Group 1 - The market experienced a low opening on Monday, followed by a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3384 points [1] - Cultural media, gaming, software development, and internet services sectors performed well, while precious metals, jewelry, aviation, and aerospace sectors showed weaker performance [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement its next interest rate cut as early as September, with further overseas liquidity easing still pending [1] Group 2 - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the market saw significant adjustments in the previous trading day, but fear sentiment has decreased after the weekend, leading to a rebound [2] - The trading volume has decreased significantly, indicating that market sentiment still needs improvement, and the A-share market is likely to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term [2] - The A-share market is currently in a consolidation phase since the "924" rally, with a wide fluctuation trend, and future policy announcements in late July and September are critical for breaking out of this range [2]

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall view is that the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Although the market sentiment has weakened due to the Middle - East geopolitical crisis and concerns about supply and global demand, the policy - side support is strong, and the market bottom - support power is sufficient. The upward momentum of the market is still restricted by the weak macro - demand expectation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Last Friday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical crisis, market sentiment weakened. However, the weakening of external demand under the tariff war is within market expectations, and the recovery of domestic demand is the key. The weakening of recent macro - economic indicators increases the expectation of policy support, and the market bottom - support power is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th. The market's upward momentum is restricted by the weak macro - demand expectation [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 12112 亿元，较上日放量 923 亿元。二 季度政策面托底经济需求，且稳定股市预期，尤其是强调了加强汇金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of policy support and uncertainty, leading to a rebalancing situation [1] - The AH premium index has dropped to a near four-year low, with southbound capital becoming cautious and even taking profits, indicating a potential market consolidation phase due to technical overbought pressure [1] - The internal fundamentals show a "weak recovery + differentiation" characteristic, with the manufacturing PMI returning to contraction, and both resident and corporate credit demand remaining sluggish [1] Group 2 - The external environment reflects a conflict between "tactical easing" and "strategic encirclement," with the US-China tariff pause boosting risk appetite, but ongoing technology wars and export restrictions creating pressure in critical sectors [1] - Policy measures such as interest rate cuts and consumption loans are aimed at driving domestic demand recovery, particularly in service consumption and commodities [2] - The strategy suggested is to maintain a "defensive counterattack" approach, focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and events like the e-commerce "618" promotion [2]

股指期货：节前观望增加，或延续整固 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场窄幅震荡，主因驱动不明显。四大期指亦涨跌互现。板块方面看，汽 车、美容护理、基础化工涨幅居前，食品饮料、房地产、煤炭跌幅居前，热点主线散乱。在美方释出大幅 下调对中国关税消息后，后续关税走向反而不甚明朗，重新向上或继续下调均有空间，交易反而存在高度 不确定性。此外，在关税压力弱化之际，政策面是否会降低托底力度存在疑问。周五，盘中政治局会议消 息公布后，市场房地产板块、黑色系期货走势出现回落，可见一斑。 后期来看，短期国内政策靴子落地，在外部压力释缓的情况下，政策以落实前期会议精神为主，力度 偏温和。预计近一阶段仍以结构性政策为主，总量宽松(譬如降准降息等)仍需等待。在政策温和的情况 下，二季度开始贸易摩擦对实体经济的压力将逐步增加。因此政策温和，实体下修，宏观预期回落对指数 运行存在压力。此外从交易方面因素看，本周仅节前三个交易日，假期间美国还将发布非农数据，鉴于今 年清明小长假后行情出现巨大波动以及美方在关税领域的不确定性，避险观望情绪增加也可能带来走势的 ...