2025.09.12 本文字数：1425，阅读时长大约2分钟 在美国经济数据公布前，金价曾一度下跌多达0.6%。随着数据出炉，价格迅速扭转跌势并刷新高位。 独立金属交易员黄泰（Tai Wong）评论称："上周初请失业金人数大幅攀升至26.3万，创三年来新高， 而核心CPI环比增幅仍维持在0.3%的高位，这些因素共同'拯救'了黄金。"他补充道，尽管短期走势显示 部分买家出现疲态，但未来几个月黄金前景依然具有建设性，大幅回调的空间有限。 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 9月12日，现货黄金一度升至3674.27美元/盎司，创下新的历史纪录，并首次突破1980年1月21日创下的 850美元/盎司峰值（按通胀调整约为3590美元）。本月以来金价累计上涨约5%，今年以来涨幅已接近 40%。市场普遍认为，这一突破再次凸显黄金在持续的宏观不确定性中作为避险资产的地位。 经济降温加大宽松预期 近期公布的一系列数据表明，美国经济潜在动能正在降温。8月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.9%，为七个月来最大涨幅；生产者价格指数（PPI）意外下滑，反映服务业利润承压和商品价格疲 软。与此同时，8月非农新增就业仅2.2万人，失业率升至4 ...

2025.09. 12 本文字数：1425，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 封图 | AI生成 9月12日，现货黄金一度升至3674.27美元/盎司，创下新的历史纪录，并首次突破1980年1月21日创 下的850美元/盎司峰值（按通胀调整约为3590美元）。本月以来金价累计上涨约5%，今年以来涨幅 已接近40%。市场普遍认为，这一突破再次凸显黄金在持续的宏观不确定性中作为避险资产的地 位。 在美国经济数据公布前，金价曾一度下跌多达0.6%。随着数据出炉，价格迅速扭转跌势并刷新高 位。独立金属交易员黄泰（Tai Wong）评论称："上周初请失业金人数大幅攀升至26.3万，创三年来 新高，而核心CPI环比增幅仍维持在0.3%的高位，这些因素共同'拯救'了黄金。"他补充道，尽管短 期走势显示部分买家出现疲态，但未来几个月黄金前景依然具有建设性，大幅回调的空间有限。 经济降温加大宽松预期 近期公布的一系列数据表明，美国经济潜在动能正在降温。8月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.9%，为七个月来最大涨幅；生产者价格指数（PPI）意外下滑，反映服务业利润承压和商品价格 疲软。与此同时，8月非农新增就业 ...

Group 1 - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increases in gold, commodities, and value stocks [1][2] - The S&P 500 increased by 1.1%, the DJ Market Neutral Value index rose by 6.5%, gold prices went up by 4.9%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index increased by 3.5% during the period from August 6 to September 3 [1][4] - The yield curve between 5-year and 30-year Treasury bonds steepened by 19.5 basis points, indicating market expectations of a more dovish policy from the Federal Reserve if its independence is compromised [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the lagging nature of news and the market's tendency to "run ahead," suggesting that traders often react to anticipated news rather than waiting for confirmation [3][7] - The concept of "buy the rumor, sell the news" is highlighted as a common trading strategy, particularly in the context of the U.S. stock market, where new positive information is quickly reflected in stock prices [7] - The article discusses the importance of understanding trading behaviors and the role of institutional investors in shaping market movements, particularly during periods of volatility [9][12] Group 3 - The article suggests that retail investors often misinterpret market signals and may fall victim to "chasing highs" without understanding the underlying trading dynamics [9][13] - It introduces the idea of using quantitative analysis to better understand market movements and trading behaviors, which can help retail investors avoid losses [14][15] - The conclusion emphasizes that true market success comes from understanding trading behaviors rather than merely reacting to news [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices driven by a weaker US dollar and market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, highlighting the growing demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold prices reached a high of $3,508.70 per ounce during Asian trading on September 2, surpassing the previous high set during the Trump administration's tariff policy [1] - Gold closed at $3,497 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 0.9% [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by President Trump's pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell and attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook, have contributed to rising gold prices [1] - David Wilson, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas, noted that increasing economic uncertainty makes gold more attractive, creating favorable conditions for price increases [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs reported that inflows into gold ETFs have become a significant source of demand supporting gold prices, predicting that spot gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2024 [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global central banks have been increasing their gold holdings since the beginning of 2023, nearly doubling gold prices [1] Group 4: Central Bank Trends - In 2024, gold has replaced the euro as the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks, following the US dollar, accounting for 20% of global official reserves [1] - Major gold purchasing countries include India, China, Turkey, and Poland, indicating a continuing trend of de-dollarization among multiple central banks [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold market has experienced a significant upward trend over the past decade, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1][2][4] - From 2015 to 2018, gold prices were suppressed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, but geopolitical events like Brexit led to a rebound in gold prices [1][2] - The period from 2019 to 2020 saw a surge in gold prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent monetary easing, with gold reaching a historical high of $2070 [1][2] Group 2 - From 2021 to 2025, geopolitical conflicts and the trend of "de-dollarization" are expected to push gold prices higher, with projections indicating gold could exceed $3000 by 2025 [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with global gold reserves dwindling and production costs rising, leading to a structural support for gold prices [3] Group 3 - Inflation hedging and asset allocation needs are increasing, with gold being favored in high inflation environments, showing a significant relative performance compared to equities [3] - The future outlook suggests that gold will continue to serve as a crucial risk hedging tool amid market volatility, with the potential for further price increases [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The current surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and monetary policy factors, marking a significant strengthening of gold's status as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts predict that gold prices may reach $4,000 in the coming years, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend in the gold market [1][10] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Dynamics - The anticipated shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the potential for interest rate cuts, is closely linked to the rising gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - The U.S. dollar has declined nearly 11% since January, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies, thereby boosting global demand for gold [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, contribute to increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty and risk [4][5] - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world is leading to a decline in trust between nations, which may sustain the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5] Group 4: Central Bank Strategies - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, are strategically increasing their gold reserves while reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" [6][7] - The World Gold Council indicates that central banks plan to increase the proportion of gold in their reserves over the next five years, signaling a long-term commitment to gold [7] Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - There is a notable increase in interest in gold among both institutional and retail investors, as evidenced by the rising holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, reflecting strong market demand [8] - The market outlook for gold remains optimistic, with expectations of prices fluctuating between $3,600 and $3,900 in the short to medium term, and the possibility of testing $4,000 by 2026 if current uncertainties persist [8] Group 6: Broader Financial Market Implications - The strong performance of gold is expected to have profound implications for global financial markets, including potential re-evaluations of asset allocation strategies by investors [9] - The ongoing rise in gold prices, coupled with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, may challenge the long-term dominance of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency [9]

