Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is to oscillate and consolidate. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term has decreased. Although there is support due to the need for a loose monetary and credit environment, the upward momentum is insufficient because the macro - demand has resilience and the urgency of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is weak [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Due to the existing problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand and the policy support for technological innovation and consumption internal circulation, the future monetary and credit environment needs to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the macro - demand has resilience, and the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment has recovered as some negative factors eased. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading cooled the equity market, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need improvement. In the next stage, facing significant external uncertainties, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs further consolidation, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year as internal and external constraints weaken. The issuance pace of interest rate bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [102][103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2603 contract rose 1.03%, the 10 - year T2603 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2603 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 contract rose 0.02%. The trading volume of TF, T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased. The open interest of the TS main contract decreased, while that of TF, T, and TL main contracts increased [12][27]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. Fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand were introduced, including a 500 billion yuan private investment special guarantee plan and loan discount policies. The National Development and Reform Commission planned to implement measures to boost employment and income, and support the service industry. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was issued [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The US economy showed strong data, with the Q3 2025 GDP final value growing at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The situation in Greenland eased, and the US president reached a "framework agreement" with NATO on the Greenland issue [35][102]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread widened, the 5 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract's inter - period spread fluctuated [41][50][54]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [68]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while the 1 - month Shibor rate decreased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.49%. The yields of treasury bonds decreased across the board, with the 1.7 - year yield decreasing by 1 - 4.3bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields decreasing by 1.1bp and 4.85bp to 1.83% and 2.26% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened [72][78]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.569038 trillion yuan, the total repayment was 1.019335 trillion yuan, and the net financing was 549.703 billion yuan [85]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9929, up 149 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates narrowed. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield increased, the VIX index rose sharply and then fell. The 10 - year treasury bond yield in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium remained the same as last week [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - **Domestic**: In 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive growth trend, but there were significant internal structural differences. The growth momentum mainly relied on strong exports and stable production, while domestic demand recovery was more policy - driven, and the self - growth momentum of investment and consumption was insufficient [102]. - **Overseas**: The US economic data was strong, and the consumer resilience supported economic expansion. The situation in Greenland improved [102]. - **Outlook**: With the easing of some negative factors, the bond market sentiment has recovered. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is waiting for new information for directional selection [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. The document mainly shows data on global asset market performance, stock index futures trading, and bond futures trading 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 10 - year treasury bonds in various major economies are presented. For example, the US is at 4.246, the UK at 4.473, and China at 1.830 [2] - **2 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 2 - year treasury bonds in different countries are given. The US 2 - year yield is 3.607, and China's 1 - year yield is 1.275 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are shown. For instance, the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.288, and to South African rand is 16.133 [2] - **Stock Indices**: The latest values of major economy stock indices are provided. The S&P 500 is 6913.350, the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 49384.010, and the Shanghai Composite Index is 4122.576 [2] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of different credit - bond indices are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit - bond index is 3554.310, and the euro - area high - yield credit - bond index is 412.940 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are given. A - shares closed at 4122.58 with a 0.14% increase [3] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and their环比changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are presented. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.17 with a - 0.01环比 change [3] - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rates and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are provided. The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.63 with a - 0.03环比 change [3] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and - medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are shown. The latest fund flow in A - shares is - 682.69 [3] - **Transaction Amount**: The latest values and环比 changes of trading amounts in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and - medium - sized board, and ChiNext are given. The latest trading amount in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 26917.33 with a 911.34环比 change [4] - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC are presented. The basis of IF is - 4.31 with a - 0.09% spread [4] Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are given. T2303 closed at 108.15 with a - 0.05% change [4] - **Funding Rates**: The R001 is 1.4822%, R007 is 1.5473%, and SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5980%, with daily changes of - 6.