关税和地缘政治，再次刺激金价大涨！ 6月2日，金价大幅上涨，现货黄金盘中涨超2%并突破3360美元关口。当日，港股黄金概念股也集体走强，潼 关黄金涨超18%，赤峰黄金涨近6%，中国黄金国际涨超4%，老铺黄金涨3.65%。 金价大涨，特朗普发出警告 高位震荡多日后，金价在6月2日大幅拉升。当天，现货黄金盘中涨超2%，价格突破3360美元/盎司；COMEX 黄金期货主力合约则突破3380美元/盎司，盘中涨幅也超过2%，并创下近三周最大单日涨幅。 从消息面来看，北京时间6月2日，美国总统特朗普继续就贸易法庭的关税裁决结果发出"警告"。特朗普在其自 创的社交平台"真相社交"上就法院和关税问题发表评论称，"如果法院以某种方式就关税问题做出对美国不利 的裁决（虽然这不太可能），那就意味着其他国家可以用针对我们的反美关税来要挟我们的国家。这将意味着 美利坚合众国的经济崩溃！" 此前5月28日，美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗 普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。美国联邦巡回上诉法院5月29日批准特朗普政府的请 求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 有外媒指出 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 商品走势分化，化工板块集体拉升 ——中信期货晨报20250530 中信期货研究所 刘道钰 从业资格号F3061482 投资咨询号Z0016422 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3832 8 | 0.73% | -0.35W | 3.14% | -0.67% | -2.25% | | | 上证50期货 | 2673.6 | 0.314 | -0.724 | 2.47% | 0.29% | -0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5668.6 | 1 814 | 1924 | 3 2% | -2 59% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

5月27日，美国欧盟关税谈判缓和和美股大幅反弹影响，避险需求降温，金价延续走低，盘中一度跌至 3283美元，尾盘小幅拉升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌1.27%报3299.70美元/盎司；截至亚市收盘， 黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.83%，近5日高位震荡，获资金净申购9671万元，黄金股ETF(159562)跌 2.04%，近5日获资金净申购5781万元。 数据层面，美国3月FHFA房价指数环比降0.1%，预期升0.1%，前值从升0.1%修正为持平。美国3月 S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数同比升4.1%，预期升4.5%，前值升4.5%。国信期货分析认为，美欧 贸易博弈扰动与美俄制裁升温交织，支撑贵金属避险功能；美国房价走弱强化滞胀交易，佛州立法确认 金银货币地位提振实物需求，但特朗普集团比特币储备计划或阶段性分流资金。 展望后市，黄金或维持震荡格局，若后续通胀数据稳固，美联储宽松节奏放缓或抑制上行空间，但地缘 与政策风险溢价仍支撑金价。 消息面上，特朗普在社交媒体发文称，对欧盟加快贸易谈判进程感到鼓舞。知情人士此前透露，欧盟正 寻求加快与美国的贸易谈判，重点放在关键的行业以及关税和非关税壁垒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the industrial metals sector has shown a strong performance due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a significant recovery in market sentiment [1][27]. - Despite the recent drop in precious metal prices, the report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing ongoing risks related to U.S. dollar credit and the potential impact of tariffs on the real economy in the coming months [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector increased by 0.61% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [14]. - The industrial metals sub-sector saw a rise of 0.99%, while precious metals declined by 2.96% during the same period [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper are expected to remain strong in the short term due to improved export demand following the easing of trade tensions. As of May 16, LME copper was priced at $9,448 per ton, a slight increase of 0.02% week-on-week [2][33]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing upward price movement, with LME aluminum reaching $2,482 per ton, up 2.65% week-on-week. The report notes a decrease in social inventory, which supports price stability [3][38]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have also increased, with LME zinc at $2,692 per ton, reflecting a 1.43% rise week-on-week. Inventory levels have decreased, indicating a tightening supply [40]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have risen, with LME tin at $32,816 per ton, up 2.92% week-on-week. The market remains stable despite mixed inventory changes [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price of gold has significantly decreased, with COMEX gold closing at $3,205.30 per ounce, down 3.72% week-on-week. The report attributes this decline to reduced market risk aversion following the U.S.-China trade agreement [4][49]. - **Silver**: Silver prices have also seen a decline, with COMEX silver at $32.44 per ounce, down 1.48% week-on-week [51]. Economic Indicators - U.S. economic indicators show resilience, with April CPI growth at 2.3%, below expectations, and retail sales growth at 0.1%, exceeding forecasts. These factors contribute to the overall market sentiment and pricing dynamics in the metals sector [4][49].

截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decrease in risk aversion due to easing trade policies, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of April 25, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,330.2 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.05% after reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce earlier in the week [1] - The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease of 6.02 tons, bringing its total to 946.27 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts fell by 30 kilograms [1] Group 2 - The analysis from Dongwu Securities highlights a recovery in market risk appetite following the easing of trade tensions and a shift in President Trump's stance on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has restored some credibility to the dollar [1] - The article notes that despite the recent pullback in gold prices, the fundamentals supporting the current gold bull market remain intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities after price corrections [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious stance on the industry, suggesting that weak credit is not a sufficient condition for interest rate cuts by the central bank [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that monetary easing is ongoing, with a focus on the downward space for the reserve requirement ratio. A reduction in the reserve requirement will mark the beginning of a new round of easing, but the timing may be delayed due to external uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. economy and trade policies [1][26]. - The report highlights that the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.2% in February 2025, with new social financing amounting to 2.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion yuan [5][7]. - It notes that the new credit in February was 1.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion yuan, primarily due to weak corporate loans [10][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In February 2025, the stock growth rate of social financing rose to 8.2% from 8.0%, with new social financing of 2.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 737.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Government bonds increased by 1.69 trillion yuan, with local bonds net financing at 1.27 trillion yuan, over 70% of which was directed towards debt repayment [5][7]. Credit - New credit in February was 1.01 trillion yuan, down 440 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate loans being the main drag. The report indicates that the delayed start of the construction season has led to weak corporate loan demand [10][11]. Monetary Aspects - The M2 growth rate remained at 7.0%, while M1 growth fell to 0.1%. The report attributes the increase in non-bank deposits to the stock market performance, with total deposits growing significantly [19][25]. Ongoing Monetary Easing - The report discusses the continuous reversal of monetary easing, with a focus on the downward space for the reserve requirement ratio. The timing for potential interest rate cuts may be postponed due to external uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. economy [1][26].

投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.13 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 黄汝南(分析师) | | | 010-83939779 | | | huangrunan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | | 021-38038433 | | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 宏 观 研 究 通胀降温或为暂时，仍需警惕"滞胀交易" [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 通胀数据点评 本报告导读： 美国 2 月通胀数据超预期降温，但我们认为关税等效应尚未完全体现，预计二季度 通胀仍有上行风险。当前服务业与就业负反馈、特朗普"放任"与鲍威尔"鹰派"、 股市财富效应冲击三重因素导致"衰退交易"持续，警惕二季度转向 ...