格林大华期货 我们专注期货研究 中东地区情况陡然升级，1月26日，美国总统特朗普声称美国"舰队"正驶向伊朗， 此番言论推动原油价格上涨，进而为用于生产生物燃料的豆油价格提供了额外的支 撑。 1月26日讯，据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚1月1-20日棕榈 油产量预估减少14.43%，其中马来半岛减少14.29%，沙巴减少11.12%，沙捞越减少 23.21%，婆罗洲减少14.6%。 资金快速流入植物油板块。截止收盘棕榈油收盘价9092元/吨，上涨2.04%;豆油收 盘价8226元/吨，上涨1.63%；菜籽油收盘价9345元/吨，上涨3.94%。 研究员:刘锦 13633849418 期货交易咨询号: Z0011862 格林大华期货研究院-证监许可【2011】1288号 免责声明:本内容及数据结果仅供交流参考,不构成任何投资建议,投资者据此操作,风险自担。 0 研究院《市场快讯 --- 中东矛盾上升 植物油板块快速拉升》 2026年01月26日 15:24 星期一 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 | | 8、截止到 环比下降 比下降 | 3.83 万吨， 万吨，环 万吨，环比 | | 2026 年第 3 周末，国内三大食用油库存总量为 210.34 万吨，周度下降 1.79%，同比增加 5.10%。其中豆油库存为 114.04 万吨，周度下降 6.88 5.69%，同比增加 13.38%；食用棕油库存为 65.38 万吨，周度增加 1.64 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 增加 同比下降 | 4.78%， | | 2.57%，同比增加 46.20%；菜油库存为 30.91 万吨，周度增加 1.41 万吨，环比增加 43.64%。 | | | | 元/吨；基差 | 现货方面：截止 | 1 月 23 日，张家港豆油现货均价 8590 元/吨，环比下跌 30 | | | 496 | 元/吨，基 | | 元/吨，环比下跌 40 元/吨；广东棕榈油现货均价 8980 元/吨，环比上涨 130 | | | 差 36 | | | 元/吨，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a recommendation to focus on sectors such as organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming key growth drivers. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is expected to expand rapidly, leading to a temporary oversupply and price decline. However, by 2025, no new capacity is anticipated, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is expected to maintain high growth [5][6] - The PTA/polyester filament industry is approaching a turning point, with capacity expansion cycles nearing their end. The demand side is expected to continue growing, supported by improved external demand due to easing trade tensions [6] - Refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies that will reduce supply while demand remains stable, driven by market expansion in Southeast Asia and the development of heat pumps and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is poised for significant growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products and the potential for bio-based materials to see explosive demand [8] - OLED technology is rapidly penetrating various markets, with government policies supporting the development of new display industries and accelerating the localization of key materials and equipment [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 4th in overall performance for the week of January 19-23, 2026, with a gain of 7.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.45 percentage points [5][20] - The top-performing sub-sectors included textile chemical products (13.10%), nitrogen fertilizers (10.58%), and other chemical raw materials (10.09%) [21] Key Company Dynamics - The top three gaining companies for the week were Jianghua Micro (46.41%), Jiuding New Materials (28.47%), and Hongbaoli (26.73%) [26] - The companies in focus for potential investment include KaiSai Biological, Huaheng Biological, and other leading firms in synthetic biology and electronic chemicals [8][11][32] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to establish a benchmark by 2027 across various sectors [35] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas, maintaining high growth targets while addressing industry concerns [35]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 王法族 Z0019938 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 江苏均价 8550 50 0.58% | 8600 | | 期价 Y2605 8044 40 0.50% | 8084 | | 1.98% | | | 某差 Y2605 506 10 | 516 | | 现货基差报价 -20 - | | | 棕榈油 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 广东24度 8880 90 1.01% | 8970 | | 期价 P2605 8832 112 1.27% | 8944 | | 48 基差 P2605 -22 -45.83% | 26 | | 豆棕现货价差 现货 -330 -40 -12.12% | -370 | | 炼油厂豁免政策,市场对最终出台的法规持谨慎乐观态度,认为这些法规将对生物质 | | | 菜籽油 | | | 1月21日 狱跌 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 江苏三级 9906 60 0.61% 现价 | | | 期价 OIROS 8947 રેર 0. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆市场短期陷入震荡僵局，多空因素交织导致方向性驱动不足。美国国内压榨需求因生物燃 料生产旺盛而保持强劲，成为价格重要底部支撑；然而南美大豆供应竞争压力持续，上周美豆对华出口装 运量环比显著下滑 32%，削弱了需求端的乐观预期。国内上游油厂因压榨量不高且豆粕库存连续下降，油 厂挺价心态坚决；另一方面，下游节前备货以滚动采购为主，追高意愿有限，且部分地区物流受阻影响现 货提货。市场成本有支撑，但供应宽松预期与宏观不确定性形成压制，短期豆类期价维持震荡偏弱运行。 专业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the current spot price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills, but the overall market is expected to remain weakly volatile due to the improved China - Canada trade relations, increased supply expectations from Canada and Australia, and the relatively loose global and Canadian rapeseed supply - demand pattern [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the current price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills and the de - stocking mode, with a high basis. However, the improved China - Canada trade relations and expected increase in future supply from Canada and Australia will bring pressure on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 8947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 636 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract was 5537 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The rapeseed oil 5 - 9 monthly spread was 9 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the rapeseed meal 5 - 9 monthly spread was - 38 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures contracts for rapeseed oil were - 19038 lots, up 1080 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 262810 lots, up 430 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1864, down 71; that of rapeseed meal