交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。4月份我国棉花进口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱 进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部5月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消 费740万吨，期末库存853万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14862，基差1337（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices have significantly increased due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and accelerated commercial inventory depletion, leading to expectations of tighter supply before the new cotton harvest [2][3]. Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - On June 9, cotton futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a three-week high of 13,550 yuan/ton, closing at 13,495 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 1.09% [2]. - Since April 9, cotton futures prices have shown a cumulative increase of 6% after initially declining [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of May, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April, with monthly reductions exceeding 600,000 tons since March [3]. - Retail sales in April for clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 108.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, indicating strong domestic demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Factors - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase, with the planting area in Xinjiang projected to grow in 2025, supported by favorable climate conditions [4]. - In contrast, U.S. cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 12% in 2025, with the main cotton-producing state, Texas, seeing an 8% reduction [5]. Group 4: Global Cotton Market Outlook - The USDA forecasts a global cotton production increase of 1.76 million tons to 26.36 million tons for the 2024/25 season, while U.S. cotton production is expected to rise by 510,000 tons to 3.14 million tons [6]. - Recent U.S. cotton sales have been sluggish, with cumulative contracts down 6.8% year-on-year as of May 29 [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor macroeconomic impacts, cotton supply and demand dynamics, and weather conditions, as these factors will significantly influence cotton prices [7]. - Short-term cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate between 13,000 and 13,800 yuan/ton, with potential upward pressure from low inventory levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All strategies for cotton, sugar, and pulp are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Views - The cotton market is affected by multiple factors including US policies, global supply - demand balance, and domestic production and demand. The price is expected to be volatile with a potential for a second dip [2][3] - The sugar market is facing a shift from global supply shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and its price is influenced by Brazilian production and domestic import [6][7] - The pulp market is affected by macro - factors, supply - demand relationship, and tariff uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,445 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,553 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 1st, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, the same as last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 11 points lower than last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The US tariff policy is uncertain, and the domestic economic stimulus effect needs to be observed [2] - The USDA has adjusted the global cotton supply - demand balance for the 25/26 season, but there are still many uncertainties. The new - season US cotton planting area has decreased, and the sowing progress is slow, but the drought in the main producing areas has improved [2] - In China, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the new - season planting area is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is in the off - season with insufficient new orders [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The key lies in the time when downstream demand decline is transmitted to the upstream [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,732 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - India's sugar inventory at the end of the 2024 - 25 season is estimated to be about 4865,000 tons, and the 2025 - 26 season is expected to see a strong production recovery with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. The raw sugar price has stopped falling, but the new - season Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the global supply in the 25/26 season is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [6] - In China, the drought in Guangxi has been basically relieved, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable. However, the weak external market and expected increase in long - term import pressure limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on Brazilian production and domestic import rhythm [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5,304 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-2.03%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,375 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [8] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some price adjustments in individual varieties [8] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the pulp futures price fluctuated and declined. The macro - environment has a significant impact on the pulp market, and the tariff risk has been temporarily alleviated [9] - The cost support of pulp has weakened, the supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the off - season is coming [9] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to macro - uncertainties and weak demand [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it presents a "neutral" view on the cotton market, considering various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [3]. 2. Core View The fundamental pattern of the cotton market has limited improvement. The cotton price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the near term. The market is influenced by factors like tariff policies, supply and demand changes, and macro - economic trends. The US cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents due to a loose supply pattern, while the domestic cotton price may move in tandem with the external market. The actual increase in trade demand may be limited despite some warming expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro & Industry - The profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises in April increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. However, the cumulative profit of the textile and clothing industry in April decreased by 15.4% year - on - year [3]. - The US federal court's ruling on the Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and the repeated changes in tariff measures make the industry cautious [3]. 3.2 Supply - **International**: As of the week ending May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, the budding rate was 3%. The soil moisture in the US improved, which is negative for US cotton. The estimated cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase [3]. - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well. The planting area in southern Xinjiang may increase, and the new - season output is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The cost of planting is expected to remain stable or decline slightly. The imported cotton resources have decreased for four consecutive times [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic**: The industrial and commercial inventory in China is in the seasonal de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down recently. The replenishment progress of cotton yarn, grey cloth, and blended products has also slowed down [3]. - **International**: In March 2025, the inventory of US wholesalers' clothing and fabrics reached the lowest level in 37 months, and the retailers' inventory has declined. There was no obvious replenishment in Q1, and the latest data will show the US replenishment intention after the tariff war [3]. 3.4 Demand - **Domestic**: The domestic textile industry is in the off - season. The number of orders from spinning mills rebounded limitedly and then declined again. The profit of spinning mills remains at around - 1000 yuan, and the industry's profit in April continued to decline [3]. - **International**: The demand for US cotton has not significantly improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited. The "rush - to - export" effect may not be further amplified [3]. 