Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

海关总署：今年上半年，中国对美国进出口总值同比下降9.3%。以人民币计价对美国出口同比下降9.9%，自美国进口下降7.7%。近期中美贸易有所回升。目前中美双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。希望美国继续同中方相向而行。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):海关总署：中国6月的进出口规模3.85万亿元，增长5.2%，规模是历史上月度进出口的第二高位。其中，出口2.34万亿元，增长7.2%，增长比较快的有，电子元件、船舶等；进口1.51万亿元，增长2.3%，增长比较快的有，自动数据处理设备的零附件、干鲜瓜果等。 ...

海关总署：中国6月的进出口规模3.85万亿元，增长5.2%，规模是历史上月度进出口的第二高位。其中，出口2.34万亿元，增长7.2%，增长比较快的有，电子元件、船舶等；进口1.51万亿元，增长2.3%，增长比较快的有，自动数据处理设备的零附件、干鲜瓜果等。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):海关总署：今年上半年，中国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元，同比增长2.9%。其中，出口13万亿元，历史同期首次突破13万亿元，增长7.2%；进口8.79万亿元，下降2.7%。进入6月份，进出口、出口、进口同比全部实现正增长，且增速都在回升。 ...

Trade Performance - China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a 2.9% year-over-year increase [1] - Exports hit a record high of 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-over-year [1] - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, a 2.7% year-over-year decrease [1] Growth Trend - In June, imports and exports all achieved positive year-over-year growth, with accelerating growth rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the industry investment rating system, "Recommend" indicates that the industry index is expected to rise more than 5% above the benchmark index in the next 3 - 6 months, "Neutral" means the industry index is expected to move within -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index in the same period, and "Avoid" suggests the industry index is expected to fall more than 5% below the benchmark index [58][62]. 2. Core Views of the Report In the fourth week of June, the real estate sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage, investment and construction demand remained weak, port container throughput increased marginally, and overall economic momentum was slightly stronger than the previous week. In terms of inflation, the decline in pork prices widened while the decline in food prices narrowed. For exports, the increase in CCFI narrowed, SCFI continued to fall, and North American route freight rates continued to decline. In industry, the operating rates mostly rebounded, coal prices rose slightly due to high - temperature weather in summer, and industrial product prices mostly continued to decline. In investment, cement demand was suppressed by rainfall and floods in the South, leading to an expanded decline in cement prices. Regarding real estate, near the end of the quarter, both new and second - hand housing sales increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. For the bond market, the year - on - year increase in port containers in June narrowed and was weaker than the performance in April - May. The "rush to export" momentum weakened marginally, and the export growth rate in June might decline. With the decline in the profit and revenue growth rates of industrial enterprises in May, the necessity of boosting domestic demand increased relatively. The bond market might enter a policy waiting period in July, focusing on the introduction of incremental policies around the Politburo meeting in July [4][39][40]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - related: Food Price Decline Narrows - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.33% week - on - week, and the decline widened. Vegetable prices increased by 0.1% week - on - week, while fruit prices decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.12% and 0.14% respectively week - on - week, and the decline in food prices narrowed [10]. 3.2 Import and Export - related: SCFI Index Continues to Decline - The overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, but the freight rates of ocean routes showed differentiation. The CCFI index increased by 2.0% week - on - week, while the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week and continued to weaken. In North America, transport demand remained stable, and market freight rates continued to decline. From June 16th to 22nd, port container throughput and cargo throughput increased by 5.9% and 5.6% week - on - week respectively, ending the decline. However, the year - on - year average of single - week data since June was 2.2% and 0.8% respectively, significantly narrowing compared with May [12]. 3.3 Industry - related: Operating Rates Mostly Rebound, Coal Prices Rise Slightly - The price of thermal coal increased marginally. The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.2% week - on - week. Due to high - temperature weather, electricity consumption by residents increased, and downstream power plant loads rose significantly, leading to an increase in coal consumption. At the end of the month, production cuts in coal - producing areas increased, supply tightened, and the peak coal - using season began, driving up coal prices. - The decline in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar decreased by 0.73% week - on - week. In the off - season, supply increased while demand was weak, and steel prices remained weak. - Copper prices increased marginally. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 1.0% respectively week - on - week. The spot market was in an off - season trading situation, and downstream restocking was mainly for rigid demand, limiting the elasticity of copper prices. - The spot trading of glass was dull. The overall price remained in a weak consolidation state, and downstream enterprises mainly focused on digesting inventory [19][24]. 3.4 Investment - related: Real Estate Sales Enter the End - of - Quarter Sprint - The decline in cement prices slightly expanded. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 1.7% week - on - week. Construction demand was weakened by rainfall in the South and floods in some areas, and cement prices generally declined. - New home sales in 30 cities continued to rise. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 2554,000 square meters, a 41.3% week - on - week increase. Developers concentrated on launching new projects in late June, and new home sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage. - Second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 17 cities was 2208,000 square meters, a 5.3% week - on - week increase [28][34]. 3.5 Consumption: Supply Concerns Eased, Crude Oil Prices Declined - From June 1st to 22nd, the year - on - year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded. The year - on - year increase was 24% (the full - month year - on - year increase in May was 13%), and it increased by 8% compared with the previous month. From June 16th to 22nd, the year - on - year and week - on - week increases were 30% and 42% respectively, continuing to strengthen compared with the previous week. - Crude oil prices declined significantly. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 12.0% and 11.3% respectively week - on - week. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran eased the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and market concerns about the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were significantly alleviated, suppressing oil prices [35].

