出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 香港稳定币行业制度化、法治化的分界点来了。 2025年8月1日，香港《稳定币条例》正式生效。从这一刻起，香港稳定币终于从混乱走进明规则。 发币成了合法生意，但设定了较高的门槛 ——只有注册地在香港、资金实力雄厚、合规能力突出的公司才能继续"留在牌桌"，个人、散户、小作坊和灰色项目都被彻底挡在门外。 尽管门槛空前，但香港对虚拟货币的态度，已经发生了大转变——从过去谨慎甚至偏负面的防守，到如今率先落地全球首个法币挂钩稳定币全面 监管制度的转向。这背后的意图究竟是什么？ # 01 推出稳定币的两个目的 香港推动稳定币的出台， 一是防御——削弱美元霸权、防止本地铸币税流失；二是进攻——谋求在未来全球货币体系中赢得更大的主导权与话 语权 。 先来看看稳定币是什么？ 稳定币，本质上就是一种价格稳定的数字货币。最常见的是1:1锚定美元、港元等法定货币，比如USDT、USDC。你可以把它理解为"全球通用 的数字现金"：哪怕你身处不同国家，只要拥有一枚USDT或USDC，就等同于拥有一张即时可用、随时可兑换的数字美元，无论是换回法币，还 是兑换成其他加密资产，既灵活又安 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the failure of the U.S. strategy under Trump to resolve the $36 trillion national debt through a trade war with China, highlighting that China is not yielding to U.S. pressure [1][9][16] - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has become more assertive, imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and shifting parts of its supply chain to Southeast Asia to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [3][5][11] - China is also focusing on technological advancements, increasing investments in core technologies like chips and artificial intelligence to achieve self-sufficiency and mitigate risks from U.S. actions [7][11] Group 2 - Trump's approach to reduce trade deficits through tariffs has backfired, leading to increased pressure on U.S. exporters and farmers, resulting in inventory buildup and domestic unrest [13][16] - Despite attempts to negotiate and cancel some tariffs, the trade deficit remains unchanged, and the global supply chain has been disrupted, leading to a stalemate in the trade war [16][19] - Trump has also targeted the Federal Reserve, blaming it for the economic slowdown due to high interest rates, and has attempted to exert political pressure on the Fed, which operates independently [19][21] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the root cause of the U.S. debt issue is not merely excessive spending but a structural imbalance in the economy, with military and welfare expenditures being politically untouchable [27][29] - Trump's tax cuts and deregulation may provide short-term economic boosts but exacerbate long-term debt issues, with projections indicating that debt will continue to rise significantly [29][31] - The increasing U.S. debt could undermine global confidence in the dollar, leading to higher borrowing costs and a potential economic crisis, as countries seek alternatives to U.S. debt [31][33]

Group 1 - The core concept of RWA (Real World Assets) is the tokenization of tangible and intangible assets, allowing them to be fractionalized and traded on blockchain platforms, potentially reaching a market size of $16 trillion by 2030, which is about 10% of global GDP [1][2][3] - RWA aims to provide a financing channel for asset holders and lower investment barriers for investors, echoing the goals of P2P lending but with a more reliable and transparent mechanism [3][4] - RWA utilizes blockchain technology and smart contracts to enhance transparency and security, addressing issues that plagued P2P lending, such as credit risk and information opacity [5][6][7] Group 2 - Despite improvements, RWA still faces risks related to the authenticity of underlying assets, as blockchain cannot verify the existence of off-chain assets, leading to potential issues with "fake" or low-quality assets [8][9] - The global nature of RWA introduces new complexities in risk management, as assets can be tokenized and sold across borders, creating challenges in regulation and legal recourse for investors [10][11] - RWA is increasingly influenced by state-level actors, with significant participation from government-backed assets like U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating its role as a geopolitical tool in the digital finance landscape [12][13] Group 3 - The rise of RWA could lead to a structural shift in global finance, potentially undermining local currencies and monetary policies as capital flows towards dollar-denominated assets [14][15] - Some regions are exploring local stablecoins to mitigate risks associated with RWA, aiming to maintain financial sovereignty while adapting to the evolving digital finance ecosystem [15][16] - Ultimately, RWA represents a convergence of financial technology, geopolitical strategy, and the quest for monetary authority, posing both opportunities and challenges for individual investors [16]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is facing a significant debt crisis, planning to borrow over $1 trillion in the next three months, which is more than double the amount borrowed in April [1][3] - The market's confidence in U.S. debt is wavering, as evidenced by the spike in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5% and 30-year yields surpassing 5%, indicating investor skepticism [3] - The offshore RMB has appreciated by 3.5% from 7.4 to 7.1 against the dollar, reflecting a shift in currency dynamics amid U.S. debt issuance [5] Group 2 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to $756.3 billion, the lowest since 2009, while simultaneously issuing its own dollar-denominated bonds [5] - The global share of the dollar in foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 72% to 58%, while the use of RMB for settlements in ASEAN countries has surged to 38% [8] - Chinese enterprises