was 59, down 25 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9886.25 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences and ratios: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 832 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract was 112 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 4.07, down 0.06 [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecast production of rapeseed was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons [2]. - Profits and operations: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 329 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. The East China rapeseed oil inventory was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory was 14.1 million tons, down 1.6 million tons [2]. - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.22%, down 0.85%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.96%, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.35%, down 0.01% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures fell slightly on January 20 due to selling after a recent price rebound. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be high, which restricts international soybean prices. US soybean crushing remains strong to meet bio - fuel demand [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, policy - side disturbances in the oil and fat market are significant, and the overall oils and fats are oscillating. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats is gradually decreasing slightly, but the overall inventory is still sufficient. Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with slow de - stocking and high inventory likely to persist. Indonesia will continue the B40 policy this year, and the potential bullishness from B50 has temporarily disappeared. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and the inventory is not expected to be tight. Rapeseed supply in China is expected to increase, which may lead to a weakening oscillation of rapeseed oil. However, considering the time for rapeseed shipments to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel plan in March, there is some bullish driving force for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the decline space of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [5][31]. Summary by Directory International Market Malaysian Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Production decreased by 5% to 1.83 million tons, and exports increased by 8.5% to 1.32 million tons. The market believes the negative impact has been digested, causing the price to rise. SPPOMA predicts that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of January decreased by 20.49% compared with the same period last month, and ITS predicts that exports increased by 29%. It is expected that the inventory in January will be around 2.92 million tons. Additionally, Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining it at 40%, and will raise the CPO export levy from 10% to 12.5% from March 1 [8]. Indian Oils and Fats - SEA data indicates that India imported 1.38 million tons of edible oil in December, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons. Among them, soybean oil and sunflower oil imports were relatively large at 510,000 and 350,000 tons respectively, an increase of 140,000 and 200,000 tons, while palm oil imports were only 510,000 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. Due to less palm oil imports, the inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. There are rumors of palm oil purchases this week [14]. US Bio - fuel - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 bio - fuel blending ratio quota by early March 2026. The US EPA is considering setting the target at 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, slightly lower than the previous proposal of 5.61 billion gallons. It is expected that the US EPA will abandon the plan to penalize imported renewable fuels and raw materials, which eases the concerns of oil refiners [18]. Domestic Market Palm Oil - As of January 9, 2026 (Week 2), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons, an increase of 0.30%. The import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 100. There are rumors of 4 - 6 near - month shipments this week. In the short term, the palm oil market lacks obvious drivers, and the high - inventory situation is expected to continue with slow de - stocking. It is recommended that short - position holders consider partial profit - taking [21]. Soybean Oil - As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,000 tons, a decrease of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point and is gradually de - stocking, but it will not be overly tight. Considering potential customs policy changes and the de - stocking expectation, the short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [26]. Rapeseed Oil - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory is in a neutral position historically and is continuously decreasing. The spot market trading is light. It is expected that China will reduce the comprehensive tariff rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% by March, and the trade between China and Canada may resume. Although rapeseed supply is expected to increase, the decline space of near - month rapeseed oil contracts is limited due to the time for rapeseed shipments to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel plan in March [29]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, the overall oils and fats market may maintain an oscillating trend, with limited upside and downside. It is recommended to conduct high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [33].