhance macroeconomic policies for 2026 [2] - International organizations have raised their growth forecasts for China, reflecting confidence in the country's economic prospects [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy demonstrated strong resilience and vitality in 2025, exceeding expectations despite a complex international environment [1] - China achieved its annual GDP growth target and showcased significant competitiveness in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence [1] - There has been a continuous inflow of foreign investment into China since mid-2025, indicating growing confidence from international investors in the Chinese market and assets [1] Group 2 - China's economy is transitioning from scale expansion to a new stage characterized by technology-driven, mature, and stable high-quality development [1] - Chinese companies are recognized for their undeniable advantages in advanced sectors like artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics, often occupying a significant share of the top ten global companies in these fields [1] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly globalizing by integrating into the global innovation ecosystem, creating jobs overseas, establishing R&D centers, employing global management teams, and exporting corporate culture and management philosophies [1] Group 3 - As Chinese companies evolve into global enterprises, multinational companies are also changing their strategies in China [2] - China is now not only a vast sales market but also an innovation base and trendsetter for multinational companies [2] - The competitive environment in China drives rapid product iterations and efficiency improvements, making it essential for multinational companies to remain in China to compete with local innovation and maintain global technological competitiveness [3]

Core Viewpoint - The book "Economic Dynamics Transformation: From Scale Economy to Innovation-Driven" by Professor Pan Helin provides a clear narrative on how China's economy has evolved and the necessity for a shift towards innovation-driven growth, avoiding both exaggerated claims and abstract theories [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Economic Dynamics - The book begins by discussing the importance of institutional reforms since 1978, emphasizing that the reform was fundamentally about stimulating individual initiative and economic dynamism [2]. - The author uses the example of Xiaogang Village to illustrate how stable property rights incentivized farmers to invest and take risks, thereby revitalizing agricultural production and the broader economy [2]. - The narrative highlights that past growth was driven by a restructuring of incentives, allowing individual creativity to flourish, rather than being solely propelled by administrative directives [2]. Group 2: Old Logic of Economic Growth - The first part of the book outlines six key components of China's previous growth model: distribution system, scale economy, real estate economy, financial leverage, globalization, and network economy [3]. - These components are interrelated and collectively contributed to China's rapid economic growth, with scale economies providing unique advantages in a large market and real estate driving urbanization [3]. - The author argues that understanding these six components is crucial for assessing which advantages will continue to play a role in China's economic future and which mechanisms are nearing their limits [3]. Group 3: Challenges and the Need for Transition - The book discusses six major challenges facing the Chinese economy, including common prosperity, involution, post-urbanization, financial risks, de-globalization, and technological competition [4]. - Common prosperity is framed as essential for long-term stability, as widening income gaps could lead to structural risks [4]. - The author identifies involution as a symptom of a "stock era," where diminishing returns on effort signal the limitations of the old growth model [4]. Group 4: Future Directions for Economic Growth - The latter part of the book proposes a new logic for China's economy, focusing on building a more comprehensive domestic market and enhancing economic efficiency through technological innovation [6]. - The author emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in light of changing international conditions and the limitations of the old growth model [6]. - Innovation is highlighted as the key to improving total factor productivity and transitioning away from reliance on factor accumulation, with a focus on creating an environment that encourages risk-taking and rewards innovation [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Experts predict that China's economy will achieve a "total breakthrough of 140 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 5%" in 2025, driven by resilient exports, the rise of new productivity, and industrial structure optimization [1][2] Economic Performance - In 2025, China's exports are expected to account for 14.5% to 14.7% of global exports, nearing historical peaks, with significant contributions from high-tech products like automobiles and integrated circuits [1] - The total foreign trade volume is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, growing by 3.8%, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.1% [1] Industrial Structure and Productivity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing is expected to constitute 17.1% of the total industrial added value, with digital product manufacturing increasing by 9.3% and industrial robot production rising by 28% [2] - The tertiary sector's added value is projected to reach 808.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% and accounting for nearly 58% of GDP, becoming a core engine for economic growth [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by 3.8% in 2025, marking the first negative growth since 2020, with a further decrease in real estate investment [3] - Experts highlight the need for demand recovery, supply efficiency improvement, and institutional environment enhancement to unlock future economic potential [3] Policy Recommendations - There is a consensus on increasing counter-cyclical policy measures, with a focus on boosting domestic consumption demand [4] - Suggestions include integrating existing and new policies, with an expected deficit rate exceeding 4% and a broad deficit scale of about 15 trillion yuan [4] - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, with room for interest rate cuts [4] Long-term Economic Potential - The key to unlocking China's economic potential lies in combining investments in physical and human capital, fostering new productivity, and addressing governance issues [5] - Reforming incentive mechanisms is essential to stimulate the vitality of private enterprises [5]

Economic Growth and Capital Market Development - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, reaching 1401879 billion yuan, indicating strong resilience in the real economy [1][5] - The total market value of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan in August 2025 and further increased to 123 trillion yuan by the end of the year, reflecting a positive correlation between economic growth and capital market performance [1][5] Structural Changes in Capital Market - The trend of "moving towards new" in the Chinese economy is driving significant structural changes in the capital market, with R&D expenditure intensity reaching 2.8% in 2025, surpassing the OECD average for the first time [2][6] - The electronics sector has become the largest industry in A-shares, with its total market value exceeding that of the banking sector, and the number of technology companies in the top 50 A-share market capitalization has increased from 18 to 24 over five years [2][6] Market Ecosystem and Resilience - The synergy between a robust economy and a resilient capital market fosters a healthy development ecosystem, enhancing market valuation systems and functional improvements [7] - A multi-layered market system, including various boards and regional equity markets, caters to diverse financing needs, particularly for innovative enterprises [7][8] Regulatory and Structural Reforms - Recent regulatory reforms aim to create a safe, transparent, and vibrant capital market that aligns closely with the high-quality development needs of the real economy [8][9] - The emphasis on a non-interventionist regulatory approach and the promotion of long-term capital inflows are part of a broader strategy to enhance the quality of listed companies and market functionality [8][9]