Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber price has been continuously falling recently and is likely to show a weak and volatile pattern in the future. The futures market is weak, and the spot market generally follows the decline. The downstream market has weak buying, and transactions are mainly for immediate needs. In the short term, with the liquidation of arbitrage positions, the market supply increases, but the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the fundamentals lack effective support, so the rubber price may show a correction trend [2]. - The overall trend of stock index futures today was to open higher, rush up and then fall back, and the market bottomed out and rebounded at the end of the session. Technically, it is generally in a range - bound oscillation, and there may be another pulse in the intraday trading tomorrow. It is still recommended to operate according to the oscillation idea [7][8]. - After the gold price oscillated and adjusted, it reached a new high again, with an increase in volatility and signs of acceleration. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy [12]. - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply of iron ore is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, although there was a small rebound today, the downward trend remains unchanged, and a bearish and oscillating view is maintained [15][16]. - The daily melting volume of glass has been continuously decreasing slightly, and the inventory has also been reduced. The main driving factors are the stimulus policies on the policy side and the anti - involution policy for the supply - side clearance. Technically, although there was a small rebound, the downward trend remains unchanged, and a bearish and oscillating view is maintained [19][20]. - There are two reasons to be bearish on rubber: the macro - environment shows signs of correction, and the rubber futures need to correct and repair as the capital sentiment cools down; the pressure of domestic spot inventory is gradually prominent [23]. - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, and the futures market has shown a weak and oscillating trend recently [25]. 3. Summary by Directory Core Drivers of Rubber Price - Supply: Domestic rubber production has completely stopped, while Southeast Asian countries are still in the tapping season, so the short - term supply is relatively loose. The low - production season will gradually take effect after February, but the support is limited [3]. - Demand: Although the tire production rate has rebounded, terminal consumption is weak. High - priced raw materials suppress buying, and pre - holiday inventory replenishment is unlikely to exceed expectations, lacking the power for continuous upward movement [3]. - Inventory: The inventory in Qingdao area has increased week by week, and the pressure of inventory accumulation continues, suppressing the upward space of futures prices [3]. - Macro and Correlation: The decline of crude oil prices, the weakness of the energy - chemical sector, the price cut of synthetic rubber, and the profit - taking of long positions have intensified the correction of natural rubber prices [3]. Operation Suggestions for Rubber - For single - side trading, it is advisable to try short positions on rebounds. Before the holiday, the market volatility increases, so it is necessary to strictly control the position and set strict stop - losses to avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. Technical Analysis of Different Commodities - Stock Index Futures: Operate according to the oscillation idea [7][8]. - Gold: Take a long - position strategy [12]. - Iron Ore: Maintain a bearish and oscillating view [15][16]. - Glass: Maintain a bearish and oscillating view [19][20]. - Rubber: Be bearish due to macro - environment and inventory factors [23]. - Pulp: The inventory is accumulating, and the futures market is in a weak and oscillating state [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.35%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a high level, while demand is weak, and the fundamentals continue to deteriorate. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure, but the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.24%, also showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, while the demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again. Prices are under pressure, but speculative demand is acceptable. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.06%, showing a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, iron ore inventory is high, the supply pressure is only slightly relieved, and demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening, and ore prices are still under pressure. However, steel mills will replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, providing some support to ore prices. Subsequently, the trend will maintain a weakly fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to steel mills' stock - replenishment [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, the global new ship orders were 313 vessels, totaling 8,394,912 CGT. Compared with November 2025, the number increased by 94 vessels, and the corrected gross tonnage increased by 24.53% month - on - month. Compared with December 2024, the number increased by 82 vessels, and the corrected gross tonnage increased by 72.77% year - on - year. China received 229 vessels, totaling 5,758,242 CGT, accounting for 68.59% of the global new ship orders [7]. - In 2025, China's excavator output was 379,643 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. In December 2025, the output was 37,305 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. In 2025, the output of major mechanical equipment in China varied, with excavators showing significant growth and small tractors showing a significant decline of 15.4% year - on - year [8]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.177 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to December, the cumulative crude steel output was 960.812 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In 2025, Hebei ranked first with an output of 190.6112 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 113.4934 million tons and Liaoning with 68.8303 million tons [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of various black - metal products are presented in a table, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and iron ore - related products. For example, the Shanghai price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3,240, and the national average price is 3,318 [10]. 3. Futures Market - The table shows the futures prices of the main contracts, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore. For example, the closing price of rebar is 3,124, with a daily increase of 0.35%, and the closing price of iron ore is 786.5, with a daily increase of 0.06% [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, as well as the total inventory of rebar (steel mills + social inventory) and hot - rolled coil (steel mills + social inventory) [14][20][25]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, the seasonal inventory of 45 ports, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron ore concentrates [22]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - and - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [29][31][36]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply has rebounded to a high level, and demand is weak. The fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and prices are under pressure in the off - season. However, the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Supply pressure remains, and demand resilience is weakening. Industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. However, speculative demand is acceptable. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand will remain weak, but steel mills will replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, providing some support to ore prices. Subsequently, the trend will maintain a weakly fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to steel mills' stock - replenishment [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation and weakening", due to sufficient imports and low - level operation of coking coal [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation and weakening", because of the stalemate between long and short positions and the oscillation and consolidation of coke [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqi Maodu Port in the spot market is 1,240.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. Overall, Mongolian coal imports remain high, resulting in a situation of increasing supply and stable demand for coking coal, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. The pre - winter storage and replenishment and the expectation of coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival have fermented. Without policy intervention, the coal price may be suppressed by the fundamentals and maintain low - level operation before the Spring Festival [5]. Coke - The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. Recently, the game between coke enterprises and steel mills has increased. Coke plants have a strong willingness to raise prices, but downstream acceptance is low. At present, coke maintains a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak fundamentals. The increase in Mongolian coal imports weakens the cost support for coke, and the iron - water production reduction worry caused by the steel mill accident makes the coke market atmosphere dull, and the futures maintain low - level and weak operation [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Jinxin Futures PTA Ethylene Glycol Daily - Report Date: January 21, 2026 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute [1] PTA Analysis Market Performance - On January 21, the PTA主力期货合约 TA605 rose 1.50%, and the basis strengthened to -61 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China was 5095 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Brent crude oil in the cost side fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day. A new material plant reduced its load for maintenance, and a Xin Fengming plant restarted. The weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.62 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.02 days [3] Main Force Trends - Short - side main forces increased their positions [3] Trend Expectation - The current PTA processing fee is at a high level, but there are no plans to further increase the load of PTA plants. The inventory of terminal weaving is accumulating. Pay attention to the early holiday situation of polyester factories before the Spring Festival. It is expected that terminal demand will weaken before the end of January. The market is generally bullish on upstream PX. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) Analysis Market Performance - On January 21, the ethylene glycol主力期货合约 eg2605 fell 0.59%, and the basis strengthened to -100 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3581 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The coal price in the cost side was under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 73.6 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared with last Thursday [4] Main Force Trends - There were differences between long - side and short - side main forces [4] Trend Expectation - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still relatively high, and the port inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure. Many overseas plants have maintenance plans in the future, but it is expected that the operating rate of downstream polyester will decline. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will still fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price continues to rise due to supply disruptions and strong demand, and it may remain strong in the future. The sugar price keeps falling because of sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to decline further. The prices of live pigs, soybean meal, and cotton are all under pressure, while the egg price shows a narrow - range fluctuation [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil prices continue to rise. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' operating licenses and Malaysia's production - reduction and export - increase situation support the price. Sugar prices keep falling due to sufficient supply from new domestic sugar and increased imports and weak demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2605 continues to rise strongly. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' licenses affects the supply. From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and exports increased by 11.04% month - on - month. It is expected that the inventory reduction in January may be large. During the Spring Festival, demand may improve. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to look for support levels at 8750 - 8780 to go long with a light position [2]. (2) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2605 continues to fall. New sugar is concentrated on the market, and in December, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December 2025 were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. The pre - festival stocking has limited effect, and the downstream purchasing slows down. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 5180 - 5200 [3]. (3) Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to fall. The pig slaughter level is high, and the inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The pre - festival stocking has not fully started, and the demand is insufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 11600 - 11700 [5]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 rebounds weakly. The downstream feed enterprise pre - festival stocking is nearly over, and the inventory may rise. The raw material import of soybeans is large, and the supply is sufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position for short - term trading [7]. (5) Eggs - The egg main contract 2603 has a narrow - range fluctuation. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the supply is sufficient. The pre - festival stocking supports the price, but the downstream is afraid of high prices. Technically, it shows some strength. The strategy is short - term trading [9]. (6) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2605 first rises and then falls. The expected decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 has been digested. In December 2025, cotton imports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month, and the annual import in 2025 was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. The inventory increased slightly. The demand is resilient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost side, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **主力合约情况**: On January 20, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 2.14%, and the basis weakened to - 68 yuan/ton [2]. - **基本面情况**: The market price of PTA in East China today is 5010 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Brent crude oil on the cost side fluctuates around 64 US dollars per barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day. A new material plant reduced its load for maintenance this week, and a Xin凤鸣 plant restarted. The weekly inventory days of PTA