Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the beauty industry Core Insights - The children's cosmetics market is experiencing rapid growth, with over 28,000 products expected to be registered in China by 2025, driven by strong consumer demand and an increase in parental acceptance [3] - The luxury beauty segment is facing challenges, with the global luxury market experiencing zero growth for two consecutive years, leading to a significant decline in sales in China [5] - The rise of niche and domestic brands is evident, with Chinese brands occupying 16 out of the top 20 spots on the Douyin beauty list in July [3] - The "blind box" sales model is gaining popularity on Douyin, stimulating consumer spending but raising concerns about product quality and after-sales service [5] - The beauty market is undergoing a brutal reshuffle, with many high-growth startups facing closure due to capital pressures and operational challenges [6] - The trend of "economic upward beauty" is emerging, characterized by bold colors and nostalgic aesthetics, reflecting consumer desires for emotional expression [6] - Brands are increasingly focusing on women's narratives and social responsibility, aligning marketing strategies with evolving gender perceptions [8] Industry Trends - The children's cosmetics market is projected to reach $2.36 billion by 2032, driven by the Alpha generation [3] - The luxury beauty segment is struggling, with a reported $5.7 billion loss attributed to reduced spending by Generation Z [5] - The "blind box" sales model has expanded into various sectors, including beauty, and is driven by Douyin's algorithms and consumer demand for surprise [5] - The average lifespan of brands in the clean beauty segment is only 3.2 years, highlighting the challenges faced by new entrants [6] - The nostalgic "economic upward beauty" trend is gaining traction, with brands leveraging this to market multifunctional and cost-effective products [6] - Women's marketing is shifting towards authentic needs and systematic strategies, with brands integrating gender equality into their social responsibility practices [8] - Light luxury brands are entering the fragrance market as a growth strategy, reflecting a shift from single product sales to lifestyle branding [8] Top Brand News - L'Oréal's performance in China has stabilized after five quarters of decline, but the overall North Asia market saw a 1.1% drop due to weak tourism retail [11] - Jinbo Bio has achieved significant growth in the medical beauty sector, with revenue increasing from 233 million to 1.443 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025 [12] - Pizhuan's new product line focuses on health-oriented whitening, combining traditional herbal culture with modern technology [12]

Core Insights - Viya remains a dominant figure in the live-streaming e-commerce sector, not only due to her exceptional sales capabilities but also her support for various domestic brands [1][4] - Her rigorous product selection process has established a consumer consensus that products in her live-streaming sessions are trustworthy [3][4] Group 1: Product Selection and Quality Control - Viya and her team review a vast number of merchant applications daily, ensuring only top-quality products make it to her live-streaming sessions [3] - An example is the innovation and upgrade of the pear syrup from Anhui, where Viya's team provided comprehensive solutions to enhance product quality and marketability [4] Group 2: Brand Development and Consumer Insights - Viya actively participates in the entire growth cycle of brands, collaborating with them to refine products based on consumer feedback and her expertise [4][5] - Brands like Juzhi Biotechnology have benefited from her insights, leading to rapid growth and consumer popularity [4] Group 3: Impact on Domestic Brands - Viya's influence has helped various domestic brands, from established names like Li Ning to emerging brands like ITIB, to penetrate the market and resonate with younger consumers [4][5] - Her role as a mentor in events like the Old Brand Carnival has facilitated the integration of traditional brands with modern trends, promoting the transformation of old brands into "new national trends" [5] Group 4: Long-term Strategy and Industry Standards - The approach of long-term commitment and professional innovation in empowering domestic brands has set a benchmark for the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid rise of domestic brands in China, showcasing their high quality, affordability, and effectiveness, which has led to a significant shift in consumer preferences towards domestic products [2][4][6]. Group 1: Rise of Domestic Brands - Domestic products have transformed from being perceived as low-quality to becoming highly regarded for their quality and design [4]. - Brands like Shilang, Pianzihuang, and Mayinglong are gaining popularity due to their professional capabilities and effective products [5][6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of "Made in China" as a symbol of quality and innovation in the current market [6]. Group 2: Recommended Domestic Products - A selection of high-quality domestic products is presented, including: - Shilang Anti-Hair Loss Shampoo, priced at 69.9 yuan for 2 bottles, known for its effectiveness in reducing hair loss [9][39]. - Guangzhou Baiyunshan Sanfu Plaster, priced at 69 yuan for 4 boxes, used for alleviating dampness and cold [42][54]. - Rongsheng Astaxanthin Mask, priced at 49 yuan for 30 pieces, praised for its skin-tightening and brightening effects [68][91]. - Oushiman Electric Eye Cream, priced at 99 yuan for 3 tubes, recognized for its moisturizing and anti-aging properties [95][112]. - Teniina Luxurious Innerwear, priced at 69 yuan per piece, noted for its comfort and stylish design [115][133]. - Aicao Health Cooling Cushion, priced at 29 yuan, designed to expel dampness and improve comfort [137][173]. - Bodhi Root Double Circle Bracelet, priced at 49 yuan, made from genuine materials and appreciated for its aesthetic appeal [175][208]. - New Balance Sports Shoes, priced at 99 yuan, highlighted for their comfort and versatility [210][237]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Feedback - The article encourages readers to share their experiences with domestic products, emphasizing that consumer recognition contributes to the growth of domestic brands [8][9]. - Positive feedback from users is highlighted, showcasing the effectiveness and satisfaction derived from using these domestic products [29][37].