Asia Pacific LM Strategy 2-Sep-25 Gold market outlook From excess to scarcity Emerging Markets Strategy Michael Loh AC michael.loh@jpmorgan.com JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising popularity of silver and gold as asset allocation options for ordinary people amid global inflation pressures, driven by supply-demand imbalances, safe-haven demand, and industrial revolution benefits [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 2 - The global silver market has experienced a continuous supply-demand imbalance for five years, with a projected shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2024 and 3,660 tons in 2025, driven by weak mining output and surging demand from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries [3]. - Increased geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have led to a surge in safe-haven investments, with silver becoming a new target for funds due to its lower price and greater elasticity compared to gold [4]. - The gold-silver ratio reached as high as 105:1, prompting market participants to view silver as undervalued, leading to increased investments in silver to align its price closer to gold [5]. - Gold is viewed as a "safe-haven" asset due to its monetary properties and stability, with central banks globally purchasing record amounts of gold, reinforcing its long-term value [6]. - Silver's industrial properties make it more sensitive to economic recovery, with demand driven by factors such as accelerated photovoltaic installations and manufacturing PMI rebounds, allowing it to hedge against inflation while capturing growth opportunities [8]. Group 3 - Data comparisons show that in March 2025, when U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, gold rose by 1.8% while silver only increased by 0.7%, indicating gold's dominant safe-haven role; conversely, in June, when manufacturing PMI improved, silver rose by 1.1% while gold only increased by 0.3%, highlighting silver's industrial strength [10]. - Recommendations for ordinary investors include diversifying their portfolios with a mix of gold and silver based on risk preferences, such as conservative (70% gold, 30% silver) or balanced (50% gold, 50% silver) allocations [10]. - Suggested investment tools include physical assets like gold and silver bars, ETFs for liquidity, and account trading for convenience, while cautioning against common pitfalls such as chasing high prices, ignoring storage costs, and making single-asset bets [10].

Market Performance - A-shares led global equity markets with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.85%[4] - The implied volatility of the 50ETF rose to 19.78%, indicating increased market uncertainty[4] - The Dow Jones reached a new high with a gain of 1.53%, while the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.58%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 1.43%, reflecting significant adjustments in the domestic bond market[4] - The negative correlation between stocks and bonds reached a historical high, highlighting the "see-saw effect" in market dynamics[4] Commodity Trends - International commodities showed strength, with Brent crude oil up by 2.14% and COMEX gold rising by 1.02%, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation hedging[4] - Domestic commodity prices generally declined, with the South China Commodity Index down by 0.44%[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.24%[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, focus on high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly in a low-risk environment[5] - In overseas equities, consider opportunities in interest-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar[5] - For A-shares, maintain an overweight position in technology growth sectors, particularly electronics and AI hardware[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]

从宏观层面看，地缘政治风险上升显著推高了白银和铂金的避险溢价。俄罗斯是铂族金属的重要出口国，俄 乌战争持续影响俄罗斯铂族金属的出口，同时中东局势动荡威胁霍尔木兹海峡等关键矿产运输通道，叠加美 欧对关键矿产的出口管制，限制了白银、铂金等战略资源流通。中国银行研究院研究员吴丹表示，地缘政治 冲突以及全球经济不确定性加剧了市场避险情绪，同时，特朗普频繁施压导致美联储降息预期升温、美元走 势承压，加剧了市场对供给中断的担忧，并触发囤货行为，进一步推高贵金属价格。 记者在北京多家贵金属交易场所探访了解到，近期贵金属价格出现了大幅上涨，销售也十分火热。北京天雅 珠宝城一家铂金专卖店的销售人员说，"今年以来铂金价格上涨明显，吸引了大量消费者来店里选购，线上直 播间也咨询不断"。此外，一些主营黄金饰品的店铺也在醒目位置开设了铂金专柜。现场观察显示，铂金硬度 高、不易氧化，颜色属于银灰色，制成的饰品以镶嵌钻石、彩宝的戒指为主，款式简约时尚，吸引了许多年 轻消费者。除了增售铂金产品，一些店铺还在展台里增加了500克和1000克规格的投资银条，并提供回收服 务。 贵金属零售市场火热的背后是铂金、白银的价格涨幅显著。上海黄金交易所公 ...