Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is also "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The end of the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for a further Sino-US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external disturbance risks. Coking coal will return to its own logic. The short - term recommendation is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position [5] - For coking coal, the spot price is stabilizing, and trading volume is gradually picking up. The start - up of mines and coal washing plants is increasing. For coke, the fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts. With the strengthening of coking coal, the cost support is gradually transmitted to coke, and the supply - demand margin of coke is improving [5] Summary by Directory Coking Coal Related Information - On June 26, White House officials stated that the US and China had reached an understanding on how to speed up the transportation of rare earths to the US [1] Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 804.5 yuan/ton (+20.5), the basis is 83.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43 yuan/ton (+0.5) [1] Supply and Demand - The resumption of production at the mine end and the reduction of the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises. The starting rate of 523 mines is reported at 84.49% (+0.78), the starting rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 61.34% (+3.2), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, and downstream inventory decreases. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 499.15 million tons (+13.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 237.39 million tons (-14.08), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (+0.68), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (-3.88), and the port inventory is 303.31 million tons (-8.71) [2] Coke Spot and Futures - The fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - class coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1387.5 yuan/ton (+36), the basis is - 76 yuan/ton (-36), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 40.5 yuan/ton (+7.5) [3] Supply and Demand - Supply decreases, and demand slightly rebounds. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.79% (+0.21), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.18 million tons (+0.57) [3] Inventory - Both upstream and downstream continue to reduce inventory, and the port inventory remains flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (-6.38), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (-8.64), and the port inventory is 203.11 million tons (+0.02) [3] Strategy Suggestion - The end of the Iran - Israel conflict and the potential for a Sino - US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external risks. Coking coal has shown a relatively strong trend. The short - term suggestion is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position. In addition to the capital side, on the fundamental side, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is any active production reduction behavior at the mine end [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is also "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, geopolitical disturbances are released. Coking coal will return to its own logic. Although it followed the decline of crude oil, the bulls' resistance is strong. For coke, the fifth round of price cut has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts, with a price increase expected in July. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 784 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan), the basis is 104 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43.5 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [2] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal washery production is increasing. The operating rate of 523 mines is 84.49% (up 0.78%), and that of 110 coal washeries is 61.34% (up 3.2%). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is increasing, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 499.15 million tons (up 13.11 million tons), that of coal washeries is 237.39 million tons (down 14.08 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (up 0.68 million tons), that of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (down 3.88 million tons), and port inventory is 303.31 million tons (down 8.71 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - The fourth round of spot price cut has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), the active contract is 1351.5 yuan/ton (down 33.5 yuan), the basis is - 40 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 48 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply is decreasing, and demand is slightly increasing. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.79% (up 0.21%), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4218 million tons (up 0.57 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Both upstream and downstream inventories are decreasing, and port inventory is flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (down 6.38 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (down 8.64 million tons), and port inventory is 203.11 million tons (up 0.02 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel led to a sharp decline in crude oil. Domestically, the social financing performance in May was weak, and the real - estate policy has been relaxed, but investors' pessimistic attitude towards real estate is hard to reverse in the short term. The coking coal supply is increasing, and the inventory inflection point may take time. For coke, the cost and demand are decisive factors. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is also "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the end of the Iran - Israel conflict, the disturbance of crude oil on coking coal will end. Short - term decline in crude oil may drag down coking coal. Domestically, the social financing performance in May was weak, and the real - estate market policies have not effectively reversed investors' pessimistic attitude. The implementation of crude steel production restrictions is under discussion, but steel mills have low willingness to cut production [4]. - For coking coal, the resumption of production at mines and coal preparation plants is verified as passive production cuts. Inventory at mines is rising, while that at coal preparation plants is decreasing. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost of coke has limited downward space and will provide support. The supply - demand of coke has shown marginal improvement [5]. - After the short - term release of crude oil disturbance, coking coal will return to its own logic. Pay attention to coking coal's reaction to crude oil disturbance. Short - term recommendation is to hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upwards. Mongolian No. 5 primary coking coal is reported at 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 807 yuan/ton (+12). The basis is 81 yuan/ton (-12), and the September - January spread is -36 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. Supply - Mines and coal preparation plants have resumed production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 84.49% (+0.78), and that of 110 coal preparation plants is 61.34% (+3.2). