盘面上，近日一致走强的大型科技股多数显示疲惫，其中，快手跌近3%，百度跌2%，阿里巴巴跌 1.9%，小米、腾讯飘绿，闪购与华为鸿蒙合作升级，美团大涨5.6%表现最为强势，京东涨超2%；油汇 成本改善利好航企业绩，近期调整的航空股再度迎来大涨行情，东航大涨近7%相对抢眼；巨头密集发 布产品调价通知，白卡纸价开始触底反弹，纸业股午后涨幅加大；流感药品销量暴涨！药品类股走势活 跃，创新药概念股涨幅相对明显，半导体芯片股、汽车股、重型基建股、保险股多数上涨。 另一方面，地缘政治有缓和迹象，军工股持续回调，影视娱乐股、黄金股、稳定币概念股、内房股、煤 炭股多数走低。(格隆汇) 港股高开震荡尾盘涨幅持续收窄，恒生指数涨0.13%26000点得而复失，国企指数、恒生科技指数分别 上涨0.04%及0.11%，大市总体呈现3连涨行情。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.81% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 0.92%. However, sectors such as media and computer industries showed strength, with significant net inflows of capital into certain stocks [2][3][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81 points, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 790.9 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49 points, down 0.92%, with a trading volume of 1135.119 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 3069.22 points, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 508.841 billion yuan. The total trading volume for both markets was 1926.019 billion yuan, an increase of 15.261 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2]. Sector Performance - The media, computer, education, and electronics sectors saw the highest gains, while sectors such as electric equipment, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, chemicals, real estate, and oil and petrochemicals experienced the largest declines. Notably, ST Zhongdi achieved a remarkable 20 consecutive trading limit increases [3][4]. Capital Flow - The total net outflow of capital from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 633.91 billion yuan, with the ChiNext experiencing a net outflow of 217.99 billion yuan. Only four sectors—media, computer, communication, and beauty care—saw net inflows, with media receiving 25.33 billion yuan and computers 11.72 billion yuan [5][6]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1913 stocks experienced net inflows, with 57 stocks receiving over 1 billion yuan in net inflows. Liou Co. led with a net inflow of 11.81 billion yuan, followed by Xinyi Sheng, Kaimeteqi, and others [7][8]. - Conversely, 3245 stocks faced net outflows, with 198 stocks seeing over 1 billion yuan in net outflows. Yangguang Electric Power had the highest outflow at 24.16 billion yuan [9][10]. Institutional Activity - Institutional investors had a net selling of approximately 14.25 billion yuan, with 12 stocks seeing net purchases. The top net purchase was for Delijia at about 1.25 billion yuan, while Tianshi Materials had the highest net selling at approximately 3.82 billion yuan [11].

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market adjusted last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.18%, the CSI 300 Index down by 1.08%, and the CSI 500 Index down by 1.26% [3][17] - Small-cap stocks outperformed, and value style outperformed growth style, with consumer services, textiles, and basic chemicals leading the sectors [3][17] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 20,410 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous week [3][17] Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the technology sector, A-shares have shifted focus from hardware to issues like power shortages and power equipment construction, with storage chips replacing optical modules as a new theme [4][20] - The A-share technology sector is currently influenced by the performance of major US tech companies, with upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia, Alibaba, and Baidu expected to impact market sentiment [20] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, driven by a declining US dollar index and a temporary easing of liquidity constraints in the US banking system [21] - The outlook for gold prices will closely follow US economic data releases and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate paths [21] Group 4: Public Fund Market Dynamics - The Asset Management Association of China released a draft for the "Guidelines for Investor Suitability Management of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," aimed at enhancing investor protection and fund sales practices [22] - The guidelines introduce new principles for risk assessment, including the correlation between stock positions and risk levels, ensuring that higher-risk funds are not rated lower than lower-risk funds [22][23] Group 5: Fund Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Index decreased by 0.15% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 14.77% since inception [6][24] - The Value Equity Fund Index increased by 1.37%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.23% since inception [7][24] - The Growth Equity Fund Index rose by 0.20%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 16.12% since inception [9][24]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed weakness in November, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.85%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 2.