我问你个问题，你见过这么快变脸的吗？ 前脚刚说和中方签了中美框架协议，后脚就支持在国会搞一个针对中国的500%关税？这不是对着你笑，背地里下刀吗？ 6月30日，法新社一则消息炸了锅。美国共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆公开表示，特朗普亲口告诉他，准备推动一个法案，对购买俄罗斯石油 的国家——尤其是中国和印度，征收高达500%的关税。而且，特朗普已经点头，打算提前把法案拿出来表决。 我查了下这个法案的核心内容，确实够狠。就是想让中国、印度在买俄油这件事上彻底退场。他们的逻辑很直接：用关税压你，让你买不 起，逼你站队，不准再跟俄罗斯做生意。 可是我纳闷，美国真有资格说这话吗？ 俄乌战争从2022年打到美国口头上说支持和平，但背地里是啥姿态，谁还看不出来？军援一个接一个，武器一批接一批，嘴上说劝和，行 动上全是添油加柴。现在转头怪我们和俄罗斯做生意？ 先不说这个所谓的500%关税能不能通过，美国国内都还在争呢。更它背后的意图其实早就写在脸上了：美国自顾不暇，想靠这种外部施压 的方式，把自己从俄乌泥潭里捞出来，同时也顺手敲打一把中国。 美国这波操作，其实还有一层算盘我觉得特别值得说。 而中方虽然一开始受到冲击，但最终还是逐 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-30 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 视加拿大有限公司停止在加运营并关闭其加拿大业务，中加经贸关系有望再度转紧，或影响油菜籽对我国的出口。盘面来看，受加 菜籽下跌拖累，菜油震荡收跌，短期波动或加剧。 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加及加美贸易争端走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价 ...

当地时间6月27日，法国总统马克龙表示，法国不能接受一项与自身利益不对等的关税协议。他强调， 法国"必须用尽一切手段应对美国的关税措施"，并支持与美国就关税问题达成"快速、务实"的解决方 案。马克龙指出，理想的关税协议应是"零关税对零关税"，以实现公平互利的贸易关系。马克龙称，如 果美国维持10%的关税，欧洲将不得不对美国产业施加等值的回应措施，以维护欧盟的经济利益。（央 视新闻） ...

今天郑棉继续上涨，国内棉花成交一般，基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交依旧偏清谈，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,下游订 单仍然不佳。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5丹底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国 内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万吨。进口持续偏少，也导致国产棉消化进度偏快，虽然库存偏低给 与价格支撑，但需求持续偏弱，再加上中美贸易关系仍不明朗，短期高度或仍然受限。操作上暂时观望或逢低做多为主。 (白糖) | 《八 国控期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月26日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and its growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season increases the demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation, and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds to the supply increment. The market price is under pressure, and the futures price shows a weak performance [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The cost of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market, but the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as international oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9482 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2550 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 711.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 5.5 Canadian dollars), and that of the active contract of rapeseed is 4947 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 78 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 245 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan) [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 328,197 lots (down 17,063 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 600,032 lots (up 49,071 lots). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 23,914 lots (down 1,157 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 19,928 lots (down 6,809 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and that for rapeseed meal is 22,685 (down 1,329) [2]. 现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5133.35 yuan/ton (up 31.96 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 204 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 120 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan). The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1470 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan). The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.56 million tons (up 4.32 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons), the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.26% (down 4.83 percentage points) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.2 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.01 million tons (down 0.54 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 63.05 million tons (up 2.05 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.83 million tons (down 0.41 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.2 million tons (down 0.1 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.8 million tons (down 0.7 million tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons (down 0.56 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 26.64 million tons (down 1.132 million tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons (down 0.87 million tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 416.7 billion yuan (down 6.8 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.78% (down 0.15 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 20.77% (down 0.16 percentage points). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.11% (down 0.23 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 15.1% (down 0.24 percentage points) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.12% (up 0.69 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.61% (up 0.04 percentage points). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.37% (down 0.09 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.1% (down 0.01 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - On June 25, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to tight old - crop supply and bullish technical signals. The July contract rose 4.40 Canadian dollars to 697.80 Canadian dollars/ton, and the November contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 714.60 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13625 | 40 | 47,727 | -5162 | 168,678 | 5130 | | CF05合约 | 13605 | 50 | 943 | 265 | 5,983 | 264 | | CF09合约 | 13645 | 35 | 234,985 | -9877 | 560,112 | 18170 | | CY01合约 | 19990 | 120 | 13 | 9 | 46 | 7 | | CY05合约 | 20055 | 1505 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | CY09合约 | 19995 | 90 | 9169 ...