factories are 3.62 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 days [3]. - **主力动向**: The long - position main force increased positions [3]. - **走势预期**: The current PTA processing fee is at a high level, but there is no plan to further increase the load of PTA plants. The inventory of terminal weaving has accumulated. Attention should be paid to the situation of polyester factories taking early holidays before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the terminal demand will weaken before the end of January. The market is unanimously bullish on upstream PX, and it is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **主力合约情况**: On January 20, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 2.52%, and the basis strengthened to - 116 yuan/ton [4]. - **基本面情况**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3595 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The coal price on the cost side is under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 73.6 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared with last Thursday [4]. - **主力动向**: There is a divergence between the long and short main forces [4]. - **走势预期**: The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still relatively high, coupled with high port inventories, resulting in relatively large supply pressure. There are maintenance plans for multiple overseas plants in the future, but it is expected that the downstream polyester operating rate will decline. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will still oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is high, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Domestically, the reduction of syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the overall EG production load continues to rise. There is still great pressure on inventory accumulation in January - February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas, the import pressure will ease after February as some devices are under maintenance, but the reduction in imports is slow, and the pressure in January remains high. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, and the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. - For trading strategies, the current price is low with some buying support, but due to high downstream implicit inventory, increasing port inventory, and slow reduction in imports, the inventory accumulation pressure in January - February is large, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to conduct an inverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. International Price Difference No specific data analysis provided, only mentioned the "ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - As the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is 20.5 tons, and the arrival in secondary ports is 1 ton, with high overall arrivals, and inventory accumulation in the main ports is expected [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both apples and red dates is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Opinions - Apple market: The overall trading of apples is slow, with a weak demand and a long - term impact from substitute fruits. Attention should be paid to the actual consumption during the Spring Festival stocking. The price shows a polarization trend, with high - quality fruits having price support and low - quality fruits having a weak price [3] - Red date market: Although there is a reduction in production, the supply situation remains loose due to the combination of old and new stocks. The market focus has shifted to the consumer side. Attention should be paid to the actual sales speed and inventory reduction performance during the traditional lunar month [7] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9345 yuan/ton, a change of - 196 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.05% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis of AP05 was - 1341 in Qixia and - 1141 in Luochuan, with an increase of 266 from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8815 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.68% [5] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis of CJ05 was - 815, a decrease of 140 from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apples - In some sub - producing areas, the sales of apples have slightly improved during the Spring Festival stocking period, but the sales in the distribution areas are average, with serious backlogs in transit warehouses. The stocking in the producing areas may accelerate this week [2] Red dates - The acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang has ended. The prices in different regions are different, and the acquisition adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The prices in the Hebei and Guangdong markets are stable, and the downstream purchases according to demand [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price opened low and closed low yesterday. The overall trading in the producing areas is slow, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect of other fruits is obvious. The Spring Festival is postponed this year, and the stocking period has also been postponed [3] Red dates - The red date futures price fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market focus has shifted to consumption. Although there is a reduction in production, the supply is still loose. The downstream starts to replenish goods, but the acceptance of high - price goods is average [7] Group 6: Figures - The report includes figures such as the market prices, contract closing prices, basis, and spreads of apples and red dates, as well as the production, consumption, inventory, and shipment volume of apples and red dates [10]

生猪期货：走出底部震荡区间 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）2026年1月12—18日生猪期现同步震荡偏强，期货主力LH2603周涨 2.25%、现货外三元均价周涨 1.81%，核心驱动是集团场控量挺价 + 散户惜售，需求端 "旺季不旺"、屠 企开工率偏低限制涨幅。 供应端：集团场1月出栏计划下调约3%，散户惜售压栏，适重生猪供应收缩，支撑价格；但能繁母猪存 栏仍处高位，大体重猪源充足，长期供应压力未减。需求端：南方腌腊高峰已过，北方集中消费未全面启 动，屠企开工率偏低，消费对价格拉动有限，上涨主要依赖供应端收缩。 期货研究报告 2026年01月19日 核心变量：补栏增加，短期支撑价格；若集中出栏，或加剧供应压力，拖累价格。若集中出栏，短期 供应增加，期货或回调至11800以下；控量挺价延续，价格维持震荡上行。操作建议：价格回落至11800— 11900，企稳后入场。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 频率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The document provides an analysis of various futures trading strategies across different commodities, indicating a cautious market sentiment with a mix of short-term trading opportunities and a general tendency to observe market movements [5][10]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The analysis includes a variety of commodities such as rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, and crude oil, with most strategies suggesting a "wait and see" approach, indicating market uncertainty [5][10]. - Specific commodities like iron ore and stainless steel are highlighted for short-term buying opportunities, while others like焦煤 (coking coal) are recommended for short selling [5][10]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The trading strategies are categorized into "big trend" and "small trend," with most commodities showing a "震荡" (fluctuating) trend, suggesting volatility in the market [5][10]. - The document assigns a rating system to the strategies, with most commodities receiving a rating of ★★, indicating moderate confidence in the suggested strategies [5][10]. Group 3: Specific Commodity Insights - For specific commodities, the document notes that rubber and corn are recommended for short-term buying, while others like焦炭 (coke) and棕榈油 (palm oil) are suggested to be observed without immediate action [5][10]. - The analysis also includes a focus on agricultural products like cotton and eggs, with varying strategies based on market conditions [5][10].