市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 06 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.96%，深成指收 涨 0.59%，创业板指收涨 0.39%。沪深两市成交额 15958.46 亿元。申 万行业方面，综合、银行、钢铁领涨，医药生物、计算机、建筑材料 领跌；概念板块方面，兵装重组、PEEK 材料、脑机接口概念涨幅居 前，华为盘古、仿制药一致性评价、Sora 概念跌幅居前。港股方面， 恒生指数收涨 0.68%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.73%；海外方面，美国三 大指数集体收跌，道指收跌 0.14%，标普 500 收跌 0.49%，纳指收跌 0.65%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》】《意见》 明确，从 2025 年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保 育教育费，不含伙食费、住宿费、杂费等。同时，民办幼儿园也可享 受与公办幼儿园"同等"减免水平，高出免除水平的部分可继续向在园 儿童家庭收取。国新办周四举 ...

加快推进新型工业化，离不开金融活水的润泽。 8月5日，中国人民银行等7部门发布《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》，聚焦新型工业化重大战略任务需要，提出18条针对性支持举 措。 意见明确了金融支持新型工业化的总体"时间表"：到2027年，支持制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展的金融体系基本成熟，服务适配性有 效增强。制造业企业有效信贷需求得到充分满足，制造业企业发行债券的户数和规模持续增长，股权融资水平显著提升。 坚持分类施策、有扶有控，围绕推动产业加快迈向中高端，意见勾勒出清晰的"路线图"—— 为支持制造业企业释放创新活力，意见提出优化金融政策工具，引入长期资金和发展耐心资本；为提升产业链供应链韧性，意见提出强化重 点企业金融服务；为支持加快建设现代化产业体系，意见提出优化传统制造业金融服务、提升科技金融质效、发挥绿色金融牵引作用、强化数字 金融赋能、深化产业链金融服务；为支持产业合理布局，意见提出提升产业转移金融服务灵活性、特色产业金融服务专业性、跨境金融服务便利 性…… "这些举措对照新型工业化的重点任务，坚持以产业需求牵引深化金融供给侧结构性改革，构建全覆盖、差异化、专业性金融服务体系，形 成金融支持新 ...

重要的消息有哪些 1．国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》，其中提出，免保育教育费对象。从2025 年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。对在教育部门批准设立的民办幼儿园就 读的适龄儿童，参照当地同类型公办幼儿园免除水平，相应减免保育教育费。财政部、教育部将统筹考 虑学龄人口变化、财力状况等因素，研究适时完善免费学前教育政策。西藏，四川、云南、甘肃、青海 四省涉藏州县，新疆喀什、和田、阿克苏、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜四地州等地区在园儿童继续执行现行政 策。 2．中国人民银行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》。其中提出，提升科技金 融质效，支持新兴产业培育壮大和未来产业前瞻布局。支持金融机构打造多元化接力式的科技金融服务 模式，扩大科技贷款投放，加大对科技创新债券投资承销力度。推广中小企业专精特新发展评价结果运 用，强化融资增信服务。全面推行"创新积分制"，规范发展知识产权质押贷款等业务。支持新一代信息 技术、基础软件和工业软件、智能（网联）汽车、新能源、新材料、高端装备、时空信息、商业航天、 生物医药、网络和数据安全等新兴产业符合条件的企业在多层次资本市场融资。推进投 ...

