Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve emphasizes inflation concerns over economic stagnation, indicating a hawkish stance in its recent monetary policy meeting, with a focus on rising inflation risks rather than economic downturn risks [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting highlighted the unclear impact of Middle Eastern tensions on the economy, making it difficult to provide precise economic forecasts [2]. - The economic projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) were revised upward, reflecting increased inflation expectations [2]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a median forecast of one rate cut this year, although many officials lowered their expectations for the number of cuts and discussed the possibility of rate hikes, indicating a generally hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations are driven by tariffs and geopolitical risks, which are suppressing rate cut expectations; however, these factors are expected to have a temporary impact, with potential for rate cut expectations to rise in the second half of the year [3]. - The influence of tariffs is becoming clearer, with the expectation that any increases will be limited and viewed as one-time impacts on inflation, alleviating concerns from the Federal Reserve [3]. - The labor market remains weak, necessitating further rate cuts, but short-term inflation pressures are hindering this process; if tariffs and geopolitical risks stabilize, inflation expectations may ease, creating conditions for rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Projections - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, awaiting renewed rate cut expectations, while U.S. equities may experience volatility but could find support from easing expectations [4]. - The anticipated rate cuts would lower the risk-free rate, supporting equity valuations, and could bolster corporate earnings, potentially reversing economic downturns and initiating recovery [4]. - Short-term volatility in U.S. equities is likely due to geopolitical risks and liquidity concerns, with upward turning points dependent on future developments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent Federal Reserve meeting, highlighting a shift in market expectations regarding interest rates and inflation, which could lead to significant impacts on various asset classes, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty [2][7][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has been perceived as hawkish, with a notable increase in inflation expectations [10][11]. - The median projection indicates one potential rate cut of 25 basis points this year, but seven officials predict no cuts, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment [12][14]. - The PCE inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised from 2.4% to 2.7%, influenced by geopolitical factors and previous tariff policies, indicating a structural rather than temporary inflation [16][17]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, major indices in Asia experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.05% and the Nikkei 225 falling by 3.38% [6]. - The high interest rates are expected to pressure high-valuation tech stocks, particularly those in the AI sector, as their discounted cash flow models become less favorable [22][24]. - The anticipated liquidity boost from potential rate cuts has been replaced by a tightening environment, leading to a prolonged period of market correction and differentiation among asset classes [26][27]. Group 3: Asset Class Implications - The strong dollar is likely to regain its status as a safe haven, with the DXY index rising above 100, driven by prolonged high interest rates in the U.S. compared to other currencies [30][32]. - Gold prices have seen a short-term decline due to rising real interest rates, although long-term geopolitical tensions may provide a support base for gold as a safe-haven asset [34][35]. - Oil prices have surged above $110 due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which could further entrench inflation expectations and create a challenging economic environment reminiscent of the 1970s stagflation [36][39]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on defensive strategies amid liquidity contraction and macroeconomic volatility, prioritizing assets with strong cash flows and dividends [42][48]. - High-growth tech stocks, particularly those lacking earnings support, should be avoided, as they are likely to face significant valuation corrections [45]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rational mindset during periods of market turmoil, suggesting that patience and discipline are crucial for navigating the current investment landscape [49][50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the platinum market is expected to continue wide - range volatile trading due to the game between inflation support and interest rate suppression. However, the long - term bullish logic for platinum remains intact considering supply contraction and a structural supply - demand gap. Palladium's performance is relatively pressured by supply - demand loosening expectations, and its subsequent trend may be macro - driven and follow platinum prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips after sufficient corrections [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: Platinum's main contract closing price is 548.00 yuan/gram, down 6.55 yuan; palladium's is 402.80 yuan/gram, down 7.10 yuan. Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 540.95 yuan/gram, down 7.98 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 380.00 yuan/gram, down 8.00 yuan. Platinum's main contract basis is - 7.05 yuan/gram, down 1.43 yuan; palladium's is - 22.80 yuan/gram, down 0.90 yuan [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index is 99.56, down 0.24; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.83%, down 0.04%. The VIX volatility index is 22.37, down 1.14 [2] b. Industry News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, signaling only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, with a more conservative rate - cut path [2] - The Fed raised inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denied the US economy was in stagflation [2] - US President Trump considered further actions against the Iranian regime and authorized a 60 - day temporary exemption of the "Jones Act" to reduce domestic transportation costs of commodities [2] - US February PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected 0.3%, and 3.4% year - on - year, a one - year high [2] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.8%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged by July is 77.4% [2] c. Market Performance - During today's trading session, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange tumbled following gold and silver prices. The platinum 2606 contract fell 7.66% to 506.95 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract fell 8.18% to 371.45 yuan/gram [2] d. Key Points to Watch - On March 19, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US; 22:00, the annualized total of new home sales in the US in January, the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the US in January, and the monthly rate of the Conference Board Leading Index in the US in February [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate weakly and suggests paying attention to the support at the 22,400 yuan/ton level [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,690 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan; the 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is -25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,132.5 US dollars/ton, down 100.5 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 209,707 lots, up 3,983 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is -3,672 lots, down 1,813 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 147,348 tons, up 12,427 tons; the LME inventory is 118,025 tons, down 350 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is -41.47 US dollars/ton, up 6.7 US dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,070 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons [3] - The social inventory of zinc is 236,000 tons, up 4,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 22.68%, down 0.08%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 21.39%, down 0.28% [3] - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 22.68%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 20.01%, down 0.43% [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump said that his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks, and the Foreign Ministry responded that the head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two sides will continue to communicate on this matter [3] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, raised the inflation forecast, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year. Powell said that there will be no rate cut before inflation improves, and he will not leave the Fed during the investigation and will serve as the interim chairman if necessary. The "New Fed Wire" said that the Iran war threat may force the Fed to extend its fight against inflation [3] - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, targeting three Middle Eastern countries. Trump allegedly does not want to attack such facilities again for the time being. Part of Iran's largest gas field was shut down, which was the first time since the conflict broke out. The US military plans to mass - produce Iranian suicide drones. Trump said he is not ready to end the conflict and is not worried about Iran becoming "another Vietnam" [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The continuous rise in crude oil prices and the downward adjustment of interest - rate cut expectations in the macro - aspect, along with concerns about stagflation, have led to a significant short - term decline in the absolute price of zinc ingots. As downstream consumption recovers, the spot market transaction activity has increased. The import of ore TC is still in a state of slight decline, and the domestic smelting profit is acceptable. The smelting enthusiasm is high, and the ore end supports the zinc price. In the long run, without trading the recession, the overseas consumption is still optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$48.17 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,200 yuan/ton, a change of -670 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -95 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,230 yuan/ton, a change of -680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,190 yuan/ton, a change of -690 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -105 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On March 18, 2026, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,650 yuan/ton and closed at 23,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 545 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,120 lots, and the position was 65,911 lots. The highest price was 23,665 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 275,800 tons, a change of 7,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 118,025 tons, a change of -350 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, with a voting outcome of 11 in favor and 1 against the decision[2] - The dot plot indicates a median expectation of one rate cut this year, consistent with the December projections, but the distribution of votes suggests a shift towards fewer rate cuts[2] Economic Indicators - Inflation remains above the 2% target, with the PCE index reflecting high readings influenced by tariffs, indicating a need for patience in policy adjustments[2] - The employment market shows signs of cooling, but most indicators have not changed significantly, suggesting no immediate need for aggressive easing[2] Geopolitical Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation could impact U.S. economic conditions, with potential implications for inflation expectations[2] - Market dynamics are currently influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the oil market, leading to a scenario where "oil down means everything up, oil up means everything down"[2] Market Expectations - The CME model indicates that the market has begun to anticipate no further rate cuts this year, with probabilities reflecting a strong expectation of maintaining current rates[5] - The potential for volatility in tech indices, particularly the Nasdaq, is heightened due to risk preferences and liquidity concerns, suggesting possible investment opportunities post-emotional release[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalations in geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the performance of tin prices at the 350,000 - yuan level. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [1][2]. Copper - In the short term, the inventory structural contradiction that previously drove copper price increases has basically been resolved. Prices are under pressure due to reduced market risk appetite and are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to follow the changes in the US - Iran conflict and overseas inventory accumulation, with the main focus on the pressure around 98,000 yuan [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to operate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance, with the main focus on the support between 22,800 - 23,000 yuan [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market should maintain a short - term bearish strategy on rallies. For aluminum, in the short term, it will oscillate at high levels with news changes. The LME spot shortage and high domestic inventory create internal and external driving differentiation, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to continue to weaken. In the long term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. It is recommended to closely monitor inventory inflection points and downstream resumption progress, with the main Shanghai aluminum contract expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term raw material cost at a high level strongly supports the ADC12 price, but demand follows slowly and the negative feedback effect of high prices is gradually emerging. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - The macro sentiment exerts pressure, but the raw material end has contradictions and supports the price. The inventory shows internal and external differentiation. The bottom support is strong, but the upward driving force needs to be further transmitted to the real end. