Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are generally bearish, with expected increases in supply and weak market performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 01 contract of the main cotton is expected to have a short - term weak rebound. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [4]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The national cotton output is expected to reach 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have different data for the 25/26 annual output, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report shows a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA9 monthly report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,664, and the basis is 1344 (01 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in October of the 25/26 annual period to be 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is about to pass, the market is sluggish, and textile and clothing exports in September are weak. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. The main 01 contract will have a short - term weak rebound [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in the 25/26 annual period is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; the total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 25/26 annual period, the global production is 2.590 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); the consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 annual period, the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, cotton prices showed a mild and slightly fluctuating trend. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. The main contract 01 has a weak rebound, and there is an expectation of further bottom - hunting. It is recommended to short on rallies [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include a reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - After the National Day holiday, there were only two trading days. Cotton prices fluctuated slightly. The expected national cotton output is 722 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.5 million tons and consumption is 25.5 million tons; the USDA September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: A reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content provided for "Today's Focus" in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production and consumption forecast for 2025/26 shows that the total production is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons, and total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons. The ending inventory is 15.925 million tons [10]. - The ICAC's global cotton supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 shows that the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's data for the 2025/26 shows that the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific content provided for "Position Data" in the report.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is generally bearish. The expected supply increase due to the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, combined with a weak market performance during the peak season and the resurgence of Trump's tariff - increasing remarks, leads to an expectation of further decline in the main 01 contract. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts show a complex supply - demand situation for cotton. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report indicates 2550 million tons of production and consumption in the 25/26 season; the USDA9 monthly report shows 2562.2 million tons of production and 2587.2 million tons of consumption. China's textile and clothing exports in August decreased by 5% year - on - year, and cotton imports decreased by 51.6% year - on - year, while棉纱 imports increased by 18.18% year - on - year. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14757, with a basis of 1432 (01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 822 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, supply is expected to increase. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: Global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports. For example, China's production is expected to be 707.6 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 838.2 million tons [9]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, consumption is 2.560 million tons, ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, and global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 25/26 season, China's production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14000 - 16000 yuan per ton [13]. 5. Position Data - The main position of cotton is bearish, with an increase in net short positions [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, although the cottonseed price has rebounded and the decline of cotton price has slowed down, the upcoming concentrated listing of new cotton will relieve the low inventory situation, and with the weakening downstream demand, the upward drive of cotton price is insufficient. In the long - term, due to the expansion of domestic textile production capacity and relatively low import quotas, the supply - demand of cotton in the new year may still be tight [1][4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - In late September, adverse weather in Xinjiang delayed the cotton picking. After the National Day holiday, the machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang started to be purchased. The purchase price first decreased and then increased with small fluctuations. In mid - and late October, the concentrated listing of new cotton will put pressure on cotton prices. The downstream peak season is weakening, and the cotton price rebound power is poor. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply - demand may still be tight due to import quota limitations [1][4][17] 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The trend of cotton is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 fluctuating between 13,000 - 13,600. It is recommended to short on rebounds. The short - term basis is stable and may weaken later. