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宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月20日):一、动力煤-20251020
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 01:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of different commodities in multiple sectors such as power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide reference for investors in futures trading. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from October 13 to October 17, 2025, shows that the basis was - 87.4, - 81.4, - 70.4, - 60.4, and - 53.4 yuan/ton respectively, with a continuous increase trend. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and other indicators from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 7.78, 6.92, 8.63, 15.20, and 82.20 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 690, - 595, - 645, - 600, and - 445 yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 17 was 2187 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 57.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 17 was 3.95 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper on October 17 was 350 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin) on October 17, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (16.83) [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 17 was - 48 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for various agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 17 was 2.88 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 17 was 29.03 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.5 [50].
期货研究,商品期货周报-20251015
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 13:59
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is in a state of multi - air stalemate with a high probability of oscillation. Some arbitrage strategies need to be adjusted according to the market situation, such as exiting some positions and holding or rolling others [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market shows a weakening trend with oscillations. Spiral steel and wire are rising. There are various changes in the ratios and spreads of different commodity futures contracts [4]. Specific Arbitrage Strategies - **Corn and Strong Wheat Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of strong wheat 909 to corn 909 has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying corn 909 and selling strong wheat 909 should be put on hold [4][19]. - **Soybean and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of soybean 1001 to bean meal 1001 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][7]. - **Soybean Oil and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of soybean oil 1001 to bean meal 1001 slightly declines. The arbitrage of buying soybean oil 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][10]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The spread between rapeseed oil 909 and soybean oil 909 continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying rapeseed oil 909 and selling soybean oil 909 should be continued to hold, with a target spread of 450 [4][12]. - **Soybean, Bean Meal, and Soybean Oil Pressing Arbitrage**: The 1 - month pressing profit has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling soybean oil and bean meal should be exited and put on hold [4][14]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil Arbitrage**: The ratio of 9 - month soybean oil to palm oil continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying 9 - month soybean oil and selling 9 - month palm oil can consider taking profits and waiting for new opportunities [4][18]. - **Soybean Oil Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between soybean oil 1001 and 909 oscillates and slightly expands. Wait for the spread to reach around 100 to build a position for the arbitrage of buying 1001 and selling 909 [4][22]. - **Sugar Arbitrage**: The arbitrage spread of buying sugar 1001 and selling 909 oscillates between 305 - 335. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically with a reduced profit target of 280 [4][25]. - **Soybean Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between soybean 1001 and 909 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can take profits and exit [4][28]. - **Bean Meal Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between bean meal 1001 and 909 may continue to expand. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically within the range of 200 - 280 [4][30]. Arbitrage Basics - Arbitrage trading involves buying one futures contract and selling another related futures contract simultaneously, including inter - period, cross - variety, and cross - market arbitrage. It aims to profit from the spread or ratio changes between two contracts, with advantages such as lower risk and more predictable spreads [31]. Arbitrage Operation Examples - **Spread Arbitrage**: When the price difference between two contracts is small, operate with the same contract value. For example, in the case of rapeseed oil 905 and soybean oil 905 in 2008 - 2009, a profit was made by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one [32]. - **Ratio Arbitrage**: When the price difference between two contracts is large, use the ratio to observe the strength. For example, in the case of strong wheat 905 and corn 905 in 2008, a profit was achieved by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one based on the ratio analysis [34]. Operation Modes - **Rolling Operation**: When reaching the target value, partially close the position (can retain part of the position) without reverse operation. Resume the original - direction operation when the target value is reached again [35]. - **Range Operation**: Conduct reverse operations within a predetermined range [36].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月14日)-20251014
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 01:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on commodity arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on October 14, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of various commodities in different sectors [1][5][18][25][38][49] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 13 being - 87.4 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 13 is 4.17 yuan/ton [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are given. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 13 is - 690 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber being - 15 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 13 is 2285 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on October 13 is 127.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, like the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar being 54.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 13 is 3.86 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 13 is - 280 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is 226.78 [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.2 on October 13 is 265.84 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are presented, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 being 35 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are shown. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 13 is 2.82 [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 13 is 31.38 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) are presented. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [50]
工业硅、多晶硅周度报告:工业硅供需矛盾不激烈,多晶硅消息频发-20251012