Core Viewpoint - Upmood Holdings (02145) shares rose over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, following a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and profit growth driven by strategic brand and channel optimization [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Upmood Holdings expects revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1][1] - The net profit is projected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][1] Strategic Insights - The revenue and profit increase is attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, benefiting from a multi-channel and multi-category approach, as well as substantial growth from the new growth curve, Newpage [1][1] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and precisely positioning new brands [1][1] - CICC highlighted that the profit forecast exceeded expectations due to improved profit margins driven by channel and brand structure optimization [1][1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Upmood Holdings' stock price increased by 5.3%, with a trading volume of 41.4813 million HKD [1][1] - CICC has maintained an outperform rating for the company and raised the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, driven by positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company anticipates revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - Net profit is expected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2 - The revenue and profit growth are attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, which has benefited from a multi-channel and multi-category strategy, as well as a substantial increase in revenue from the new growth line, Newpage [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and positioning new brands accurately [1] - CICC notes that the company's profit forecast for the first half of the year exceeds expectations, primarily due to the optimization of channel and brand structures, which has led to an unexpected increase in profit margins [1] Group 3 - The company is benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the trend towards cost-effective consumption, while also opening up new growth opportunities in mid-to-high-end and niche markets [1] - CICC maintains an outperform rating for the company and raises the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The new consumption sector in China has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with leading companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu achieving significant revenue and profit growth exceeding 100% compared to the previous year. However, their stock market performance has not met expectations due to high market forecasts and profit-taking activities [2][3] - The Chinese consumer market is currently the second largest globally, accounting for 70%-80% of the U.S. market when calculated at exchange rates, and is the largest when measured by purchasing power. The market is transitioning from growth to a focus on quality and efficiency, creating structural investment opportunities [5] Key Insights and Recommendations - The new consumption sector is expected to maintain strong growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, with a focus on companies with brand, product, or channel advantages. The sector is projected to see mid-single-digit growth in retail sales [1][6] - Macro policies, such as infrastructure investments and childcare subsidies, are anticipated to boost consumer confidence and demand, particularly in the dairy and infant formula sectors. Companies like Yili, Mengniu, and Modern Dairy are recommended for investment [8][9] - The beverage industry remains stable, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng maintaining market share. New product trends include health-focused water and high-concentration juices [10] Sector-Specific Insights Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is expected to reach a supply-demand balance by 2026, with recommendations for leading companies in both dairy products and upstream livestock sectors [9] Beverage Industry - The beverage sector is characterized by strong fundamentals, with Nongfu Spring recovering market share and Dongpeng leading in functional drinks. New product trends are emerging, including health-oriented beverages [10] Snack Industry - The snack sector is experiencing a valuation adjustment, but new product launches and channel expansions are expected to drive growth. Companies like Yanjinpuzi and Weilong are highlighted as key players [12][13] Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector is seeing a resurgence in sentiment due to recent policy changes and infrastructure investments. The sector is still in a destocking phase, but valuations are considered low, making it a good time to invest in high-end brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [18] Pet Economy - The pet economy sector is experiencing a pullback, but companies like Zhongchong and Guibao are expected to benefit from long-term trends such as increasing pet ownership and spending [16][17] Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector has faced challenges, with a negative growth rate in retail sales for cosmetics. However, some brands are showing resilience, and new product launches are expected to accelerate in the third quarter [28] Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics industry is seeing significant advancements, with new products and technologies being approved. The demand for light medical procedures continues to drive growth [29][30] Conclusion - The new consumption sector in China presents numerous investment opportunities, particularly in companies that can leverage brand strength and innovative products. Macro policies are expected to further stimulate demand across various sectors, making it a favorable environment for long-term investments.

