Group 1: Domestic Market Trends - The domestic vegetable oil market shows significant differentiation, with palm oil reaching new highs, the main contract rising by 0.87% to refresh its peak, leading the oilseed sector [1] - Soybean oil steadily increased, with the main contract up by 0.50%, hitting a three-week high [1] - Canola oil experienced weak fluctuations, impacted by expectations of the China-Australia trade agreement, dropping to a two-week low before narrowing its decline to 0.14% due to short positions being reduced at the close [1] Group 2: Renewable Fuel Credits and Policies - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported an increase in renewable fuel blending credits for June, with ethanol (D6) credits at approximately 1.25 billion gallons, up from 1.22 billion gallons in May [3] - Biodiesel (D4) credits rose from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June, indicating increased activity in the fuel market, which is beneficial for demand for agricultural by-products [3] - Indonesia is exploring increasing biodiesel blending to 50% (B50), with research expected to be completed by the end of the year, although implementation by 2026 remains uncertain [3] Group 3: Global Palm Oil Price Outlook - Afrinvest's latest report predicts a significant rise in global palm oil prices, potentially reaching $1,200 per ton by the end of 2025, a 33% increase from the current price of $900 per ton [5] - The price increase is attributed to tightening supplies from major producers Indonesia and Malaysia, along with rising global demand driven by biofuel policies [5] - Geopolitical tensions have led to reduced sunflower oil supplies, further exacerbating the upward price trend [5] Group 4: Short-term Market Outlook - CICC Wealth Futures indicates that palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to declining exports, with domestic market momentum decreasing, although a strong oscillation state remains possible [7] - High domestic soybean crushing volumes and rising soybean oil inventories do not support excessive price increases for soybean oil [7] - The market for canola oil remains limited due to improved supply prospects following a near agreement on canola imports between China and Australia [7]

据外媒报道，马托格罗索州农业经济研究所(IMEA)公布，马托格罗索州7月7日至7月11日当周大豆压榨 利润为443.58雷亚尔/吨，此前一周为458.28雷亚尔/吨。当周，该州豆粕价格为1482.06雷亚尔/吨，豆油 价格为5879.53雷亚尔/吨。 7月14日：全国一级豆油成交量11200吨，环比上个交易日减少17.04%。 综合来看，现阶段豆油供应充足，受天气与替代品影响需求承压，后续北半球大豆进入生长关键期，国 际大豆价格将随着主产区天气震荡运行，需关注大豆主产区天气气候变化。中长期来看，美国豆油市场 出现较大变动，生物燃料需求激增，或将影响豆油后续价格走势，且USDA预期美豆出口目标将保持对 中国市场较强的依赖性，中美下阶段磋商结果会对美豆有直接影响，需要关注关税贸易谈判动向。 国际方面，随着本周美国减税法案尘埃落定，针对生物燃料生产商的45Z抵免发放基本明确，预计将令 美国生柴利润获得显著提升，利好相应油脂原料投料需求。在较严格的原料来源限制下，美豆油需求有 望获得显著增长，将支撑其价格长线走高。国内方面，棕榈油低库存持续修复，近期国内远月买船活 跃，根据我的钢铁网数据显示，上一交易日新增11条买船 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: There are doubts about production recovery in the origin, and it is boosted by macro - sentiment [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking driving forces [2]. - Soybean meal: The USDA report is bearish and the weather is good, so it may fluctuate weakly [2]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures market remains volatile [2]. - Corn: It is in a state of shock adjustment [2]. - Sugar: It mainly conducts range consolidation [2]. - Cotton: There are no new fundamental negatives, and attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season has been fulfilled [2]. - Hogs: It is in a state of shock adjustment [2]. - Peanuts: There is support at the bottom [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 8,682 yuan/ton with a 0.51% increase, and night - closing price was 8,712 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 7,986 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase, and night - closing price was 7,998 yuan/ton. The daily trading volume of palm oil increased by 135,812 hands, and the position increased by 7,433 hands. The daily trading volume of soybean oil increased by 43,018 hands, and the position increased by 1,620 hands [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 80.736 million tons, with the ending inventory expected to be 15.038 million tons (down 13,000 tons from last month's estimate), and exports expected to be 46.163 million tons (up 220,000 tons from last month's estimate). From July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and production increased by 35.28%. Malaysia's palm oil exports may increase in July, and inventory is expected to increase by 6% month - on - month to 2.16 million tons. The US will impose a 25% import tariff on all Malaysian palm oil products from August 1. The US 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.335 billion bushels, the ending inventory is expected to be 310 million bushels. The demand for soybean oil by bio - fuel producers in 2025/26 is expected to reach a record 15.5 billion pounds, and exports are expected to drop to 700 million pounds [5][6][7]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: The daily - closing price of DCE soybean 2509 was 4,101 yuan/ton with a 0.22% decrease, and the night - closing price was 4,110 yuan/ton with a 0.29% increase. The daily - closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 2,976 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - closing price was 2,975 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 11, CBOT soybean futures fell to a three - month low. The US 2025 soybean production estimate was adjusted down from 4.34 billion bushels in June to 4.335 billion bushels, and the 2025/26 ending inventory was expected to be 310 million bushels (higher than the June forecast). The 2024/25 Argentine soybean production was raised by 900,000 tons to 49.9 million tons, and Brazil's remained at 169 million tons. China's 2024/25 soybean import estimate was lowered by 1.5 million tons to 106.5 million tons [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The daily - closing price of C2509 was 2,306 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease, and the night - closing price was 2,283 yuan/ton with a 1.00% decrease. The daily trading volume increased by 126,607 hands, and the position increased by 25,082 hands. The daily - closing price of C2511 was 2,273 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase, and the night - closing price was 2,263 yuan/ton with a 0.44% decrease. The daily trading volume increased by 4,487 hands, and the position increased by 6,396 