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-12 12:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1][5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory of over 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and it is advisable to go long at low prices with caution [2][4][12] - The progress of platform companies in the polysilicon sector has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline in the market. However, it may be premature to declare their failure. The judgment that spot prices will not fall in October is maintained. The PS2511 contract is significantly at a discount, and the PS2512 contract is basically at par. It is advisable to consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][14][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 45 yuan/ton to 8,685 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 2,395 yuan/ton to 48,965 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - Compared to the end of September, Xinjiang added 3 furnaces, and Yunnan reduced 1 furnace. Northern large - scale factories are increasing production, while some southern silicon factories are starting to reduce production slightly and may significantly cut production at the end of October. It is expected that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to more than 20, and in Sichuan to around 35. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.54 million tons. Downstream demand is for essential purchases. If the eastern base of Xinjiang large - scale factories opens 50 furnaces, the industrial silicon may accumulate about 40,000 tons of inventory from September to October and deplete about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If 60 furnaces are opened, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a small amount in December [2][12] 3.3 Organic Silicon Market Conditions - The price of organic silicon remained flat this week. Some production facilities are under maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate is 71.95%, the weekly output is 47,600 tons (a decrease of 1.04% month - on - month), and the inventory is 42,900 tons (a decrease of 1.61% month - on - month). The operating rate has declined, supply has shrunk, and with the support of previous order fulfillment, monomer factories' inventory has been digested to some extent. Enterprises are more willing to hold prices, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [12][13] 3.4 Polysilicon Market Conditions - The spot price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. In September, the average transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and a small number of orders reached 53 yuan/kg before the National Day. The large - scale transactions in October have not started yet. The production schedule for October has been further increased to 138,000 tons. There are rumors that the south - western base of leading enterprises will gradually reduce production during the dry season at the end of October. As of October 9, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 240,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' supply. Although production restrictions have not been implemented, sales restrictions are still in place, making the monthly supply - demand situation tighter than shown in the balance sheet. Considering the inventory distribution and production pressure in downstream sectors, the spot price of polysilicon may remain flat [3][14] 3.5 Silicon Wafer Market Conditions - The price of silicon wafers remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.35/1.40/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule for October was 55.68GW (a decrease of 3.4GW month - on - month). As of October 9, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.78GW (an increase of 0.55GW month - on - month). The inventory is within a reasonable range, and future prices are expected to remain stable [15] 3.6 Battery Cell Market Conditions - The price of battery cells remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells remained at 0.32/0.29/0.31 yuan/watt. Benefiting from domestic centralized demand, some battery manufacturers raised the price of G12 battery cells to 0.32 yuan/W. As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.97GW (an increase of 2.93GW month - on - month). Due to the National Day holiday, the inventory has accumulated but is still under control. The domestic centralized orders are acceptable. India announced the final anti - dumping "suggested" tax rate on imported batteries and components from China on September 29, with a planned three - year levy period starting in 1 - 3 months. To avoid taxes, the Indian market may continue to stockpile batteries, and short - term battery exports are expected to increase again and remain high until the end of the year [16] 3.7 Component Market Conditions - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly fulfilled previous orders, with the mainstream delivery price ranging from 0.63 to 0.69 yuan/watt. The delivery price for large - scale customers of distributed projects was between 0.66 and 0.69 yuan/watt, and a small number of transactions were above 0.7 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (a decrease of 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule for October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The rush to install to meet the 14th Five - Year Plan target supports demand in October, but considering the poor tendering situation this year, the component demand from November to December may be pessimistic. Components are under pressure from rising raw material costs and price increases of auxiliary materials such as glass and adhesive films. With policy support, component prices will eventually rise, but terminal demand may decline. It is expected that component prices will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [17] 3.8 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: It is advisable to go long at low prices with higher probability of success but be cautious when chasing long positions [4][18][19] - Polysilicon: Consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][19] 3.9 Hot News - GCL Technology completed the first batch of subscriptions. The second batch will be completed on November 7th and 19th. After two rounds, it will receive approximately 5.446 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 5 billion yuan). The funds will be used for polysilicon capacity adjustment, R & D and production of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, and general working capital [20] - The 15,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project in Angola has been fully put into operation. The second - phase project plans to invest 100 million US dollars to produce 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials, and the construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [21] - The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on industrial silicon imports from Angola starting from October 1st, and also impose high tariffs on imports from other countries [21]
集运日报:SCFIS持续回落,或将全面停火,远月大幅回落,符合日报预期,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20251010
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 07:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, a 6.6% decline from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, a 4.8% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, an 8.47% decline; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, an 8.83% decline; for the US - West route, it was 868.22 points, an 8.11% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, a decline of 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, a 7.70% decline; the SCFI US - West route was 1460 USD/FEU, a 10.76% decline [3]. - On September 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decline; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, a 4.7% decline; for the US - West route, it was 824.92 points, a 2.4% increase [3]. b. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI flash was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The services PMI flash rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI flash was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (August final value: 53); the services PMI flash was 53.9 (August final value: 54.5); the composite PMI flash was 53.6 (August final value: 54.6) [4]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, a 1.81% decline, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the Israel - Palestine situation showed signs of easing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market and wide - range fluctuations [5]. - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: All contracts are advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes the agreement can pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the same day, the Israeli Defense Forces said they had evaluated the situation overnight, and the IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and would continue to act to achieve the military operation goals in the Gaza Strip [7].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月10日)-20251010