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes boosting consumption and breaking the "involution" to promote domestic circulation and achieve economic goals for the year [1] - The focus on domestic demand policies is highlighted as a stable direction to counter external uncertainties, with significant results from consumption-boosting policies in the first half of the year [1] - The expansion of government subsidies for home appliances from 8 categories to 12, including 3C products, indicates a potential for further subsidy expansion in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The estimated consumption subsidies of 138 billion for "trade-in" programs are expected to increase retail sales growth by 1.3 percentage points in the second half of the year [1] - The overall retail sales growth is projected to moderate from 5% in the first half to 4.3% in the second half, with an annual growth rate of 4.6% [1] - Investment opportunities in the consumer sector for 2025 include domestic brands and high-growth emotional consumption sectors, as well as the burgeoning silver economy and AI+ consumption [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bain Capital has initiated an evaluation for exiting its 60.5% stake in Canada Goose, marking the end of a 12-year investment cycle, as the brand's market value has plummeted over 80% from its peak of $7.8 billion to $1.39 billion, primarily due to sluggish sales growth [2][20]. Group 1: Sales Performance and Market Dynamics - Canada Goose's sales growth has drastically declined from 21.54% to 1.1% over the past three fiscal years, with the brand struggling to maintain its high-end positioning amid increasing competition [2][20]. - The brand's revenue in the Greater China region, which had previously surged to CAD 422 million, only saw a slight increase of 1% to CAD 427 million in the following fiscal year, indicating a significant slowdown [6][20]. - Despite attempts to leverage live-streaming sales on platforms like Douyin, the brand's growth trajectory remains challenged, with live-streaming contributing only 7.9% to revenue growth in the Greater China region [6][20]. Group 2: Brand Positioning and Strategy - Canada Goose originally transitioned from a workwear manufacturer to a luxury fashion brand in 2001, with Bain Capital acquiring a controlling stake in 2013 for $250 million, aiming to elevate its market presence through strategic marketing [3][20]. - The brand's pricing strategy, which relied on a three-tier premium model, has been undermined by the introduction of discounting practices and a shift towards lower-priced items, diluting its luxury image [10][12]. - Competitors like Bosideng and KAILAS have adopted more flexible product strategies and pricing models, allowing them to better respond to consumer demands and market trends [11][30]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with 85% of the top 100 brands on Douyin in 2024 being local, highlighting the structural challenges faced by international luxury brands like Canada Goose [21][22]. - The rise of local competitors is attributed to advancements in technology, supply chain efficiency, and a better understanding of consumer preferences, which have allowed them to offer competitive pricing and innovative products [24][25][30]. - Canada Goose's struggle to adapt to the evolving market dynamics and consumer expectations has led to a perception of being out of touch, further complicating its competitive position in China [20][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, highlighting the strong performance of domestic brands amid stricter regulations [1]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 5.4% from July 18 to July 25, 2025, surpassing the Shenwan A Index by 1.2 percentage points [5][6]. - Stricter advertising regulations are expected to benefit leading domestic brands, as new rules will increase operational barriers and allow market share to concentrate among top players [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new product launches as brands prepare for the competitive landscape in the second half of 2025 [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index increased by 3.4%, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 1.2 percentage points, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index rose by 7.7%, exceeding the Shenwan A Index by 5.5 percentage points [5][6]. Key Company Highlights - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, saw revenue grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit turning from a loss of 6 million yuan to a profit of 187 million yuan [17]. - The company has a diverse product matrix with 188 SKUs, a robust supply chain with an annual production capacity of 40 million units, and a comprehensive OMO channel strategy [19]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift in the cosmetics market from quantity to quality, with e-commerce sales expected to account for 47% of total cosmetics sales by 2024, up from 22% in 2016 [13]. - The domestic market is witnessing a rise in local brands, with significant market share gains, particularly in the skincare segment [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market positioning and growth potential, including Up Beauty, Proya, and Marubi, while suggesting to pay attention to Shanghai Jahwa, Betaini, and Huaxi Biological [5].