欧佩克+打开石油阀门的惊人举动所带来的财务阵痛，目前看来正在消退，至少现在是这样。 四个月前，当沙特及其合作伙伴同意迅速恢复原油生产时，其后果似乎是灾难性的：油价暴跌至四年低 点，随着国家收入的减少，生产商面临着日益扩大的预算赤字。 然而，主要的不确定性在于，这次油价初步的反弹是否能够持久。 早些时候，IG的市场分析师Tony Sycamore说，美国和欧盟之间的协议支持了全球金融市场和油价。 高盛集团和摩根大通的石油预测师普遍预计，今年晚些时候油价将出现暴跌，因为来自欧佩克+的额外 产量将加剧由疲软的中国需求和充裕的美国供应所造成的过剩。这可能再次大幅削减欧佩克+的收入， 甚至迫使该联盟撤回最近的增产决定。 八个关键的欧佩克+国家将在本周末决定9月份的另一次大幅增产，荷兰国际集团预计，欧佩克+至少将 在9月底之前完全恢复每天220万桶的额外自愿减产，比原计划提前一年。 该联盟赚的钱仍比其拧松龙头之前要少，并且在未来几个月可能面临更深的下滑。但就目前而言，沙特 可以感到安慰的是，推行如此大胆战略所带来的打击并没有更糟。 （文章来源：金十数据） 但随后的几个月带来了一些慰藉，期间欧佩克+宣布了进一步的供应增加。 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to market expectations of increased Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of U.S. sanctions [1] - As of the close on July 25, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.87 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.32% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery decreased by $0.74 to $68.44 per barrel, a decline of 1.07% [1] Group 2 - U.S. policy changes may allow Venezuelan oil exports to increase by over 200,000 barrels per day, which is expected to be welcomed by U.S. refining companies [1] - Chevron and other partners of the Venezuelan National Oil Company are permitted to resume limited oil extraction in Venezuela, facilitating payments to contractors and importing essential goods [1] - The delay in oil deliveries from Russian Black Sea terminals and Turkish Mediterranean ports may push Brent crude oil prices back towards the $70 per barrel level [2] Group 3 - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased by 7 to 415, representing a year-on-year decline of 67 rigs [2] - In Canada, the number of active oil rigs increased by 8 to 128, although this reflects a year-on-year decrease of 16 rigs [2]

Group 1 - The new round of fuel price adjustment will take effect from July 15, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively [1] - The average price reduction for 92 octane gasoline is 0.10 yuan per liter, while 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will see reductions of 0.11 yuan per liter [4] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92 octane gasoline will save consumers 5 yuan [5] Group 2 - International oil prices have been fluctuating, with Brent crude futures trading between 67 and 71 dollars per barrel during the adjustment period [5] - Factors influencing oil price fluctuations include concerns over oversupply, geopolitical risks, and changes in international trade [5] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, which is three times the growth rate of demand [5][7] Group 3 - The demand for oil remains high due to the summer travel peak in the Northern Hemisphere, while major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [7] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff negotiations, sanctions against Russia, and the status of ceasefire agreements in the Middle East contribute to the expected volatility in international oil prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices are set to experience their first reduction of the year, marking the end of a series of price increases, with gasoline and diesel expected to decrease by approximately 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter [1][2][4] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The new pricing window opens on July 15, with a projected reduction of around 130 yuan per ton, translating to savings of about 5 to 6 yuan for a full 50-liter tank [1] - The reduction is attributed to a decline in international crude oil prices and rising expectations of a global economic slowdown, with the current crude oil change rate at -3.31% [1][4] - In some regions, the price of 95-octane gasoline may return to the "7 yuan era," alleviating the situation where prices exceeded 8 yuan per liter [2][4] Group 2: Market Sensitivity and Future Outlook - The volatility in international oil prices has led to fluctuating expectations for price adjustments, with recent increases causing the anticipated reduction to drop from 145 yuan per ton to around 120 yuan per ton [1] - Factors such as geopolitical conflicts, OPEC production cuts, the recovery of U.S. shale oil supply, and summer driving demand will continue to influence international oil prices [1][4] - Consumers and businesses are advised to monitor oil price changes closely and adjust their fuel strategies accordingly to manage costs effectively [4]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production in August by 548,000 barrels per day [1][16] - Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel [2][19] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In June 2025, the average price of Brent crude futures was $69.9 per barrel, an increase of $5.9 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI averaged $67.6 per barrel, up $6.3 per barrel [1][14] - The highest prices reached were $79 for Brent and $78 for WTI during mid-June due to geopolitical events and declining U.S. oil inventories [1][14] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced an acceleration of production in August by 548,000 barrels per day, with plans to complete this increase by September 2025 [16][20] - The report notes that OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts until March 2026, with a gradual restoration of production starting in April 2025 [20][21] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 720,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and 740,000 to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026 [2][17] - The expected demand for 2025 is projected at 105 million barrels per day according to OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy, all rated as "Outperform" [3][5]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US indices rising: Dow Jones +2.3%, S&P 500 +1.7%, and Nasdaq +1.6%[2] - European indices had varied results, with the UK FTSE 100 and France's CAC40 rising, while Germany's DAX index slightly declined[2] Economic Indicators - US manufacturing remains weak, with June PMI at 49, indicating contraction for four consecutive months[2] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was 50.8, slightly above expectations, indicating slow expansion in the service sector[2] Legislative Developments - The OBBBA Act passed with a vote of 218:214, raising concerns about a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit from 2026 to 2035[2] - The act aims to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent while tightening social welfare eligibility and eliminating certain subsidies[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data reduced the likelihood of a July interest rate cut from 23.8% to 6.7%[2] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from three to two for the year, with inflation data becoming increasingly critical[2] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day, which could impact oil prices and inflation[2] - Oil price fluctuations are expected to play a significant role in shaping inflation trends and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations[2] Investment Strategy - With US stocks reaching new highs, potential risks include tariff negotiations and oil price volatility, which could lead to significant market corrections[2] - Continued upward movement in US stocks requires favorable outcomes from trade negotiations and declining oil prices[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[2]