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 132,000 - 142,000 yuan [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment has a certain suppressing effect, the raw material end is tight with strong cost support, and there is a game between supply and demand as steel mills increase production and demand gradually recovers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro sentiment is weak and exerts pressure, while the actual fundamentals of lithium carbonate are resilient, and demand remains optimistic but lacks further momentum. In the short term, the unilateral driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust widely around the macro and news, with the main reference range of 146,000 - 158,000 yuan [15][16]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable, and the futures price continues to decline significantly due to overall sentiment. The cost end may support the bottom of industrial silicon. The supply is growing rapidly, demand is growing slightly, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is advisable to operate cautiously and wait and see, and consider trying long positions at around 8,100 yuan [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot market is stable, and the futures price drops significantly with market sentiment, reflecting the pessimistic expectation of inventory accumulation. The industry still faces oversupply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If you want to participate, you can consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and setting stop - losses [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 369,500 yuan/ton, down 2.85% [1]. - **Internal and External Price Ratios and Import Profits and Losses**: The import loss is - 6,076.10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 270 yuan/ton, down 58.82% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17,637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production in February was 11,490 tons, down 23.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.30%, social inventory increased by 2.10%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 3.09%, and LME inventory increased by 2.52% [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 98,990 yuan/ton, down 1.23% [4]. - **Internal and External Price Ratios and Import Profits and Losses**: The import profit is 363 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio (delayed by one day) is 7.91 [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production in February was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13%; the import volume in December was 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 5.46%, bonded area inventory decreased by 4.18%, SHFE inventory increased by 1.96%, LME inventory increased by 1.13%, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 23,200 yuan/ton, down 2.81% [7]. - **Price Ratios and Profits and Losses**: The import loss is - 2,774 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.26 [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production in February was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99%; the import volume in December was 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased by 5.19%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.30% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 24,510 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [9]. - **Price Ratios and Profits and Losses**: The electrolytic aluminum import loss is - 3,420 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.34 [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between AL 2603 - 2604 is - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina production in February was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63%; domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 346.00 million tons, down 8.91% [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 4.33%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.84% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 25,000 yuan/ton, down 0.40% [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is - 23,595 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in February was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 20.93 million tons, down 30.99% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 5.56% [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 138,000 yuan/ton, down 1.39% [11]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [11]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,150 yuan/ton, up 0.95% [11]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is 1,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, down 7.45%; the import volume was 23,394 tons, up 84.63%. SHFE inventory increased by 3.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.49% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 14,350 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [13]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) is 80 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [13]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is - 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 190.08 million tons, up 44.07%; the import volume was 14.50 million tons, up 29.32% [13]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.19%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan/ton, down 1.58% [15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2605 is 1,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,720 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Lithium carbonate production in February was 83,090 tons, down 15.13%; the demand was 111,503 tons, down 10.57% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total lithium carbonate inventory in February was 28,353 tons, down 4.76% [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 27.57 million tons, down 26.58%; the national operating rate was 38.02%, down 21.33% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory (weekly) decreased by 0.18%, and the warehouse receipt inventory (daily) decreased by 1.40% [17]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock is 45,500 yuan/kg, unchanged [18]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract price is 40,105 yuan, down 3.76% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production was 1.90 million tons, up 1.06%; the import volume was 0.00 million tons, down 100.00% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory was 35.70 million tons, up 2.59%; the silicon wafer inventory was 28.35 million tons, down 2.28% [18].