1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.01%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 5.90%, the main contract of platinum closed down 3.32%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 5.22% [1] - In the short - term, the risk aversion from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - The "black swan" event that Fed Chairman Powell was deeply involved in a criminal investigation due to the headquarters renovation case directly shook the independence of monetary policy and the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, leading to the de - anchoring of long - term inflation expectations. Geopolitical risks such as the US - Iran situation and the US arrest of Maduro have increased [1] - In December, US employment growth almost stagnated, and the decline in the unemployment rate alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. In November, the core CPI in the US increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. In December, the Fed cut interest rates amidst many differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. Currently, the market expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US bond yields are oscillating strongly [1] - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. The short - term demand for palladium is still resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1] 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4608.80 per ounce, up 2.00% from the previous day and 3.34% from last week; London gold was at $4612.95 per ounce, up 2.65% from the previous day and 3.51% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1027.18 yuan per gram, up 0.09% from the previous day and 2.21% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1025.52 yuan per gram, up 0.33% from the previous day and 2.36% from last week [2] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 34.94% [2][3] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.79 per ounce, up 4.04% from the previous day and 10.41% from last week; London silver was at $78.14 per ounce, up 3.90% from the previous day and 5.29% from last week; Shanghai silver main contract closed at 21004.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28% from the previous day and 7.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21048.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.70% from the previous day and 7.97% from last week [4] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.83% [4][5] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day but up 17.68% from last week; London platinum was at $2208.00 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day but up 15.84% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day but up 15.56% from last week [7] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.03% [7][9] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [10] - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821.00 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day but up 5.57% from last week; London palladium was at $1837.00 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day but up 11.01% from last week [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Fed: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are 66245.58 billion US dollars, down 0.01% from last week [11] - US economy: GDP growth is 2.30% year - on - year and 4.30% quarter - on - quarter; CPI is 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month; Core CPI is 2.60% year - on - year [11] - Other data: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, down 0.10 percentage points; The geopolitical risk index is 196.96, up 51.03% from the previous day but down 28.01% from last week; The VIX index is 15.12, up 4.35% from the previous day and 1.48% from last week; The CRB commodity index is 304.04, up 0.85% from the previous day and 0.65% from last week; The offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9733 [12][13][15] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meetings from January 2026 to December 2027 [16]

美元指数在窄幅区间内徘徊，市场情绪谨慎，等待更明确的政策线索。尽管美联储当前维持利率不变， 但经济表现偏强、通胀仍具黏性，再加上围绕美联储独立性的争议发酵，使得市场对降息的押注从年初 明显向后推延，政策路径的不确定性显著上升。 美联储政策基调偏鹰，内部分歧加剧 多家大型投行近期调整预测，将首次降息时间从3月延后至年中。机构普遍认为，美联储今年的降息次 数将少于此前预期，宽松周期的启动更可能是"慢起步"。 市场定价也同步收紧，对上半年降息的预期大幅降温，年中已成为多数交易员认可的启动窗口。 美联储独立性争议升温，加剧政策不确定性 鲍威尔近日就检方调查发表声明，称相关行动是试图影响美联储决策、削弱其独立性的"借口"。该事件 引发市场波动，美元指数一度从近期高点回落。政策中立性的不确定性，使投资者对未来利率路径的判 断更加谨慎。 在去年12月完成连续第三次降息后，美联储已进入观望模式。鲍威尔强调，只有在看到通胀持续下行的 更多证据后，才会考虑进一步宽松，暗示短期内更倾向于按兵不动。 值得注意的是，12月会议出现了多年来最多的反对票，委员们在经济前景、通胀风险以及政策节奏上的 分歧明显扩大，这也让市场对未来政策走向更 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 主要逻辑，焦炭的供需格局直接受制于上游的焦煤成本、下游钢铁需求以及 宏观政策导向；焦炭综合库存已至中等偏高水平、供需整体偏弱。下游钢厂季节 性累库阶段，铁水产量继续回升，对焦炭短期需求有所提振。宏观方面国内央行 和美联储降息预期仍存。综合来看，预期焦炭短期延续反弹为主、低多思路对待。 【期现行情】 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1774，收盘 1745，日内减仓 1031 手，前高 1817.5， 前低 1719；短期延续反弹为主，关注前低支撑和前高压力。 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 9 日独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 6.04%至 86.07 万吨， 钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.27%至 645.73 万吨，港口焦炭库存回升至 249.1 万吨，焦 炭综合库存增加 2.22 万吨至 980.9 万吨，为 3 个月高位，同比降逾 1%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利-45 元/吨；山西准一级焦平 均盈利-30 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 17 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-86 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 9 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂高炉开工率环增 0.37%至 ...