hands [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou also decreased. The corn price of enterprises in Northeast China mostly declined, and the price in North China also went down. The price of imported sorghum and barley for different shipping periods was reported [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,060 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,810 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread was 181 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was 54 yuan/ton [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon precipitation was higher than the long - period average; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May. The CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. The ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [21][22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The daily - closing price of CF2509 was 13,885 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. The daily - closing price of CY2509 was 20,095 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, and the night - closing price was 20,105 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 decreased by 20,816 hands, and the position increased by 6,270 hands. The trading volume of CY2509 decreased by 1,999 hands, and the position increased by 1,045 hands [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The pure - cotton yarn market remained dull, and the all - cotton grey - cloth market was also light. The ICE cotton futures fell slightly last Friday, and the USDA's monthly supply - demand report was slightly bearish, as it raised the 2025/26 US and global cotton production and ending inventory [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,442 yuan/500 kg with a 0.15% decrease, and the trading volume decreased by 70,386 hands, and the position decreased by 28,472 hands. The closing price of egg 2510 was 3,376 yuan/500 kg with a 0.42% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 2,996 hands, and the position increased by 253 hands [30]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 14,830 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 14,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 16,290 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2509 was 14,345 yuan/ton, the closing price of hog 2511 was 13,645 yuan/ton, and the closing price of hog 2601 was 13,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume of hog 2509 decreased by 18,841 hands, and the position decreased by 2,269 hands. The trading volume of hog 2511 decreased by 3,951 hands, and the position decreased by 326 hands. The trading volume of hog 2601 decreased by 816 hands, and the position increased by 575 hands [34]. - **Market Logic**: The futures market has entered the expectation - trading stage. The expectation of state reserves purchase has driven the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - term sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to - late July. The impact path of this inventory rotation is more complex, and attention should be paid to the spot performance. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,000 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 9,060 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 8,170 yuan/ton with a 0.02% decrease, and the closing price of PK511 was 8,016 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume of PK510 increased by 7,006 hands, and the position decreased by 1,665 hands. The trading volume of PK511 increased by 2,267 hands, and the position increased by 1,040 hands [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, raw - material procurement has basically ended, and cold - storage goods are mainly traded. In Jilin, the price of 308 common peanuts is around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, the grassroots raw - material procurement has ended, and inventory trading is the main activity. In Shandong, raw - material procurement has ended, and cold - storage goods are traded, with prices in most areas showing a weakening trend [39].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The USDA's July supply - demand report shows changes in the 2025/26 forecasts for US soybeans and soybean oil, with decreases in soybean export and production estimates and increases in soybean oil production and domestic consumption estimates [1] - US soybean crush volume in June 2025 is expected to drop to a four - month low due to slower daily processing speed, but it will still be the highest for the same period on record after capacity expansion [1] - The US biofuel demand will absorb over half of the US soybean oil production next year, leading to a significant drop in soybean oil exports [1] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow by 1.2%, and production may reach a record high [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US 2025/26 Soybean Information**: The sown area is estimated at 83.4 million acres (down from 83.5 million in June), the harvested area at 82.5 million acres (down from 82.7 million in June), the yield per acre at 52.5 bushels (unchanged from June), the production at 4.335 billion bushels (down from 4.34 billion in June), the export volume at 1.745 billion bushels (down from 1.815 billion in June), and the ending stocks at 310 million bushels (up from 295 million in June) [1] - **US 2025/26 Soybean Oil Information**: The production is estimated at 29.97 billion pounds (up from 29.38 billion in June), the export volume at 700 million pounds (down from 1.7 billion in June), the domestic consumption at 29.5 billion pounds (up from 27.9 billion in June), and the ending stocks at 1.671 billion pounds (up from 1.531 billion in June) [1] - **US June 2025 Soybean Crush Estimate**: Analysts estimate the crush volume at 185.195 million bushels, a 4.0% drop from May but a 5.5% increase from June 2024. The daily processing volume is 6.173 million bushels, the lowest monthly speed since September last year. The estimated range is 182 million to 188 million bushels, with a median of 185.175 million bushels. The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of June 30 is 1.374 billion pounds, a 0.1% increase from May but a 15.3% decrease from last year [1] - **Soybean Export**: A private exporter reported selling 219,900 tons of soybeans to Mexico for the 2025/2026 marketing year [1] - **US Biofuel Demand for Soybean Oil**: The USDA expects biofuel