央视网消息：每天8点，央视网为您梳理24小时内发生在咱们身边的大小事儿。 ·中央财政下达农业防灾减灾和水利救灾资金10.15亿元。 ·民政部：将养老机构纳入优先救援对象，纳入本地区防汛物资总体储备及配备范围。 ·水利部实施跨流域洪水资源利用，有效缓解南四湖低水位形势。 ·国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》：免除公办幼儿园学前1年保教费。 ·7月份中国物流业景气指数为50.5%，业务总量保持扩张。 ·中国海警舰艇编队8月5日在我钓鱼岛领海巡航。 ·央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》，提出推动产业加快迈向中高端，防止"内卷式"竞争。 ·第二艘国产大型邮轮建造进入设备调试与系统功能验证阶段。 ·多次泄露内幕信息等，中国航空工业集团有限公司原党组书记谭瑞松被公诉。 ·美中东问题特使将于8月6日前往莫斯科。 ·黎巴嫩真主党：若以色列再发动战争将以武力回应。 ·巴厘岛倾覆快艇上有80人，2名中国公民遇难、6名中国公民不同程度受伤。 ·孟加拉国将于明年2月举行大选。 ·柬埔寨国防部：已拆除泰军在柬境内布设的铁丝网。 ·俄联邦安全局称挫败一起针对俄军工企业负责人的暗杀行动。 ·俄研究机构 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, Nasdaq down 0.65%, and S&P 500 down 0.49%. Major tech stocks like Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom fell over 1%, while Intel rose over 3% and Amazon nearly 1% [3] - The U.S. trade deficit for June was reported at $60.2 billion, better than the expected $61 billion and down from the previous $71.5 billion [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.25% to $3435 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 1.36% to $37.835 per ounce [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization, emphasizing long-term financing for key manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits and medical equipment [7] - The China Passenger Car Association slightly raised its annual forecast for 2025, predicting retail sales of 24.35 million passenger cars, a 6% increase, and exports of 5.46 million units, a 14% increase [8] - The China Machinery Industry Federation called for fair competition in the photovoltaic industry, urging companies to avoid dumping products below cost and focus on quality and innovation [9] Group 3 - The Chinese government allocated 1.015 billion yuan to support agricultural recovery in disaster-affected areas [10] - The former chairman of China Aviation Industry Corporation was prosecuted for corruption and insider trading [11] - NIO's new model, the L90, achieved 1,976 deliveries within three days of its launch, indicating strong market demand [18] Group 4 - Tesla's board approved a stock award for CEO Elon Musk valued at approximately $29 billion, contingent on his continued leadership until 2027 [15] - Li Auto announced a price reduction for its i8 model to 339,800 yuan, aiming to enhance market competitiveness [19] - JD.com is preparing to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, countering rumors of exiting the market [20]

Group 1 - The State Council issued opinions on gradually promoting free preschool education, starting from the autumn semester of 2025, exempting public kindergarten tuition fees for children in their last year [2] - The People's Bank of China and seven departments released guidelines to support new industrialization, focusing on enhancing financial services for emerging industries and promoting multi-level capital market financing [3] - The National Health Commission and 16 departments launched the "Healthy China Action - Healthy Environment Promotion Action Implementation Plan (2025-2030)" to advance the construction of a beautiful and healthy China [3] Group 2 - In July, the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported a logistics industry prosperity index of 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in logistics demand despite adverse weather conditions [4] - The China Electromechanical Products Import and Export Chamber opposed unfair competition in the photovoltaic industry, particularly regarding exports below cost [4] - The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission announced that all new energy power generation will participate in market trading by the end of 2025, impacting pricing mechanisms [4] Group 3 - A-share company Upwind New Materials may apply for a continuous suspension of trading if stock prices rise further [6] - Dongjie Intelligent reported no significant changes in production and operations [6] - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 11.639 billion yuan from pig sales in July, a year-on-year decrease of 10.41% [6] - Vanke A received a loan of up to 1.681 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group [6] - Ruoyuchen plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] - Anker Detection's controlling shareholder changed to Xirui Technology, and the stock resumed trading [6] - Daodaquan's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake by 50 million to 100 million yuan [6] - Sanjiang Shopping will not renew its cooperation agreement with Hema Fresh after it expires [6] - Yinglian Co. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a well-known cylindrical battery company [6] - Lianhuan Pharmaceutical's LH-1801 project is not expected to significantly impact revenue and operating performance in the near term [6]

21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 金融支持新型工业化路线图出炉。 近日，中国人民银行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》（以下简称《意 见》）。《意见》对照新型工业化重点任务，坚持以产业需求牵引深化金融供给侧结构性改革，构建全 覆盖、差异化、专业性金融服务体系，形成金融支持新型工业化的清晰路径。 一是在宏观层面要优化资金供给结构，为新型工业化提供贷款、债券、股权等融资支持。二是完善科技 金融服务体系，支持核心技术攻关、新兴产业培育发展和传统产业改造升级。三是优化供应链金融和区 域、外贸金融服务，支持重点产业链和先进制造业集群发展。四是推进绿色金融和转型金融，支持新能 源产业和传统工业绿色低碳改造。五是积极有序发展数字金融，支持工业数字化智能化改造和数字基础 设施建设。 《意见》提出，强化产业政策和金融政策协同，提升金融支持强度精度效度，为建设以科技创新为引 领、先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系，扎实推进新型工业化，加快发展新质生产力提供高质量金融 服务。坚持分类施策、有扶有控，推动产业加快迈向中高端，防止"内卷式"竞争。 《意见》还明确了总体目标，即到2027年，支持制造业高端化智能化绿色化 ...

