Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the industrial metals sector has shown a strong performance due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a significant recovery in market sentiment [1][27]. - Despite the recent drop in precious metal prices, the report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing ongoing risks related to U.S. dollar credit and the potential impact of tariffs on the real economy in the coming months [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector increased by 0.61% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [14]. - The industrial metals sub-sector saw a rise of 0.99%, while precious metals declined by 2.96% during the same period [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper are expected to remain strong in the short term due to improved export demand following the easing of trade tensions. As of May 16, LME copper was priced at $9,448 per ton, a slight increase of 0.02% week-on-week [2][33]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing upward price movement, with LME aluminum reaching $2,482 per ton, up 2.65% week-on-week. The report notes a decrease in social inventory, which supports price stability [3][38]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have also increased, with LME zinc at $2,692 per ton, reflecting a 1.43% rise week-on-week. Inventory levels have decreased, indicating a tightening supply [40]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have risen, with LME tin at $32,816 per ton, up 2.92% week-on-week. The market remains stable despite mixed inventory changes [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price of gold has significantly decreased, with COMEX gold closing at $3,205.30 per ounce, down 3.72% week-on-week. The report attributes this decline to reduced market risk aversion following the U.S.-China trade agreement [4][49]. - **Silver**: Silver prices have also seen a decline, with COMEX silver at $32.44 per ounce, down 1.48% week-on-week [51]. Economic Indicators - U.S. economic indicators show resilience, with April CPI growth at 2.3%, below expectations, and retail sales growth at 0.1%, exceeding forecasts. These factors contribute to the overall market sentiment and pricing dynamics in the metals sector [4][49].

截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decrease in risk aversion due to easing trade policies, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of April 25, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,330.2 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.05% after reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce earlier in the week [1] - The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease of 6.02 tons, bringing its total to 946.27 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts fell by 30 kilograms [1] Group 2 - The analysis from Dongwu Securities highlights a recovery in market risk appetite following the easing of trade tensions and a shift in President Trump's stance on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has restored some credibility to the dollar [1] - The article notes that despite the recent pullback in gold prices, the fundamentals supporting the current gold bull market remain intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities after price corrections [1]

正如我们前期所提示，货币宽松的回摆仍在延续。在稳汇率和保资产价格（股&楼） 的双目标下，信贷弱并非央行降息的充分条件。政策更加重视准备金率的下行空间， 降准将标志着新一轮宽松的起点，但在美国经济"衰退交易"的扰动下，特朗普贸 易政策和美联储决策的不确定性依然较高，这使得政策窗口被延后。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-38038433 | | --- | --- | | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu029568@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | | | 汪浩(分析师) | | | 0755-23976659 | | | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 信贷弱并非降息的充分条件 [Table_Authors] 韩朝辉(分析师) ——2025 年 2 月社融数据点评 本报告导读： 通 ...