Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. For butadiene, the short - term price is likely to experience a pullback, but the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoints - **Supply**: The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased significantly this week. The production was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the production will continue to rise next week [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while that of sample trading enterprises increased [4]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is around 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is relatively strong, with upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR spread enters a short - term oscillatory range [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased this week, with a production of 103,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The increase in production was mainly due to the restart of the Shenghong Petrochemical plant [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline this period, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The sample port inventory decreased to a low level for the year, with the latest inventory in East China ports at around 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the butadiene spot price is expected to pull back, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate and production of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations. Some plants have experienced shutdowns and restarts, affecting the overall supply [14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have also fluctuated, affected by factors such as import and export prices and market demand [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacities of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have been increasing, with new production capacities put into operation in multiple enterprises in recent years [17]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance Conditions of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have shown fluctuations, and some plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance [20][21][22]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacities of ABS and SBS have also been expanding. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. In 2024, the SBS capacity increased by 160,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [26]. - **Inventory - side**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have all shown certain trends of change over time [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber has shown fluctuations, and the operating rates of different plants vary. Some plants have restarted, while others have planned shutdowns for maintenance [35][36]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown different trends over time [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have shown certain fluctuations [40][41]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber have all shown different trends of change [46][47]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends of change, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be in a volatile pattern. For butadiene, the short - term price is expected to correct, and in the long - term, it will re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - The production capacity of previously restarted high - cis butadiene rubber plants was released, and the load of an individual plant in North China increased. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. Yanshan Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant has produced high - grade products after restarting. It is expected that the production of domestic butadiene rubber will continue to increase next week [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline in the next cycle. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was lower than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. Due to the influence of macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and some arbitrageurs actively tried to buy, resulting in a slight decrease in the inventory of sample producers and an increase in the inventory of sample traders [4]. View - In the short term, the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from a high level and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. On Friday night, with a large number of speculative funds leaving the market, the commodity index fell from a high level, and synthetic rubber followed suit. In addition, with the strengthening of the basis, the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market is expected to be released, bringing supply - side selling pressure to the spot market. In the medium term, butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate mainly due to three reasons: the anti - involution policy is still in progress, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; the overall rubber sector is supported by fluctuations, and the raw material prices in Thailand have stabilized; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the inventory of synthetic rubber sample enterprises decreasing slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the tight supply of port goods due to the low arrival volume of butadiene in July [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. When the main BR2509 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the monthly holding cost is about 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity, which will increase the pressure on the upper space of the futures market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation is 11,500 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is relatively strong, with the upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and the lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no strategy for inter - delivery spread trading, and the NR - BR price difference will enter a volatile range in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - Some plants restarted operation this week, increasing the domestic butadiene supply. The output this period was 103,400 tons, a 2.99% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a 2.04% increase from the previous period. The increase in output was mainly due to the restart of Shenghong Petrochemical's plant [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. For ABS, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with no significant increase. For SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with limited price changes [5]. Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.07% week - on - week, and the overall inventory fluctuation was limited. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 21.50% week - on - week, reaching a record low for the year due to reasons such as weather - related delays in some ship arrivals and limited imports in July, resulting in tight tradable volumes in the main port storage areas [5]. View - In the short term, as commodities correct and trading volume weakens, the spot price of butadiene is expected to decline. However, the decline is expected to be limited as the arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. In the long term, the supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected to re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude of expansion being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. Supply - side (Capacity and Maintenance) - Many plants have new production capacity coming on - stream from 2024 to 2025, with a total of 380,000 tons in 2024 and 860,000 tons in 2025. There have also been multiple plant maintenance events, affecting production capacity utilization [10][12][15]. Demand - side - The production capacity of downstream butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber has been expanding, and new plants have been put into operation. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [17][26]. Inventory - side - The weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have shown different trends over time, with the current port inventory at a low level due to factors such as limited imports and weather - related delays [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Butadiene Rubber) Supply - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber have changed. Some plants have restarted, and some have planned maintenance. The production cost, profit, and import - export volume of butadiene rubber also have corresponding trends [36][37][41]. Demand - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown different trends over time, which will affect the demand for butadiene rubber [51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a correction, while the medium - term outlook is a sideways trend. Short - term, on Friday night, with a large amount of speculative capital leaving the market, the commodity index declined from its high, and methanol futures followed suit. Also, as the basis strengthens, it is expected that the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market will be released, bringing selling pressure to the supply side of the spot market. Medium - term, methanol is expected to move sideways. Firstly, the anti - involution policy is still in progress, which supports the overall valuation of commodities. Secondly, in terms of supply, domestic methanol maintenance has increased and July imports are low, so the domestic supply of methanol has shrunk in the short term, and port inventories have decreased more than expected due to slow unloading [2][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spreads - Multiple charts are presented, including those showing the basis, monthly spreads, and number of warehouse receipts of methanol, as well as domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials over the years from 2020 - 2025 [7][12][16]. 