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on October 10, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, shows that the basis on October 9 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, the same as September 30 and 29, while on September 26 it was - 100.4 yuan/ton, and on September 25 it was - 95.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 [2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 9 was 13.42 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 9 was - 765 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 35 yuan/ton [11] - Inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, LLDPE - PVC was 2318 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, on October 9, rebar/iron ore was 3.92 [20] - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the basis of rebar on October 9 was 154.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market are provided. For example, the basis of copper on October 9 was - 750 yuan/ton [30] - **London Market**: On October 9, 2025, LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (24.90) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 9 was - 15 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 29 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.85 [41] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 9 was 20.28 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 8.8 [52]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月9日):一、动力煤-20251009
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 02:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products of Baocheng Futures on October 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025. The basis on September 30 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, and all inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - It provides the basis, price ratios, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities from September 24 to September 30, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 30 was 13.33 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on September 30 was - 730 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 30 was 2298 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar was 54.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 30 was 3.95 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 30 was 138.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on September 30 was 80 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (42.98) [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 30 was 33 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are provided, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 30 was 1.83 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 30 was 22.69 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.8 [50]
有色套利早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead as of September 30, 2025, which can help investors analyze potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 30, 2025, the domestic spot price was 82220, the LME price was 10235, and the ratio was 8.06; the three - month domestic price was 82360, the LME price was 10264, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.10, with a loss of 898.28, and the profit for spot export was 299.94 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21620, the LME price was 2953, and the ratio was 7.32; the three - month domestic price was 21830, the LME price was 2909, and the ratio was 5.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.54, with a loss of 3590.26 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20690, the LME price was 2660, and the ratio was 7.77; the three - month domestic price was 20725, the LME price was 2666, and the ratio was 7.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.39, with a loss of 1632.20 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119800, the LME price was 15057, and the ratio was 7.96. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18, with a loss of 1708.54 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16750, the LME price was 1948, and the ratio was 8.62; the three - month domestic price was 16885, the LME price was 1993, and the ratio was 10.89. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a loss of 400.78 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 30, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 100, - 110, - 150, and - 130 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 514, 927, 1348, and 1769 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 150, - 120, - 75, and - 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 450, and 569 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 25, - 30, - 20, and - 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 446, and 562 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 215, - 185, - 165, and - 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 0, 170, 340, and 620 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 1010, and the theoretical spread was 5645 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 295 and 195 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 346 and 787 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 330 and 180 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 159 and 285 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 320 and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 179 and 291 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 30, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.77, 3.97, 4.88, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; in the London (three - continuous) market, they were 3.54, 3.89, 5.22, 0.91, 1.34, and 0.68 respectively [5]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年9月29日):一、动力煤-20250929
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily arbitrage data for various futures commodities on September 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these commodities. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis for power coal on September 26, 2025, was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 25, 24, and 23, and - 96.4 yuan/ton on September 22. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented, along with the price ratios. For example, on September 26, the basis of INE crude oil was 13.13 yuan/ton, and the price ratio was 0.1417 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. For instance, on September 26, the basis of rubber was - 770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2261 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of rebar was 126.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented. On September 26, the basis of copper was 40 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - For LME non - ferrous metals on September 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (38.91), and the import profit and loss was (452.74) [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 125 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 33 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the basis of CSI 300 was 25.05 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next - month vs current - month, next - quarter vs current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.0 [50].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年9月26日):一、动力煤-20250926
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:35
Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for September 26, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the base price of thermal coal remained at -95.4 yuan/ton (except -96.4 yuan/ton on September 22 and -97.4 yuan/ton on September 19), and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with specific values varying each day [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with values changing daily [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Price**: Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [28] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 25, 2025 are provided [32] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter spreads, are presented [47]