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [23] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for cotton in the near future: 13,000 - 13,600. For inventory management, when inventory is high, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [21] 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,325, down 205 (- 1.52%); 05 closed at 13,375, down 160 (- 1.18%); 09 closed at 13,550, down 160 (- 1.17%). Spot: CC Index 3128B was 14,775, up 22 (0.15%); 2227B was 12,932, up 21 (0.16%); 2129B was 15,039, up 28 (0.19%). Spinning yarn: futures price was 19,375, down 405 (- 2.05%); spot price was 20,460, down 120 (- 0.58%) [22][24] 3.2 This Week's Important Information 3.2.1 Bullish Information - As of September 26, the national new cotton picking progress was 1.5%, up 0.2 percentage points year - on - year; the delivery rate was 26%, up 10.3 percentage points year - on - year; the processing rate was 22%, down 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. On October 8, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.02 yuan/kg [25] 3.2.2 Bearish Information - In 2025, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to be 2.14 million hectares, up 7.5% year - on - year; the total output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, up 7.0% year - on - year [26] 3.2.3 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Pay attention to the purchase price of machine - picked cotton and the output determination in Xinjiang, as well as the release of the USDA report, the growth and export of US cotton [27] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After the National Day holiday, funds flowed back. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in positions and price on the first trading day after the holiday, but the upward pressure was large due to hedging by some ginneries, and the rebound was weak [31] 3.3.2 Month - spread Structure - The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure. Near - month contracts are weak due to supply increase and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34] 3.3.3 Basis Structure - This week, the cotton basis was stable as new cotton had not been fully supplied. On October 10, the basis of new machine - picked cotton in different regions of Xinjiang was in a certain range [38] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technology, Xinjiang's spinning mills have cost advantages and profits. Before the National Day, domestic spinning mills' profits improved. Recently, Xinjiang mills still have good profits, while those in the inland have slightly declined [40] 3.4.2 Import Profit Tracking - This year, China's cotton import profit has been high, but import quotas are tight. The additional 200,000 - ton quota has limited impact on the market, and the current import profit is still at a relatively high level [43] 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest, but the output increase may narrow. The estimated import volume is 1.1 million tons. Domestic consumption is not overly pessimistic, with stable domestic demand and uncertain foreign sales [46][47]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万 吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14759， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: The global cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the OECD lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, trade frictions and inflation continue to suppress cotton consumption. The U.S. cotton harvest lags behind previous years, while Brazil's harvest is nearly complete and Pakistan's new - cotton listing has increased significantly. Given the macro - economic downturn and short - term supply increase, international cotton prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [40]. - Domestic: The domestic cotton market is approaching a seasonal supply peak, and prices face significant downward pressure around the National Day. New cotton picking has started, but farmers are waiting and watching. The futures market has led to a decline in expected purchase prices. With the expected concentrated listing and weak consumption, domestic cotton prices may face further correction pressure [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price and Spread - The weekly average price of international cotton spot increased, and the spread between domestic and international cotton prices continued to narrow. The weekly average price of China's CC Index3128B was 15,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the Cotlook A 1% tariff converted into RMB and the CC Index3128B narrowed by 132 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (USDA) - **Global**: The expected total global cotton production in the current year is 25.622 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 tons (0.9%); consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons (0.7%); imports are 9.516 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons (0.3%); exports are 9.515 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons (0.3%); the global ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons (1.0%) [9]. - **US**: In 2025/26, the U.S. cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, an increase of 115,000 mu; the harvested area is 44.729 million mu, an increase of 79,000 mu; the abandonment rate is 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit is expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, a slight decrease; the production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, with little change. The ending inventory remains at 784,000 tons [12]. - **China**: The expected production is 7.076 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons (3.2%); consumption is expected to be 8.382 million tons, an increase of 217,000 tons (2.7%); imports are expected to be 1.132 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons (1.9%). Considering the decrease in initial supply, the ending inventory decreases by 229,000 tons to 7.396 million tons [14]. 3.3 Growth and Harvest Progress - **US**: As of September 21, the U.S. cotton boll - opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average. In Texas, the boll - opening rate was 53%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average, and the picking progress was 23%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average [18]. - **China**: As of September 25, the national new cotton picking progress was only 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year - on - year, still in the initial stage [40]. 3.4 Climate Conditions - **US**: The precipitation in the U.S. was relatively low. As of September 16, the drought - affected area accounted for 40.8% of the total area, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week. In Texas, the drought - affected area accounted for 20.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week [21]. - **China**: From September 30 to October 5, Xinjiang was affected by cold air, with rain, snow, and strong winds in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on cotton harvesting [22]. 3.5 Import and Inventory - **Import**: In August 2025, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (40.