Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the slurry oil market is attributed to weak supply and demand dynamics, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] Price Trends - Low-sulfur slurry oil in Shandong is priced at 4070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous Tuesday - Medium-sulfur slurry oil is priced at 3890 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous Tuesday [1] Market Influences - International oil prices have fluctuated, initially rising and then falling, which has weakened cost support for slurry oil - The supply of slurry oil remains ample, with downstream coking units primarily purchasing based on essential needs, indicating weak demand [1] Future Outlook - According to Zhaochuang Information, Saudi Arabia may continue to increase production, further suppressing oil prices and reducing cost support - Downstream diesel prices are also expected to decline, making it unlikely for slurry oil demand to improve significantly, leading to a continued weak price trend [1]

Core Points - The oil price is set to decrease again tonight, marking the fourth consecutive drop this year, with an estimated savings of 12 yuan for a full 50-liter tank, equivalent to the cost of a cup of milk tea [2] - Despite the drop in domestic oil prices, international oil prices have started to rebound, indicating that this may be the last opportunity for consumers to benefit from lower prices this year [2][4] - The average price of 92-octane gasoline in China is currently 7.06 yuan per liter, with significant regional price disparities, such as 8.17 yuan in Hainan and 6.96 yuan in Ningxia, leading to a 60 yuan difference for a full tank [2][4] Price Fluctuations - The recent price adjustment is influenced by volatile international oil prices, with WTI crude oil dropping to a five-month low of 57.52 USD per barrel before rebounding to 61.79 USD, resulting in a reduction of the price drop from 345 yuan per ton to 290 yuan per ton [4] - The cumulative decrease from the four consecutive drops amounts to 0.52 yuan per liter, allowing consumers to save 26 yuan for a full tank compared to two months ago [4] - There are indications that the next price adjustment could see an increase of 200 yuan per ton, suggesting that oil companies may aim to recover losses in November [4][6] Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to international factors such as Saudi production cuts, U.S. strategic reserves, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which ultimately affect consumer fuel costs [6] - Consumers are encouraged to take advantage of the current lower prices, but there is a sense of caution regarding potential future price increases, leading to speculation about whether the current price drop is a genuine benefit or a precursor to higher prices [6]

据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（10月13日至10月24日）国际油价大幅波动，呈先降后升走势。 调价周期内，国际油价平均水平较上一轮调价周期大幅下降。期初，受以色列和巴勒斯坦达成停火协议、胡塞武装与美国达成红 海休战协议影响，中东地缘政治紧张局势趋缓，油市风险溢价有所削减。与此同时，全球经贸环境不确定性上升，加之"欧佩克 +"持续增产，使得国际油价进一步走低。以伦敦布伦特原油期货价格为例，最低降至每桶61美元左右，为近半年来低位。后期， 美国加大对俄罗斯两大石油公司制裁，市场认为这将影响印度从俄罗斯原油进口。同时，俄乌冲突持续，美俄原定将举行的峰会 推迟。受此影响，国际油价快速回升，目前伦敦布伦特油价在每桶65美元左右波动。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心供图 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 于祥明）成品油价年内第九次下调。记者10月27日从国家发展改革委获悉，按照现行成品油价格机 制，自10月27日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别降低265元和255元。此次调价后，油箱容量为50升的家用轿车加满一箱92号 汽油可节省10.5元。至此，今年国内油价已经历21轮调整，分别为"6涨9降6搁浅"。 ...