Group 1 - The funding environment remains loose, with interest rates dropping below the 1.4% policy rate level, supported by weak inflation and trade data [1][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to a net injection of 200 billion yuan in June, ensuring ample liquidity for government bond issuance and maturing interbank certificates of deposit [1][10] - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.64% over the week, indicating a flattening of the yield curve [1][5] Group 2 - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, where both sides reached a framework agreement to implement the consensus from the June 5 call between the two heads of state [1][11] - Despite improved market confidence, uncertainties regarding demand and the external trade environment may still disrupt economic growth [1][11] - The bond market fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with ongoing attention needed on international situations, second-quarter funding changes, and government debt supply impacts [1][11] Group 3 - The bond market saw a total issuance of 51 bonds amounting to 941.13 billion yuan last week, including 65.78 billion yuan in government bonds [5][6] - For the upcoming week, 68 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 686.75 billion yuan, with 39 billion yuan in government bonds [6] - The yield curve for government bonds showed a downward trend across various maturities, with notable decreases in the long-term bonds [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of June, Sino-US economic and trade negotiations further clarified the agreement framework, releasing positive macro signals. Meanwhile, the impact of heavy precipitation expanded, leading to a marginal decline in the apparent demand for construction-related investment products. In terms of inflation, the decline in food prices continued to widen. In terms of exports, affected by the restoration of North American route capacity and the decline in freight rates, the SCFI index decreased week-on-week this week, while the overall demand in the container shipping market remained stable. In the industrial sector, influenced by supply contraction regulation and expectations, the prices of some industrial products slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the support of the demand side for the sustainability of price increases. In terms of investment, the impact of the rainy season in the South continued to expand this week, resulting in a slowdown in the release of downstream investment demand, and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline week-on-week. In the real estate sector, after the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival ended, the transactions of new and second-hand houses increased week-on-week this week, and the trading sentiment improved [4][38]. - For the bond market, the current endogenous economic momentum remains stable, with limited short-term marginal changes. The market may focus more on the rhythm and intensity of the pro-growth policies in the third quarter. Policy expectation games may bring trading opportunities. The year-on-year export growth rate in May slowed down compared with April. The data in May did not fully reflect the benefits of the easing of negotiations due to the impact of the tariff incident in the first half of the month. From a high-frequency perspective, the year-on-year growth rate of port container throughput in early June continued to narrow, and it decreased week-on-week compared with the last week of May. The export elasticity brought about by "rush exports" needs further observation. Domestically, it is the traditional off-season in the second quarter, and there are few fundamental increments, making it difficult to provide trend guidance for the bond market in the short term. The market may focus more on the future policy implementation methods and rhythm, including whether additional consumption subsidies will be added and the implementation time of policy-based financial instruments. Considering the slow endogenous economic momentum in the second quarter, a new batch of pro-growth policies in the third quarter is expected to be deployed more quickly. Around the middle of the year, attention can be paid to the trading opportunities brought about by policy expectation games and potential bond market fluctuations [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (June 9 - June 13), the average wholesale price of pork nationwide announced by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with an expanding decline. The vegetable price decreased by 0.09% week-on-week, turning from an increase to a decrease. This week, the 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 0.45% and 0.51% week-on-week respectively, indicating a wider decline in food prices [10]. Import and Export-related - The shipping market declined from its high this week, with different trends among routes. The CCFI index increased by 7.6% week-on-week, while the SCFI decreased by 6.8% week-on-week, ending a four-week upward trend. According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the export container shipping market declined after continuous increases this week, with different trends among routes. Among them, the freight rate of the Shanghai Port to European basic ports route increased by 10.6% week-on-week. The transportation demand on the North American route was stable this week, but the supply of shipping capacity continued to increase, alleviating the previous tight cabin situation and causing the freight rate to decline from its high. In terms of port data, in the week from June 2 to June 8, the port's container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 1.9% and 7.9% week-on-week respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and 0.8% respectively. The week-on-week decline expanded, and the year-on-year increase narrowed. Overall, the port operation rhythm slowed down marginally [13]. - The increase in the BDI index expanded. This week, the average value of the BDI index increased by 18.2% week-on-week, and the CDFI index increased by 3.2% week-on-week. The increase in the number of Indonesian coal futures contracts for end-of-month loading in the Pacific market and the improvement in demand drove up the freight rate. The stable and increasing demand for South American grain also supported the freight rate, pushing the BDI to rise rapidly [13]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.04% week-on-week, compared with a 0.29% decrease the previous week, indicating a continued weak coal price. In terms of demand, due to high temperatures in many places, the residential electricity load generally increased, and the downstream replenishment demand continued to be released. However, the flood season in the South and the increase in hydropower squeezed some thermal power demand, resulting in a limited increase in the daily consumption of terminal power plants. In terms of price, although the downstream replenishment demand was released, it was mainly fulfilled through long-term contracts, so the port coal price was not significantly boosted [17]. - The price of rebar increased week-on-week. This week, the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.4% week-on-week, compared with a 0.65% decrease the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.4%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a continued reduction in production. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.7% week-on-week, compared with a 8.1% decrease the previous week, continuing to decline marginally. During the traditional off-season for steel consumption, affected by heavy precipitation in the South and other factors, the construction demand slowed down marginally. The supply contraction speed was relatively slower than the demand decline, so the steel price continued to be slightly under pressure [17]. - The increase in copper prices expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.7% and 0.3% week-on-week respectively, continuing to rise. Positive signals were released during the Sino-US negotiation in London this week, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, supporting the continued rise of copper prices [21]. - The spot price of glass remained basically stable. This week, affected by the precipitation weather, the market procurement demand was average. Some local manufacturers reduced prices to clear inventory, and market sentiment became more cautious. However, the current supply and demand were basically balanced, and there was still support from rigid demand, so most enterprises kept their quotes stable [21]. Investment-related - The cement price turned from a decline to an increase, mainly driven by the expected supply contraction in East China. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 1.1% week-on-week, compared with a 1.1% decrease the previous week. The implementation of the kiln shutdown plan by cement enterprises in June, coupled with the increase in clinker prices, drove up the cement prices in some downstream regions. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, with the increasing rainy weather, construction was relatively restricted, and the support of demand for price increases needs further observation [25]. - The sales of new houses in 30 cities showed marginal improvement. From last Friday to this Thursday (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.758 million square meters, an increase of 9.5% week-on-week and 10.5% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the sales momentum of new houses recovered marginally [28]. - The transaction of second-hand houses increased week-on-week and turned positive year-on-year. This week (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities was 2.013 million square meters, an increase of 30.1% week-on-week and 23.3% year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the seasonal sales rush as the end of the half-year approaches [28]. Consumption - The year-on-year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded in early June. From June 1 to June 8, passenger car retail sales increased by 19% year-on-year (the full-month year-on-year increase in May was 13%), and decreased by 12% month-on-month [33]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rose rapidly. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 11.7% and 13.0% week-on-week respectively, showing a strong upward trend. This week, positive signals from Sino-US negotiations, tightened US sanctions on Iran, and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East may have driven up oil prices [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew 67.17 billion yuan last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. - In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow. After the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, the growth rate accelerated significantly. Despite having two fewer working days year - on - year, imports and exports and exports increased by 2.7% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively. The total value of China - US imports and exports was 285.51 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.67%, and the decline was 0.58 percentage points narrower than in April. Citigroup postponed its forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and expects three interest rate cuts of 75 basis points this year, revised from the previous forecast of 100 basis points [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow, and the growth rate accelerated after the China - US economic and trade high - level talks. Citigroup postponed the forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and revised the expected interest rate cut amount [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew funds. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The weekly price increases of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.18%, and 0.31% respectively [6]. 4. Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread widened [9]. 5. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis narrowed [13][14]. 7. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on June 3, and medium - to - long - term yields decreased [19].

