新华社北京4月23日电 经济知识问答｜为什么市场抛售会推高美债收益率 新华社记者宿亮 曹筱凡 2024财年，美国政府的利息支出已超过1万亿美元，占GDP约4%，占全年财政收入比例超过22%，也就 是说政府收入近四分之一要拿去付利息。这种背景下，美国政府信用动摇导致票面利率不断提高，会继 续推高美国财政负担。 当美国政府信用动摇时，美国联邦储备委员会作为美债的"最后保险人"会出资增持美债，相当于向市场 增发美元，这实际上就是"财政赤字货币化"。 债券价格和收益率的关系涉及几个概念：发行价、到期价、市场价、票面利率。 根据圣路易斯联储银行的数据，截至2024年第四季度，美联储持有的美国政府债务总额为4.6万亿美 元。这笔钱是美联储和美国联邦政府通过左手倒右手"制造"出来的现金。从2019年开始，美联储持有的 美债规模显著增长，显示近年来美联储不得不增发更多货币才能稳定美债收益率，由此不断削弱美元信 用。（完） 举例来说，一张债券发行价为100美元，到期价为105美元，那么票面利率就是5%。不过，这个5%的票 面利率并不等于收益率，因为债券可以上市交易，在到期前根据供求关系涨价、降价。交易过程中，如 果购买者以10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a better long-term investment compared to holding US dollars, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [2][3][15]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal measures such as issuing debt, which leads to central banks purchasing government bonds and consequently results in monetary expansion [6][9]. - The US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has resulted in significant debt burdens, with over 60% of its total assets being US Treasury bonds [7][9]. - The general trend of currency devaluation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating by over 90% since the Bretton Woods system collapsed [11][15]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation has increased, particularly as central banks have been accumulating gold due to concerns over the US dollar's credibility [23][25]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by approximately 12.76 tons in March 2025, continuing a trend of accumulation that has seen a total increase of about 56.93 tons since 2024 [25][26]. - Historical data shows that gold prices have experienced significant increases during periods of economic uncertainty, with a notable rise of nearly 30% in the first four months of 2025 [32]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin, while often touted as a potential replacement for gold, has shown extreme volatility, with prices fluctuating from $742 in November 2016 to a peak of $69,000 in November 2021, highlighting its instability as a currency [17][18]. - Unlike gold, which has a long-standing history as a stable store of value, Bitcoin lacks the same level of stability and is viewed more as a speculative asset [18][20]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article suggests that the world is entering a phase of low growth and high volatility, where gold serves as an appropriate investment due to its properties of value preservation and risk mitigation [21][22]. - The ongoing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate the demand for gold as a safe haven asset [22][32].

2016年4月初，我刚开设微信公众号不久，便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多，人民币则经历了从 2005-14年的九年升值之后开始贬值，故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗？我对 于一致预期通常都持怀疑态度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单：各国为了应对经 济不振的难题，基本采取了超发货币的对策，美国也不例外，即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩，谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白，又奋 笔疾书，写了 《再论换美元不如买黄金》 ，以为可以平息争论，谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 ：李总，历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊，如何确定目前熊市已经走完？还有一个数据是，实物 投资金需求量和金价走势拟合度较高，一季度金价大涨，但实物投资金需求改善不大，那是否预示着金价 上涨是不可持续的？ 留言 2 ：黄金只有消费属性，与货币没有关系了，只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么？ 留言 3 ：为何巴菲特不买黄金？因为黄金不能下崽，没有利息，持有它只有成本，其盈利全靠高价卖给别 人。美国经济已经复苏，再来一个科技革命，黄金会休息十年。 留言 4 ： ...