hold approximately 15 trillion RMB in overseas funds, with predictions that a stronger offshore RMB could trigger significant capital repatriation [8][10] Group 3 - The U.S. fiscal deficit is widening, raising concerns about the sustainability of its debt strategy, especially as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates [10][12] - China's fiscal strategy focuses on infrastructure and high-tech investments, with a fiscal deficit rate increase from 3% to 4%, leading to notable domestic market growth [12] - The ongoing capital movement and the potential for RMB appreciation could positively impact domestic stock and real estate markets [12][14] Group 4 - The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, with the dollar's dominance being challenged and the internationalization of the RMB accelerating [15]

Group 1: International Currency Status - The international status of the Renminbi (RMB) is under scrutiny, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves at only 4.7%, compared to the US dollar's 57% [1][3] - The dominance of the US dollar is attributed to decades of established international settlement currency status, which has created a currency exchange system that favors the dollar [1][3] - Changing the current situation requires a long-term strategic game with the US, potentially taking ten to twenty years or more, and necessitates the US gradually relinquishing its power [3] Group 2: Cross-Strait Relations and Political Dynamics - Tensions in US-China relations are escalating, with the US sending mixed signals regarding support for Taiwan's ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) [5] - The DPP's attempt to eliminate the Kuomintang (KMT) through a large-scale purge has failed, indicating that the KMT remains a significant political force [7] - The existence of the KMT is seen as necessary for balancing internal power dynamics, especially in the context of ongoing US-China tensions, as a one-party dominance by the DPP could destabilize cross-strait relations [9]

1930年6月，美国国会通过《斯姆特-霍利关税法》，将2000多种进口商品关税提到历史最高点。一年后，全球贸易规模萎缩60%，这场关税战被经济学家公 认为加剧大萧条的元凶。 近百年后的现在，今年的7月31日，特朗普在"真实社交"平台连发三条贺电，欢呼"关税正让美国再次伟大富强"，宣称美国经济从"死寂中复苏"。 全球屏息等待8月1日关税大棒落下时，一支中国舰队正破浪驶向俄罗斯远东，从稀土管制到中俄军演，再到中美深夜达成90天缓冲协议，中国突围战已然打 响。 特朗普的关税政策，三条贺电背后的真相 今年7月，特朗普三天内向22国射出关税子弹：日本韩国挨了25%"盟友税"，巴西因拒绝停止调查前总统博索纳罗被独吞50%惩罚性税率，欧盟汽车关税从 平均4.8%飙升至15%。 更狠的是埋下"转口条款"陷阱，经越南中转的第三国商品追加40%关税，彻底堵死企业绕道之路。 欧盟最后时刻签下"裹着糖衣的毒药"：统一关税压到15%的代价，是未来五年购买7500亿美元美国液化天然气，并向美完全开放汽车市场。 德国车企算盘打得清醒：奔驰宝马北美利润预计缩水40%，马克龙直接撕破脸："欧洲必须减少对美国的依赖！" 东亚盟友同样憋屈。韩国用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current turmoil in the financial markets, driven by political pressures, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, rising bond yields, and global trade tensions, all of which are contributing to a potential shift in the global financial order. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with a 62.6% chance of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with three factions emerging: dovish, cautious about inflation, and hawkish, with differing views on interest rate adjustments [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady reflects the complex interplay of political and economic pressures, with significant implications for future monetary policy [9] Group 2: Political Influences - President Trump's late-night tweet demanding a 300 basis point rate cut caused immediate market reactions, including a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index [3] - The White House has begun the process of selecting a new Federal Reserve chair, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5%, marking the beginning of a "long-term high interest rate era," which could lead to increased debt servicing costs for the government [5] - The yield curve is approaching levels not seen since the 1980s, raising concerns about potential market instability [5] Group 4: Global Trade and Technology - The U.S.-China tech rivalry continues to escalate, with significant developments such as NVIDIA's approval to export AI chips to China, impacting market sentiment [6] - Trade tensions are further exacerbated by new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indonesian products, leading to retaliatory threats from other nations [6] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Gold futures prices have surged to a historical peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices have also seen significant increases, reflecting heightened demand amid market volatility [7] - In contrast, the domestic gold market in China has experienced a decline in sales, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior amidst fluctuating prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that pain and reflection lead to progress, marking his retirement after selling all his shares in the fund [1][2]. Group 1: Bridgewater's Recent Developments - Bridgewater has repurchased all remaining shares from Dalio and issued new shares to the Brunei Sovereign Wealth Fund, granting it nearly 20% ownership [2]. - Dalio has successfully predicted major trends over his 50-year career, including the 2008 financial crisis and the European debt crisis [2]. Group 2: Future Economic Predictions - Dalio warns of a 65% probability of a global debt crisis in the next five years, which could severely impact the dominance