Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel this week, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively compared to last week[2] - U.S. total crude oil inventory stands at 84 million barrels, with commercial and strategic inventories at 42 million barrels each, reflecting changes of -324, -346, and +21 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480 thousand barrels per day from the previous week[2] Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180 thousand barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 90.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points[2] - U.S. crude oil imports increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 620 thousand barrels, while exports decreased by 54 thousand barrels to 405 thousand barrels, resulting in a net import increase of 110 thousand barrels per day[2] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 1 to 412, while active fracturing fleets decreased by 3 to 148[2] Refined Products - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices averaged $80, $101, and $89 per barrel respectively, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 per barrel[2] - U.S. gasoline inventory increased by 690 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel inventories decreased by 555 and 66 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. gasoline consumption decreased by 60 thousand barrels per day to 815 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 24 and 29 thousand barrels per day respectively[2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC Services[3] - Risks include geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, significant macroeconomic downturns, and potential changes in OPEC+ supply plans[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [173]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. crude oil production, with a current output of 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day from the previous period [2]. - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is reported at $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, respectively, with Brent experiencing a decrease of $0.9 and WTI an increase of $0.1 compared to the previous week [2]. - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with total inventories at 84.51 million barrels, down by 3.24 million barrels [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could impact oil supply dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices: Brent and WTI averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively [2]. - Crude oil inventories: Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 84.51 million barrels, with commercial inventories at 42.03 million barrels, showing a decrease of 3.24 million barrels [2]. - Crude oil production: U.S. production stands at 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil demand: U.S. refinery crude processing is at 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil imports and exports: U.S. imports are 6.20 million barrels per day, exports at 4.05 million barrels per day, resulting in a net import of 2.15 million barrels per day [2]. 2. U.S. Refined Oil Products - Refined oil prices: Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $80, $101, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 respectively [2]. - Refined oil inventories: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 26 million barrels, 13 million barrels, and 4 million barrels, with changes of +690, -555, and -66 thousand barrels respectively [2]. - Refined oil production: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production are 9.01 million, 4.81 million, and 1.71 million barrels per day, with changes of -570, -10, and -40 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. - Refined oil demand: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption are 8.15 million, 4.31 million, and 1.66 million barrels per day, with changes of -600, +240, and +290 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. 3. Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation and China Oilfield Services Limited [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short-term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish trend with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and other regions has a significant impact on the energy market, causing fluctuations in oil prices and affecting the supply and demand patterns of various energy products [3][4][5] - The global oil market is facing inventory accumulation pressure, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply under the influence of multiple factors [3] - Different energy products have different market trends. High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong, low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and asphalt prices are expected to continue to rise [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, the crude oil market was affected by the alternating tension and relaxation of the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and the oil price maintained a volatile trend. The main contract of SC crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.6% (-2.9 yuan/barrel) compared with last Friday's closing price [3] - The near-month contract premium has dropped more significantly than the far-month contract. The market's concern about a direct military conflict in the Middle East and the resulting interruption of crude oil supply has temporarily eased [3] - Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on crude oil prices. The global oil market still has significant inventory accumulation pressure, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply [3] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - For high-sulfur fuel oil, geopolitics is the current main contradiction. Due to the high uncertainty of future geopolitical evolution and the structural irreplaceability of high-sulfur resources in the Middle East for the Asian market, the price of high-sulfur fuel oil continues to be supported [4] - The spot price difference remains strong, indicating a tight supply-demand pattern in the market. This is mainly due to the seasonal demand for marine fuel, the replacement procurement of Venezuelan raw materials by domestic refineries, and the decrease in Middle East arrivals [4] - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue its strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil is under greater pressure. On the one hand, there are continuous problems with overseas refinery equipment; on the other hand, arbitrage cargoes from the West are expected to arrive one after another, bringing marginal supply increments [4] - With the arrival of the shipping off-season around the Spring Festival, the demand support is expected to weaken, and the low-sulfur fuel oil market is under overall pressure [4] Asphalt - Some local refineries in Shandong have stopped production, and the main refineries in the southern region maintain intermittent production. The production schedule in February has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the supply pressure is limited [5] - As of the end of January, the cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample enterprises was 4.9%, which was the first time the cumulative year-on-year change turned positive since the beginning of the year, indicating an improvement in consumption performance year-on-year [5] - A domestic chemical company bid for Canadian Cold Lake crude oil as a substitute for Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel compared with Brent crude oil. It is expected that refineries will face an increase in the cost of substitute raw materials after the second quarter, and the futures contracts for relevant months have relatively high increases [5] - The asphalt price continues to show a strong trend, and the cracking spread is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价下挫，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.85 美元至 63.29 美 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.84%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 1.91 美元至 67.55 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.75%。SC2603 以 460.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 3.4 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅 0.73%。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐正率领一支代表团前往阿 | | | | 曼首都马斯喀特，与美国进行核问题谈判。此次外交接触旨在就 | | | | 核问题达成一项公正、双方可接受且有尊严的协议。市场关注周 | | | | 五美伊谈判的进展。航运计划显示，约 200 万桶委内瑞拉重质原 | | | 原油 | 油正被运往西班牙石油生产商雷普索尔公司 Repsol 旗下的炼油 | 震荡 | | | 厂。这批原油系雷普索尔与贸易商托克集团此前协商采购，由此 | | | | 可验证委内瑞拉原油正在改变去向。现货方面，沙特阿 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department issued a security warning on February 5, urging American citizens to leave Iran due to ongoing tensions and to prepare for self-reliant exit plans [1] - China Galaxy Securities forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will range between $60-70 per barrel by February 2026, with short-term price volatility expected due to regional uncertainties [1] - As of February 6, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) increased by 0.51%, with notable gains from stocks such as Potential Energy (up 6.68%) and Intercontinental Oil and Gas (up 5.20%) [1] Group 2 - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and China Petroleum & Chemical, collectively accounting for 66.76% of the index [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices fell on Thursday due to the agreement between the US and Iran to hold talks in Oman, alleviating concerns about potential military conflict disrupting oil supply in the Middle East [1][3] - Brent crude futures for March delivery decreased by $1.91, a drop of 2.75%, closing at $67.55 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by $1.85, a decline of 2.84%, settling at $63.29 per barrel [4] - The market experienced volatility as initial reports suggested the talks might collapse, leading to a temporary spike in oil prices, but later confirmations of the talks eased market tensions [4][1] Group 2 - The upcoming talks are expected to address Iran's nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, while the US aims to include discussions on Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for armed groups in the Middle East [4][1] - Concerns remain regarding potential military actions by US President Donald Trump against Iran, which could lead to broader conflicts in the oil-rich region [4][1] - Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting not only Iran but also other Gulf oil producers like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq [5][2] Group 3 - Despite the planned talks reducing the risk premium in oil prices, the market was still supported by a decline in US oil inventories, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration [5][2] - The report indicated that due to winter storms affecting large areas of the US, crude oil and distillate inventories decreased, while gasoline inventories increased [5][2]

