一周观点 总量研究 本周观点 | 总量研究 2 | | --- | | 本周观点 2 | | 重点报告 2 | | 行业研究 4 | | 本周观点 4 | | 重点报告 5 | | 公司研究 6 | | 重点报告 6 | | 重点报告摘要 7 | | 总量研究 7 | | 行业研究 10 | | 公司研究 12 | | 领域 | 一周观点 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 新一轮政策部署护航，A 股跨年行情可期。一方面，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力，经济增 | | | | 长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础；另一方面，政策红利释放，有 | | | 策略 | 望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入；此外，历史来看，"十三五"和"十四五" | 张宇生 | | | 开局之年 A 股市场均有不错的表现，历史上开局之年的积极表现有望在 2026 年得到延续。 | | | | 本周国内权益市场指数普遍上涨，创业板指上涨 1.86%,周期主题基金表现占优，消费、医药 | | | 金工 | 主题基金净值回调。国内市场新成立基金 39 只，合计发行份额为 365.89 亿份 ...

（张宇生/郭磊）2025-12-14 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期——策略周专题（2025年12月第2期） 新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期。一方面，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合 理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础；另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各 类资金积极流入；此外，历史来看，"十三五"和"十四五"开局之年A股市场均有不错的表现，历史上开局之年 的积极表现有望在2026年得到延续。 您可点击今日推送内容的第3条查看 【房地产】11月核心15城二手房成交面积环比+15%——光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2025年11月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a cross-year rally supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, while defensive and consumer sectors may be considered in the short term due to external factors [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74% [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - **Everbright Securities**: Anticipates a cross-year market rally supported by new policy measures, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors. If external factors lead to market fluctuations, defensive and consumer sectors should be monitored [2]. - **Tianfeng Securities**: Notes that the CPI continued to rise year-on-year in November, while PPI's decline widened slightly. The market may be preparing for a new trading pulse before March, amidst a performance vacuum and policy negotiations [3]. - **Guotai Junan**: Believes that the market is entering a cross-year offensive, with expectations for policy upgrades and increased trading activity. The focus is on technology, brokerage insurance, and consumer sectors, as the market is expected to recover from previous adjustments [4]. - **CITIC Securities**: Emphasizes the importance of seeking intersection in investment strategies, focusing on overseas exposure and positive changes in domestic demand. Highlights the potential for resource and traditional manufacturing sectors to benefit from global market positioning [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite increased volatility in the A-share market in November, fund advisors are increasing their allocation to A-share assets, indicating a preparation for the year-end market rally [1] - In November, 131 fund advisor portfolios adjusted their allocations, with A-share assets receiving the largest increase compared to other asset types, as many fund managers begin to position for the year-end market trend [1] - The "year-end market rally" typically occurs from November to March, driven by positive expectations for policies, economy, and earnings for the following year, with historical data suggesting a high probability of such rallies [1] Group 2 - The Yingmi Fund's strategy for December indicates that the market is preparing for a spring rally in 2026, with a neutral short-term allocation value for domestic stocks but a potential for medium to long-term recovery [2] - Industry consensus suggests that despite short-term volatility in A-shares, declines present better buying opportunities, with optimism regarding overseas risk appetite and domestic liquidity expectations [2] Group 3 - Fund advisors are accelerating their adjustment pace, with cyclical industries such as coal, electric equipment, basic chemicals, and food and beverage receiving increased allocations in November, while some technology assets saw reduced allocations [3] - In December, fund advisors are refocusing on technology growth assets, anticipating early market speculation on improving economic conditions for the coming year [3] - Specific fund portfolios, such as Wanji Fund's "Wanji Extraordinary New Quality Drive," increased their mixed fund allocation from 54.6% to 64.1%, optimizing holdings in AI computing and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] Group 4 - Recent positive signals in the broader technology sector include improvements in lithium battery supply and sustained high demand in the optical module industry, which are areas of mid-term focus [4] - However, short-term trading in popular areas like AI computing chips and energy storage remains crowded, requiring time for market digestion, while lower-crowded areas like AI applications and robotics lack incremental funding and fundamental catalysts [4]