"就业驱动"转向"通胀驱动" 报告指出，鉴于近期经济动能改善与失业率下降（外国出生劳动力参与率亦在重新加速），美联储为稳定劳动力市场而实施紧急降息的紧迫性已 显著降低。政策焦点现已转向通胀，具体路径将是：首先等待加征关税的全面价格传导效应完成，随后必须确认通胀呈现出明确且可持续的向2% 目标回落的趋势，才会启动降息周期。 摩根士丹利已将其对美联储首次降息的预期时点，从原先预测的1月和4月推迟至6月和9月。该行认为，降息的核心逻辑已从劳动力市场转向通 胀。 据追风交易台，1月12日，摩根士丹利发布的全球宏观论坛报告中表示，鉴于近期经济动能改善与失业率下降，美联储稳定就业市场的紧迫性已降 低。未来的政策行动将取决于两大关键信号：特朗普政府关税调整对价格的全面影响，以及通胀数据能否显示明确的回落趋势。 报告认为，利率市场需对过于乐观的降息预期进行重新定价，当前市场虽接近其基准预测，但对通胀黏性等尾部风险定价不足。该行维持对美联 储最终利率目标区间为3.0%-3.25% 的预测不变。 从期限溢价来看，10年期美债收益率与市场隐含的政策利率底部之差，在2025年4月2日"解放日"后有所扩大。截至报告发布时，模型显示的期 ...

2）影响因素分析: 一方面，特朗普发表关于伊朗局势的较为激进言论、令市场对美伊局势或进一步升级的担忧加剂，超险需求升温推开贵金属价格，另一方面, 同帮班，美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，同时在政治施压下市场或提前博弈降息加码预期，也对责金属价格构成利好。其次，从基本面上来 取提微微青，白银现货维持升水，现货偏紧格局不改、加上光伏出口退税政策短期或改善自银需求预期，都进一步助力报价弹性释放。综上、展望后市，短期在宏观和基本 赌《个》面支撑的双重利好下，预计贵金属价格科维持筛强运行，但在上期所、芝商所均领赛出台风控指施以利制投机亲度和贵金属市场获利了结压力仍较大等背景下、其 ■39. 以 价格波动幅度或仍会较为剧烈、建议控制仓位。后续，需继续密切关注伊朗局势进展、美联储主席鲍威尔调查和新任主席人选、特朗普夫税期决、美国2030直结果 供参考) 、美国CPI 等一系列事件。长期来看，贵金属的上涨逻辑并未逆转，策略上仍以逢低做多或卖浅虚看跌期权为主。 3）中长期现点：中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和进全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 ...

| 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | --- | --- | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | | 权益、商品延续强势，风险资产占优： | 2025-12-30 | | 20251226 多资产配置周报 | | | 当低利率邂逅风偏回归，资产配置被动为 | 2025-12-12 | | 盾，主动为矛：——2026 年多资产配置展 | | | 望 | | | 交易平稳，预期主导：——资产配置月报 | 2025-12-03 | | 202512 | | | 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转 | 2025-12-03 | | 向：——资产配置模型月报 202512 | | 资产配置 | 定期报告 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优 20260112 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S08601 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

