Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of policy support and uncertainty, leading to a rebalancing situation [1] - The AH premium index has dropped to a near four-year low, with southbound capital becoming cautious and even taking profits, indicating a potential market consolidation phase due to technical overbought pressure [1] - The internal fundamentals show a "weak recovery + differentiation" characteristic, with the manufacturing PMI returning to contraction, and both resident and corporate credit demand remaining sluggish [1] Group 2 - The external environment reflects a conflict between "tactical easing" and "strategic encirclement," with the US-China tariff pause boosting risk appetite, but ongoing technology wars and export restrictions creating pressure in critical sectors [1] - Policy measures such as interest rate cuts and consumption loans are aimed at driving domestic demand recovery, particularly in service consumption and commodities [2] - The strategy suggested is to maintain a "defensive counterattack" approach, focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and events like the e-commerce "618" promotion [2]

股指期货：节前观望增加，或延续整固 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场窄幅震荡，主因驱动不明显。四大期指亦涨跌互现。板块方面看，汽 车、美容护理、基础化工涨幅居前，食品饮料、房地产、煤炭跌幅居前，热点主线散乱。在美方释出大幅 下调对中国关税消息后，后续关税走向反而不甚明朗，重新向上或继续下调均有空间，交易反而存在高度 不确定性。此外，在关税压力弱化之际，政策面是否会降低托底力度存在疑问。周五，盘中政治局会议消 息公布后，市场房地产板块、黑色系期货走势出现回落，可见一斑。 后期来看，短期国内政策靴子落地，在外部压力释缓的情况下，政策以落实前期会议精神为主，力度 偏温和。预计近一阶段仍以结构性政策为主，总量宽松(譬如降准降息等)仍需等待。在政策温和的情况 下，二季度开始贸易摩擦对实体经济的压力将逐步增加。因此政策温和，实体下修，宏观预期回落对指数 运行存在压力。此外从交易方面因素看，本周仅节前三个交易日，假期间美国还将发布非农数据，鉴于今 年清明小长假后行情出现巨大波动以及美方在关税领域的不确定性，避险观望情绪增加也可能带来走势的 ...