近年来，金融体系不断优化资金供给结构，加大对新型工业化提供债券、股权等融资支持。 6月末，我国制造业中长期贷款余额同比增长8.7%，高于各项贷款增速。上半年，A股市场通过首次公 开发行股票、增发和可转债的方式为工信领域企业募集资金1488亿元，同比增长51.6%。 在金融支持新型工业化实现总量增长的同时，企业对于金融服务的质效和适配性有着更高期待。 加快推进新型工业化，离不开金融活水的润泽。 8月5日，中国人民银行等7部门发布《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》，聚焦新型工业化重大战 略任务需要，提出18条针对性支持举措。 意见明确了金融支持新型工业化的总体"时间表"：到2027年，支持制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展 的金融体系基本成熟，服务适配性有效增强。制造业企业有效信贷需求得到充分满足，制造业企业发行 债券的户数和规模持续增长，股权融资水平显著提升。 坚持分类施策、有扶有控，围绕推动产业加快迈向中高端，意见勾勒出清晰的"路线图"—— 为支持制造业企业释放创新活力，意见提出优化金融政策工具，引入长期资金和发展耐心资本；为提升 产业链供应链韧性，意见提出强化重点企业金融服务；为支持加快建设现代化产业体系， ...

Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China's service trade import and export totaled 38,872.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation announced that the logistics industry prosperity index for July was 50.5, indicating continued expansion but a slight slowdown in growth [1] - The People's Bank of China and six other departments stated that by 2027, the financial system supporting the high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing will be basically mature [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced that 55 types of drugs will be included in the 11th batch of centralized procurement, with rational bidding from enterprises [1] - The Supreme People's Court reported that 1,156 cases of medical insurance fraud were concluded in 2024, recovering over 400 million yuan in losses [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revealed that the number of new A-share accounts in July increased by 71% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in the A-share market [1] Company News - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation plans to absorb and merge China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Company, leading to the latter's delisting [5] - Green通科技 intends to use 45,040 million yuan of raised funds to acquire a 46.92% stake and invest 8,000 million yuan in Damo Semiconductor, resulting in a 51% stake in the company [5] - Shanghai Washba established a joint venture with Yuyuan Rare Earth New Materials Co., with a registered capital of 200 million yuan [5] - Maiwei Bio's chairman received an administrative penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected short-term trading [5] Bond Market Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced that starting August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds will be subject to VAT, reversing previous exemptions [7] - The policy aims to narrow the tax burden differences in the bond market and is expected to help alleviate fiscal pressure, as public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [8] - The impact of the VAT restoration on 10-year government bonds is estimated to be around 10 basis points for self-operated accounts and 5 basis points for asset management products [9] - The new tax policy may lead to a widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds, with credit bonds potentially becoming more attractive [10] - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in the short term, with a projected yield range of 1.6% to 1.8% [12]

盘面点评： 国债期货日报 2025年8月5日 市场降波 观点：波段交易，等待布局机会 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货全天震荡上行，斜率不算陡峭，但波动同样比较平稳。午后盘中转头回落，涨幅有所收窄，最终除 TS2509外，其余合约均收涨。期现两端表现一致，长端均强于短端，5Y以上现券收益率均小幅回落约 0.5bp，而短端则基本持平。此外，日内12合约普遍强于09，跨期价差向下小幅修正。公开市场到期4492亿 元，央行新做1607亿，日内净回笼2885亿元。资金利率保持平稳，隔夜匿名和DR001加权保持在1.31%附 近，非银尾盘资金需求增加，交易所隔夜下午逐步走高至1.54%附近。总体来看，流动性保持平稳。 日内消息： 1.央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》。《意见》加强金融服务能力和长效机制建 设，促进保持制造业合理比重投入。健全金融机构服务制造业的内部机制安排，单列制造业信贷计划，针对 细分行业和企业成长阶段特点制定差异化授信政策。 行情研判： 债市日内稳步走强，结合周一的小幅上涨，目前对增值税恢复利好老券的逻辑的计价是 ...