Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. The short - term trend is influenced by the US soybean market. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean price, uncertainties remain in the purchase volume and the US soybean harvest weather. Domestically, the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current situation of demand and inventory lead to a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term trend is affected by the US soybean market, the cost of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price, while the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, and other data of soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing the overall supply - demand situation of global soybeans during this period [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, import volume, and other data of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are provided, reflecting the domestic supply - demand situation [34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are detailed, including the planting rate, harvest rate, and comparison with previous years and the five - year average [35][36][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: The planting area, yield, output, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are shown, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 is presented, indicating that the arrival volume decreased from the high level in November 2025, but the overall year - on - year increase [49]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving, and the market focuses on China's soybean purchases. Domestic soybean meal is rising, but the demand improvement and spot price discount limit the rebound. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 will fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price, but the domestic soybean production increase restricts the upward movement [11]. - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, there are uncertainties in China's purchase quantity and US soybean weather. The domestic soybean meal market will return to range - bound fluctuations due to various factors such as the decline of soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and the high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant detailed content found 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market has returned to range - bound fluctuations due to factors like the decline in imported soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and high inventory in domestic oil mills [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal Longs**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has no pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Soybean Meal Shorts**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remains high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Soybean Longs**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Soybean Shorts**: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China is increasing its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production restricts the price increase [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal in East China is - 55, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 99.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.89% and a year - on - year increase of 27.52% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The basis of domestic soybeans is - 6, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 747.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 40.92% [11]. - The report also provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 - 2024, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, etc. [33][34] 5. Position Data - The main short positions in both soybean meal and soybeans have increased, and funds have flowed out [9][11] 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data - The report provides the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from November 19 - 27, 2025, as well as the price differences between them [17]. - It also shows the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from November 20 - 27, 2025 [19]. - The report presents the warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from November 18 - 27, 2025 [21]. 7. Global Soybean Production Progress - The report provides the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the US (2024, 2025), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26) [35][36][40] 8. USDA Supply - Demand Report - The report shows the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from April - November 2025, including data on planting area, yield, production, and ending inventory [46] 9. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [47]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November but increased overall year - on - year [49]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remains high, while the inventory of soybean meal has decreased from its high [50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have increased from a low level, and the备货 demand has recovered [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - The hog inventory has been rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The hog price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has increased slightly. The domestic hog farming profit has decreased slightly [58][60][64]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸大豆观点和策略 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3000至3060区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，市场关注中国量采购美豆进展和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归 震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回 升，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度， 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2980（华东），基差-33，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加2 ...

此外，AgMarket.Net的农经学家吉姆·麦考密克表示，一些分析师和交易员对中国是否会履行大豆购买 承诺持怀疑态度。虽然白宫表示中国承诺购买1200万吨大豆。据是中方从未公开表示过达成了这样的协 议。麦考密克表示，特朗普政府暗示美中贸易协议可能在感恩节前最终敲定。 尽管近期中国开始恢复采购美国大豆，但是据俄亥俄州立大学的农经学家伊恩·谢尔顿表示，他估计中 国在年底前不会购买1200万吨美国大豆。 周一美国农业部长罗林斯表示，据她了解，美国和中国将在本周或下周签署农产品采购协议。她补充 说，她相信中国会履行其购买承诺。 谢尔顿表示，由于中国已经拥有足够的供应，因此没有太多动力进行额外采购。他补充说，(中国能否 实现采购目标)，在很大程度上取决于中国政府在推动国有贸易商进口大豆的举措。进入新的一年后， 采购步伐将取决于私人贸易商以及美国大豆相对巴西大豆的价格竞争力。 罗林斯称，种种迹象表明，中国的承诺依然有效，确实会购买1200万吨大豆。 （来源：饲料行业信息网） 此外，美国大豆销售高峰即将结束，进口商现在面临着运输限制。通过巴拿马运河的每艘货轮可以运输 6万至8万吨。而要达到1200万吨的运输量，就需要15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discounts suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. It is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, resulting in a short - term volatile situation [11]. - The short - term soybean meal market is in an interval - oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the high - level arrival of imported soybeans, the decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits, and the relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal M2601: It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [9]. - Soybean A2601: It is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is neutral; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is strongly oscillating above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal [13]. - The relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations have caused the short - term soybean meal market to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean disk; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - Bearish factors: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. - The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil in different years is provided, including the sowing rate, emergence rate, excellent - good rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - The monthly supply - demand report of the USDA in the past six months shows changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume [46]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall [47][49]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in the soybean meal market increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - The main short positions in the soybean market increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The futures price of soybean meal oscillated downward, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly [24]. - The soybean input volume of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [26][54]. - The low - level procurement and pick - up volume of domestic downstream industries increased [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit decreased slightly [64].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal (M2601)**: The domestic bean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 3080 and 3140. It is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discount suppressing the upward movement. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, there are uncertainties in the purchase volume, and the overall good US soybean harvest weather restricts the upside. Additionally, the relatively high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China also affects the domestic bean meal market [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The domestic soybean price is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260. The US soybean trend, the cost support of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price. However, the high production of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to be range - bound above the thousand - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the planting weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from a high level. The relatively normal harvest weather of US soybeans and the China - US trade negotiation agreement led to the short - term range - bound pattern of domestic bean meal, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bean Meal Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a good US soybean harvest [14]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: High production of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: Spot price is 3000 (East China), with a basis of - 43, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on fundamental data other than the price range and influencing factors 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on position data other than the price range and influencing factors 6. Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - **Bean Meal (M2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

美国财政部长贝森特在周日播出的讲话中表示，中美之间的稀土协议“有望”在感恩节前达成。贝森特称，虽然美中贸易协议尚未最终敲定，但美国必须相信中国领导人会信守承诺。（而此前贝森特曾暗示中国是“不可靠的伙伴”）贝森特还坚称美国“有很多筹码”。 https://t.co/ytRl59Feln ...

铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...