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 2016 年 4 月初，我刚开设微信公众号不久，便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多，人民币则经历了从2005-14年的 九年升值之后开始贬值，故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗？我对于一致预期通常都持怀疑态 度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单：各国为了应对经济不振的难题，基本采取了超发货币的对 策，美国也不例外，即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩，谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白，又奋笔疾书，写了 《 再论换美元不如买黄金 》，以为可以平息争论，谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 ：李总，历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊，如何确定目前熊市已经走完？还有一个数据是，实物投资金需求量和金价走势拟合 度较，一季度金价大涨，但实物投资金需求改善不大，那是否预示着金价上涨是不可持续的？ 留言 2 ：黄金只有消费属性，与货币没有关系了，只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么？ 留言 3 ：为何巴菲特不买黄金？因为黄金不能下崽，没有利息，持有它只有成本，其盈利全靠高价卖给别人。美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a more reliable long-term investment compared to the US dollar, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal debt issuance and central bank bond purchases, leading to monetary expansion [3][4]. - The US Federal Reserve holds over 60% of its total assets in US Treasury bonds, while Japan's central bank holds an even larger proportion, indicating significant reliance on debt to manage economic imbalances [4]. - The general trend of currency depreciation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating over 90% since the Bretton Woods system ended [7][10]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with increasing demand for gold as a natural monetary asset due to concerns over paper currency inflation [10][18]. - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves significantly, with China's reserves rising from 2,235.40 tons at the beginning of 2024 to 2,279.57 tons by the end of the year, reflecting a trend of accumulating gold as a safeguard against economic uncertainty [19][20]. - The price of gold has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of nearly 30% in just four months, driven by fears regarding the stability of the US dollar and rising debt levels [22][23]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin is characterized by extreme volatility, making it less stable as a currency compared to gold, which has maintained its monetary properties for over three millennia [12][13]. - The historical performance of gold shows significant long-term appreciation, contrasting with Bitcoin's erratic price movements, which raises questions about its viability as a stable currency [12][23]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights a trend of low growth and high volatility in the global economy, suggesting that gold is an appropriate investment during such turbulent times [17][18]. - The increasing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate risks, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [18][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of demand driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, alongside a gradual improvement in the overall economic environment [2][4]. - It highlights the ongoing adjustments in supply-side policies, particularly in the steel industry, which are expected to enhance the long-term fundamentals of steel products [4][12]. - The report identifies several undervalued companies within the industry that are likely to benefit from the anticipated recovery in demand and supply-side reforms [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Steel Index closed at 1,658.89 points, up 1.36%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.23 percentage points, ranking 19th among 30 CITIC primary sectors [1][68]. Supply Dynamics - Daily average pig iron production increased by 0.1 million tons to 230.7 million tons, indicating a slight uptick in supply amid improving demand [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 steel mills remained stable at 86.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points [16]. Inventory Trends - Total steel inventory decreased by 1.6% week-on-week, with social inventory down 25.0% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply situation [22][26]. Demand Recovery - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 883.9 million tons, up 3.6% week-on-week and 6.4% year-on-year, with rebar consumption showing a notable increase [40][34]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore prices strengthened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $103.5 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [48]. Price and Profitability - Steel spot prices rose, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index at 126.5, up 0.3% week-on-week, while the gross profit margins for long-process steel products slightly declined [55][54]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - New Steel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - Emerging Foundry (Hold) [8].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 03 15 年 月 日 钢铁 发动消费引擎提振需求 行情回顾（3.10-3.14）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,658.89 点，上涨 1.36%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.23pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 19 位。 分析师 高亢 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场继续上涨，结构上顺周期板块表现突出。与此同时商品市 场黄金突破了 3000 美元重要关口，在金融属性和商品属性双重加持下，有色 金属表现亮眼，金融属性不足的黑色金属则继续震荡。我们在此前的深度报告 《江河万古流》中指出，随着时间的推移美国政府债务似乎将越来越难寻觅到 大的承接主体，其旁氏的平衡十分脆弱。每年两万亿的财政赤字如果不能保证 能够及时融入更大的债务资金，则由央行买单的概率和紧迫性增加。新一轮财 政赤字货币化也许会超出市场的预期，实施后会加速美元的贬值，带来全球资 本大流动。同时货币周期的循环也将加速从信用货币向金属货币回归，其中作 为美元的对立面黄金等有色金属会最受青睐。黑色金属方面四季度至今政府 发债的速度非常快，同时财政存款余额还是下降的，说明资金使用情 ...