3.5 Cotton Supply - Related - **Inventory Changes**: The total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China decreased by 162,900 tons to 4.3275 million tons this week. The port inventory decreased by 4700 tons to 485,600 tons. The cotton import in April was about 168,662 tons, reaching a near - historical low [13]. - **Product Inventory**: The inventory days of pure cotton yarn, terminal grey cloth, and factory - made polyester - cotton yarn increased this week. The inventory of textile mills' grey cloth decreased in April. The inventory of the clothing and textile industry of Chinese industrial enterprises in March increased by 2 billion yuan to 180.94 billion yuan [17]. 3.6 Cotton Market Performance - **Cotton Futures and Spot**: The cotton price is in a weak - running state with insufficient positive drivers. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price mostly fluctuates within a range [5][7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot**: The cotton yarn price was weak this week, showing slightly better resistance than cotton [8]. 3.7 Market Indicators - **US Cotton Planting**: As of May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, and the budding rate was 3% [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 29, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou were 11,157, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 11,537, equivalent to 461,480 tons of cotton [19]. - **Operating Rate**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly to 74.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate remained stable at 42.3%. The upward momentum of the operating rate slowed down [21]. - **Profit and Orders**: The immediate profit of spinning mills remained at around - 1000 yuan/ton. The order days of textile enterprises decreased to 11.38 days [23]. 3.8 Market Demand - Side - **Domestic Sales**: In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 108.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, the total export of textiles and clothing in China was 24.1863 billion US dollars. Textile exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year in the first four months, while clothing exports decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in the first four months [29]. 3.9 Industry Overview - The cotton - spinning industry has higher volatility, with lower order peaks and higher inventory production links. The demand - side weakness and supply - side surplus have not been fully alleviated [31]. 3.10 Competitor Situation - The cotton - polyester and cotton - viscose price differences have reached near - four - year lows, and the pressure on cotton consumption has weakened temporarily. However, due to factors such as new capacity expansion in the chemical fiber industry, the pressure on cotton from competitors is expected to remain strong [34]. 3.11 CFTC Position Data The non - commercial positions and the net short positions of funds have made a small correction, but the report does not provide detailed data [35]. 3.12 Macroeconomic Impact The profit differentiation of domestic enterprises continues to intensify, and the consumer confidence indices in Europe and the US have declined, which affects the cotton market [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is currently in a complex situation. The fundamental factors are generally bearish, with factors such as Sino - US tariff increases, increased inventory, and adjusted consumption predictions. However, the basis is bullish, and the current position of cotton is not suitable for chasing short positions. The 09 contract is expected to consolidate in the range of 12,700 - 13,000 in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) - The textile industry's prosperity index rebounded above the 52.47% boom - bust line in March. In April, USDA lowered consumption and increased inventory, and ICAC predicted a slight increase in production, unchanged consumption, and a slight increase in ending inventory. Textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year in March. From January to February, China's cotton imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.8%, and cotton yarn imports were 210,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. The Ministry of Agriculture predicted a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons for the 24/25 season [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,252 has a basis of 1422 (09 contract), showing a premium over futures [4]. - The expected ending inventory for the 24/25 season in April by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.31 million tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Sino - US tariff increases have little significance for further tariff hikes, and the fact of comprehensive trade decoupling is established. The traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak sales season for domestic cotton is coming to an end, and the market is generally quiet. The significant increase in textile and clothing exports in March was mainly due to pre - tariff - increase exports, not an improvement in the foreign trade market [4]. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2024/25 (April), the total global cotton production was 26.321 million tons, with a monthly adjustment of - 150,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7% (1.722 million tons). Total consumption was 25.261 million tons, with a monthly adjustment of - 114,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1% (266,000 tons) [8]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: For the 2024/25 season (April prediction), the initial inventory was 8.28 million tons, production was 6.16 million tons, imports were 1.5 million tons, consumption was 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory was 8.31 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index was in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [16]. 5.持仓数据 (Position Data) No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is generally bearish on the cotton market [2] Core Viewpoints - The global supply and demand adjustment in the 2024/25 cotton season is not significant, with a slight decrease in production, a decline in consumption, a minor reduction in imports and exports, and an increase in ending stocks [1][2] - The ongoing global trade conflict, especially the situation between China and the US, is the main factor influencing the short - term cotton market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - US trade and the planting and weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 2024/25 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global production is down 15,000 tons, with China's production up 54,000 tons to 6.967 million tons, and no adjustments for other major producers. The new - season planting in China and the US has started, and the supply data is basically settled [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption is down 114,000 tons month - on - month, with China's consumption down 109,000 tons, mainly due to the intensification of China - US trade frictions and the temporary halt of China's textile and clothing exports to the US [1] - **Imports**: Global imports are down 71,000 tons month - on - month, with China's imports down 66,000 tons to 1.415 million tons [2] - **Exports**: Global exports are down 81,000 tons, with Brazil's exports down 21,000 tons, the US's down 22,000 tons, Australia's down 22,000 tons, and Turkey's up 43,000 tons [2] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks are up 115,000 tons month - on - month, with China's up 98,000 tons, the US's up 22,000 tons, Australia's up 21,000 tons, and Brazil's up 22,000 tons [2] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Summary - **Production**: From 2020/21 to 2024/25 (April), the total global cotton production has changed from 24.735 million tons to 26.321 million tons, with a decrease of 15,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - **Consumption**: The total global cotton consumption has changed from 27.114 million tons to 25.261 million tons, with a decrease of 114,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - **Imports**: The total global cotton imports have changed from 10.577 million tons to 9.223 million tons, with a decrease of 71,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - **Exports**: The total global cotton exports have changed from 10.576 million tons to 9.217 million tons, with a decrease of 81,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - **Ending Stocks**: The total global cotton ending stocks have changed from 15.834 million tons to 17.17 million tons, with an increase of 115,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4]