全球央行持续购入黄金的行为构成了金价长期上涨的基石。根据中国人民银行此前公布的数据，中国 2025年12月末黄金储备报7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增持黄金。 2026年1月12日，亚洲交易时段，国际现货黄金价格延续强势，盘中触及4600美元/盎司上方，再度刷新 历史最高纪录。同期，现货白银价格亦同步上扬，逼近每盎司84美元关口，同样创下历史新高。 市场分析普遍将此次上涨归因于多重地缘政治风险事件的集中发酵。据多家媒体报道，美国方面正权衡 针对伊朗局势的多种潜在行动方案。此外，美国对委内瑞拉事务的介入以及欧洲地缘安全议题的讨论， 均显著提升了市场的风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。 另一方面，市场对美联储未来货币政策的预期也为金价提供了支撑。美国劳工统计局上周五公布的数据 显示，2025年12月非农就业人数增加5万人，低于市场普遍预期；失业率则小幅回落至4.4%。就业增长 放缓，使市场认为货币政策存在进一步转向宽松的空间。在低利率预期环境下，持有无息资产黄金的机 会成本下降，这通常对黄金价格构成利好。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个 ...

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 崔可腾 实习生 赵钰灿 金价又双叒叕创新高了！ 相关消息一出，迅速被推上热搜。 社交媒体上，网友们也对国际贵金属的快速上涨直呼"离谱"。 金价大幅度跳动的原因找到了！ 美国经济数据疲软强化降息预期，上周五公布的美国非农就业报告显示，12月新增就业仅5万人，低于市场预期的6万人。 这一数据强化了市场对美联储将继续降息的预期。美联储的降息预期则使得不产生利息的黄金资产吸引力相对上升。 俄乌冲突、美委及伊朗局势等地缘政治风险，进一步加剧了市场避险情绪，为火热的金市"添柴加薪"。 同时，美联储主席鲍威尔近期面临司法威胁，导致美元在亚洲交易时段小幅走低，进一步提振了以美元计价的黄金价格。 1月12日亚洲时间早盘，贵金属价格狂飙。截至早上9点10分发稿时，现货黄金盘中一度突破4600美元/盎司，创出历史新高，现货白银更是涨近5%，站上 84美元/盎司，同样创出历史新高。 "白银没有全球央行储备带来的需求端支撑，所以价格会对市场资金的流动更加敏感。我们预测的是白银价格会继续走高，但波动性和不确定性显著高于 黄金"。 高盛集团大宗商品研究全球联席主管 丹·斯图伊文指出，相较黄金，预计白银交易将持续面临 ...

但即便如此，道琼斯工业平均指数仍有可能在周一创下 50000 点的历史新高。 道琼斯工业平均指数成分股为具有市场代表性的大型企业，其走势通常能够反映美国整体市场情绪。市 场紧张情绪升温或投资者信心低迷时，道指往往会下跌；而市场情绪转好时，道指则会呈现上行趋势。 当前，美国正面临着尖锐的政治分歧：委内瑞拉爆发罢工活动；明尼阿波利斯一名母亲遭枪击身亡后， 民众发起抗议移民海关执法局的示威；2025 年美国新增就业岗位数量惨淡收官；特朗普还放话 "无论格 陵兰方面意愿如何，美国都将有所行动"。 从常理来看，这些因素都应导致道指承压下跌，而非逼近历史高点。那么，为何此次道指走势与历史经 验相悖？ 经济基本面压倒头条新闻 华尔街更为关注的是特朗普各项政治举措背后的经济影响，例如委内瑞拉的罢工是否会扰乱石油供应。 美国能源信息署的数据显示，委内瑞拉原油储量约占全球总储量的五分之一。特朗普已提议，美国将投 资委内瑞拉石油基础设施，此举有望开发该国丰富的原油资源。 美国出兵委内瑞拉，总统唐纳德・特朗普威胁将 "强行夺取" 格陵兰岛。与此同时，美国经济前景不明 朗，就业报告表现疲软。 基础设施投资顾问公司首席执行官杰伊・哈特菲 ...