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, there have been multiple new methanol plants in China, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8400000 tons in 2025. Internationally, the total capacity expansion was 3550000 tons in 2024 and is expected to be 3300000 tons in 2025 [24]. - **Maintenance**: There are many domestic methanol plants under maintenance, with some in long - term shutdown, and the maintenance situation varies by region and enterprise [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: This week, China's methanol production was 1898825 tons, an increase of 29100 tons or 1.56% from last week, and the industry capacity utilization rate was 83.98%, a 1.56% increase month - on - month. There are also charts showing methanol production and capacity utilization in China and different regions over the years from 2018 - 2025 [4][27]. - **Import - related**: Charts show China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [36]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts present the production cost and profit of methanol from different raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [41][45]. 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Charts show the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE in China from 2020 - 2025 [51]. - **Downstream Profit**: Charts show the production profits of methanol downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Procurement Volume**: Charts show the procurement volumes of methanol by downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025, including MTO and traditional downstream industries [67][72]. - **Traditional Downstream Raw Material Inventory**: Charts show the raw material inventories of traditional downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [77]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Charts show the weekly methanol factory inventories in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [82]. - **Port Inventory**: Charts show the weekly methanol port inventories in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025. As of July 23, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 339800 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons or 3.55% from the previous period; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 244800 tons, an increase of 1700 tons or 0.70% from the previous period. This week, methanol port inventories unexpectedly decreased, and the unloading speed was much lower than expected, while South China ports continued to accumulate inventory [4][88].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report highlights that a new round of "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" is about to be released, which will accelerate capacity structure optimization in the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on cyclical recovery and supply-side optimization [6] - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost investment opportunities in various segments of the chemical industry, particularly in civil explosives, all-steel tires, cement, and specialty chemicals [6] - The TDI market is experiencing upward price pressure due to Covestro's forced production halt following an electrical fire, with TDI prices rising to 14,913 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30.82% increase compared to the previous month [6] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Juhua Co., Haohua Technology, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, Hubei Yihua, and Tongyi Zhong [6] - In the civil explosives and all-steel tire sectors, companies like Sailun Tire, Linglong Tire, and Wind God Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the unmanned mining truck market, with a projected sales penetration rate increasing from approximately 6% in 2024 to over 50% by 2030, indicating explosive growth [10][12] Group 3: Market Trends - The report notes that the domestic market for unmanned mining trucks is entering a rapid scaling phase, with a compound annual growth rate of 305.8% expected from 2022 to 2024 [10] - The global market for unmanned mining solutions is projected to grow from 700 million USD in 2024 to 8.1 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.0% [12] - The report indicates that traditional mining trucks are in a highly competitive field, with major international players holding over 90% of the market share, presenting a significant opportunity for domestic companies to replace traditional models with unmanned solutions [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on July 24, 2025. Different futures are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and macro - economic conditions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight. Suggest rolling long on the monthly spread. The domestic plant operating rate has decreased, and some plants have reduced loads unexpectedly. PTA's operating rate has rebounded, and overall supply has increased. There is still a profit in PX processing [9]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is upward. Pay attention to the long - PTA short - PF spread. Downstream polyester inventory has decreased, and the probability of production cuts has declined. The inventory accumulation speed of PTA has slowed down [9]. - **MEG**: Conduct a reverse spread on the 9 - 1 monthly spread. The unilateral trend has turned upward. Rising coal prices support the cost of coal - chemical products, and the long - term trend is expected to be upward [10]. 2. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. The trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has declined slightly. The export of small - passenger - car tires in the first half of 2025 was generally at a high level, but there may be a decline in July [11][14][15]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is supported to move sideways. The port inventory of butadiene is at a low level. In the short term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually rising, but in the medium term, the supply increase may limit the price increase [16][18]. 4. Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The total weekly output has decreased, the refinery inventory has decreased, and the social inventory has increased slightly. The operating rate of refineries has decreased [20][30]. 5. LLDPE - The LLDPE market is expected to move within a range. The market price has mostly increased, but the trading volume is average. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream is in the off - season [31][32][33]. 6. PP - The spot price of PP has increased slightly, but the trading is light. The futures price has risen, and the basis has changed. The market sentiment is average, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [36][37]. 7. Caustic Soda - The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. The price in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply pressure will gradually increase in July and August, but the export can digest the new - capacity pressure. The demand is in the off - season, but there is cost support [39][40][41]. 8. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move weakly sideways. The futures price has increased slightly, and the spot price has been stable. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand situation of the living - paper market is weak [44][46][47]. 9. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price has decreased, and the basis has changed. The spot price in the Shahe area has increased significantly, and the futures - related merchants' purchases have increased [49]. 10. Methanol - Methanol is expected to move upward. The spot price index has increased. The supply has decreased in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the acceptance of high - priced goods by traditional downstream industries [54][55]. 11. Urea - Urea has entered a sideways pattern after the price dropped from a high level. The trading volume has decreased for two consecutive days, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The demand is weak, but there is some support from the "anti - involution" policy [57][59]. 12. Styrene - Styrene is a short - position allocation under strong market sentiment. The futures price has changed, and the profit margin has decreased [60]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has changed. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be stable and fluctuate [63]. 14. LPG - LPG is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price has decreased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have increased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [66][68][74]. 15. PVC - The rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain. The spot price has weakened. The supply reduction drive is insufficient in the second half of the year, and the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. The export is affected, and the domestic demand is weak [78][79][80]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The downward trend of fuel oil continues, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to move weakly sideways, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [81]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to move weakly sideways. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the October contract and hold reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. The freight rate index has declined [83].

