Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has fallen below the 0.6500 mark against the US dollar, currently at 0.6489, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, igniting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] - Employment data showed an increase of 14,900 jobs in September, which was below the market expectation of 20,000, while the previous month's job loss was revised to a decrease of 11,800 from 54,000 [1] Group 2 - RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter's cautious remarks provided some support for the AUD, noting that recent data was slightly better than expected and that third-quarter inflation might exceed forecasts [1] - The RBA's September monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that board members believe the current policy is still somewhat restrictive, but the extent is difficult to determine [1] - Economic risks remain, with weak employment and wage growth contributing to subdued consumer spending [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD remains in a downward channel, with bearish sentiment persisting [2] - The potential downside target for the AUD/USD is around 0.6440, and a break below this support could lead to testing the four-month low of 0.6414 and the five-month low of 0.6372 [2] - On the upside, initial resistance is at the 9-day exponential moving average of 0.6527, followed by the 50-day moving average at 0.6551, with a breakthrough potentially improving short- and medium-term price momentum [2]

郑氏点银：黄金冲高回落，日线走循环，又要试探短期5日再企稳 以上是笔者技术剖析的几个观点，作为参考，也是十二年以来，每日12小时以上盯盘、复盘所积累的技术经验总结，每天都会公开技术点，配合文字和视频 解读，想学习的朋友，结合实际走势可以去对比参考；认可思路的可以参考操作，带好防守，风控第一；不认可的就当飘过就行；感谢大家的支持和关注； 第二，白银方面：早间先依托小时线中轨50支撑看涨，价格略差0.1，一波拉高至51.7，欧盘回踩50.5继续看涨，价格刚好到位，美盘又是一波续涨，最高冲 击52.4一线，也是非常强势； 今日行情分析解读： 第二，黄金小时线级别：午后压制4179一线跳水一波至4090，也是昨夜凌晨低点，双底企稳后，欧盘反弹一波至4145，测试了跌幅618分割阻力，也是图中 红色通道反压点；而原本欧盘认为，反弹又重新站上了中轨，且整个欧盘处于反弹，并未延续午后走弱，那么整体还是有些偏强，存在突破4045阻力的概 率，然后压制日内高点下再冲高回落，类似10月9日走法；结果实际走势并未如此，而是选择再次打压，失守中轨，跌至4100；那么当前布林带走的就是缩 口整理了，下方支撑4090一线比较关键，上方中 ...