producers to consume over half of the US soybean oil production in 2025/26, with the demand forecast raised to a record 15.5 billion pounds, an 11.5% increase from the previous month and a 26.5% increase from the current market year. Due to increased domestic consumption, the export volume is expected to drop to 700 million pounds from 2.6 billion pounds this year [1] - **Brazil's 2025/26 Soybean Outlook**: Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil's soybean planting area to grow 1.2% to 48.2 million hectares (119.1 million acres), and the production to reach a record 179.88 million tons, a 4.6% increase from 2024/25 [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 7 - 11, 2025 are provided in a table [3] Other Information - Information on imported soybean crushing profit on the futures market and grease import profit is mentioned but not detailed [2] - Protein meal basis and grease basis are mentioned but not detailed [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 23 to close at 1048.25 cents per bushel, a 2.24% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 8 to close at 2954 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to 2820 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 38 to 2597 yuan per ton, a 1.48% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 80 to 2490 yuan per ton, a 3.32% increase [4]. - The US soybeans fluctuated and rose during the week, mainly due to the passage and signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US. The provisions related to biodiesel tax will ban the use of raw materials outside North America for the production of 45Z tax credits for biofuel production, which is beneficial to expanding the demand for US soybean oil. Soybean meal is constrained by the expectation of loose supply, and the spot price is under pressure with limited rebound space. The Dalian soybean meal fluctuated narrowly at a low level during the week, mainly limited by the near - term supply pressure and supported by the expectation of tight supply in the long - term. The rapeseed meal in Canada is generally stronger than soybean meal due to less precipitation in the rapeseed production area [4][7]. - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US is beneficial to increasing the demand for US soybean oil and supporting the strength of US soybeans. The cumulative precipitation in the production area in the next two weeks is slightly higher than the normal level, but there is an expectation of less precipitation in the Midwest from the 13th to the 20th. Continuously monitor the weather changes. The less precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed production area and poor soil moisture support the rapeseed meal. The domestic soybean meal is still in the process of inventory accumulation, and the overall spot supply is loose. The soybeans for the October - December shipping schedule in China have not been purchased yet, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter. Although there are signs of easing in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, there may be repeated situations. Pay attention to the procurement dynamics of US soybeans. In addition, a report on the adjustment of the new - year US soybean balance sheet is about to be released. Wait for the guidance of the report. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Contract | July 4 | June 27 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1048.25 | 1025.25 | 23.00 | 2.24% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 465.00 | 456.00 | 9.00 | 1.97% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 448.00 | 449.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.22% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 96.10 | 62.29 | - 158.40 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2954.00 | 2946.00 | 8.00 | 0.27% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2597.00 | 2559.00 | 38.00 | 1.48% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 357.00 | 387.00 | - 30.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 134.00 | - 146.00 | 12.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US Department of Agriculture's end - of - June report was released, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, overall neutral. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly lower than market expectations. One reason is the concern about Sino - US trade frictions, and US farmers switched to other crops. Another reason is that there was excessive precipitation in the non - core southern regions of the US, the sowing progress was slow, and some areas abandoned sowing, resulting in a slight decline in the planting area. The quarterly inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels. The large quarterly inventory suppresses the near - term contracts, while the long - term contracts are supported by the decline in the area [8]. - According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of June 29, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and lower than 67% in the same period last year. As of that week, the emergence rate of US soybeans was 94%, compared with 90% in the previous week, 94% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 95%. As of that week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 17%, compared with 8% in the previous week, 18% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16%. The pod - setting rate of US soybeans was 3%, the same as in the same period last year and a five - year average of 2%. As of the week of July 1, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 12% in the previous week and 9% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production area is generally slightly higher than the average level, but there is an expectation of reduced precipitation from July 13th to 19th [8][9]. - As of the week of June 26, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 462,000 tons, compared with 403,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year were 49.94 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.2%, compared with 96.8% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 year in that week were 239,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 1.588 million tons, compared with 1.376 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - The USDA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in May 2025 was 6.11 million tons, compared