Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, the US economy showed a complex picture with a GDP decline of 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, marking the first quarterly negative growth in nearly three years [1] - The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in private consumption growth to 0.5%, the lowest in five years, along with reduced federal spending and increased imports [1] - Despite the decline, the revised GDP data indicated a total GDP of $7.49 trillion, maintaining the US's position as the world's largest economy, accounting for 26% of global GDP [1] Comparison with China - China's Q1 GDP reached approximately $4.44 trillion, maintaining its status as the second-largest economy, but the proportion of China's GDP to the US GDP fell to 59%, down from 77% in 2021 [1][3] - China's GDP growth was 5.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than the US's 2% growth, but the nominal GDP growth and GDP increment were lower than the US due to differing inflation levels [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The differing inflation levels between the US and China have a direct impact on GDP increments, with the US maintaining high interest rates while China has been lowering them [3] - As of March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4%, while China's CPI decreased by 0.1%, highlighting the contrasting price levels in both countries [3] Currency Exchange Rate Impact - The depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is a critical factor, with the average exchange rate in Q1 2025 at 7.176, leading to a reduction of approximately $500 billion in China's GDP when converted to dollars [5] - If the exchange rate had remained stable, China's GDP proportion could have risen back to around 60% [5] Statistical Methodology Differences - There are significant differences in GDP calculation methods between the two countries, with China using the production method and the US using the expenditure method, leading to discrepancies in reported GDP figures [7] - For instance, in Q1 2025, the US real estate sector contributed $943 billion to GDP, while China's contribution was only $360 billion, reflecting the US's highly financialized economy compared to China's manufacturing-driven economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's primary responsibilities are to monitor unemployment rates and inflation levels, rather than providing cheap financing for the federal government [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve focuses on economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation [1] - The role of the Federal Reserve is distinct from that of the federal government in terms of financing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict is expected to increase inflation levels in Israel and delay the central bank's interest rate cut cycle, with the first cut now anticipated to be postponed from September to November [1] Group 1 - The war's impact is projected to push inflation higher in Israel [1] - The central bank's timeline for interest rate cuts has been adjusted, with the first expected cut now moved to November instead of September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the commitment to restoring a sustainable 2% inflation level [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve aims to achieve a stable inflation rate, which is crucial for economic stability and growth [1] - Powell's statement indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy, focusing on long-term economic health rather than short-term gains [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation levels have consistently remained slightly above the target [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation trends to assess economic stability [1] - Powell's remarks suggest a cautious approach towards monetary policy adjustments in response to inflation [1] - The ongoing inflationary pressures may influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered after a series of domestic policies to stabilize the economy and the stock market. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. With the expected continuation of a loose capital environment and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [5]. - For precious metals, the weak US PPI data and employment data have increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting the prices of gold and silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - For various non - ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Generally, short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - environment, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [9][10][14]. - In the black building materials sector, steel products, iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and industrial silicon are all affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and cost. Most products are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21][24]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber, crude oil, methanol, urea, PVC, ethylene glycol, PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [33][39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean and rapeseed meal, oils and fats, sugar, and cotton are affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and policies. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [50][53][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.26%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1271.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount increased by 1.822 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate rose to 1.367%. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The TL main contract rose 0.07%, while T, TF, and TS main contracts fell. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [4][5]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 786.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.53% to 8787 yuan/kg. The weak US PPI and employment data increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 0.45% to 9690 US dollars/ton. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the processing fee is stabilizing. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 78200 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 0.12% to 2519 US dollars/ton. The short - term price is expected to continue to rebound, but the upward space is limited. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20200 - 20480 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2480 - 2540 US dollars/ton [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc smelter profits are rising. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased, and the decline of zinc prices has been repeated [11][12]. Lead - The downstream consumption of lead is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is expected that the lead price will continue to be weak [13]. Nickel - The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rebounds. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to be loose, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 US dollars/ton [15]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium has increased, and the inventory has risen slightly. It is expected that the contract will be weakly volatile. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract is 59500 - 60900 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel is expected to be slightly volatile in the short - term due to high inventory and weakening raw material prices [18]. Black Building Materials Steel Products - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a downward trend. The demand for steel products is weak, and the export volume has declined. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, demand recovery, and cost support [20]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. The supply has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased [21]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - term due to the lack of significant improvement in real - estate demand. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [22][23]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend since February. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side. The decline is due to factors such as weak commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction [24][25]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is in a downward trend. It is due to over - capacity and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips easily [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber price has fallen due to a poor macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [33][37]. Crude Oil - The WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. It is not recommended to short due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [39]. Methanol - The methanol price has rebounded weakly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [40]. Urea - The urea price has fallen due to high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile due to strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction [43]. PTA - The PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter a new de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure will be relieved in June, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned capacity expansion and weakening demand [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price is mainly stable with partial small declines. The near - month contract is expected to be volatile, and the far - month contract can be shorted on rallies [50]. Eggs - The egg price is mostly stable with partial weakening. The near - month contract can be shorted on rallies, and attention should be paid to the support of the far - month contract [51][52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price has fallen. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory pressure is postponed. The new - year US soybean may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range of the 09 contract [53][54]. Oils and Fats - The palm oil price has support due to low inventory in some regions, but it is still under pressure if the production recovers rapidly. It is expected to be volatile [55][57]. Sugar - The sugar price has fallen. The international supply tension may have passed, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [58]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The downstream start - up rate has not declined significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall commodity market is still in a downward trend [59].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is satisfied with the current inflation levels and agrees with President Lagarde that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Müller expresses contentment with current inflation levels [1] - Müller aligns with Lagarde's perspective on the nearing conclusion of the interest rate cut cycle [1]

贝莱德CEO芬克：关税措施可能在未来几个月内导致通胀水平上升。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that further escalation of trade tensions in the coming months will lead to economic growth and inflation levels falling below baseline forecasts [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's government is aggressively lowering rice prices, aiming to reduce the price of 5 kg of rice to 2000 yen, which is 47% lower than the latest price published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries[5] - As of May 30, the speculative net long position in yen has decreased to 164,000 contracts, an 8.4% drop from the peak in early May, marking five consecutive weeks of decline[10] - The US leading economic index fell to -4% in April, the lowest level since October of the previous year, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs may be less than expected[13] Group 2: Market Trends - Overseas investors net sold Japanese government bonds exceeding 1 trillion yen in May, totaling 1.6 trillion yen over four weeks[7][9] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 5.8%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating a significant excess return compared to domestic 10-year government bonds[19] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is 23.3, below the 16-year average, suggesting an increased attractiveness of stocks relative to fixed income assets[30] Group 3: Credit and Financing - As of May, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial bank loans in the US reached 3.9%, the highest since October 2023, supporting corporate output and potentially alleviating upward pressure on unemployment[16] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was -25 basis points as of May 30, indicating a loosening of the offshore dollar financing environment following the reduction of tariff impacts[25]