Report Title - Manganese Silicon Weekly Report (August 18 - August 22) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the cost aspect, the centralized pre - procurement of northern alloy plants is nearing completion, port activity has decreased, high - price offers from miners are reducing, and the "buy on rising" sentiment in the market has increased with strong wait - and - see mood and cautious procurement. Coke has been stable recently, and the current spot cost has little change [2]. - Regarding the supply side, the overall start - up of the north and south markets has little fluctuation. Factory inventory pressure is temporarily not large as manufacturers were active in hedging or selling before. Due to the weak operation of the silicon - manganese futures market and cost inversion, alloy plants are reluctant to lower prices, and many are not quoting prices, with a rising bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - From the demand side, affected by the decline of the silicon - manganese futures market, the new steel tender prices have dropped significantly after the HeSteel tender, with acceptance pricing concentrated around 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, and the acceptance of silicon - manganese alloy is average. The approaching military parade production restrictions in northern steel mills are expected to temporarily suppress the demand for silicon - manganese alloy [2]. - Overall, the sentiment in the silicon - manganese market has cooled slightly recently. The silicon - manganese price stabilized after a mid - week decline, and the future price trend still depends on the futures market fluctuations and changes in supply - demand fundamentals. It is predicted that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and annual production in different regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas are presented [6][7] - **Production**: - Annual, weekly, and monthly production data of Chinese silicon - manganese are shown, along with the weekly start - up rate of silicon - manganese enterprises [7][10] - Monthly production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are provided [11][12] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Procurement Volume**: Monthly procurement volumes of silicon - manganese 6517 by enterprises such as HeSteel Group, Shagang Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., as well as the weekly demand in China are presented [13] - **Steel Tender Procurement Price**: Monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by enterprises like Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, and others are shown [15] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Weekly data on the daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are provided [17] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Monthly import and export quantities of ferromanganese - silicon in China are presented [19] Manganese Silicon Inventory - Weekly inventory data of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are provided [21] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Monthly import volumes of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [23] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Weekly port inventory data of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory in China are provided [25] - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port are presented [27] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [28] - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are presented [29] Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in regions such as the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term disk of rebar and iron ore is expected to operate weakly, with the previous rebar rebound nearing its end and entering an adjustment phase, and the iron ore disk following the coking coal and coke trends for adjustment [3][8][11] 3. Summary by Category Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 10 - contract declined slightly under the drive of increased short - position by main players, closing at 3188 yuan/ton on Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan or 0.78% [5] - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in major regions decreased slightly, with the national average rebar price dropping 10 yuan to 3384 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [5] - **Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased slightly, and the apparent consumption of rebar dropped significantly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.2 tons to 10.0 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to accumulate. The total rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons to 587.19 tons [8] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar is expected to continue to widen, as the current basis is around the average value [8] Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 - contract completed the roll - over, maintaining a range - bound trend. It closed at 776.0 yuan/ton on Friday, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32% [8] - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the price of domestic iron ore concentrate rose steadily [8] - **Supply**: As of the 11th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2530.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The 45 - port arrivals totaled 2381.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 tons [11] - **Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports was 334.67 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.82 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [11] - **Inventory**: As of the 15th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, reaching 13819.27 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9136.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 123 tons [11] - **Basis**: The basis of iron ore is expected to continue to widen, as the current basis is at the average level [11]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - This week, the supply change was flat, and downstream industries had a phased restocking. By the end of the month, enterprise inventories decreased rapidly due to assessment plans, but social inventories increased due to imported arrivals. Overall, supply and demand remained loose [6] Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate was 84.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14%; PE weekly output was 661,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14% [9] Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries decreased seasonally, with the downstream weighted operating rate at 39.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89% [9] Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory was 444,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.76%; social inventory was 568,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.23% [9] Upstream and Cost - No specific data provided in the summary part Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.29% month-on-month to 7,392 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.38% month-on-month to 7,351 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Spread - The basis was 41; the (9 - 1) spread was -45 [9]

1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production scheduling continues to increase. The demand side shows continuous recovery, with continuous increases in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a short - term decrease followed by a medium - term recovery in component production. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production cut plans, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of demand after the festival and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply was 84,000 tons, a 370% increase from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 1143% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicone inventory is at a low level, and the comprehensive silicone production profit is 479 yuan/ton. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the Xinjiang sample of oxygen - passing 553 production has a loss of 2888 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: On August 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 130% to 547,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.81% to 170,050 tons, and the main port inventory decreased by 0.84% to 118,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production have different trends, and the production profit is 9720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 11, the N - type dense material price was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5985 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level in the same period [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. 2. Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of increase. The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of various silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, and the production, inventory, and export data of polysilicon and its downstream products also changed [17]. 3. Other Data and Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - sample area trends, and weekly and monthly supply - demand balance trends are presented [19][22][25][30][32][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon and their downstream products are also analyzed [40][45][48][59].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5010 | 17 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 734439 | 52084 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 589321 | -45885 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 368253 | -50661 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 391529 | -26014 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -23276 | -24647 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5125 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4905.38 | -22.31 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5035 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4948.75 | 0 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价( ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations with a minor increase in prices, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a potential for price adjustments in the near future [1] Supply Side - PVC production last week was reported at 466,000 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons or 0.80% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.62%, down by 0.63% [1] Demand Side - The real estate sector is witnessing slow new construction and project progress, leading to a demand lull; enterprises in profiles and pipes are operating at low capacity, primarily focusing on essential purchases, resulting in increased inquiries but limited transactions [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, supply is expected to remain stable while demand gradually recovers, leading to a narrowing supply-demand gap; however, the market is anticipated to experience weak fluctuations in PVC prices due to the restoration of short-selling pressures and significant production profits [1]

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年08月04日-08月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周11合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8490元/吨,周五收盘价为8710元/吨，周涨幅为2.59%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.4万吨，环比增加3.70%。本周样本企业产量为35105万吨,环 比增加7.60%;其中云南样本企业开工率为67.44%,环比增加3.99%,四川样本企业开工率为29.92%,环 比持平,新疆样本企业开工率为52.27%,环比增加9.42%,西北样本企业开工率为76%,环比持平。预计 本月开工率为53.8%,较上月开工率52.61%增加1.19个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7.8万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | . | 4万吨 ， | 环比有所增加3 | 70% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | | 8万吨 . | 环比增长11 ， | 43% . . | | 需求有所抬升 | . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为23 . | 3万吨 ...