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (51.6%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.9% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of September 2025, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305,800 tons, at a historically low level. The industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons, at a historically high level [26][30]. 3.6 Export Sign - ups and Shipments (US) - As of September 18, 2025, the U.S. had cumulatively signed 947,000 tons of cotton for export in the 2025/26 season, accounting for 36.22% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 220,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 23.23%. China had cumulatively signed 17,000 tons, accounting for 1.77% of the signed volume, and had shipped 2,000 tons, accounting for 11.76% of the signed volume [28]. 3.7 Downstream Market - **Yarn**: The spot price of cotton yarn decreased slightly. Downstream traders and weaving factories replenished stocks for the National Day and subsequent demand, and the sales of cotton yarn were good. Some spinning enterprises had normal holidays during the National Day, while some extended their holidays. The opening rates of yarn mills in different regions were basically stable [34]. - **Retail**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74% [37].

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The current spot market is tight, but as new cotton is about to be listed, market tension will ease. Despite the USDA's report raising global consumption, macro - economic data shows no significant improvement. With global production increasing, supply - demand is balanced. New cotton will flood the market in October, bringing significant pressure and potential price fluctuations [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market follows cotton prices. Due to intense industry competition and declining exports, future pressure is expected to be high [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 9 - month Market Review - In September, Zhengzhou cotton and yarn prices fluctuated weakly. The approaching new cotton listing and less - than - expected "Golden September and Silver October" conditions led to market pressure. The spot market was tight, but the market was trading on future expectations. Yarn followed cotton, with over - capacity compressing spinning profits, and more pressure expected with further expansion in Xinjiang [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons (up 23 million tons, 0.9% month - on - month), consumption 2587.2 million tons (up 18.4 million tons, 0.7% month - on - month), imports 951.6 million tons (up 2.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), exports 951.5 million tons (up 2.5 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), and ending stocks 1592.5 million tons (down 16.8 million tons, 1.0% month - on - month). In 2024/25, production and consumption are expected to increase, with ending stocks decreasing [14]. - **US Cotton**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting and harvest areas decreased, and the national abandonment rate increased month - on - month. The signing and export of US upland cotton were slow. As of September 18, 2025, the US had a cumulative net signed export of 94.7 million tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 36.22% of the expected annual export, with a shipment rate of 23.23% [15][20]. - **Indian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production is expected to be 531.1 million tons (up 1.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), imports 69.7 million tons (up 3.4 million tons, 5.1% month - on - month). Consumption and exports are stable. Ending stocks increased by 5.1 million tons to 103 million tons (up 5.2% month - on - month) [22]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase to 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a 7.3% year - on - year increase. The national yield per mu is expected to decrease to 125.8 kg/mu, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. Total production is expected to reach 3.935 million tons, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. In 2024/25, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a 5.8% year - on - year increase, earning about $4.85 billion [25]. - **Domestic Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, China's total supply increased by 41 million tons to 14.95 million tons. Total demand increased by 12 million tons to 8.42 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 29 million tons to 6.53 million tons. As of the end of August, commercial and industrial cotton inventories decreased significantly. In August, cotton and yarn imports showed different trends [27][31][36]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales reached 396.68 billion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total was 3.23906 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. Clothing, footwear, and textile retail sales in August were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [43]. - **External Demand**: In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.766 billion, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, exports were $170.741 billion, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Textile Industry Inventory**: In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a 0.12% month - on - month increase. Textile and clothing inventory was 189.91 billion yuan, a 1.03% month - on - month increase [48]. - **US Retail and Inventory**: In July 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales were $26.908 billion, a 6.44% year - on - year increase. In June, retailer inventory was $58.349 billion, a 1.37% year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.20 [56]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: The spot market for pure - cotton yarn had average trading, with prices following Zhengzhou cotton down. Spinning mills continued to reduce inventory slightly, and the operating rate was stable. The all - cotton grey fabric weaving factories mainly had small - batch orders, with limited growth, and the operating rate changed little [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [3] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term outlook for cotton: This year, new cotton is on the market. With current prices in the low - value range, cotton purchases are likely to be stable. Around the National Day, firm spot prices support seed cotton prices, preventing deep drops in futures. After mid - to late October, as new cotton supply increases and hedging pressure rises, futures may first open low, then rebound, and finally decline. The short - term fluctuation range of CF2601 futures price is 13,200 - 14,200. Whether it can exceed 14,200 in October depends on the post - National Day spot tightness. Long - term outlook: Due to potentially tight domestic supply - demand next year, balanced global supply - demand, the Fed's shift to a rate - cut cycle, and possible continuous domestic favorable policies, the market is expected to improve macroscopically, showing an upward oscillating trend in the long run [5]. - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn markets mainly oscillated downward. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, worse than previous years. Low - count yarns performed better, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September [7]. Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - and medium - term: New cotton purchase likely stable, futures supported by spot before National Day, may decline after mid - to late October. CF2601 short - term range 13,200 - 14,200. Long - term: Tight domestic supply - demand next year, global balance, possible favorable policies, long - term upward oscillation [5]. 02 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn oscillated downward. Pure - cotton yarn market trading was average, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses, market concerned about September orders [7]. 03 - Market Review - Cotton market: Zhengzhou cotton broke through support and trended down. Market focused on new cotton listing, with increased Xinjiang cotton production and yarn capacity, and tight spot market causing divergence. Cotton yarn market: Pure - cotton yarn trading was average, worse than previous years, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses [11]. 04 - International Macroeconomics - In the US, various economic indicators such as ISM manufacturing PMI, employment data, trade balance, inflation, and interest rates had different changes in September 2025. In the Eurozone, unemployment, CPI, PPI, GDP, and interest rates also showed specific trends [12]. 05 - Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, in September 2025, foreign exchange reserves increased, CPI and PPI had specific changes, M2 money supply remained stable, social financing scale and new RMB loans had significant differences from previous values, and indicators like fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment also changed [14]. 06 - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, imports, and exports all increased slightly compared to the previous month, while the ending inventory decreased. Total supply increased slightly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio changed [16][17]. 08 - US Cotton Exports - From September 5 - 11, 2025, US net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton increased, while shipments decreased. Net signing of Pima cotton increased, but shipments decreased. China's net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton was 998 tons, with no shipments [22]. 09 - Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of August, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased significantly compared to the previous month and last year. Industrial cotton inventory in textile enterprises decreased slightly. Total industrial and commercial inventories decreased year - on - year [23]. 10 - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports in July - In August 2025, China's cotton imports increased from the previous month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton yarn imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January - August and the 2024/25 season decreased compared to the previous year [28]. 11 - Cotton Yarn Production and Sales in August - In August, the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half. Spinning enterprises' profit margins improved, with reduced losses. August production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and cumulative production from January - August increased year - on - year [32]. 12 - US Cotton Growth - As of September 14, US cotton boll opening and harvesting rates were close to the average of recent years, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. Yield is expected to increase steadily [35]. 13 - US Cotton Weather - As of September 16, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, approaching the 5 - year average. Early - stage drought had limited impact, and the weekly good - to - excellent rate was good [39]. 14 - Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 15, 2025, Xinjiang cotton was in the late boll - opening stage, with a high boll - opening rate. The second round of defoliant spraying was in progress, and some early - maturing varieties in northern Xinjiang had started picking [41]. 15 - Textile Industry Inventories - In July, textile industry inventories increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year. Textile and garment inventories showed different trends in month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [42]. 16 - Domestic Demand - In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail总额 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles also increased [47]. 17 - External Demand - Exports - In July 2025, China's textile and garment exports decreased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. From January - July, exports increased year - on - year [50]. 18 - US Apparel Retail Sales in July - In July 2025, US apparel and clothing accessory retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In June, retailer inventories increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased [56]. 19 - US Cotton Product Imports in July - In July 2025, US cotton product imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Textile and garment imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [59]. 20 - Warehouse Receipts - As of September 18, 2024/25 season warehouse receipts decreased compared to the previous week [61]. 21 - Non - Commercial Long Positions - As of September 9, ICE cotton futures non - commercial futures plus options net long positions decreased, as did non - commercial futures net long positions and commodity index fund net long positions [65]. 22 - Spinning Mill Load - As of September 12, the pure - cotton yarn mill load index remained flat, the rayon yarn load remained flat, and the polyester yarn load increased slightly [68]. 23 - Weaving Mill Load - The pure - cotton grey fabric load index, rayon fabric load index, and short - fiber fabric comprehensive load all increased [72]. 