with 6.07 million tons in the previous month and 5.75 million tons in the same period last year. As of now, the cumulative crushing volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year has increased by 5.84% year - on - year, generally in line with the annual expectation [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in the US was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. For reference, the average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton, equivalent to $6.12 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.35 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel, compared with $10.66 per bushel a week ago [10]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 13.93 million tons, up from the previous expectation of 13.83 million tons. The StoneX institution raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 168.25 million tons [10]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons from the previous week and 1.0002 million tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 361,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The unfulfilled contracts were 3.323 million tons, a decrease of 795,600 tons from the previous week and 784,000 tons less than the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.088 million tons, an increase of 255,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0141 million tons more than the same period last year. As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 165,740 tons, including 49,980 tons of spot trading and 115,760 tons of forward trading, compared with an average daily trading volume of 140,180 tons in the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 187,670 tons, compared with 195,700 tons in the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, compared with 2.4878 million tons in the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.91 days, compared with 7.75 days in the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - Data released by the US Energy Information Administration shows that the amount of soybean oil used for biofuel production in the US in April dropped to 829 million pounds. In March, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production was 832 million pounds. Soybean oil remains the largest biodiesel raw material in the US [13]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso State announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State from June 23rd to 27th was 472.58 reais per ton, compared with 493.39 reais per ton in the previous week. During that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1537.75 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5757.33 reais per ton [13]. - Data from the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina shows that in the first six months of this year, Argentina exported a record 64.5 million tons of grains and their derivatives, and the export volume in June also broke the monthly export record. Exporters rushed to export before the increase in export tax rates for many key agricultural products on July 1 [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) expects the soybean planting area in India this year to decrease by about 5%. The association said that this is mainly because many farmers switched to other alternative crops such as corn, red millet, and cotton, as soybeans had poor returns due to low market prices in the past two consecutive years. SOPA Executive Director DN Pathak said: "The overall decline may be around 5%, but a better estimate can only be obtained after sowing is completed." The association said that the soybean planting area last year was about 11.748 million hectares [14]. - According to foreign news, data released by the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food of Argentina shows that as of the week of June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 1.1031 million tons, and the export industry purchased 576,200 tons. In addition, Argentine farmers sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 264,400 tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 49,900 tons, and the export industry purchased 0 tons. The total sales of soybeans of all years in that week were 1.7866 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 64.7278 million tons. As of June 25, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 soybeans was 5.691 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 0 tons [14]. - Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission shows that as of the week of June 29, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 47.16% from the previous week to 173,500 tons, compared with 117,900 tons in the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase compared with 6.0339 million tons in the same period of the previous year. As of June 29, the commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 1.2112 million tons [15]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in its weekly crop report that Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous year [15]. 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rate trends, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal weekly average daily pick - up volume, etc., which visually show the price trends, trading data, and crop growth - related data of soybeans and soybean meal [16][18][24][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: It is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the复产 situation. If there is excessive inventory accumulation from August to September or poor demand sentiment in China and India, it is suitable for seasonal short - allocation, mainly using the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy. There is still room for price pressure to be released due to the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on crude oil. In the second half of the year, there are potential positives in production and demand. After the fundamental problems are digested in the third quarter, there may be opportunities to go long on palm oil at low positions [4][5][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is also in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Currently, inventory is accumulating rapidly, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, if there are issues in soybean imports, there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the expected change in palm oil inventory inflection