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: WTI crude oil futures fell 4.38% to $59.17 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures dropped 4.06% to $63.82 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures declined 0.33% to $4620.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc up 1.14% at $3313.5 per ton, LME lead up 0.87% at $2096.5 per ton, LME copper down 0.30% at $13148.5 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.46% at $3171.5 per ton, LME nickel down 0.56% at $18590.0 per ton, and LME tin down 1.29% at $52775.0 per ton [5]. 2. Important News **Macro News** - US initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November, below all expectations [8]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the central bank should focus on reducing inflation, maintaining the expectation of a possible rate cut later this year [8]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in relending and rediscount rates starting January 19, 2026 [8]. **Energy Futures** - As of January 15, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight cases, down 4.51% week - on - week, falling for three consecutive weeks [10]. - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, up 0.66% from Monday [12]. - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all reached multi - week highs as of January 14 [12]. - Qatar cut the March futures price of Al - Shaheen crude oil to a discount of 33 cents per barrel to Dubai quotes [13]. - US natural gas inventories decreased by 71 billion cubic feet to 3.185 trillion cubic feet in the week ended January 9, up 1.0% year - on - year [13]. **Metal Futures** - In 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached $89 billion, and the total AUM grew to $559 billion, with total holdings hitting a record high of 4025 tons [15]. - Vale Indonesia received approval for its 2026 mining quota and resumed normal operations [15]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit, margin ratio, and daily trading volume limit for tin futures contracts starting January 15 [15]. - Goldman Sachs said if Indonesia tightens its 2026 nickel mining quota to 260 million tons, the average nickel price could be close to $18,000 per ton [17]. **Black Futures** - In early January, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises increased 21.6% week - on - week, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel rose 22.8% [19]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton this week [19]. - As of January 15, the output and factory inventory of rebar decreased, while social inventory increased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand increased [19]. - In early January, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased 6.4% from the previous ten - day period [20]. - CICC believes that the steel industry will still face demand reduction and structural adjustment in 2026, with limited improvement in supply - demand and profitability [20]. **Agricultural Futures** - CONAB forecasts Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to reach 176.1244 million tons, up 2.7% year - on - year [23]. - US 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 2.062 million tons last week, up from 878,000 tons the previous week [24]. - The IGC expects global 2025/26 soybean production to increase by 1 million tons to 427 million tons, with consumption rising by 1 million tons to 432 million tons [24]. - Private exporters reported soybean and corn sales for the 2025/2026 season [24]. - The Trump administration is advancing biofuel policies and may finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March [24]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 increased by 17.53% - 18.64% compared to the same period last month [25]. - US December 2025 soybean crush was 224.991 million bushels, and soybean oil inventory was 1.642 billion pounds [25]. 3. Financial Markets **Financial Sector** - A - shares showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [28]. - Hong Kong stocks declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.28% [28]. - Some brokers reported tight margin trading quotas, and there were large differences in margin trading interest rates among brokers [28]. - On January 15, 21 ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan [29]. - The Huaxia Gold ETF's circulation scale reached 100.762 billion yuan on January 14, becoming the first 100 - billion - level gold ETF in China [29]. - Three companies passed the listing review of the Beijing Stock Exchange in the first half - month of 2026 [29]. **Industrial Sector** - China will expand service - sector opening - up in 2026, including value - added telecommunications, biotechnology, and foreign - owned hospitals [31]. - State Grid will invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, up 40% from the previous period [32]. - In 2025, over 5500 idle land parcels were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a total value exceeding 750 billion yuan [32]. - The 2026 Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in Shenzhen on March 17 - 18 [32]. - Some small and medium - sized banks are offering deposit gifts and slightly raising deposit rates [32]. - Baoneng Group's Chairman Yao Zhenhua accused the Changshu court of illegal actions in a 270 - million - yuan execution case, but the local government denied the accusation [32]. **Overseas Sector** - US President Trump wants a "quick and decisive" military strike against Iran, and the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is being deployed to the Middle East [34]. - Trump has no plan to fire Fed Chair Powell and is considering Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as potential successors [34]. - US initial jobless claims dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November [35]. - Some Fed officials are inclined to maintain interest rates and may consider a mild rate cut later this year [35]. - Japan's opposition parties are considering forming a new party to compete in the upcoming elections [35]. - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% [35]. - The Bank of Japan may re - evaluate its interest - rate hike timing due to exchange - rate factors [36]. - Chinese citizens can enter the Philippines visa - free for up to 14 days starting January 16 [38]. **International Stock Markets** - US stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.25% [39]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.26%, the French CAC40 down 0.21%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.54% [39]. - Asian stocks were mixed, with the South Korean KOSPI up 1.58% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 down 0.42% [39]. - Goldman Sachs' Q4 2025 revenue decreased 3% to $13.5 billion, but its stock - trading revenue set a record [40]. - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2025 revenue was $17.89 billion, up 10.3% year - on - year [41]. - US six major banks paid over $140 billion in dividends and repurchased stocks in 2025, and the trend is expected to continue [41]. **Commodity Markets** - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for tin futures [43]. - There was a reported "silver merchant default case" in Shenzhen's Shuibei market, with an alleged value of 200 million yuan [43]. - Oil prices fell due to expected increased Venezuelan production, easing Middle - East tensions, and rising US crude inventories [43]. - Precious metals prices were affected by Fed officials' hawkish signals and strong US economic data [44]. - Trump's administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals and will seek bilateral negotiations [45]. - The EU will lower the price cap on Russian oil from $47.6 to $44.1 per barrel starting February 1 [47]. **Bond Markets** - China extended tax - exemption policies for foreign institutions investing in domestic bonds until December 31, 2027 [48]. - China's inter - bank bond market rebounded, and Vanke's bonds rose significantly [48]. - As of December 2025, foreign institutions held 3.46 trillion yuan of Chinese inter - bank bonds, accounting for about 2% of the total [49]. - Holders of Vanke's mid - term notes proposed four repayment plans [49]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board [49]. - In November 2025, overseas investors net - bought $85.6 billion of US Treasuries, with China reducing its holdings and Japan increasing [51]. - Goldman Sachs will issue $16 billion of investment - grade bonds [52]. - In 2025, overseas investors net - bought 147.1 trillion won ($100.1 billion) of South Korean bonds, up 96.4% from 2024 [52]. **Foreign Exchange Markets** - China's central bank official said there is no need for China to devalue the yuan for trade advantages, and the yuan is expected to fluctuate [53]. - China's foreign exchange market trading volume reached $42.6 trillion in 2025, and the corporate hedging ratio rose to 30% [53]. - The on - shore yuan rose against the US dollar on Thursday [53]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in New York trading, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [53]. - South Korea established a task force to crack down on illegal foreign - exchange trading [55].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the joint venture Etlas between Cargill and BP aims to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel (RD) from oilseed crops, addressing the growing demand for biofuel raw materials in the coming years [2][3] Group 1: Joint Venture Details - Cargill and BP have formed a 50-50 joint venture named Etlas, focusing on producing oilseed crops such as canola, mustard, and sunflower for biofuel raw materials [2] - Etlas plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 1 million tons of raw materials by the mid-2030s, with an expected output of over 800,000 tons of biofuels starting in 2027 [2] - The joint venture will utilize existing farmland by rotating these intermediate crops between main crop planting seasons, improving soil health and providing new income sources for farmers without requiring additional land [2] Group 2: Market Demand and Strategic Goals - Industry forecasts indicate that global SAF demand is expected to grow from approximately 1 million tons in 2024 to around 10 million tons by 2030, while RD demand may increase from about 17 million tons to 35 million tons [2] - Etlas aims to provide a reliable and scalable supply of raw materials to meet this increasing market demand for sustainable fuels [2] - The joint venture is described as a "light-asset" partnership that enhances both companies' strategic flexibility and competitiveness within the biofuel value chain [3]