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes concerns over inflation ("胀") more than economic stagnation ("滞") in its recent meeting, indicating a hawkish stance[4] - The Fed's economic projections for GDP growth in 2026, 2027, and 2028 are revised to 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively, up from previous estimates[10] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 is slightly adjusted from 4.2% to 4.3%[10] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed has raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% respectively, influenced by oil and tariff shocks[10] - Short-term inflation expectations are primarily driven by tariffs and geopolitical risks, which are expected to have a temporary effect, potentially allowing for interest rate cuts later in the year[11] - The Fed maintains a median forecast of one rate cut for the year, but many officials have lowered their expectations for the number of cuts[4] Group 3: Market Implications - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to experience high volatility in the short term, with a potential decline as rate cut expectations resurface later in the year[19] - The stock market may face continued volatility due to geopolitical risks and liquidity issues, but could benefit from lower interest rates in the future, supporting corporate earnings[21] - The upcoming change in the Fed chair may influence monetary policy, with potential implications for rate cuts in the second half of the year[20] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There is significant uncertainty regarding the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could impact economic forecasts[22] - The potential for new tariffs following legal challenges to existing ones poses additional risks to inflation and economic stability[22]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, indicating it is close to the neutral zone[2] - The dot plot suggests one rate cut is expected this year, aligning with the revised PCE forecast[3] - The Fed raised the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.3% and adjusted the potential GDP growth from 1.8% to 2%[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 4.4%[3] - The PCE inflation expectation for 2026 was revised up to 2.7% from 2.4%, influenced by the Iran conflict[3] - Retail gasoline prices rose to $3.57 per gallon, a 33% increase from $2.69 at the beginning of the year[4] Group 3: Market Implications - High oil prices are expected to increase inflation, potentially narrowing the path for future rate cuts[4] - The implied interest rate expectation has converged to one rate cut, down from two earlier in the year[6] - The ongoing Iran conflict is a key variable influencing asset prices, with the dollar expected to strengthen against Asian currencies[9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, gold and silver are expected to remain in high - level oscillations. Gold is affected by rising inflation expectations and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations due to the deepening Middle - East conflict [1][7]. - Methanol is expected to be in a short - term oscillation with a slightly upward trend, as domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, and inventories are decreasing [2]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short - term and show a weakening trend in the medium - term due to supply and geopolitical disturbances and high inventory pressure [4]. - For coking coal, if the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [4]. - The price of hot - rolled coils may face pressure after a rebound, as geopolitical conflicts and trade investigations bring uncertainties to steel exports, and the inventory is relatively high [5]. - Thirty - year treasury bonds are in a triangular oscillating convergence, and short - term bond prices are under pressure due to the economic recovery and the potential rebound of the stock market [6]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak, but the downward space for long - term futures prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of breeding sows [9]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long in the short - term [10]. - For soybean meal, the short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [11]. - The short - term volatility of aluminum may increase, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow the change of aluminum prices, as geopolitical conflicts and high energy prices affect the supply and demand [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to the expected supply increase and high inventory [13]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term, with strong cost support and cautious demand - side procurement [14]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short - term, as the supply is high, the demand is average, and the inventory is at a high level [15]. - Crude oil is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy in the medium - term before the significant resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - Polyester bottle chips are recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy, as the supply increases, the cost support exists, and the downstream enters the consumption peak season [17]. - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate, with a strong supply - side raw material price, a seasonal inventory increase, and a good export market in the tire industry [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Gold - Middle - East energy facilities are attacked, the war deepens, inflation expectations rise, suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and precious metals. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2925 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. Port and inland inventories are decreasing, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term [2]. Iron Ore - From March 9th to 15th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 380.5 tons week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and weaken in the medium - term [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.39%, up 0.1%. The impact of geopolitical conflicts on coking coal prices is significant [4]. Hot - Rolled Coils - As of the week of March 18th, the output increased by 3.84 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 1.56 tons. The price may face pressure after a rebound [5]. Thirty - Year Treasury Bonds - Fixed - asset investment has changed from a decline to an increase. The bond market is under pressure in the short - term but is unlikely to break through the key support level [6]. Silver - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate unchanged, raises inflation and economic growth expectations. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [7]. Live Pigs - The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous day. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term downward space is limited [9]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 25.23% in December. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with strong support at the bottom [10]. Soybean Meal - The spot market price is stable with a slight decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on dips [11]. Aluminum - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects the aluminum supply chain. The short - term volatility may increase [12]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price is partially up 100 yuan/ton. It is in a situation of cost support and weak demand, and is expected to follow the change of aluminum prices [12]. Tin - Samsung's strike threat adds uncertainty to the semiconductor supply chain. Tin prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term [13]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 8424 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1253 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short - term [15]. Crude Oil - U.S. crude oil inventory increased, and the Middle - East conflict deepens. It is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy in the medium - term [16]. Polyester Bottle Chips - The capacity utilization rate is 72.50%, and the profit is 842.38 yuan/ton. It is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy [17]. Natural Rubber - The raw material price in Thailand is firm, the inventory in China is seasonally increasing, and the tire export market is good. It is expected to oscillate [18].