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 2.82% [2] - In October, China's industrial production maintained growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17%. The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors performed particularly well, growing by 8.0% and 7.2% respectively [3][4] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7%, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment [4] Group 2: Company Analysis - Shoujia Technology - Shoujia Technology, established in 1991 and listed in Hong Kong in 1992, is a leading producer of steel wire for tires in China, with plans to expand its production capacity to over 300,000 tons [6] - The company is entering the new market of robotic tendons, leveraging its existing production technology for steel wire. It has initiated a joint research and development project with Stardust Intelligent [6] - Financial forecasts indicate that Shoujia Technology's revenue will reach HKD 2.42 billion, HKD 2.58 billion, and HKD 2.79 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to grow significantly [7] Group 3: Investment Recommendation - Shoujia Technology is recognized as a leading player in the steel wire industry with strong shareholder backing and unique capabilities in transitioning to robotic tendon production [7] - A comparison with A-share company Daye Co., which has a projected PE ratio of 45.3, shows Shoujia Technology's PE at 32.1, indicating potential undervaluation [7] - The estimated market value of Shoujia Technology is HKD 2.61 billion, suggesting a target share price of HKD 4.9, with a recommended buy rating [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the postponement of the releases of "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work" indicates potential shifts in the animation industry and may impact related market segments [1]. Group 1 - The films "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work" were originally scheduled for release but have now been postponed [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 10 - 14, 2025, the market adjusted overall, with small - cap stocks leading in gains and the value style outperforming the growth style. The consumer services, textile and apparel, and basic chemicals sectors led the rise. The daily average trading volume of the entire A - shares increased compared to the previous week. A - shares still showed characteristics of a stock game, and the market focused on the game between next - year's policies and prosperity expectations, which was favorable for the small - and medium - cap theme investment style [4][12]. - The weakening of A - share technology was mainly due to the market's divergence on the US AI narrative. The A - share technology direction has spread from hardware to power shortages and power equipment construction, with storage chips replacing optical modules as the new theme, but there is no clear sign of a switch from AI hardware to software applications [13]. - The release of the third - quarter financial reports of technology giants such as NVIDIA, Alibaba, and Baidu will have an important impact on the "US stock AI bubble theory" and the rebound of A - share technology stocks and global risk assets at the end of the year [14]. - Last week, the gold price fluctuated upwards. The future trend of the gold price will closely revolve around the disclosure of US economic data and new signals from Fed officials regarding the interest - rate path [14]. - On November 12, 2025, the Asset Management Association of China drafted the "Regulations on the Suitability Management of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Fund Investors (Exposure Draft)" to further standardize the sales behavior of public funds and strengthen the obligation of suitability management for investors [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - Market performance: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.18%, the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.08%, the CSI 500 Index fell by 1.26%, and the Guozheng 2000 Index fell slightly by 0.13%. The daily average trading volume of the entire A - shares was 2.041 trillion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week [4][12]. - Capital layout: A - shares still showed characteristics of a stock game. Funds were deployed around two types of opportunities: logic - driven opportunities such as the new energy vehicle industry chain and petrochemical resource - related sectors, and event - gaming opportunities represented by regional concepts, restructuring themes, and low - priced stocks [12]. - Macro changes: In October, domestic economic data showed a "high - then - low" trend. Policy may be "supportive but not overly aggressive". The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report indicated that supportive monetary policies would balance long - term goals [13]. - Technology direction: The weakening of A - share technology was affected by the US AI narrative. The technology direction has spread from hardware to power shortages and power equipment construction, with storage chips replacing optical modules as the new theme, but there is no clear sign of a switch from AI hardware to software applications [13]. - Gold: Last week, the gold price fluctuated upwards. The future trend of the gold price will depend on US economic data and Fed officials' signals regarding interest - rate paths [14]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On November 12, 2025, the Asset Management Association of China drafted the "Regulations on the Suitability Management of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Fund Investors (Exposure Draft)", which requires fund managers and sales institutions to strictly fulfill suitability obligations and adds three principles for public fund risk assessment [16][17]. 