Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints The current cotton market has a limited change in the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short - term. High supply significantly suppresses the market. As cotton procurement nears completion, short - term marginal drivers weaken, reducing volatility. The enthusiasm for capital speculation is low, but the short - selling sentiment of leading institutions has cooled. Downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have not deteriorated after more than two months of tortuous recovery, and there is still sales resilience in the domestic market, which may maintain the rigid demand for raw materials in the future. With weak import expectations, it is expected to shrink the supply - demand gap in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, the market price is near the hedging pressure level, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback opportunities during the transmission of supply pressure or sell put options at the bottom, and also pay attention to short - term reverse arbitrage opportunities. The reference range is 13330 - 13830 [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - **International**: Baysant said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that China is willing to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state with the US. As of November 4 (US Eastern Time), the US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the US federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest "shutdown" record in US history [3]. - **Domestic**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply Factors - **International**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, with 730,000 tons of new cotton inspected, accounting for about 25% of the total. Precipitation in major cotton - growing areas decreased in early November, which is beneficial for harvesting. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 14,000 tons, and it is expected that precipitation in cotton - growing areas will decrease in January, which is expected to accelerate procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP). In Pakistan, as of the end of October, the listing volume of new cotton was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In Brazil, the cotton processing progress in 2025 was 63.67%, slower than last year [3]. - **Domestic**: It is expected that cotton procurement in Xinjiang will end in mid - to - early November. The inspection progress is faster than the same period, and the sales progress is still relatively fast. The quality of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is not as expected, and ginneries have become more cautious in procurement. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton. Low - cost ginneries can make a small profit by selling at the current price [3]. - **Picking and Processing Progress**: The national new cotton picking progress reached 87.1%, the delivery progress was 90.4%, the processing progress was 39.4%, and the national new cotton inspection volume exceeded 2.25 million tons; the sales progress was 14.2%, 5.8% faster than the same period [17]. - **Cost**: The national average purchase price of seed cotton has rebounded steadily. The average price of new - season ginned cotton has increased to 14,500 yuan/ton. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory increased by 521,700 tons week - on - week to 2.8478 million tons, lower than the same period by 278,800 tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 1.839 million tons, higher than the same period by 269,600 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces increased to 165,200 tons, lower than the same period by 14,300 tons. The inventory of finished products such as pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn decreased [19]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Affected by the improvement of warehouse receipt premiums and the firmness of the market, the number of warehouse receipts has increased [3]. Demand Factors - **International**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow in August, and consumer confidence continued to recover in October. In Vietnam, clothing and textile exports decreased month - on - month in October and were lower than the same period. In the EU, the consumer confidence index continued to recover in October, but the growth rate of clothing imports decreased significantly in August, and the import amount declined [3]. - **Domestic**: In November, the overall trading level in the downstream market was still average, with obvious market negotiation characteristics. The current market transactions are mainly concentrated in local low - basis resources and the rigid demand procurement of enterprises, with no obvious new orders. Enterprises mainly focus on pre - sales. This week, the operating rates of spinning and weaving enterprises changed little week - on - week, the repair of spinning profits slowed down, the trading volume in the downstream textile market decreased marginally and was the same as the same period; the prices of auxiliary materials in the Keqiao area continued to fall to a low level, and the improvement of the terminal volume - price trend was not good [3]. - **Operating Rates**: This week, the spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 65.6%, 6.3% lower than the same period; the weaving mill operating rate increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 37.6%, 10.1% lower than the same period [26]. - **Profits**: The immediate profit of the representative 32 - count yarn has remained stable at around - 900 yuan/ton recently, and the profit of textile enterprises in Xinjiang is about 600 yuan/ton. The cumulative year - on - year value of industry profits in September rebounded to - 18.5% [26]. - **Market Transactions**: This week, the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth trading volume in the Textile City decreased by 28,000 meters week - on - week to 336,000 meters, the same as the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index increased by 0.07 to 110.86, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 0.35 to 110.63 [28]. - **PMI**: In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period, and it has been below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% month - on - month to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% month - on - month to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [31]. - **Retail Sales**: In September, the total retail sales of enterprises in the clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles categories above the designated size reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, an increase from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of these enterprises were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [33]. - **Exports**: In October, the export volume of textile and clothing was 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 243.94 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the export volume of textiles was 11.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 117.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The export volume of clothing was 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 126.