Group 1 - The main contract of rapeseed meal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2581.00 yuan, with a drop of 2.71% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future market trends of rapeseed meal, with 中辉期货 suggesting cautious short selling, 瑞达期货 indicating a general maintenance of fluctuations, and 方正中期期货 predicting short-term price oscillations [2][3][4] Group 2 - 中辉期货 notes that the rapeseed meal market is currently stable, with a basis quote in the range of 120-130 yuan/ton, and emphasizes the importance of managing positions and targets due to limited new supply [2] - 瑞达期货 highlights that the increase in oil factory operating rates due to the arrival of imported soybeans is putting pressure on the rapeseed meal market, while the demand for rapeseed meal is supported by the peak season for aquaculture [3] - 方正中期期货 points out that the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is decreasing, and there is an expectation of increased production for the new season, while also noting the pressure from soybean meal prices [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 持货商继续低价清库 铜价仍维持震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-24，沪铜主力合约开于 78340元/吨，收于 78640元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,410元/吨，收于 78,470 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.04%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯， 昨日日内采销情绪均有所回升，主因持货商继续低价清库令升水持续走跌，部分低价货源已经降低 至贴水出货。早盘盘初持货商报主流平水铜升水70元/吨，好铜升水100元/吨，随后迅速降价至升水40-80元/吨。此 时市场成交仍处于下游低价还盘状态。日内部分持货商有清库需求，积极甩货，平水附近成交低价货源，随后降 至贴水10元/吨，市场整体成交重心走弱。但日内非注册货源较少，成交贴水70-贴水40元/吨。目前季度末清库与 资金需求仍存，预计今日现货升水仍有继续走跌的可能。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美联储主席鲍威尔近期称，目前政策处于有利位置，可以观望等待再考虑利率调整。不过美联 储内部似乎仍存分歧。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，目前没有必要降息，预计今年晚 ...

另一个因素是AI。AI的普及在全球范围内已经取得巨大进展，这是一个不容忽视的重大机遇。世界经济论坛每季度或每年都 会对首席经济学家进行调查，最新一期首席经济学家调查结果显示，大约40%的首席经济学家预计未来5到10年AI可能会推动 全球经济增长5%，大约32%受访者预计将推动全球经济增长5%至10%。 证券时报记者：当前全球经济面临通胀压力、供应链重构、地缘冲突等多重挑战，您认为2025年全球经济复苏的核心驱动力是 什么？ 萨迪娅·扎希迪： 人们很容易只关注风险，而忽视经济如何复苏。我认为，推动全球经济复苏的其中一个因素是贸易关系的重 建。世界上某一个地区如果外贸受到冲击，某种程度上可能会为新兴市场和发展中经济体创造机遇，促使各国开始重新思考彼 此之间的贸易关系。可以看到，各国制定双边贸易协定、区域贸易协定，以及全球南方国家之间的跨境投资的兴趣正在不断上 升。 当前，全球经济形势不断变化，各项挑战相互交织。与此同时，人工智能（AI）等带来的技术变革层出不穷，变局之中亦有 机遇。在此背景下召开的世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（以下简称"2025夏季达沃斯论坛"）聚焦重要的新兴市场，并重 点关注中国，探讨新时代 ...