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (-0.54) [2]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 499.15 million tons (+13.11), that of coal preparation plants is 237.39 million tons (-14.08), that of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (+0.68), that of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (-3.88), and port inventory is 303.31 million tons (-8.71) [2]. Coke Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upwards. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The active contract is at 1385 yuan/ton (+0.5). The basis is -18.5 yuan/ton (-0.5), and the September - January spread is -39 yuan/ton (-12) [3]. Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand has slightly increased. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (-0.54). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.79% (+0.21), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4218 million tons (+0.57) [3]. Inventory - Upstream and downstream inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory remains flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (-6.38), that of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (-8.64), and port inventory is 203.11 million tons (+0.02) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom. Pay attention to coking coal's reaction to crude oil disturbance. If coking coal is relatively resistant to decline when crude oil weakens, it may rise again after crude oil volatility decreases. If coking coal is sold off with large - scale position - increasing, it may return to a weak trend. Active production cuts at mines or administrative production cuts can trigger a continuous rebound [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the current data is at a bottoming phase and that further policy measures may be necessary to stabilize the market [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector experienced a decline of 1.7% this week, ranking 14th among various sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector fell by 1.6%, ranking 6th [3][18]. - New housing transaction volume increased by 9.3% week-on-week, marking two consecutive weeks of growth, although it remains down 7.3% year-on-year [4][34]. - The land market shows a slight recovery in premium rates, with an average premium rate of 8% for land transactions in 300 cities [3][27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights a decline in both A-share and Hong Kong real estate sectors, with specific weekly performance metrics indicating a negative trend [3][18]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong also saw a decrease of 1.9% [26]. Land Market - The land market is characterized by a mix of high premium and base price transactions, with significant competition for core urban land [5][14]. - In the latest land auction in Shanghai, five plots generated a total revenue of 191.56 billion yuan, with varying premium rates [5][14]. Real Estate Transactions - New home sales in 47 cities totaled 370 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 9% [4][34]. - Second-hand home transactions also saw a slight increase of 2.1% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in the market [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with strong positions in first-tier and core second-tier cities, such as Greentown China and Binjiang Group, which are expected to benefit from potential policy support [7]. - It also highlights the importance of property management companies that are well-positioned for growth and dividends, recommending companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle [7]. Data Tracking - The report provides detailed statistics on real estate development investments, new construction areas, and sales figures, indicating a continued decline in overall market performance [6][16][19]. - The cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities reached 16,293 million square meters, down 3.6% year-on-year [27][32].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate market in China is undergoing adjustments, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing the supply-demand imbalance in commercial and office spaces [2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Multiple departments have introduced a series of policies to stabilize the real estate market, leading to an overall steady state in the sector [2]. - The 2023 Government Work Report emphasizes revitalizing existing land and commercial properties, highlighting the severe supply-demand imbalance in the commercial real estate market [2]. - The macroeconomic stability projected at around 5% for 2025, along with potential interest rate cuts and a moderately loose monetary policy, is expected to support the recovery of the commercial real estate market [2]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Trends - The commercial real estate market is facing challenges, including a decline in investment and new construction in commercial land, as well as weakened demand for leasing office spaces [3]. - The current market is characterized by low rental prices and a trend of exchanging price for volume, indicating ongoing adjustments in the commercial real estate sector [3]. - The Government Work Report's focus on revitalizing commercial properties marks a transition towards optimizing existing stock rather than expanding new developments [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Opportunities - Five key trends are identified for the commercial real estate sector: 1. Large transactions are seen as leading indicators for market recovery, with signs of increased activity [3]. 2. Urban renewal is emerging as a new focus, indicating a shift to a stock-based era in commercial real estate [3]. 3. Flexible office spaces are expected to transition from niche demand to mainstream market phenomena [3]. 4. Sub-sectors like agency and commercial services are becoming new growth areas as some real estate companies pivot to become operators and service providers [3]. 5. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are becoming essential, with green buildings becoming a requirement for real estate companies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the escalation of the Middle - East situation on the medium - and long - term coking coal price is unclear. Domestically, the May social financing performance was weaker than expected, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the social retail growth rate increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting prices. The government is promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and the steel industry's production reduction plan is to be implemented but the timing is uncertain [4] - In the coking coal market, under safety and environmental disturbances, production at mines and coal washeries has decreased significantly, but inventories are still rising. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved [5] - The market reacted positively to the weak May economic data, indicating that as valuations are extremely low, reverse trading is increasing and a bottom is gradually forming [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 789.5 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan). The basis is 90.5 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan) [1] 3.1.2 Supply - Mines and coal washeries have reduced production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.7% (down 0.94), and the operating rate of 110 coal washeries is 57.36% (down 3.23) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories are increasing, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 486.04 million tons (up 5.31 million tons), and that of coal washeries is 251.47 million tons (up 6.41 million tons). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 773.98 million tons (up 3.07 million tons), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 669.53 million tons (down 21 million tons). Port inventories are 312.02 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 1365.5 yuan/ton (down 5.5 yuan). The basis is - 0 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (down 4.5 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, and demand has remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.96% (down 0.94), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.58% (down 0.07), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.61 million tons (down 0.19 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have shifted from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventories have continued to decline. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 87.31 million tons (down 1.1 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 642.84 million tons (down 2.96 million tons), and port inventories are 203.09 million tons (down 11.06 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add to the position after confirming the bottom [6]

Economic Performance - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[2] - The growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation and April's figure of 4.0%[3] - Industrial production growth declined to 5.8% in May from 6.1% in April, also below the expected 6.0%[7] Consumer Trends - The sales growth of communication equipment surged to 33.0% in May, up from 19.9% in April, while home appliance sales jumped to 53.0% from 38.8%[2] - Restaurant consumption growth rose to 5.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from April[2] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained negative at -0.1% for the fourth consecutive month, indicating low inflation[8] Investment and Housing Market - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year in May, worsening from the previous month's decline of 10.3%[3] - The average price of new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.22% month-on-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.12% in April[6] - The sales area of commercial housing in early June dropped by 9.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market[8] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to introduce fiscal support of 0.5-1.0 trillion yuan (approximately 0.35%-0.7% of GDP) by September, given the current economic conditions[1] - A potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points are anticipated in the second half of the year[1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing a mixed performance, with new home sales showing a slight decline in transaction volume but an increase in average prices, while the secondary housing market is seeing significant growth in transaction volume [2][4][6]. New Housing Market - In May 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 30 core cities was 11.48 million square meters, down 8.5% year-on-year, but up 5.7% month-on-month [2]. - From January to May 2025, the total transaction area for new residential properties in these cities was 55.21 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of new residential properties in May 2025 was 25,885 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year [2]. - The average price for new homes in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen varied significantly, with Beijing at 59,645 yuan per square meter, up 17.8% year-on-year, while Guangzhou saw a decline of 9.1% [3]. Secondary Housing Market - In May 2025, the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in 15 core cities was 13.57 million square meters, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year [4]. - From January to May 2025, the total transaction area for second-hand residential properties was 66.70 million square meters, up 17.3% year-on-year [5]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 10 core cities was 24,426 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [5]. - Key cities showed varied average prices for second-hand homes, with Beijing at 28,896 yuan per square meter, up 5.6% year-on-year, while Guangzhou experienced a decline of 7.5% [6]. Investment Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025 due to the implementation of previous real estate policies and increased local government autonomy in market regulation, leading to further regional and city-level differentiation [6].

S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 资料来源：Wind，东莞证券研究所 房地产行业 房地产（标配，维持） 销售止跌，房价筑底，供需及竞争格局将持续优化 投 资 策 略 房地产行业 2025 年中期投资策略 2025 年 6 月 13 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 推荐 分析师：何敏仪 SAC 执业证书编号： 房地产政策进一步精准发力。2025年房地产政策在延续去年宽松基 调同时，更多以"巩固稳定态势，细化落实"为主导。未来房地产 政策将继续是短期稳市场、提信心、防风险；中期调整供给、提振 需求，优化供需格局；长期构建新模式、促进高质量及可持续发展。 销售止跌回稳，房价仍处于筑底阶段。当前核心重点城市楼市成交 相对更活跃，其中改善性需求楼盘是支撑楼市回暖的一个重要因素。 高能级城市土地市场表现出首先回暖的迹象，房企也进一步聚焦于 核心城市拿地，带来在整体出让建面同比下降的同时，出让金额同 比明显回升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is "oscillation with a weakening bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottoming. The rumored crude steel production limit is set at around 30 million tons, which will change the long - short balance in the black sector [4] - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory overstock and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key is to monitor the signals of mine - end active production cuts or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost side is expected to support rather than drag down the price, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits will drive the price up [5] - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of a short - seller counter - attack. Once the price drops again, it may lead to a double - kill situation for both long and short positions [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (- 15), and the active contract is reported at 766.5 yuan/ton (- 17). The basis is 131.5 yuan/ton (+ 17), and the September - January spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 have declined slightly. The开工率 of 523 mines is reported at 86.3% (- 2.96), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is reported at 60.59% (- 0.96) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.4753 million tons (+ 370,800), and that of coal - washing plants is 2.1474 million tons (+ 114,800). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9875 million tons (+ 75,400), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 7.3796 million tons (- 146,000). The port inventory is 3.0156 million tons (- 45,300) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (- 0), and the active contract is reported at 1,328.5 yuan/ton (- 27.5). The basis is 37 yuan/ton (+ 27.5), and the September - January spread is - 19.5 yuan/ton (- 2) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 74.93% (- 0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.436 million tons (- 11,700) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 88,410 tons (+ 10,080), that of 247 steel mills is 645,800 tons (- 9,130), and the port inventory is 214,150 tons (- 3,030) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long order for the J09 contract and wait to increase the position after confirming the market bottom [6]