，继续牵制市场价格。菜油市场呈现短期供应宽松但长期不确定性较大。盘面来看，受棕榈油下跌拖累，菜油震荡收跌，总体仍维 持区间震荡，短线参与为主。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9405 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2562 | 10 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 200 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 226 | 7 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 333160 | -10213 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 608010 | -7430 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 44778 | -2759 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -34125 | -7516 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1036 | -67 仓单数量:菜粕(日, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,222 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's output decreased by 5.41% month-on-month to 610,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.55% month-on-month to 79.52%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products last week increased by 0.57% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.27% month-on-month to 527,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.15% month-on-month to 610,600 tons. In May, the PE industry had centralized maintenance. This week, the Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plants were shut down, while the Maoming Petrochemical and Yanchang Zhongmei plants restarted, with production and capacity utilization expected to decline slightly. The downstream shed film and mulch film were in the off - season; packaging film orders increased significantly due to tariff reduction; PE pipe demand was mainly for terminal rigid needs. In terms of cost, the stalemate in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations offset the negative impact of Moody's downgrading of the US sovereign credit rating, and international oil prices rose slightly. In the short term, L2509 is expected to oscillate, with support around 7,160 yuan/ton and resistance around 7,340 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,155 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,135 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The trading volume was 314,792 lots, down 6,743 lots; the open interest was 511,907 lots, down 2,179 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was 20 yuan, up 178 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 375,228 lots, down 5,551 lots; the short position was 417,811 lots, down 7,821 lots; the net long position was - 42,583 lots, up 2,270 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,413.91 yuan/ton, down 20.87 yuan; in East China, it was 7,553.41 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis was 191.91 yuan, down 4.87 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.55 US dollars/barrel, down 0.02 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.38 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 79.52%, down 4.55 percentage points [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.7%, up 1.11 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 16.68%, down 2.76 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.81%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.57%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.04%, down 0.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.05%, down 0.34 percentage points [2] Industry News - From May 9th to 15th, China's polyethylene production was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.41%; the capacity utilization rate was 79.52%, a decrease of 4.55 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products from May 9th to 15th increased by 0.57% compared with the previous period. As of May 16th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 610,600 tons, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous period; as of May 14th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise samples was 527,800 tons, a decrease of 8.27% from the previous period [2]

【股指期货周一表现各异，后市操作思路需转变】周一沪指低开回升，震荡收平，量能环比持平。轮动 较快，热点持续性有限，并购重组概念活跃，ST 股等有重组预期集体涨停，带动微盘股指数新高，近 百股涨停，全市场无跌停板。上周领涨的大金融回调，银行板块领跌，保险非银熄火。后市缺少主线， 结合期权市场指标，整体思路应从持仓待涨转向逢高止盈，操作上考虑安全垫策略，暂且半仓持有 IM，考虑吃贴水收敛。【股指期权昨日市场稳定，策略以备兑防御为主】昨日权益市场震荡，沪指上 周三突破 3400 点后走势缓慢回落。期权市场成交额 40.35 亿元较上周五窄幅提升，各品种持仓量 PCR 涨跌互现，整体流动性和 PCR 波动幅度有限，交易情绪稳定。期权隐含波动率方面，各品种平值隐波 均下行，策略建议备兑防御为主。【国债期货昨日全线上涨，后续走势或受多因素影响】昨日国债期货 收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.37%，10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%。央行公开市场操作净投放 920 亿元，资金利率多数下行，资金面边际转松。4 月 多项数据发布，固定资产投资和社零同比增速 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28%, with 3,839 stocks in the market increasing in value [1] - The ChiNext Index showed the strongest performance, increasing by 1.65% [2] - The CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.76%, with significant trading activity in its options [1][2] Trading Volume and Options Activity - A-shares had a total trading volume of 1.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 190 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The trading volume for the CSI 300 Index options was 89,600 contracts, with an open interest of 183,400 contracts, indicating a high level of activity [2] - The ChiNext ETF options had a trading volume of 1,196,500 contracts and an open interest of 1,317,200 contracts, reflecting increased investor interest [2] Options Market Insights - The PCR (Put-Call Ratio) for the CSI 300 Index options was 68.67% for trading volume and 70.26% for open interest, indicating a growing trend of selling put options [2] - The current valuation of IO options is relatively low, suggesting potential opportunities for investors [2] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile range, with strong support and resistance levels identified for the ChiNext Index [2]

，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9335 | 119 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2565 | 17 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 139 302424 | -10 菜粕月间价差(9-1) ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2239 | 20 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -67 | 2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 725631 | 32553 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -91038 | -4449 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7754 | -80 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2410 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2115 | -15 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 295 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 171 | -30 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 268 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 340 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 250 | -6 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -72 | NAN | | 上游情况 | NYM ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the options market is on economic data releases rather than the tariff announcement scheduled for April 2, with significant implied volatility spikes noted on March 31 and April 4 [1][3] - March 31 corresponds to the first trading day after the release of the February core PCE price index, while April 4 aligns with the release of the March non-farm payroll report, indicating investor concerns about inflation and employment [3][4] - Despite a 10% decline in the S&P 500 index, volatility indicators remain calm, suggesting that some investors have reduced their positions and shifted focus to other regions, decreasing the need for hedging against further declines [4][5] Group 2 - The lack of volatility peaks indicates that the real risk may lie in economic fundamentals rather than policy announcements, as traders await certainty from upcoming economic data [4][5] - Many investors prioritize economic impacts over uncertainty, reflecting a significant focus on the implications of economic data releases [5] - The negative economic impact of tariff uncertainty may be more profound than previously anticipated, with potential increases in consumer prices and reduced real wages highlighted by Fitch's chief economist [5]