of the US dollar [4]. - He believes that entities failing to recognize their position in economic cycles will be overwhelmed by powerful economic forces [4]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy and Historical Performance - Dalio's investment journey began in 1975, leading Bridgewater to become the world's largest hedge fund, with notable performance during crises [5]. - Despite recent challenges, Bridgewater's flagship fund, Pure Alpha, has shown improvement, achieving an 11.3% return in 2024 and 17% in the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Critiques of Dalio's Debt Theory - Dalio's theory on debt accumulation has faced criticism for applying microeconomic reasoning to macroeconomic issues, potentially oversimplifying complex economic dynamics [7][8]. - Critics argue that the sustainability of US debt is tied to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, which is threatened by various factors [8]. Group 5: Dalio's Legacy and Principles - Dalio reflects on his journey with Bridgewater, emphasizing the importance of culture, decision-making standards, and learning from mistakes [10]. - He outlines seven key investment principles, including understanding causal relationships and the importance of diversification to mitigate risk [10][11].

Group 1 - The core of the ongoing geopolitical struggle revolves around the defense and challenge of US dollar hegemony, with the US expressing strong opposition to energy cooperation among China, Russia, and Iran due to fears of a "de-dollarization" process [4][6] - The construction of a "non-dollar" system is shaking the foundations of the entrenched "petrodollar" system, with countries like India, Brazil, and Turkey actively seeking diversification strategies under US sanctions pressure [6][8] - The contrasting strategies of the US's "wall-building" (protectionism and high tariffs) and China's "bridge-building" (multilateral cooperation and industrial upgrading) highlight a potential decline in US international influence as more countries seek collaboration with China [8] Group 2 - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments on the "collapse" of the Chinese economy reflect Washington's anxiety and strategic goals, citing pressures in the real estate market and accusations of dumping cheap goods as unsustainable practices [8][9] - However, these claims are contradicted by international assessments and China's own economic data, which show a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target of 5% [9][11] - The rapid convening of a trilateral meeting in Tehran among China, Russia, and Iran directly counters US efforts to isolate China, with all parties opposing unilateral sanctions not authorized by the UN Security Council [13][15] Group 3 - The US's strategy of building alliances while simultaneously imposing tariffs on allies raises questions about its strategic consistency, leading to internal dissent within the US regarding the rapid implementation of sanctions [15][16] - The diplomatic contrast between Yellen's rhetoric and China's proactive actions illustrates that the reality of multipolarity is reshaping the international order, with US pressure inadvertently catalyzing deeper cooperation among China, Russia, and Iran [16][18] - This geopolitical struggle signals the emergence of a more balanced and multipolar international order, accelerating amidst the anxieties and struggles of the old hegemony [18]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sold all his remaining shares and stepped down from the board, marking his retirement after a 50-year investment career [1][8] - Bridgewater has repurchased Dalio's shares and issued new stock to the Brunei sovereign wealth fund, giving it nearly 20% ownership [1] - Dalio warns of a 65% probability of a global debt crisis in the next five years, which could severely impact the dominance of the US dollar [1] Performance - Bridgewater Associates, founded by Dalio in 1975, has become the world's largest hedge fund under his leadership, achieving significant returns during key financial crises [2] - The flagship fund, Pure Alpha, has seen a decline in assets from $168 billion at the end of 2019 to an expected $92.1 billion by the end of 2024, with a cumulative return of only 5.9% over five years [3] - However, after limiting its size, Pure Alpha improved its performance, achieving an 11.3% return in 2024 and 17% in the first half of 2025 [3] Controversies - Dalio's debt theory has faced criticism, particularly regarding his approach to macroeconomic analysis, which some argue is overly simplistic [4][5] - Critics suggest that his view of national debt as a direct precursor to crises does not account for the complexities of macroeconomic behavior and the unique position of the US as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency [5][6] Legacy - Dalio has emphasized the importance of principles in his investment philosophy, including the need for a culture of transparency and learning from mistakes [8] - He has expressed excitement about the future of Bridgewater without his direct involvement, hoping for continued success under new leadership [8] - Dalio's investment principles highlight the significance of understanding causal relationships, diversification, and the importance of adapting to changing market conditions [10]