2025 年 07 月 24 日 尿素：成交转弱，高位回落，步入震荡格局 | | 杨鈜汉 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,773 | 1,817 | -44 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,788 | 1,806 | -18 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 288,338 | 314,653 | -26315 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 180,800 | 191,764 | -10964 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,030,856 | 1,136,221 | -10536 ...

【行业新闻】 业 服 务 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,875 | 12,100 | -225 3695 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 125,082 | 121,387 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 48,591 | 49,351 | -760 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 750,681 | 730,033 | 20647 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 125 | -100 | 225 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | | 35 | 15 | 20 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,700 | 11,800 | -100 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,750 | 11,800 | ...

Real Estate - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 30 core cities increased by 22.6% year-on-year, totaling 48.63 million square meters, accounting for 52.1% of the total residential land transaction area in 100 cities [3] - The average floor price of residential land reached 12,009 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [3] - The overall premium rate for the core 30 cities was 13.5%, up by 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Petrochemical Industry - The government is expected to introduce a work plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, which may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and promote healthy industry development [3] - The assessment phase for the elimination of old production capacity in the chemical industry is currently underway, which is anticipated to optimize supply-side dynamics [3] - A significant proportion of outdated refining facilities in China suggests that their elimination could enhance industry competitiveness [3] High-end Manufacturing - Exports to North America continued to decline in June, while the export of engineering machinery maintained a high level of prosperity [3] - From January to June, exports of electric tools and lawn mowers to North America decreased by 7% and 4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The cumulative export growth rate for major engineering machinery categories remained in double digits, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing growth rates of 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [3] Company Insights: Visionox - Visionox has maintained its leading position in the global liquid crystal TV main control board market, with shipments of 67.22 million, 56.23 million, and 67.32 million units for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [4] - The company's market share in global liquid crystal TV main control boards was 33.01%, 28.19%, and 32.72% for the same years [4] Company Insights: Bilibili - Bilibili's revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to reach 7.33 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [4] - The revenue breakdown for major business segments includes gaming at 1.61 billion yuan (up 60% year-on-year), VAS at 2.82 billion yuan (up 10%), advertising at 2.42 billion yuan (up 19%), and e-commerce at 480 million yuan (down 8%) [4] - The expected gross profit for Q2 2025 is 2.68 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.5% [4] Company Insights: Haier Smart Home - Haier is expected to benefit from climate change as Europe experiences increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves [5] - The report from the European Medium-Range Weather Forecast Centre indicates that June 2025 may be one of the hottest on record for Europe [5] Company Insights: Zhou Hei Ya - Zhou Hei Ya is projected to achieve revenue of 1.2 to 1.24 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% to 4.7% [6] - The company expects a profit of 90 to 113 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.2% to 94.8% [6] - The management mechanism of Zhou Hei Ya is noted for its flexibility, with a clear and prioritized strategy that is expected to lead to ongoing operational improvements [6]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical commodity prices are performing strongly due to multiple factors including anti-involution policies, infrastructure demand from the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, and supply disruptions from overseas chemical companies [1][2] Group 1: Industry Policies and Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to launch a work plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry, aiming to eliminate outdated production capacity and promote healthy industry development [2][4] - The current phase of eliminating outdated capacity in the chemical industry is entering an evaluation stage, which is expected to optimize the supply side and enhance the overall competitiveness of chemical facilities [2][4] - The "anti-involution" policy is driving the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is a significant factor in improving market sentiment [5] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - A fire at Covestro's plant in Dormagen, Germany, has caused a supply disruption of key raw materials for TDI production, leading to a short-term contraction in TDI supply and a strong price increase [3] - As of July 22, the average market price for TDI in China reached 16,250 yuan per ton, with a price increase of over 4,000 yuan per ton since the beginning of July, reflecting a 26% increase year-to-date [3] Group 3: Key Products and Indices - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its connected funds (017855/017856) track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which consists of stocks from the petrochemical sector, primarily focusing on basic chemicals and petroleum and petrochemicals [6]

2025 年 07 月 23 日 尿素：现货企稳，上方空间收窄 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,817 | 1,812 | 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,806 | 1,807 | - 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 314,653 | 329,271 | -14618 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 191,764 | 195,949 | -4185 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,136,221 | 1,189,793 | -53572 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 2 3 | 1 8 | 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -97 | -92 | - 5 | | | | 东光 ...