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP respectively [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market focuses on the price - rising chain, and the bond market is in a long - short game. The stock index futures are desensitized to negative factors, the stock index options should appropriately supplement call options for defense, and the bond market in the treasury bond futures has a long - short game with a slight decline [1]. - For stock index futures, the equity market oscillated upward on Thursday. The market is desensitized to the sporadic selling of broad - based ETFs. The ChiNext and STAR Market are the best in style, while the SSE 50 is weak. Resource stocks have become market hotspots, and the value of resource products is re - evaluated. In the future, institutional funds are expected to take over the pricing power, and the CSI 500 and ChiNext/STAR Market styles have comparative advantages [1][7]. - For stock index options, the trading volume of each option variety mostly declined, while the open interest increased. Some investors may trade call options for hedging. It is recommended to sell call options for covered增厚 and appropriately supplement call options for defense in the short term [1][7]. - For treasury bond futures, the main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment cooled but was not very weak. After the market closed, the central bank's MLF over - renewal and the statement about the space for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts improved the sentiment of the ultra - long - term bond market. After the MLF over - renewal and the end of the large tax period, the capital may be relaxed [2][8]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **View**: Desensitized to negative factors [7] - **Logic**: The equity market oscillated upward on Thursday. The market is desensitized to the sporadic selling of broad - based ETFs. The ChiNext and STAR Market are the best in style, while the SSE 50 is weak. The impact of the adjustment of implicit margin for margin trading is weakening. Resource stocks have become market hotspots, and the value of resource products is re - evaluated. In the future, the influence of regulatory cooling will gradually weaken, and the market will be driven by funds. Institutional funds are expected to take over the pricing power, and the CSI 500 and ChiNext/STAR Market styles have comparative advantages [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IC [7] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [7] Stock Index Options - **View**: Supplement call options for defense in the short term [7] - **Logic**: The trading volume of each option variety mostly declined, while the open interest increased. Considering the weak option sentiment index and the strengthening of implied volatility, it is speculated that some investors trade call options for hedging. It is recommended to sell call options for covered增厚 and appropriately supplement call options for defense in the short term [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered strategy [7] - **Outlook**: Oscillate [7] Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: Long - short game, slight decline in the bond market [8] - **Logic**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment cooled but was not very weak. The improvement of the equity market sentiment, the tightening of the overnight capital due to the tax payment and the small net injection of reverse repurchase by the central bank, and the stable open interest of the main futures contracts and the support from the cash bond allocation disk led to a limited adjustment. After the market closed, the central bank's MLF over - renewal and the statement about the space for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts improved the sentiment of the ultra - long - term bond market. After the MLF over - renewal and the end of the large tax period, the capital may be relaxed [2][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis; Basis strategy: pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of TL; Curve strategy: the curve may flatten first and then steepen [8] - **Outlook**: Oscillate [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, Treasury bond spot yields increased collectively. The 1 - 7Y maturity yields rose by about 0.25 - 0.75bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields increased by about 0.65bp and 0.10bp to 1.84% and 2.26% respectively. Treasury bond futures weakened slightly, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.05%, and 0.07% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.51%. [4] - In 2025 Q4, China's GDP grew by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. December's financial data exceeded expectations, but the growth rate of social financing continued to decline, mainly dragged down by government bonds. Credit increased slightly less than expected, with marginal improvement in medium - and long - term corporate financing demand, but the trend of household deleveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. In December, China's import and export scale hit a monthly high, with annual exports growing by 6.1% and the structure continuously optimizing, especially high - tech product exports growing by 13.2%. [4] - Overseas, concerns about the US labor market eased. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped to a recent low, dashing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January. [4] - As some negative factors eased, bond market sentiment has recovered. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading cooled the equity market, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. In 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive growth trend, but there were still structural contradictions. With the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins and the weakening of internal and external constraints, the central bank indicated that there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The issuance of interest - bearing bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about long - term bond supply pressure. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.05%, 0.04%, 0.02%, and 0.07% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased by 26,132, 5,611, and 38,868 respectively, while the trading volume of TS main contract increased by 930. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread decreased by 0.01, the T2603 - 2606 spread increased by 0.02, etc. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The T main contract's open interest increased by 1,012, the TF and TS main contracts' open interest decreased by 250 and 398 respectively, and the TL main contract's open interest decreased by 120. The net short positions of T and TF top 20 increased by 2,574 and 193 respectively, while the net short positions of TS and TL top 20 decreased by 181 and 1,179 respectively. [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Data - **CTD Net Price**: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 240022.IB (2y) which increased by 0.0090. [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y and 3y active bonds increased by 7.75bp and 0.25bp respectively, the 5y yield remained unchanged, and the 7y and 10y yields decreased by 0.65bp and 0.20bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates increased, such as the overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 7.01bp, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 9.10bp. The Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 0.70bp. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operation - The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 210.