Group 1 - The private residential property price index in Hong Kong rose to 287.9 points in July, a 0.42% increase from June, marking four consecutive months of growth, although it is down 3.26% year-on-year [1] - The rental index reached 196.3 points in July, reflecting a 0.56% month-on-month increase and a 1.29% year-on-year rise, with a cumulative increase of 1.97% in the first seven months of the year [1] - The increase in property prices is attributed to the decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), creating a "super low interest honeymoon period" that has attracted buyers into the market [1] Group 2 - The government’s policy report is anticipated to include economic stimulus measures, which could positively impact the property market, leading to a recovery in property prices [2] - The first-hand property market is performing well, with approximately 1,700 transactions recorded so far this month, potentially reaching 2,500 for the entire month, surpassing June's high of 2,400 [2] - The rental market is experiencing sustained demand due to various talent policies and the influx of overseas and mainland students, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that is likely to keep rental prices rising [2]

Group 1 - Selena Ling, head of Global Financial Markets Research and Strategy at OCBC Bank, expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a total potential reduction of up to 75 basis points for the year, anticipating five rate cuts over the next two years [1] - Ling indicates that the demand from central banks, institutions, and retail investors, along with the Fed's resumption of the rate-cutting cycle, could enhance the attractiveness of gold, projecting a year-end target price of $3,570 per ounce and a mid-next-year target of $3,850 per ounce [1] - OCBC's Hong Kong economist, Jiang Jing, has raised the GDP forecast for Hong Kong from 2.2% to 2.6% for the year, citing better-than-expected economic performance in the first half, while expecting moderate growth in the second half due to tariff disruptions and mixed effects from asset market wealth [1] Group 2 - OCBC's Hong Kong economist, Wang Haoting, notes that the US dollar index has performed poorly this year, the worst in nearly 20 years, influenced by uncertainties in US policies such as tariffs, and expects the dollar to continue weakening [1] - The bank forecasts the US dollar index to drop to 95.55 by the end of this year and to 94.93 by mid-next year, driven by trends of dollar diversification and the Fed potentially entering a rate-cutting phase [1] - The bank anticipates that Hong Kong banks will further lower the best lending rate by 25 basis points in the third quarter, returning to levels seen before the US rate hike cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the target price for Henderson Land Development (00012) from HKD 31 to HKD 30, citing a discount of approximately 50% to the net asset value per share, while anticipating a potential bottoming out of Hong Kong property prices [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong residential property prices to remain flat this year, while office and shopping mall rents may decline by 5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for Henderson Land Development for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 8% to reflect underwhelming mid-term performance, the latest pre-sale status of property development projects, rental income expectations, and the progress of land reclamation [1] Group 3: Dividend Expectations - Despite the earnings downgrade, Morgan Stanley maintains the dividend forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 at HKD 1.8 per share, expecting stable rental income, dividends from Hong Kong and China Gas (00003), accelerated land reclamation, improved residential sales in the second half, and support from major shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, indicates that the market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle, including the timing, magnitude, and duration of rate hikes and cuts. The expectation is that the Fed will initiate its first rate cut in March 2024, with a total of seven cuts anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 1 - The timing of the rate cut initiation may be later than some market expectations, but the overall aggressiveness, magnitude, and frequency of the cuts are still expected to be significant [1] - As the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, there is an anticipated weakening of the US dollar over the next one to two years, which is seen as favorable for Chinese assets [1] - Under a weak dollar scenario, a slight appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is expected, which historically increases the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, anticipates the Federal Reserve will begin its first rate cut in March 2024, with a total of seven rate cuts expected by 2026 [1] - The timing of the rate cuts may be later than some market expectations, but the overall aggressiveness, magnitude, and frequency of the cuts are still anticipated to be significant [1] Group 2 - Wang Ying believes that as the Federal Reserve opens its rate cut cycle, the US dollar is likely to weaken over the next one to two years, which would be beneficial for Chinese assets [3] - Under a weak dollar scenario, there is an expectation of a slight appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, and historical data indicates that this situation enhances the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [3]