point and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [8][9]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to US trade agreements, US soybean production area weather, and the July USDA supply - demand report. For domestic soybeans, the spot market is stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the soybean market [22]. - **Corn**: It is expected to run in a volatile manner. CBOT corn has risen, wheat prices have increased, and corn starch inventory has risen. The futures market has declined due to import corn auctions, but the supply - demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged [42][44][47]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, it is in low - level consolidation, with a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, it lacks guidance and is in narrow - range consolidation, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [79][108]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is in a low - level volatile market, affected by the higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the approaching deadline of US tariff policy. Domestic cotton futures are also in a volatile trend, with price support from concerns about tight domestic cotton inventory, but limited upward momentum due to poor downstream conditions [109][110][126]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is running strongly, with tight supply at the beginning of the month and decreased demand. The futures price is also running strongly [130]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: Palm oil followed crude oil and US soybean oil, with the 09 contract rising 1.15%. Soybean oil had weak reality trading, with the 09 contract falling 0.72% [4]. - **This Week's Situation**: Palm oil is in an oscillatingly strong pattern, but there are uncertainties in Malaysian production from June to August. Indonesian prices are high, and the market is sensitive to the reduction of US soybean oil supply. Soybean oil inventory may peak in July, and there are potential positives after the third quarter [5][8]. - **Market Data**: Palm oil main - continuous contract had an opening price of 8,366 yuan/ton, a closing price of 8,472 yuan/ton, and a weekly increase of 1.15%. Soybean oil main - continuous contract had an opening price of 7,994 yuan/ton, a closing price of 7,944 yuan/ton, and a weekly decrease of 0.72% [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Situation**: US soybean futures prices rose mainly due to the rise of US soybean oil and potential progress in US - China trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were mixed, and soybean No.1 futures prices were weak [17][18]. - **International Market Fundamentals**: US soybean net sales increased week - on - week, the excellent - good rate was flat, Brazilian soybean CNF premiums and import costs increased, and the USDA planting area report was positive while the quarterly inventory report was negative [18]. - **Domestic Spot Situation**: For soybean meal, trading volume increased, pick - up volume decreased, basis decreased, inventory increased, and soybean crushing volume decreased. For soybean No.1, the price was stable in the north and rose slightly in the south, and new beans in the northeast were growing well [21][22]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of July 4. In the futures market, prices fell due to import corn auctions, and the basis strengthened [42][43]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn rose due to expected rainfall. Wheat prices increased, and import corn auctions were active. Corn starch inventory increased, and the futures market declined due to policy - driven imports, but the supply - demand imbalance remained [44][45][47]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the US dollar index decreased, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate decreased, WTI crude oil prices fell, and New York raw sugar prices fell. Fund net long positions decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price in Guangxi rose slightly, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly, with a slightly higher basis [77][78]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it is in low - level consolidation, with a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, it lacks guidance and is in narrow - range consolidation, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [79]. Cotton - **Situation as of July 4**: ICE cotton fell 1.28% after the release of the US cotton planting area report. Domestic textile enterprises' operating conditions did not improve, and domestic cotton futures were oscillatingly strong, with limited upward momentum due to poor downstream conditions [109][110]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton export sales data showed different trends in different periods. Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries had different situations in planting, production, and trade. Domestically, cotton spot trading was weak, prices were stable, and downstream trading was still light [114][115][121]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review (June 30 - July 6)**: In the spot market, hog prices were running strongly, with tight supply and decreased demand. In the futures market, the price was also running strongly, and the basis decreased slightly [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: With the release of MPOA production data and potential inventory decline at the end of the month, crude palm oil futures may break through previous highs. However, due to the expected seasonal increase in July production, beware of the risk of price pull - back around the MPOB report. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market may continue to rise in the short - term [1]. - Soybean oil: The US Senate passed a fiscal spending bill including 45Z tax credits, which is expected to boost soybean oil consumption if passed by the House and signed by the President. Domestically, high factory operating rates have increased inventory, but the selling pressure on oil mills is not large, and the decline is expected to be limited [1]. 2.2 Corn - The current corn price is stable but lacks upward momentum due to continuous import auctions. In the medium - term, supply is tight, imports are low, and consumption is increasing, which may support price increases. Short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to policy auctions [3][5]. 