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 179.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase. The net investment was 30.9 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that this year, the focus in urban renewal is to promote the renovation of old urban residential areas, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of small public spaces in cities. The government will also stabilize the real estate market by implementing the project company system in real - estate development, the lead - bank system in real - estate financing, and the spot - sale system in commercial housing sales. [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment update funds in 2026 has been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects in multiple fields and driving a total investment of over 460 billion yuan. [3] - The Trump administration and NATO reached a "framework agreement" on Greenland. Denmark will transfer the sovereignty of a small piece of land on Greenland to the US for military base construction. US President Trump said that based on the meeting with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte, they reached an agreement on the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the entire Arctic region, and he will not implement the tariff measures originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. [3] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - At 20:30 on January 22, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the December 2025 monetary policy meeting. At 21:30 on January 22, the US will release the November 2025 PCE price index. [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2603 are both in a state of shock, with an intraday weakening trend, generally in a shock - consolidation state due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1] - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, with upward pressure and downward support. Although there is still an expectation of future interest rate cuts in the context of the Fed moving towards an easing cycle, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the monetary policy is mainly structural, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties involved are TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded in shock yesterday. The central bank announced that the January LPR interest rate remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The current macro - economy has strong resilience, but there are still concerns on the demand side. The policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation. The future monetary and credit environment will still be relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of future interest rate cuts. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the monetary policy is mainly structural, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The latest yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.294, UK 4.457, France 3.526, Germany 2.858, Italy 3.501, Spain 3.254, Switzerland 0.248, Greece 3.492, Japan 2.351, Brazil 6.271, China 1.832, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.782, New Zealand 4.515 [1] - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 2 - year Treasury bonds are: US 3.598, UK 3.667, Germany 2.068, Japan 1.212, Italy 2.168, China (1Y yield) 1.270, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.102 [1] - **USD Exchange Rates against Major Emerging - Market Currencies**: The latest exchange rates are: South Africa zar 5.376, Russia 16.425, South Korean won 1477.550, Thai baht 31.075, Malaysian ringgit 4.055 [1] - **Renminbi**: The latest values are: on - shore RMB 6.961, off - shore RMB 6.956, mid - price 7.001, 12 - month NDF 6.834 [1] - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: The latest indices are: Dow Jones 6796.860, S&P 500 48488.590, Industrial Index 22954.320, Nasdaq 67683.380, Mexican Index 10126.780, UK Index 8062.580, France CAC 24703.120, Germany DAX 17429.100, Spanish Index (not available), Russian Index (not available), Nikkei 52991.100, Hang Seng Index 26487.510, Shanghai Composite Index 4113.649, Taiwan Index 31759.990, South Korean Index 4885.750, Indian Index 9134.700, Thai Index 1296.370, Malaysian Index 1699.060, Australian Index 9138.573, Index 1480.630 [1] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values are: US investment - grade credit bond index 3534.390, Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index 266.750, emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 289.830, US high - yield credit bond index 2925.390, Eurozone high - yield credit bond index 411.820, emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1823.969 [1] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4113.65, 4718.88, 3070.65, 3277.98, and 8247.80 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.01%, - 0.33%, - 0.17%, - 1.79%, and - 0.48% respectively [2] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.22, 11.74, 37.41, 27.14, and 19.17 respectively. The环比 changes are 0.00, 0.03, - 0.19, - 0.58, and - 0.20 respectively [2] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.61 and 2.36 respectively. The环比 changes are 0.01 and 0.03 respectively [2] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 1609.92, - 783.62, (not available), - 635.48, and - 346.24 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 890.02, - 614.69, (not available), - 245.35, and - 396.73 respectively [2] Group 3: Other Trading Data - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are 27776.57, 6719.61, 1757.36, 5667.08, and 7026.80 respectively. The环比 changes are 693.08, 168.12, 95.56, 190.51, and - 64.76 respectively [3] - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 10.28, 4.75, and 1.00 respectively, with spreads of - 0.22%, 0.15%, and 0.01% respectively [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.18, 105.88, 108.11, and 105.88 respectively. The percentage changes are 0.13%, 0.09%, 0.12%, and 0.06% respectively [3] - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.4212%, 1.5429%, and 1.6000% respectively. The daily changes are - 11.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP respectively [3]

Group 1 - The price of South Korea's 10-year government bond futures has fallen to the lowest point since April 2024 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The 2025 GDP growth rate was 5.0%, meeting the annual target, but the Q4 GDP growth and social consumer retail growth slowed down, indicating strong macro - economic resilience but concerns on the demand side [5]. - The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations for an interest rate cut in the future under the Fed's move towards a loose cycle. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].

研究所 基本面分析报告 金融衍生品日报 2025 年 01 月 19 日 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 ：021-65789277 ：sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：沈忱 CFA ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 金融衍生品日报 一、财经要闻 1. 国家统计局 1 月 19 日公布，国家统计局 1 月 19 日公布，中国 2025 年 12 月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长 0.9%，预期增长 1.5%，前值增长 1.3%。 2. 中国 2025年 12 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 0.9%，预期增长 1.5%，前值增长 1.3%。 3. 2025 年 12 月份，70 个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大。 4. 中国 2025 年固定资产投资（不含农户）485186 亿元，同比下降 3.8%，1-11 月同比下 降 2.6%。其中，民间固定资产投资比上年下降 6.4%。从环比看，12 月份固定资产投资（不 含农 ...