24 - Industrial Chain Inventories - Textile enterprises' cotton, cotton yarn, and pure - cotton grey fabric inventories decreased compared to the previous week. Improving demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season led to inventory decline, supporting prices [76]. 25 - Industrial Chain Profits - In the spot market, the pure - cotton yarn market was mediocre. Spinning enterprises wanted to maintain prices, and yarn prices declined slightly with Zhengzhou cotton. Profits improved slightly, with inland enterprises' C32S cash - flow losses around 300 yuan/ton [82]. 26 - Basis - This week, the basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The current basis is 1448 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. New cotton purchase prices are out, and the basis for pre - sold new cotton is relatively high and stable [83]. 27 - Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - This year, domestic cotton is stronger than foreign cotton. However, after October, with Xinjiang cotton harvest and possible large - scale arrival of Brazilian cotton in November - December, the situation may change. In the long run, domestic supply may be tight next year, so one should not blindly short domestic and long foreign cotton [86]. 28 - Inter - Month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread is - 115 yuan/ton this week. Considering next year's supply - demand and macro - factors, the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong. However, due to factors like warehouse receipt cancellation in November, the spread may fluctuate between - 80 and - 200 [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral to bearish [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gradual increase in the supply of new cotton is putting pressure on the market, but there may still be a risk of a short - term rebound due to potential local抢购 (hoarding) at the beginning. The demand side shows a weak trend, especially in the export market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. The market expects a more than 90% chance of another rate cut in October. China held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption [3] Supply Factors International - In the US, the cotton boll opening rate reached 50%, the harvest progress was 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate decreased by 2% to 52% but was still 13% higher than the same period. The USDA maintained its view of US cotton production at 2.878 million tons. The overall US cotton signing progress lags behind recent years. In Brazil, the harvest progress reached 90%, and the expected production is 4 million tons. Other major northern - hemisphere producing countries are also about to enter the harvest season [3] Domestic - Domestic and international institutions have further raised the production forecast, with a guaranteed production of 7.4 million tons. New cotton has started to be harvested and inspected, and there is no obvious negative impact from rain. The pre - purchase volume of the new season may have reached over 1.5 million tons, nearly three times that of the same period last year. The initial opening price in Xinjiang is expected to be between 6.1 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the cost of lint production is about 13,900 - 15,100 yuan/ton. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources was about 193,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,644 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 56,795 tons [3] Inventory Factors - Domestically, the commercial destocking of cotton is still relatively fast, and the year - on - year difference is further widening. In the short term, the circulation pattern may still be tight. The terminal inventory continues to decline slightly, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is not strong. The USDA has lowered China's cotton stock - to - use ratio to a relatively low level in the past five years, which is expected to improve the center of cotton prices in the new year [3] Demand Factors - Domestically, the seasonal increase in the downstream operating rate and orders is blocked, and the performance is weak year - on - year. In August, the retail sales data showed an expanding year - on - year increase, but the foreign trade data was poor. The export of textile and clothing products to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly due to textiles [3] Cotton Futures and Spot - Both the fundamental and macro - economic aspects are weak. The cotton price rose and then fell during the week [7] Supply Details - In terms of raw materials, the national commercial inventory decreased by 129,200 tons to 1.2718 million tons this week; the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased by 97,000 tons to 649,800 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 39,500 tons to 331,500 tons. In terms of finished products, the inventory - available days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.04 days to 31.7 days, the terminal grey fabric inventory decreased by 0.3 days to 25.94 days, and the factory's polyester - cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.42 days to 28 days. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources increased month - on - month. As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 4,232, equivalent to 169,280 tons of cotton, and the outflow of warehouse receipts during the week was equivalent to 31,350 tons of cotton [19][21][23] Demand Details - The operating rate of spinning mills increased by 0.1% to 66.6% week - on - week, lower than the same period by 5.8%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.1% to 37.9%, lower than the same period by 14.5%. The orders of textile enterprises increased by 0.53 days to 14.42 days, higher than the same period by 0.62 days. The immediate profit of the mainstream yarn count in the inland area weakened slightly to - 1,311 yuan/ton. The total cotton cloth sales volume in the light textile city increased marginally. The fabric price index in Keqiao increased by 0.18 to 110.9, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 3.36 to 115.5. In August, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased seasonally but was weak year - on - year. The retail sales of clothing and textiles in August increased year - on - year, but the export of textile and clothing decreased by 5% year - on - year. Exports to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly [25][27][30][33][35] CFTC Position Data - The historically high volume of unpriced buy orders continues to suppress the rebound space of ICE [50] Macroeconomic Details - In August, domestic tax revenue weakened year - on - year, and the overseas consumer confidence index rebounded slightly [57]