12月10日，指数早盘震荡调整，三大指数集体下跌，逾3800股飘绿，半日成交1.1万亿，较昨日缩量 1184亿。截至午间收盘，上证指数跌0.72%，深证成指跌0.56%，创业板指跌1.23%。 盘面上，零售板块延续强势，东百集团4连板，永辉超市、汇嘉时代涨停，中百集团等涨幅靠前；海南 自贸概念震荡反弹，海南瑞泽、罗牛山涨停，海汽集团等跟涨；影视院线板块走高，博纳影业涨停三连 板，中国电影等纷纷走高；贵金属板块上扬，晓程科技领涨，湖南白银、山金国际、招金黄金等涨幅靠 前。 焦点个股方面，摩尔线程盘中拉升，股价突破上市首日的688元高点，总市值超3200亿元。 下跌方面，AI、消费电子、光伏设备等板块跌幅靠前。 展望后市，东方证券认为，整体来看，市场仍处于调整之中，市场不乏热点但以结构性行情为主，加上 年底投资者趋于稳健甚至保守，股指短期上行动力不足，仍以震荡蓄势为主，但中长期向好逻辑不改。 热门板块 1、零售板块延续强势 零售板块延续强势，东百集团4连板，永辉超市、汇嘉时代涨停，南京商旅、步步高、茂业商业、新华 百货涨幅靠前。 点评：消息面上，全国零售业创新发展大会12月9日至10日在北京举行，商务部副部长盛秋 ...

三大指数涨幅很好，不过很多股民对牛市的体感不好，今年主要是2条主线拉升了，与场内的股民关系很有限，一个是汇金、险资它们拉升红利股，一个是 机构、量化抱团炒作科技权重股。 2025年，已经余额不足了，只有10多个交易日就结束全年的行情了。无论是亏损还是盈利都要翻篇了，一个很魔幻的一年。 事实上，科技指数涨幅很好，不过参与科技的股民盈利并不佳，很多科技股没有上涨，只是指数好看，从年初到年末都只是炒作AI硬件…… A股跨年行情来了 无论您信或者不信，跨年行情都要开启了，目前的市场已经没有什么多聊的地方，最后的10多个交易日，学会享受行情就行。 仓位，不要太激进了，可以开始谋划2026年的布局了，今年涨幅好的未必明年继续涨，反之亦然。不过，像白酒这种纯纯的大消费筹码大概率要等到熊市才 有行情了。 接下来，关键的行业就是证券、地产走势了，如果地产没有复苏，传统的消费蓝筹股都不会有行情，不接受反驳。 一天天刺激内需，实际上效果很有限，只有房地产复苏了，大家收入增加才会有消费复苏。用李迅雷的观点是AI取代不了房地产，毕竟太多行业依赖它 了，太多人依赖它创造的就业了。 AI只能让少数人变富，满足少数人的狂欢，因为科技行业是有 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted insights from top investors discussing the bull market, AI, and future trends in the Chinese market [2] - Li Qiang emphasized the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency in urban management [3][4] - The importance of integrating urban renewal with safety and real estate stability was stressed, alongside the need for targeted measures for the urbanization of agricultural migrants [3] Group 2 - The offshore RMB reached a 14-month high, breaking through the 7.06 mark, indicating a strengthening currency [5] - Global stock markets showed signs of stabilization following a rebound in US stocks, with cautious sentiment prevailing ahead of key economic data releases [6] - Two major GPU companies, Moore Threads and Muxi, are set to go public on December 5, with estimated market values of approximately 537.15 billion yuan and 104.66 yuan per share respectively [7] Group 3 - The FTSE Russell announced significant adjustments to various indices, effective December 19, 2025, which may impact stock selection based on past performance [8] - Copper prices reached a historical high amid tight supply conditions, with significant increases in COMEX copper inventories [9] - The US private sector saw a notable decline in employment, with the ADP report indicating a drop of 19,000 jobs in the goods-producing sector [12] Group 4 - Guizhou Bailing's chairman is under investigation for insider trading, but the company asserts that this will not affect its operations [14] - The civil aerospace sector is advancing with the successful first flight of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket, marking a significant milestone for private space enterprises [16] - The tourism and aviation sectors are being encouraged to integrate, aiming to boost various niche markets such as senior and family tourism [17] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to see a year-end rally supported by policies, valuations, earnings, and liquidity, with a focus on macroeconomic stability and structural improvements [18][19][20] - Companies like Chongqing Construction and China Aluminum International have secured significant contracts, indicating robust demand in the construction and aluminum sectors [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a new bullish phase supported by four key dimensions: policy, valuation, earnings, and liquidity [1][6][8] Group 1: Policy Support - Coordinated policy efforts are creating a "safety net" for the market, with growth stabilization policies and capital market reforms providing clear expectations and institutional guarantees for the year-end market [1][6] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and