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The preliminary agreement in the China-US trade negotiation has a short - term positive impact on US soybeans, but the subsequent negotiation and weather in the US soybean - growing areas remain uncertain. US soybeans are expected to fluctuate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets will also be affected by factors such as US soybean prices, import volumes, and downstream demand [13][34]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern. The short - term demand is in the off - season, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. The market is waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. - The price of domestic soybeans is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic demand, and the expected increase in domestic production. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the market focusing on the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Prompt There is no specific content provided for the weekly prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for the harvest situation and the planting weather in South America, as well as the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year is expected to increase, but the demand for soybean meal is in the off - season [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise at the end of the year, so soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas remains uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean futures price; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Short factors**: After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, China has started to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in some US soybean - growing areas is normal, with a neutral impact. In the next week, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import cost**: US soybeans are fluctuating strongly. With the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the import cost is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil mill crushing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, and the crushing volume of oil mills has declined from its high. The demand is expected to remain weak in the short term, and the operating rate of oil mills is expected to remain low, with a bullish impact [9]. - **Trading volume**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stocking has weakened, and the market trading volume is expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil mill inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its high. As the upstream operating rate has dropped to a low level, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, with a bullish impact [9]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish signal [10]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of global soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months It presents data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [22]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress It details the progress of US soybean planting, growth, and harvest in 2024 and 2025, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting rates, as well as the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [23][24][25][29]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress It shows the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26, as well as the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 [26][28][30]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported soybean arrival**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November, with an overall year - on - year increase [37]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills has declined from its high, while the soybean meal inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills has declined from its high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [38][39]. - **Soybean meal trading**: The orders of domestic downstream buyers have decreased slightly, and the pick - up volume has declined from its high [45]. - **Pig farming inventory**: The pig inventory has continued to rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remains weak [47][49]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, while the spot price has remained relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot discount [58]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly [60]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the price of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a high - level oscillation state, indicating that the soybean futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for new market guidance [66]. Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the rise in US soybean prices, the China - US trade negotiation agreement, and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in a short - term technical adjustment stage, and the market is waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [69]. 9. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most important**: The harvest weather in the US soybean - growing areas, the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - **Second most important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [74]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term US soybean market is supported by China's soybean purchases, but uncertainties in purchase volume and good harvesting weather limit its upside. The domestic soybean meal market is driven by US soybeans and maintains a range - bound pattern due to factors such as high - level arrivals of imported Brazilian soybeans and short - term demand being in the off - season [9]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the price of US soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor, while the high - level arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit its upside [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided in the text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather remain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark and awaits further guidance on soybean growth, harvesting, and Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills declined from a high level. Affected by the normal harvesting weather of US soybeans and the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price. The market is in a range - bound pattern under the cross - influence of US soybean trends and the off - season demand [13]. - The high - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, and the Sino - US trade agreement have caused soybean meal to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - For soybean meal: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - For soybeans: Cost support from imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. Bearish Factors - For soybean meal: High - level arrival volume of imported soybeans in November and the expected high yield of US soybeans due to the harvest and good weather [14]. - For soybeans: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3000 (in East China), with a basis of - 58, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 18, showing a neutral situation. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal (M2601) - It is expected to oscillate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The market is affected by the trend of US soybeans, with demand in the short - term off - season and the spot price discount limiting the upward movement of the futures price. The overall view is neutral [9]. Soybeans (A2601) - It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The market is influenced by the price of US soybeans, with the cost of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand supporting the price floor, while high - level arrivals of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic production limit its upside. The overall view is neutral [11].