智通财经APP获悉，全球能源巨头壳牌公司(SHEL.US)发布了其2025年第四季度及全年业绩报告。报告数据显示，壳牌第四季度调整后利润达32.6亿美元， 较上一年同期下降了11%。这一数字不仅低于市场此前普遍预期的35.3亿美元，更是创下了自2021年第一季度以来的单季利润最低纪录。原油价格走低、石 油交易表现欠佳以及化工业务陷入困境，这些因素共同对壳牌的盈利状况造成了打压。在营收方面，壳牌Q4总营收为640.93亿美元，与2024年同期的662.81 亿美元相比，小幅下滑了约3.3%。剔除一次性项目影响后，其调整后每股收益为0.57美元，略低于2024年同期的0.60美元，且未达到分析师此前预期的0.69 美元至1.29美元区间。 从全年维度来看，公司2025年实现调整后利润185.3亿美元，较2024年的237.2亿美元显著下滑约22%。即便盈利水平出现明显回撤，壳牌在股东回报方面依 然采取了相对激进的策略。公司宣布将第四季度股息上调4%至每股0.372美元，并同步开启一轮总额达35亿美元的股票回购计划，预计该计划将在下一次季 度业绩公布前完成。 该公司首席执行官瓦尔·萨万表示，公司自2022年底以来已 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 申银万国报告指出，春节前后油价将呈现 "地缘主导、基本面托底" 的特征。这意味着，短期内的地缘 政治新闻，都可能引发油价的剧烈波动。市场交易的核心并非当下的原油库存或需求数据，而是对未来 潜在供应中断概率的定价。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数聚焦于石油和天然气勘探、开采、加工 及销售等相关业务，其成分覆盖产业链上下游企业，以反映油气行业上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 具备显著的周期性特征，其走势受国际油价波动影响较大。 2月5日，石油板块迎回调，石油ETF（561360）收跌超2%，地缘冲突催化，回调或可布局。 当前油价已高度蕴含冲突预期，走势主要由地缘消息牵引，随地缘风险升温，油价也有望震荡上行。 ...

本次上调落实后， 消费者用油成本有所上涨，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油将比之前多花8 元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口也就是2月24日24点之 前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例， 在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 后期来看，根据卓创资讯预计，继续关注美伊和谈情况，油价有望呈现窄幅波动行情，但是考虑到基本 面偏弱，供需过剩和库存压力较大，预计原油价格偏弱运行，下轮存在下跌可能。按照当前原油价格测 算，重新计算后的变化率或处负值范围，预计首日下调50元/吨左右。 金联创成品油分析师王延婷认为，随着春运启动，私家车出行增加，汽油需求逐步向好，加之部分用户 节前仍有备货需求，汽油需求相对坚挺。而随着户外基建项目陆续停工放假，下游开工进一步降低，柴 油需求延续平淡。另外，进入2月份，主营及地方炼厂方面检修厂家减少，整体开工负荷上涨，且主营 炼厂成品油收率明显增加，国内资源供应量相对宽裕。需求提升有限，而资源供应量增加影响下，各单 位出货压力较大，仍积极走量为主。由此来看，短期内，国 ...

记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到， 2月3日24时国内成品油调价窗口将再度开启。 受国际油 价上涨影响，国内汽、柴油价格将再度上调，这也是2026年成品油价格的第二次上调。汽、柴 油零售限价每吨分别上调205元、195元，升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别上调0.16元、 0.17元、0.17元。 本计价周期以来（2026年1月20日24时-2026年2月3日24时），国际原油价格整体以上涨为 主，主要原因是中东紧张局势升级，市场担忧石油供应终端，同时美国极寒天气扰动，原油产 量损失量较大，同时恢复时间较长，叠加哈萨克斯坦油田恢复也较市场预期更晚，阶段性的供 应端出现紧张情况。虽第十个工作日随着美国和中东某国紧张局势缓解，欧美原油期货从数月 来高点下跌，但未能改变原油均价重心上移的趋势。 本次上调落实后， 消费者用油成本有所上涨， 油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油将比 之前多花8元左右。 以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口 也就是2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公 里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单 ...