cross-cycle regulatory policies, injecting momentum into the real economy and stabilizing the macro environment for the capital market [1][6] - The proposal to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market in the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to effectively counter external uncertainties and provide a solid policy foundation for the market's upward movement [1][6] Group 2: Valuation - Current A-share valuations are at historical lows, highlighting "cost-effectiveness" and providing a strong incentive for market entry [2][6] - The low valuation levels offer ample safety margins for capital allocation, serving as a crucial foundation for the market's upward trajectory [2][6] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The resilience of the real economy and improving profitability are fundamental supports for the market's upward movement, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][7] - Continuous optimization of the economic structure is providing high-quality growth targets for the capital market, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.6% year-on-year in the same period [3][7] Group 4: Liquidity - Ample and precise liquidity injections are essential for the market's activation, with the People's Bank of China employing various tools to maintain long-term liquidity and reduce financing costs [3][7] - The monetary policy is focused on "precision, coordination, and balance," directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation and green development, ensuring that funds effectively support economic recovery and corporate profitability [3][7] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The interplay of policy support, low valuations, improving earnings, and liquidity creates a comprehensive logic chain for the long-term positive outlook of the A-share market [8] - Despite potential short-term volatility, the multi-layered safety net formed by these four dimensions provides solid assurance for the ongoing market momentum [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with major indices declining, including the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3897.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68% to 13056.70 points, and ChiNext Index down 0.69% to 3071.15 points, with total trading volume decreasing by 280.5 billion yuan to 1.5934 trillion yuan [2] - The ice and snow economy concept is gaining traction, with stocks like Iceberg Cold and Snowman Group seeing significant increases, driven by a new initiative in Jilin Province that designates December 3-7, 2025, as "Ice and Snow Holiday" for students, promoting ice and snow sports [2] - According to a report by Tongcheng Travel, there has been a rapid increase in flight bookings to popular ice and snow destinations since November, indicating a growing interest in ice and snow tourism, with ski resorts and themed parks expected to be major attractions [3] Group 2 - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing a surge, with stocks like Tongyu Communication and Shunhao Co. experiencing consecutive gains, following the successful delivery of China's first rocket recovery platform, "Navigator," which enhances the country's capabilities in reusable rocket technology [4] - The National Space Administration has issued a plan for the high-quality development of the commercial aerospace industry from 2025 to 2027, aiming for significant growth and improved safety and innovation within the sector [5] - There is optimism for a year-end market rally in A-shares, supported by favorable conditions such as a vacuum in the fundamental market, rising policy expectations, and historical trends indicating upward movements during this period [6]

| 币种/持仓量 | 价格 | 24h变化 | | --- | --- | --- | | BTC 15 | | | | $566.1亿 -3.9% | 84567 | -7.84% | | ETH | 2748 | -9.69% | | $334.5亿 -7.7% | | | | SOL | 125 | | | $64.3亿 -12.1% | | -10.1% | | XRP | | | | $35.5亿 -10.8% | 2.01 | -8.8% | | HYPE | | | | $13.7亿 -6.0% | 29.88 | -10.1% | | BNB | 810.5 | -9.73% | | $12.4亿 -4.8% | | | 标普全球评级上周下调了全球最大稳定币USDT稳定性的评估，将其降至最低等级并警告称，如果比特币价格下跌，可能导致该代币抵押资产不足。 有分析师表示，包括USDT评级下调以及中国人民银行发出警告在内的"周末一连串利空因素"，重新加大了投资者对加密货币市场的担忧。 | 根据CoinGlass最新数据，过去24小时加密货币市场共有272437人爆仓，爆仓总金额为9.93亿美元。 | ...