中美在关税问题上或将达成和解 在中美领导人即将在韩国举行会晤之际，中美经贸团队在吉隆坡进行了磋商，并达成了初步共识。美国 决定不再对中国加征100%的高额关税。那么，这是否意味着中美之间在关税问题上已经实现和解？随 着11月的到来，中美关系是否能够恢复正常？ 11月11日，当前中美之间的关税暂缓期将到期。如果此时中美未能就关税问题达成协议，那么双方的关 税将恢复到4月份时的超高税率，可能超过100%。这不仅会导致中美之间的贸易往来停滞，还会对全球 贸易产生巨大的负面影响。因此，10月底中美领导人在韩国的会晤将成为关税问题能否解决的关键时 刻。如果双方领导人能够像此前电话通话时那样达成共识，签署协议，那么中美之间的紧张局势将大大 缓解。 为了争取更多谈判筹码，美国在多个领域对中国施加了压力。美国通过海事物流和造船业的301措施、 派遣航母打击群进入南海、在东盟峰会期间排斥中国参与泰柬两国和平协议签署等手段，向中国施加了 经济、军事和政治方面的压力。 10月25日至26日，中美经贸团队在马来西亚吉隆坡进行了磋商。此次磋商的中方代表是国务院副总理， 而美方则派出了财政部长贝森特。可以说，这次磋商阵容非常强大，规格较 ...

Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The long - term filling of mainstream shipping companies is good, but the spot market cargo collection is average. The spot price difference among shipping companies has widened, and the market continues to play a game on the subsequent freight rate trend. The EC market maintains a volatile trend. On November 3rd, EC2512 closed at 1851.7 points, up 2.64% from the previous day's closing price. On October 31st, the SCFI European line reported $1344/TEU, up 7.9% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1208.71 points after the market today, down 7.9% month - on - month, with the spot decline slightly exceeding market expectations [7]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rates from November to December are expected to gradually increase, and shipping companies are expected to continue to announce price increases. From the fundamental perspective, on the demand side, shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm needs to be concerned. On the supply side, from October to December 2025 and January 2026, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports is 233,600/266,200/293,900/296,100 TEU respectively. After the China - US meeting, the tariff reduction and the extension of the 301 port service fee require tracking of the shipping companies' cargo collection performance [8]. - Unilateral trading strategy: The market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance. It is expected that there will be short - term volatility to determine the extent of the price increase. Temporarily stay on the sidelines. Arbitrage strategy: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Industry News - Since November 10, 2025, the compound tariff rate on Chinese - imported goods imposed by the US will be reduced by 10%, and the current suspension period of additional tariffs on China will be extended to November 10, 2026 (the current 10% benchmark tariff rate remains unchanged during the suspension period) [11]. - The US will extend the validity period of some "Section 301" tariff exemption measures originally due to expire on November 29, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of the policy of "expanding the scope of end - user control for related parties of specific list entities" for one year [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of measures taken based on the "Section 301" investigation of China's shipbuilding industry for one year. During this period, the US will continue consultations with China in accordance with Article 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and maintain historical cooperation with South Korea and Japan in revitalizing the US shipbuilding industry [11]. Market Data Futures Market - For EC2512, the closing price is 1851.7, up 47.7 points or 2.64% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 18,824 lots (down 68.37%) and an open interest of 29,320 lots (down 6.52%). For EC2602, the closing price is 1592.2, up 38.6 points or 2.48%, with a trading volume of 5,040 lots (down 55.74%) and an open interest of 18,781 lots (up 1.77%). Similar data are provided for other contracts such as EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 [6]. - In the month - spread structure, for example, the spread between EC12 and EC02 is 260, up 9.1 points; the spread between EC12 and EC04 is 667, up 24.4 points [6]. Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European line index is 1208.71 points, down 7.92% week - on - week and 46.48% year - on - year; the SCFIS US West line index is 1267.15 points, up 14.43% week - on - week and down 54.40% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1550.70 points, up 10.49% week - on - week and down 29.04% year - on - year. Other routes' freight rates and their changes are also presented [6]. Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract is $60.49 per barrel, up 0.87% week - on - week and down 12.26% year - on - year; the price of Brent crude oil near - month contract is $64.58 per barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week and down 11.1% year - on - year [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean**: In the short - term, US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend, the cost of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, influenced by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [11]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and rising, driven by the US soybean trend. However, the short - term demand slump and the spot price discount limit the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations, the harvest weather in the US, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips The document does not mention specific weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean meal market is oscillating moderately strongly in the short term and will return to the range - bound pattern in the medium term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decrease in November, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will remain high. The demand for soybean meal in November is weak, but the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in November; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Positive Factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Negative Factors**: After the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, China starts to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the soybean price [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the global soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. 3.4.2 USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Report in the Past Six Months It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 [22]. 3.4.3 US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 The report details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024, as well as the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [23][24][25]. 