Aviation Industry - The airline sector is expected to see a rise in ticket prices and profitability due to limited capacity for summer flights and strong demand for family travel [1] - In May, domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices turned positive for the first time, with June showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - The airline industry is entering a low supply growth phase, with demand performing better than market concerns since April, leading to a positive supply-demand outlook for the next two years [1] Oil Shipping Industry - The oil shipping sector is experiencing a decline in freight rates due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TCE rates dropping from $76,000 to $34,000 [2] - The estimated average VLCC TCE for oil shipping companies in Q2 2025 is projected to be $42,000, slightly lower than the $44,000 in the same period of 2024, indicating improved year-on-year performance [2] - The oil shipping supply-demand balance is expected to remain favorable over the next two years, supported by potential oil price declines [2] Market Highlights - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, remains stable despite recent geopolitical tensions, with a low probability of disruption [3] - The Strait accounts for nearly 30% of global oil maritime trade, with over 80% of Middle Eastern crude oil exports passing through it [3] - Recent conflicts between Iran and Israel led to a slight decrease in oil passage volume, but overall traffic remained stable [3]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see optimistic supply and demand during the summer travel season, with strict limitations on additional flights leading to potential increases in ticket prices and profitability [1][3] - In May, domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices turned positive for the first time, indicating industry-wide profitability, with June continuing a slight year-on-year increase in ticket prices [1][3] - The growth of the fleet is expected to be modest in the first half of 2025, with limited room for improvement in aircraft turnover during the summer travel season, leading to minimal growth in domestic transportation volume [1][3] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - The oil shipping industry has seen a significant drop in freight rates due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TCE rates falling from $76,000 to $34,000 [2] - The estimated average VLCC TCE for oil shipping companies in Q2 2025 is projected to be $42,000, slightly lower than the $44,000 in the same period of 2024, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2] - The oil shipping supply and demand outlook remains positive for the next two years, supported by dividend yields that provide a valuation floor and an attractive risk-reward ratio [2][3] Group 3: Market Insights - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transportation, has maintained stable passage despite recent conflicts, with a slight decrease in oil passage volume observed during heightened tensions [3] - The region is crucial for oil exports, with over 80% of Middle Eastern crude oil exports and more than 50% of Asian crude oil imports passing through the Strait [3] - The industry maintains a positive outlook on both aviation and oil shipping sectors, emphasizing the importance of long-term strategies and the potential for recovery in profitability [3]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Iran and Israel both announced the end of the war, causing oil prices to continue falling [6] - In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned production increase. Trump has expressed concerns about high oil prices, so there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production [6] - In the June report, due to the suspension of the China-US tariff conflict, the expectation for crude oil demand has improved. However, as there is also an expected increase in supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment to the balance sheet is limited, and the market will maintain a stockpiling pattern in the second half of the year [6] - Short-term geopolitical situations may still change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. Supported by the peak demand season, oil prices will be relatively strong in the third quarter. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in operations. In the fourth quarter, the cost line of shale oil may be tested again [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $67.74, closing at $65.01, with a high of $67.83, a low of $64.00, a decline of 5.11%, and a trading volume of 512,300 lots. Brent's opening price was $68.12, closing at $66.84, with a high of $69.37, a low of $65.93, a decline of 5.22%, and a trading volume of 645,800 lots. SC's opening price was 513 yuan/barrel, closing at 508.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.13%, and a trading volume of 304,000 lots [6][8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider reverse spreads in the third quarter and expect the fourth quarter to test the shale oil cost line [6] 2. Industry News - Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May [8] - Trump stated that if Iran rebuilds its nuclear facilities, the US will take action again and that the cease - fire between Iran and Israel is progressing smoothly [8] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][18][23]

Core Viewpoint - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could lead to significant disruptions in global oil supply, causing oil prices to surge and impacting economies worldwide [2][4][5]. Geopolitical Impact - The attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has heightened tensions in the Middle East, with global attention on Iran's possible retaliation against U.S. military bases [2]. - Iran's parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for one-third of the world's oil shipments, which could severely disrupt the global oil supply chain [2]. Economic Consequences - If the Strait is closed, oil prices could rise to $130 per barrel, significantly impacting countries like China, which imports 553 million tons of crude oil annually, costing approximately 2.3 trillion yuan (about $325.2 billion) [5][6]. - The potential increase in oil prices would lead to higher domestic prices in the U.S., putting pressure on the economy and possibly affecting government policies [5]. Affected Countries - Israel is expected to be minimally affected due to its reliance on non-maritime oil supplies and strong economic resilience [4]. - China, Japan, South Korea, and India are among the countries that would face significant economic losses and supply chain disruptions if the Strait is closed [8]. - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE would oppose the closure, as it would hinder their ability to profit from oil sales despite potential price increases [8][10]. Strategic Considerations - Iran's decision to close the Strait may backfire, as it heavily relies on oil exports for revenue, and such a move could lead to military intervention by the U.S. to reopen the Strait [10][12]. - The analysis suggests that the closure of the Strait would be detrimental to nearly all countries involved, both oil producers and consumers, with China being particularly vulnerable due to its dependence on maritime oil transport [10][12].