- The report introduces the **RPV factor (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume)**, which is constructed by combining intraday and overnight price-volume correlation information. The factor leverages the reversal effect of closing price sequences and the momentum effect of overnight returns, enhanced by turnover rate sequences. The construction process involves identifying the best representatives for intraday and overnight price-volume correlations (CCOIV and COV), and integrating their information into a unified factor. This factor is designed to capture both reversal and momentum effects effectively[6][7][10] - The report also introduces the **SRV factor (Smart Correlation of Price and Volume)**, which is a refined version of the RPV factor. The SRV factor splits intraday price movements into morning and afternoon sessions, calculates a "smart" indicator for the afternoon session, and identifies the 20% of time intervals with the highest informed trading activity. It then uses the turnover rate during these intervals to calculate the correlation with afternoon price movements. For overnight price-volume correlation, the turnover rate is replaced with the turnover rate of the last half-hour of the previous trading day, which is considered to have a higher proportion of informed trading. The SRV factor combines the improved intraday and overnight price-volume correlation factors into a single composite factor[6][10][11] - The **RPV factor** is evaluated as a novel and effective factor that incorporates both reversal and momentum effects, making it a robust tool for stock selection[6][7] - The **SRV factor** is evaluated as an improvement over the RPV factor, with better performance metrics, including higher annualized returns, information ratio, and lower maximum drawdown. It is considered a more effective factor for stock selection[6][10] - The **RPV factor** achieved an annualized return of 14.26%, annualized volatility of 7.70%, IR of 1.85, monthly win rate of 72.14%, and maximum drawdown of 10.63% during the backtesting period from January 2014 to September 2025[7][10] - The **SRV factor** achieved an annualized return of 17.07%, annualized volatility of 6.51%, IR of 2.62, monthly win rate of 74.29%, and maximum drawdown of 3.93% during the same backtesting period[7][10] - In September 2025, the **RPV factor** achieved a 10-group long portfolio return of 1.24%, short portfolio return of -0.89%, and long-short portfolio return of 2.12%[10] - In September 2025, the **SRV factor** achieved a 10-group long portfolio return of 1.70%, short portfolio return of -1.51%, and long-short portfolio return of 3.21%[10]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,752 points, near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 26,500 points, indicating a "sell" signal with a short-term bearish bias [1] - Current resistance levels are at 27,284 points and 27,600 points, while support levels are at 26,200 points and 25,700 points [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) - The stock has reached a yearly high, with investors deploying call options at an exercise price of 530.5 HKD, and the stock peaked at 460 HKD during the day [6] - The technical trading signal is a "buy," with the first resistance level identified at 471 HKD, and a potential upward movement to 477 HKD if the upper Bollinger Band is successfully breached [6] Group 3: Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) - The stock price closed at 53.35 HKD, with a neutral trading signal, and investors are speculating a drop to 48 HKD [10] - Support levels are identified at 52 HKD and 49.2 HKD [10] Group 4: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - Investors are hopeful for the stock to reach 40 HKD by the end of the month, holding call options with an exercise price of 38.99 HKD [15] - The stock reached a high of 39.62 HKD during the day, with a "sell" signal and resistance levels at 38.8 HKD and 42 HKD [16] Group 5: BYD Company (01211.HK) - The stock closed at 110.2 HKD, with a "buy" signal, and investors are looking for entry points around 120 HKD [22] - The first support level is at 106 HKD, followed by a second support level at 102 HKD [22] Group 6: HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) - The stock experienced significant volatility, reaching a low of 102.5 HKD, with a potential entry point at 103 HKD [27] - The average volatility over recent days is noted at 9%, with a "buy" signal and support levels at 99.9 HKD and 95.7 HKD [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that technical analysis is not inherently useless; rather, it is often misapplied or misunderstood. The current market signals indicate increasing risks, necessitating a reduction in stock holdings and positions [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent market movements show a divergence between the strong performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the underlying technical indicators, suggesting a potential top divergence [1]. - The market's support relies heavily on specific sectors such as computing power, energy storage, and metals. A decline in these sectors could lead to significant market downturns [1]. - The brokerage sector is described as dependent on retail investor sentiment, with overall trading volume indicating a lack of substantial growth potential [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The article notes that despite a recent volume breakout in the Shanghai Composite Index, there are concerns about the sustainability of this upward movement due to underlying divergence signals [1]. - The average stock price index shows a divergence in volume and price, indicating a potential peak in the near term [1]. - Market sentiment remains low, with most stocks experiencing downward pressure, while only a few sectors and stocks continue to show strength [1]. Group 3: Psychological Factors - Many investors are trapped in a mindset of expecting new leading sectors to emerge quickly, but the reality is that new leaders often arise from periods of correction [2].