3.4.4 Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress It includes the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 season [26][27][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data The document does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market Analysis US soybeans are oscillating and rising due to the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, but the bumper harvest of US soybeans limits the upward space. The short - and medium - term trends are mainly affected by the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the implementation of the China - US trade agreement [34]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival of imported soybeans in November is decreasing from a high level, and the year - on - year overall shows an increase [37]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high, the soybean meal inventory has a slight increase, the soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal production in September increases year - on - year [38][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement has a slight decrease, and the pick - up volume is decreasing from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and started to rise recently, and the profit of pig farming has improved [47][49][53]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis**: The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has a slight increase [58]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [60]. 3.8 Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in an oscillatory state, and the soybean futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new market guidance [65]. 3.8.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in an oscillatory and rebound stage, and the upward space is limited. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [68]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [71][72]. - **Second - Most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The global trade situation is expected to stabilize over the next year, with a focus on exports [1] - The construction materials sector has shown a positive performance, with a weekly increase of 1.29%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [4] - The report highlights the importance of the U.S.-China trade agreement in shaping future trade stability [4] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 351.7 RMB/ton, up by 3.5 RMB/ton from last week, but down by 65.2 RMB/ton compared to the same period in 2024. The average cement inventory ratio is 69.6%, up by 1.8 percentage points from last week [13][14][22] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1202.7 RMB/ton, down by 41.0 RMB/ton from last week and down by 126.0 RMB/ton year-on-year. The inventory of float glass stands at 62 million heavy boxes, down by 470,000 boxes from last week [48][50] - **Fiberglass**: The market price for non-alkali fiberglass remains stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 3250 to 3700 RMB/ton [46] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes a rebound in new orders and business activity expectations in the construction sector, linked to recent policy financial support [4] - The report recommends focusing on export-oriented industries, particularly in the fiberglass sector, and companies involved in home decoration consumption [4] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The report indicates that the cement market is experiencing a slight increase in prices, particularly in the southwestern region, while demand is expected to weaken as northern regions enter winter [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining supply discipline within the cement industry, which is expected to lead to better profitability compared to the previous year [4][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuating gold prices influenced by various economic factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. - Recent adjustments in gold prices are attributed to profit-taking by investors and optimistic expectations regarding a potential U.S.-China trade agreement [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to a decrease in the market's expectations for further rate cuts in December, impacting gold prices [2][3]. Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, reaching 1,313 tons, driven primarily by a surge in investment demand [2]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently trading below several moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend in the short term [5][6]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 4010-4020, while support is seen at 3915-3885, indicating potential trading strategies for the upcoming week [6][3].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, closing at approximately $4024.18 per ounce after a sharp recovery from an initial drop to $3915, marking a daily increase of about 2.4%, the largest since the recent peak on October 20 [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.0% has contributed to the renewed interest in gold, as low interest rates and economic uncertainty create a favorable environment for non-yielding assets [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.38% to 99.51, with a peak of 99.72, the highest since August 1, yet this strength did not suppress safe-haven buying in gold, indicating heightened market sensitivity to uncertainty [1] Trade Developments - President Trump announced a reduction of tariffs on China from 57% to 47% in exchange for increased purchases of U.S. soybeans and enhanced cooperation on rare earth exports, which briefly boosted the stock market before a quick retreat [2] - The overall sentiment remains cautious as the trade agreement appears to be more of a temporary truce rather than a comprehensive resolution, contributing to mixed market reactions [2] Market Sentiment - The combination of the Fed's rate cut, uncertainty surrounding the December meeting, and the lack of substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has created a complex environment that favors gold while pressuring stock markets [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.99%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.57%, reflecting the negative impact of these factors on equity markets [1] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are facing potential short-term pullback risks, with the $3900 level being a critical support point that traders should monitor [4] - The price action has shown a struggle to maintain levels above $4030, indicating a possible consolidation phase around $4010, with traders advised to watch for resistance near $4020/4045 and support at $3985/3920 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Sino-US negotiations concluded, the market's trading expectations were realized, and risk appetite significantly contracted. In the short - term, the market faces adjustment risks due to capital realization pressure, but in the long - run, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. [2][3] - The prices of precious metals may fluctuate in the short - term; copper, aluminum, and other base metals are expected to maintain high - level range - bound oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin prices are in adjustment phases; industrial silicon is expected to be strongly range - bound; lithium carbonate prices may fluctuate widely; nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, awaiting new upward drivers; and the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weak. [4][6][8][12][14][16][17][19][22][24] - Steel prices are expected to be range - bound, iron ore prices will oscillate, soybean and rapeseed meal prices will be strongly range - bound, and palm oil prices will be weakly range - bound. [26][27][28][30] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: After the Sino - US summit, the average tariff faced by China decreased by 10%, and the Sino - US game entered a stage of truce. The Nasdaq fell about 1%, the gold price rebounded over 2% to the $4000 mark, the US dollar index rose to 99.