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Year - to - Date | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Strategy and Theme | Active Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 0.15% | 1.49% | 38.93% | 40.06% | | Investment Style | Value Stock Fund Preferred Index | 1.37% | 2.54% | 21.08% | 21.17% | | | Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 0.24% | 1.00% | 32.08% | 29.19% | | | Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index | 0.20% | 2.24% | 54.17% | 40.32% | | Industry Theme | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index | 4.97% | 1.28% | 42.97% | 23.85% | | | Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index | 0.32% | - 4.11% | 12.91% | 5.64% | | | Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 1.85% | - 0.95% | 46.52% | 48.82% | | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 1.49% | 4.95% | 36.30% | 29.73% | | | Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index | 1.10% | - 3.40% | 27.16% | 18.19% | - Each index has its own positioning and performance comparison benchmarks. For example, the Active Stock Fund Preferred Index selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation, and its performance comparison benchmark is the CSI Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [19][20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current policy is criticized for being overly restrictive and backward-looking, with calls for at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [2][4][30] - Recent inflation data has shown improvement, particularly in shelter inflation, which is expected to align more closely with market rents, indicating a dovish stance should be adopted [5][11][12] - There is a concern that the Fed is relying on outdated data, which may lead to delayed policy responses, potentially causing the Fed to fall behind economic changes [21][23][24] Group 2 - The Fed's focus on inflation is seen as myopic, with suggestions that it should also consider labor market conditions and wage growth when making policy decisions [19][20][22] - High-frequency data, such as freight shipments, suggests a different economic reality than what the Fed is currently acknowledging, indicating a need for more timely data analysis [12][20] - The relationship between Fed rate cuts and mortgage rates is emphasized, with expectations that rate cuts will lead to lower mortgage rates, impacting housing affordability [30][31] Group 3 - The discussion includes the potential impact of immigration on inflation, with the argument that increased immigration without sufficient housing supply has contributed to rising rents and inflation [36][37] - The Fed's mandate focuses on stable prices and maximum employment, which may not align with external pressures such as gold and cryptocurrency markets [34][35] - The overall sentiment is that the Fed needs to adapt its approach to better reflect current economic conditions and avoid being reactive rather than proactive [22][24][27]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,073, up 0.56% for the day and 34.96% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.80% to 5,981, with a year-to-date increase of 33.87%[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.68% to 9,599, showing a year-to-date growth of 31.68%[3] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks showed mixed results; Alibaba rose over 3% following news of a rebranding to enhance AI recognition[9] - The paper industry saw significant gains, with Nine Dragons Paper up over 10% due to a price increase of 30-100 RMB per ton[9] - The innovative drug sector was active, with 3SBio rising over 10% and BeiGene up over 7% after reporting a net profit of 1.139 billion RMB for Q3[9] Commodity and Energy Markets - Lithium battery stocks surged, with Ganfeng Lithium increasing over 12% as lithium carbonate futures rose 20% since mid-October[9] - Gold stocks collectively strengthened, with China Silver Group up over 12% as spot gold prices surpassed $4,220 per ounce[9] - OPEC warned of a "structural surplus" in the global oil market, leading to a decline in international oil prices[9] U.S. Market Trends - U.S. major indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.65% and the Nasdaq down 2.29% amid concerns over interest rate cuts[9] - Large tech stocks mostly fell, with Nvidia down 3.58% and Amazon down 2.71%[12] - The market's sentiment was pressured by Fed officials expressing hesitance on further rate cuts, reducing the probability of a December cut to nearly 50%[9] Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.43%, supported by a rebound in investor sentiment following the end of the U.S. government shutdown[12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan increased by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[12] - Bank stocks in Japan generally strengthened, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group up 2%[12]

FT：分析师们认为，中国未报告的黄金购买量可能是其官方数据的10倍以上，因为中国正悄悄尝试减少对美元的投资，以实现多元化。这突显出，金价创纪录上涨背后的需求来源越来越不透明。中国央行今年公开的数据显示黄金购买量非常低，以至于市场上很少有人相信官方数据。根据贸易数据，法兴银行的分析师估计，中国今年的黄金总购买量可能高达250吨，超过全球央行总需求的三分之一。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国央行连续第12个月增持黄金，2025年10月末黄金储备增加3万盎司至7409万盎司（9月增加4万盎司），以美元计增加139.18亿美元。10月末外汇储备环比增加46.85亿美元（9月增加165.04亿美元）至33386.58亿美元。 https://t.co/jAvF8MAPtz ...