Core Insights - Jim Rogers, known as the "Commodity King," emphasizes the importance of buying value and selling during market hysteria [2][36] - He began trading in 1968 with a modest capital of $600 and co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973 [3][7] - Rogers advocates for patience and waiting for the right investment opportunities rather than acting out of boredom [9][37] Early Career and Investment Philosophy - Rogers initially worked on Wall Street and began trading while studying at Oxford [5] - He learned from early mistakes, emphasizing the need to understand investments thoroughly before acting [6] - His strategy involves waiting for favorable conditions, akin to "fishing in a barrel" [5][9] Collaboration with Soros - The Quantum Fund was innovative for its time, allowing for simultaneous trading across various markets [7] - Rogers and Soros had a complementary relationship, with Rogers focusing on analysis while Soros executed trades [7] Investment Strategies - Rogers stresses the importance of ensuring investments have high intrinsic value to minimize potential losses [9][36] - He believes in the necessity of a "catalyst" to trigger significant market movements [37] - The concept of market "hysteria" is crucial; he often looks for opportunities to act against prevailing market trends [10][12] Market Behavior and Cycles - Markets follow cyclical patterns, often driven by emotional responses rather than rational analysis [23][24] - Rogers notes that during market extremes, opportunities arise for those willing to act contrary to the crowd [12][13] Risk Management - He advises against buying options, citing a high failure rate for such investments [14][15] - Maintaining both long and short positions is a strategy to mitigate risk [17][19] Key Investment Principles - Rogers emphasizes the importance of common sense in investing, which is often overlooked by the majority [26][41] - Flexibility and readiness to act in any market condition are essential traits for successful investors [31][41] - Investors should be cautious of mainstream opinions and be prepared to think independently [42] Conclusion - The insights from Jim Rogers provide valuable lessons for investors, highlighting the significance of patience, value investing, and understanding market psychology [36][43]

Core Insights - Gold (XAUUSD) has surpassed the $4,000/oz mark for the first time, driven by investor anxiety over the U.S. government shutdown, economic uncertainty, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][8] - Spot gold prices have increased by 54% since the beginning of the year, currently trading around $4,035 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][8] Price Trends - Gold's price has shown a strong uptrend since breaking out of a narrow trading range in early September, with only minor retracements observed [4][8] - The relative strength index indicates overbought conditions, recently exceeding 85, suggesting potential for near-term profit-taking [4] Technical Analysis - The average directional index is above 50, indicating a strong uptrend in gold prices [5] - A bullish target of $4,160 has been projected using the measured move technique, suggesting a 3% upside from current levels [6][8] Support Levels - Initial pullbacks may test the $3,700 support level, which corresponds to a previous consolidation period [7][8] - If this level fails to hold, further declines could see gold prices drop to around $3,450, which may serve as a new support level [7][9] - A significant drop could lead to a revisit of the $3,250 support level, near the rising 200-day moving average [9]

Core Insights - Technical analysis is a crucial tool for investors in short-term stock market operations, allowing them to better grasp buying and selling opportunities through the analysis of price trends and trading volumes [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis Tools - The moving average system plays a key role in trend judgment, indicating an upward trend when stock prices are above short-term moving averages and in a bullish arrangement [3] - The MACD indicator is favored for its sensitivity to trend changes, with golden cross and death cross signals reflecting market momentum changes [3] - Volume analysis is irreplaceable in technical systems, as genuine trend breakthroughs are often accompanied by significant volume increases, enhancing reliability [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to establish a personal analysis system and master the usage of core indicators while maintaining risk awareness and effective capital management [4] - Practicing through simulated trading can help investors familiarize themselves with technical analysis methods before engaging in real trading [4] - A calm mindset is essential to avoid emotional trading decisions due to short-term market fluctuations [4] Group 3: Company Overview - Hunan Jinzheng is recognized as the first batch of institutions approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the first in Hunan to obtain a securities investment consulting business license, offering comprehensive financial investment services [4]

Core Insights - The investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a balanced portfolio of approximately 50% in each [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes buying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is utilized to assess the health of companies, including leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is employed to determine optimal entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Investment Strategy - The investor's timeframe for holding positions ranges from 3 to 24 months [1] - A professional background check is conducted on insiders who purchase shares after a sell-off, indicating a focus on insider activity as a signal for potential investment [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but may also invest in companies from less stable economies [1]

So joining me now with whether those runs can continue is Paul Siana, the head of technical research over at BFA Securities. So we brought in an expert to talk to us about the prices of Bitcoin and the prices of gold and whether or not those trends are things that can sustain over time or whether we're due for some kind of a reversal. So let's start first of all with the first chart that we're going to put up here and that's going to be a little bit about the gold rally.This is a weekly chart showing all of ...