回踩入场，最怕的就是真反转；突破入场，最怕的就是假突破。 在顺大势下，这些担心的"真反 转"和"假突破"，都已经变为小概率事件。我们不能为小概率事件缩手缩脚，而要为大概率系统严格执 行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | | (2025.06.09) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 量高利率 | 变化 | 成义中 (亿 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.42 | 8 | 11/2 | 2. 00 | 115 | 67710. 16 | 213. 67 | 91.51 | | R007 | 1.54 | -1 | Non/ 1 | 2. 05 | 0 | 5248. 91 | -894. 45 | 7.09 | | R014 | 1.59 | -1 | 1 /VI | 2. 00 | 218 | 759. 37 | 115. 90 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2506） IH主力合约（2506） IC主力合约（2506） | 3852.0 2674.0 5723.6 | +8.2↑ IF次主力合约（2509） -0.4↓ IH次主力合约（2509） +34.8↑ IC次主力合约（2509） | 3776.0 2637.8 5530.6 | +5.8↑ -0.2↓ +30.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2506） | 6101.6 | +49.8↑ IM次主力合约（2509） | 5841.0 | +47.2↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1178.0 | +9.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1871.6 | +25.2↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 378.0 | +12.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3049.6 | +34.4↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2249.6 | +38.0↑ IM ...