央视财经（记者 平凡 张娅芳）记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，受国际油价下跌影响，国内汽柴油价格将于10月27日24时下调。据国家发展改革委价格 监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（10月13日—10月24日）国际油价大幅波动，呈先降后升走势。 总体将维持宽幅震荡走势 调价周期内，国际油价大幅波动，呈先降后升走势，平均水平较上一轮调价周期大幅下降。前期，受以色列和巴勒斯坦达成停火协议、胡塞武装与美国达成 红海休战协议影响，中东地缘政治紧张局势趋缓，油市风险溢价有所削减。与此同时，全球经贸环境不确定性上升，加之"欧佩克+"持续增产，使得国际油 价进一步走低。以伦敦布伦特原油期货价格为例，最低降至每桶61美元左右，为近半年来低位。后期，美国加大对俄罗斯两大石油公司制裁，市场认为这将 影响印度从俄罗斯原油进口。同时，俄乌冲突持续，美俄原定将举行的峰会推迟。受此影响，国际油价快速回升，目前伦敦布伦特油价在每桶65美元左右波 动。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心认为，当前巴以、俄乌局势不稳定性较大，欧美对部分产油国制裁政策延续，这将对短期油价提供支撑并加大波动幅度。但全 球原油市场处于供应过剩格局较难改变，国际能源署最新《 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Weekly Report: US Sanctions Two Russian Oil Companies, International Oil Prices Rise [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian, Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, Brent/WTI crude oil futures had weekly average prices of $63.4/$59.3 per barrel, up $1.4/$1.0 per barrel from last week. Various data on US crude oil and refined oil, including inventory, production, demand, and import/export, showed different changes [2]. - Recommended related listed companies include CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, etc.; companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service, CNPC Engineering, etc. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Performance**: The stock prices of companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec showed different percentage changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year, and year - to - date periods. Their valuations, including total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB, also varied [9]. - **Crude Oil Price**: Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oil had different weekly average prices and percentage changes. The LME copper spot price and the US dollar index also had corresponding fluctuations [9]. - **Inventory**: US crude oil total inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory had different inventory levels and changes [9]. - **Production**: US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets had corresponding changes [9]. - **Refinery**: US refinery crude oil processing volume and operating rate, as well as the operating rates of Chinese local and major refineries, showed different changes [9]. - **Import/Export**: US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes had corresponding changes [9]. 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: The report presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, but specific data is not detailed here [12]. - **Sector Listed Company Performance** - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The weekly average prices and spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in China, the US, Europe, and Singapore showed different changes [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore had different inventory levels and changes [22]. - **Production**: The production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US had corresponding changes [22]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US had corresponding changes [22]. - **Import/Export**: The import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US had corresponding changes [22]. - **Oil Service Sector**: The daily rates of offshore jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms had different changes [22]. 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzes the prices and spreads of various crude oils, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [28][35]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Discusses the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, as well as the inventory levels and changes of US total crude oil, commercial crude oil, strategic crude oil, and Cushing crude oil [41][54]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices [57][61]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, operating rate, and the operating rates of Shandong and Chinese major refineries [65][69]. - **Crude Oil Import/Export**: Analyzes US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes [75]. 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Refined Oil Price**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel retail prices, as well as the prices and spreads of crude oil and refined oil in different regions [80][107]. - **Refined Oil Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory levels and changes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore [121][133]. - **Refined Oil Supply**: Analyzes the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [140]. - **Refined Oil Demand**: Analyzes the consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and the number of US airport passenger security checks [143]. - **Refined Oil Import/Export**: Analyzes the import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [150][153]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the oil service sector [165][169].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857), setting a target price of HKD 8.6 for H-shares and RMB 11.8 for A-shares [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Liao Yang Petrochemical's capacity accounts for 4% of China Petroleum's refining capacity, and sanctions may lead to disruptions in crude oil supply transactions [1] - The company can pivot to non-Western supply chains for crude oil procurement and increase imports of Russian crude oil to mitigate some impacts [1] - China Petroleum Hong Kong serves as a trading window for importing Russian crude oil, and sanctions may complicate transactions reliant on EU and financial intermediaries [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil imports remains unclear, but the company can maintain refining output by sourcing different grades of crude oil [1] - Assuming adjustments in crude oil procurement can alleviate production disruption, oil prices will continue to be a major factor affecting the group [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that for every $10 change in Brent crude oil prices, China Petroleum's EBITDA will change by 13% under unchanged conditions [1] - If disruptions in Russian oil supply worsen, short-term oil prices may rise to the $70 range [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857) with a target price of HKD 8.6 for H-shares and CNY 11.8 for A-shares, highlighting potential impacts from sanctions on oil supply chains and production interruptions [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Liao Yang Petrochemical accounts for 4% of China Petroleum's refining capacity, and sanctions may lead to the cancellation of oil supply transactions by suppliers and shipping companies, potentially causing production disruptions [1] - The company can pivot to non-Western supply chains for crude oil procurement and increase imports of Russian crude oil to mitigate some of the impacts from sanctions [1] - China Petroleum Hong Kong serves as a trading window for importing Russian crude oil, and sanctions may complicate transactions reliant on EU and financial intermediaries, but the company can maintain refining output by sourcing different grades of crude oil [1] Group 2: Market Impact - Oil prices will continue to be a major factor affecting the group, with an estimated EBITDA change of 13% for every USD 10 fluctuation in Brent crude oil prices, assuming other conditions remain constant [1] - In the event of intensified disruptions to Russian oil supply, short-term oil prices may rise to the USD 70 range [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, with weak price drivers. It may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. Strategy: BZ2603 should follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices [1]. - The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drivers are weak. EB12 price rebounds should be treated with a short - selling approach [1]. LLDPE and PP - The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US frictions and US sanctions on refineries [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may be strong in the short - term but has limited rebound space. PTA is boosted in the short - term but also has limited rebound space. Ethylene glycol has a weak long - term supply - demand structure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip also have limited rebound space [5]. Methanol - The price of methanol may continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the overseas plant operation stability, sanctions on ship clearance efficiency, and the port de - stocking rhythm [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - In the short - term, the price of caustic soda is weak, and it can be short - sold. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summaries by Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4% from the previous day. WTI crude oil (December) was $61.79/barrel, up 5.6% [1]. - CFR China Naphtha was $682/ton, up 1.5%. Pure benzene - naphtha was -$119/ton, down 8.8% [1]. Related Prices and Spreads of Styrene - On October 23, styrene in East China spot was 6550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. EB futures 2512 was 6566 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [1]. Downstream Cash Flows - On October 23, phenol cash flow was - 390 yuan/ton, down 15.7% from the previous day. Aniline cash flow was 1021 yuan/ton, down 6.4% [1]. Inventory - As of October 20, pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.00 million tons, up 10.0% from October 13. Styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 20.25 million tons, up 3.1% [1]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - From October 9 to October 16, the Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.2%, down 0.9%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate was 75.5%, down 3.8% [1]. LLDPE and PP Futures and Spot Prices - On October 23, L2601 closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [3]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the PE device operating rate was 81.5%, down 0.37%. The PP device operating rate was 75.9%, down 2.9% [3]. Inventory - As of the latest data, PE enterprise inventory was 51.5 million tons, down 2.81%. PP enterprise inventory was 63.9 million tons, down 5.92% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4%. CFR China PX was $812/ton, up 1.8% [5]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On October 23, POY150/48 price was 6360 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. POY150/48 cash flow was - 2 yuan/ton, down 89 [5]. Operating Rates - From the previous week to the current week, the Asian PX operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.9%. The PTA operating rate was 76.7%, up 3.1% [5]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On October 23, MA2601 closed at 2292 yuan/ton, up 1.37%. The Taicang basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 61.82% [6]. Inventory - As of the latest data, methanol enterprise inventory was 36.036%, up 0.13%. Methanol port inventory was 151.2 million tons, up 1.40% [6]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 75.85%, down 0.91%. The downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 78.1%, down 9.48% [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On October 22, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 was 4719 yuan/ton, up 0.4% [8]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - As of October 16, FOB East China port caustic soda was $380/ton, down 5.0%. The PVC export profit was 19 yuan/ton, down 81.5% [8]. Supply (Operating Rates and Profits) - From October 10 to October 17, the caustic soda industry operating rate was 85.5%, down 3.9%. The PVC total operating rate was 75.1%, down 7.0% [8]. Demand (Downstream Operating Rates) - From October 10 to October 17, the alumina industry operating rate was not available, and the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 88.6%, down 1.1% [8]. Inventory - As of October 16, the liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.5 million tons, down 1.1%. The PVC total social inventory was 55.6 million tons, down 0.1% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - Crude oil prices continued to rebound under the stimulus of news such as increased US sanctions on Russia, driving up the energy sector including PG. However, the fundamentals of the LPG market remained largely unchanged, with a loose supply - demand pattern. The industry was waiting for the results of China - US trade negotiations. Although the PG futures followed the crude oil rebound, the spot market reaction was relatively flat. Given the current window period of undecided major macro - events and frequent news disturbances, caution was advised [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On October 23, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4360 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3830 - 4010 yuan/ton; North China market, 4100 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4370 - 4630 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 548 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 553 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4278 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) and 4317 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 542 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 547 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4232 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) and 4271 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Spot prices: North China and Shandong civil LPG prices rose yesterday. East China civil LPG and ether - after carbon four mainstream transaction prices remained stable, with a stable market atmosphere and downstream procurement on demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in oil prices reflect underlying economic signals, with significant price drops indicating potential demand issues and economic concerns [3][4]. Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have experienced volatility since the beginning of the year, with notable fluctuations in April, May, June, and a significant drop in October, culminating in a historic "six consecutive declines" [3]. - As of October 22, 2025, domestic oil prices saw a decrease of nearly 350 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, with further expected reductions of approximately 340 yuan per ton due to international price trends [3][4]. International Oil Prices - WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $56.73 per barrel, while Brent crude is at $60.83, nearing the year's lowest points [4]. - Analysts suggest that a rebound above $58 could lead to prices reaching $60 or even $63, but current global economic recovery is slow, and oil demand remains weak [4]. Domestic Oil Pricing - The national average price for 92-octane gasoline is around 7.05 yuan per liter, with regional variations, such as higher prices in Yunnan and Guizhou at 7.20 yuan per liter [5]. - The price for 95-octane gasoline averages 7.55 yuan per liter, with significant price differences across regions, indicating a "high-octane premium" that affects consumer spending [5]. Economic Implications - While falling oil prices may benefit consumers in the short term, they often signal insufficient market demand and potential economic recession risks [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a possible rebound in oil prices, but the unpredictable nature of the market complicates accurate future predictions [5].