2.3 Meal - US soybeans have strengthened technical support and rebounded. Brazilian soybean prices are rising. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, but there is no significant inventory pressure on soybean meal. The supply is expected to be high, and attention should be paid to demand [6]. 2.4 Pork - The spot price of live pigs is oscillating strongly. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing, and attention should be paid to the pressure above 14,500 [9]. 2.5 Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline has supported the rebound of raw sugar prices, but the global supply is loose, and the rebound is limited. Domestically, the market sentiment is positive, but considering future imports, the market may turn bearish after the rebound [12]. 2.6 Cotton - The short - term supply of old - crop cotton is tight, but the long - term supply is sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [14]. 2.7 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then stabilize [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On July 3, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,290 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,994 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,560 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 was 8,478 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,830 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; the futures price of O1509 was 9,618 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 20 yuan/ton, down 54.55%; the palm oil 09 - 01 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100.00%; the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 65 yuan/ton, up 6.15% [1]. 3.2 Corn - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of corn 2509 was 2,363 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,731 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Market situation**: In the Northeast, the remaining grain is scarce, and prices are firm; in North China, the shipment volume has increased slightly, and deep - processing prices are stable with partial declines. The overall demand is resilient, but wheat substitution limits price increases [3]. 3.3 Meal - **Prices**: On July 3, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2,958 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 1.21%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,601 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [6]. - **Market situation**: US soybean prices have rebounded, and Brazilian soybean prices are rising. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is expected to be high [6]. 3.4 Pork - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of the main live - pig contract was 830 yuan/ton, up 9.21%. The spot price in Henan was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market situation**: The inventory of secondary - fattened pigs is increasing, the slaughter procurement is more difficult, and the spot price is rising. The market sentiment is positive in the short - term, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing [9]. 3.5 Sugar - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,576 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the futures price of sugar 2509 was 5,767 yuan/ton, up 0.02%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.37 cents/pound, up 5.21% [12]. - **Industry situation**: The national sugar production and sales have increased year - on - year, and the inventory has decreased [12]. 3.6 Cotton - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 13,785 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures price of cotton 2601 was 13,785 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.43 cents/pound, down 0.31% [14]. - **Industry situation**: The inventory in the north is decreasing, the industrial inventory is slightly down, and the import volume has decreased. The downstream inventory is increasing, and the processing profit is decreasing [14]. 3.7 Eggs - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3,690 yuan/500KG, up 0.33%; the futures price of the egg 08 contract was 3,565 yuan/500KG, up 0.59%. The egg - producing area price was 2.60 yuan/jin, unchanged [15]. - **Market situation**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and prices are expected to be stable with a slight decline in the short - term [15].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a bullish trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8522.00 yuan and closing at 8482.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.27% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Hualian Futures suggests a support level for palm oil at around 7800 yuan [2]. - Zhonghui Futures anticipates that palm oil will mainly operate below previous highs in the near term [3]. - Ningzheng Futures recommends a low-position buying strategy for palm oil due to reduced production and increased exports in June [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - SPPOMA data indicates a 0.65% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 to June 30, while exports have slightly increased, alleviating inventory pressure [2]. - The recent U.S. Senate decision to restrict tax credits for biofuels produced from non-North American materials is expected to positively impact soybean oil prices, indirectly affecting palm oil [2]. - The domestic market is experiencing a supply surplus of palm oil, leading to weak demand, as indicated by the ongoing inversion in the price difference between soybean and palm oil [4].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | 合約 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 成高价 : | 或低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌:涨跌幅 | | 成交量 : | 特企业 | 特色重变化: | | ...

油脂：美生柴政策利好 油脂震荡收涨 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、6 月 30 日美国农业部发布的播种意向数据显示，2025 年美国农户计划播种 8338 万 英亩大豆，低于 3 月份预测的 8349.5 万英亩，同比降低 4.2%，也低于市场平均预估的 8365.5 万英亩（范围 8250-8530 万英亩）。 2、美国农业部作物进展周报显示，截至周日(6 月 29 日），大豆出苗率为 94%，高于前 一周的 90%，历史均值 95%。大豆优良率为 66%，和上周持平，而分析师预期优良率提高到 67%。 3、美国参议院最新税收法案提出，将禁止使用北美以外原料（如中国废弃食用油）生 产的生物燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。该措施较此前版本更为严格。原提案允许使用进口原料的 燃料生产商申请 80%的税收抵免。 4、南马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPPOMMA）的数据显示，2025 年 6 月 1-30 日，南马来西亚 棕榈油产量环比减少 0.65%，其中鲜果串单产环比减少 0.23%，出油率（OER）减少 0.08%。 1 / 3 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号： ...