Group 1 - DWS's Chief Investment Officer Vincenzo Vedda expects an increase in bond prices in the US and Eurozone, leading to a decline in yields [1] - Weak US labor market data may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider early interest rate cuts, but it is premature to claim that US Treasuries have lost their appeal to international investors [1] - Ongoing uncertainties from US-Russia tensions and trade conflicts may lead the European Central Bank to further reduce interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is described as "cautiously optimistic in a high-risk era," with a more balanced distribution of leading stocks compared to previous years [1] - Despite high valuations in the US stock market, the performance of companies outside the technology and financial sectors in the S&P 500 may be disappointing [1] - High valuations in both stocks and corporate bonds indicate low tolerance for negative news, suggesting that asset prices could decline rapidly upon adverse developments [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The US economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but rising tariffs may pressure consumer spending, a key growth driver [1][2] - The year-on-year growth rate in the US is expected to slow to 1.6% by the end of the year, remaining below trend levels through 2026 [2] - Inflation in the US is rising due to tariffs affecting prices, while Asian economies (excluding Japan) face slowing inflation due to weak growth and low oil prices [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year, depending on inflation data, with most Asian central banks expected to ease policies in a low inflation environment [2] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3% to 5% over the next 6 to 9 months, which may lead to a moderate appreciation of most Asian currencies [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company prefers emerging markets and Asian stocks over the US market due to more attractive valuations and macroeconomic conditions [1][5] - US high-yield bonds remain attractive with a yield of 7%, while emerging market bonds offer upside potential due to dollar depreciation [1][5] - US Treasury bonds are viewed positively as they provide yield opportunities and can hedge against potential risks from slowing US economic growth [1][5] Group 4: Asset Allocation - The company has adopted a more positive tactical stance on risk assets, particularly stocks and credit, as the impact of tariffs is assessed to be less severe than previously thought [4] - Key indicators such as global purchasing managers' index and corporate earnings forecasts continue to support a positive short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Investment Officer of Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) maintains the view that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once before the end of the year, with confidence in such a move likely to be established only after October [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been firm in his stance, emphasizing that decisions will depend on data and not providing any hints regarding the timing of interest rate cuts [1] - Despite acknowledging a slowdown in economic growth and facing significant dissent within the committee, Powell's clear position indicates that he will not ease policy until inflation data shows a clear and sustained decline to target levels [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment and inflation data suggest early signs of economic slowdown and cost transmission to consumer goods [1] - A key variable affecting the economic outlook is tariffs, with the actual implementation of new tariffs delayed until August 1, which will subsequently delay the price transmission process [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Powell is expected to require complete economic reports for August and September to assess whether the price increases triggered by tariffs are a one-time shock or indicative of more persistent long-term inflation expectations [1] - Consequently, the Federal Reserve is likely to lack sufficient data confidence to initiate a rate-cutting cycle before the October meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a cautious approach, as the impact of tariffs has a lagging effect that has not yet fully manifested [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from approximately 65% before the meeting to around 45% afterward, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The Fed is expected to wait for two complete rounds of employment and inflation data before making further decisions, particularly regarding the transmission of commodity price pressures [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The outlook for rate cuts in 2023 has moderated, with expectations for 1-2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, and the first potential cut could occur in the fourth quarter [1] - Concerns about dollar credit risk and capital market performance may limit political pressures on the Fed, including potential calls for tariff adjustments or dismissing Fed Chair Powell [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson believes that the S&P 500 index could rise to 7200 points by mid-next year, representing a potential increase of 12.5% from current levels [1] Earnings and Valuation - The forecast for the S&P 500 index is based on an expected earnings per share (EPS) of $319 for its constituent stocks and a target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.5 [1] - Wilson anticipates a stable foundation for corporate earnings growth, with an average growth rate expected to be between 10% and 20% [1] Market Conditions - The current market cycle is described as non-traditional, supported by factors such as positive operating leverage, the application of artificial intelligence, a weak dollar, tax savings, strong income growth, sustained demand, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Wilson expresses confidence that the S&P 500 index will align with this optimistic forecast and recommends buying quality stocks on dips [1] Sector Outlook - Wilson maintains his previous view that industrial stocks will be among the biggest beneficiaries of the upcoming market rally [1]