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly, copper prices dropped over 2%, and oil prices remained flat. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market rose and then fell, with nearly 4100 stocks closing lower and the trading volume reaching 2.46 trillion. The lithium battery and shipping sectors led the gains, while the ChiNext and STAR Market sectors led the losses. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market priced in all negative factors, and short - and long - term interest rates both declined. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices rebounded slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 0.94% to $4038.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.71% to $48.73 per ounce. The market has doubts about the actual effect of the Sino - US trade agreement, and precious metals prices may oscillate in the short - term. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract was strongly range - bound, and LME copper pulled back at night. The Sino - US trade situation eased, but the path of global central banks turning to easing is uncertain. Fundamentally, overseas mine disruptions continue, and non - US inventory is low. Short - term copper prices are expected to maintain high - level range - bound oscillations. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21280 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The market continues to digest the Fed's interest - rate cut decision. The Sino - US trade agreement is optimistic, but there are supply disturbances overseas and environmental restrictions on some downstream industries in the north. Aluminum prices are in high - level range - bound oscillations. [8][9][10] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2791 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. The supply side is basically stable this week, the spot market trading is light, and the impact of environmental restriction news on the market is limited. Attention should be paid to the expansion of maintenance and production - reduction capacity. [11] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract was range - bound, and LME zinc oscillated weakly. The market digested Powell's hawkish remarks, and zinc prices adjusted. The supply in November is expected to remain high, with limited increase, and consumption is entering the off - peak season. Zinc prices are affected by macro and market sentiment in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated narrowly. The supply side changed little, demand marginally weakened, and social inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. The lead market shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and prices are expected to maintain high - level narrow - range oscillations. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated weakly. The market lowered the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level, but supply - side disturbances will limit the downward adjustment space. [16] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was strongly range - bound. The supply side is stable, with Xinjiang's operating rate rising and Sichuan and Yunnan's output falling after the dry season. The demand side has mixed signals. The social inventory decreased slightly last week, and the futures price is expected to continue to be strongly range - bound. [17][18] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely, and spot prices rose. The new energy vehicle industry has mixed demand signals. With the increase in positions and trading volume, the long - short contradiction is intensifying, and it is advisable to wait and see. [19][20][21] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The Sino - US high - level meeting reached multiple consensuses, but the fundamental supply pressure is strong. Nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, with limited room for a deep decline, waiting for upward drivers. [22][23] 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated weakly, and the glass main contract also showed a weak trend. Glass production is stable, but there is supply pressure. The downstream has structural differentiation, and the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weak, with attention paid to previous lows for support. [24][25] 3.13 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded. Steel production and apparent demand increased, and inventory decreased. In the short - term, the pressure eased, but with the cold weather, the supply - demand situation will turn weak. Steel prices are expected to be range - bound. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. Steel production increased, and steel mills actively purchased raw materials. Supply pressure was partially relieved, and port inventory decreased. After the macro - level positive factors were realized, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. [27] 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The drought in US soybean - growing areas eased, and the soybean production forecast in Brazil's Paraná state increased. China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, and short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be strongly range - bound. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures fell slightly. After the Sino - US high - level meeting, the market digested Powell's hawkish remarks. The current driving news is scarce, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. [30] 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The trading data of various metals, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., are provided, showing closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. [31] 3.18 Industrial Data - The industrial data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including contract prices, warehouse receipts, inventory, spot premiums, and price ratios, are presented, along with their changes over time. [32][34][35]