戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ： （4.7-4.16），全球大类资产表现分化，黄金>发达>债券>新兴。（4.2- 4.4），对等关税落地当周，避险&风险资产普跌。（4.7-4.16），对等关税对于全球资产冲击的程度有所缓和， 但全球大类资产主线仍然围绕"避险交易"：避险资产的代表黄金已经率先企稳并大幅领涨；风险资产中，发达国 家和工业金属有所回补，而新兴市场表现仍偏弱。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 我们在 25.4.9 《谋定而后动，做多的三个时机》 中提示：事件冲击的大波动中，全力做多的时机通常有三个：（1）胜 率提升—本轮要看到贸易摩擦缓和（跟踪观察）；（2）估值极便宜（中国资产不贵）；（3）流动性问题导致筹 码出清（可以是阶段性）带来机会。短期维持全球资产宜保持避险策略（中债瑞郎黄金）的判断，仍然建议以全 天候策略框架构建资产组合。中长期而言，关税强化了新范式的三大底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、 AI产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving global economic landscape, particularly in light of intensified US-China trade tensions and their impact on market dynamics. It suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on undervalued assets and maintaining a diversified portfolio strategy to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of short-term exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, indicating a need for caution and a focus on low volatility, dividend, value, and quality factors [2]. - The recent surge in the Hang Seng Index basis, which exceeded 200 points, is a rare occurrence, having only happened 13 times since 2013. Historical data suggests that the performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to corporate earnings, with PPI (Producer Price Index) being a key indicator to track [2][8]. - The article notes that the Chinese government has taken significant measures to support the capital market amid escalating trade tensions, which positively influenced market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article outlines a three-pronged approach for identifying optimal investment opportunities during periods of market volatility: (1) observing signs of easing trade tensions, (2) identifying undervalued assets, and (3) recognizing liquidity issues that may lead to temporary market dislocations [3]. - A long-term strategy is recommended, focusing on a "global barbell strategy" that balances risk and return across various asset classes, particularly in the context of rising tariffs and the implications of a shifting global order [4]. - The article suggests maintaining a defensive asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of tracking US dollar liquidity as a leading indicator for market movements [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The article provides a detailed asset allocation model under the "All Weather Strategy," which includes varying proportions for different risk preferences, highlighting the importance of adjusting allocations based on market conditions [6]. - The model suggests a significant allocation to Chinese government bonds and convertible bonds, reflecting a preference for lower-risk assets in uncertain market conditions [6]. - The allocation percentages for various assets are tailored to different risk appetites, with specific adjustments made for volatility and correlation among asset classes [6].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言：我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示，港股周线6连阳后，短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨，反而应关注落后的低 波、股息、价值、质量因子。 我们在 25.4.8《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对》 提示中期投资者需要深刻解读世界秩序重塑的方向和权衡各类资产的性价比。 ● 中美贸易摩擦加剧中，中国政府采取了有力的维护资本市场的举措，对周二的市场产生了较好的提振作用。 而从美国与各国磋商贸易条件进展看，不排除特朗普延期 关税的可能。 ● 中国资产的风险偏好冲击在本周一达到了较为极端的水平。 恒指基差突破200点是历史罕见现象，2013年至今只出现过13次，本轮对等关税冲击下，恒指基差突破近 210点。复盘历史13次的经验，极端贴水（现货价格远高于期货）后港股市场的表现由企业盈利决定（PPI同比是较好的跟踪指标）：PPI回升—>港股反弹；PPI回落—> 港股回落。PPI与中美贸易条件的演变息息相关，需要继续跟踪关税问题的进展。 ● 全球资本市场目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on global assets and the shift from a "great moderation" to a "great volatility" in the global economy, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt their strategies accordingly [3][4]. Short-term Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, Swiss francs, gold, and dividend stocks before the implementation of tariffs on April 9 [4]. - Current market indicators suggest a decline in risk appetite, and liquidity metrics should be closely monitored for potential trading opportunities [4]. - Specific asset class assessments indicate that global equities and commodities remain under pressure, while U.S. equities are weak and U.S. Treasuries are strong, reflecting a preference for safety over inflation concerns [4]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - The tariffs reinforce three underlying logics of a new investment paradigm: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [5]. - The article suggests maintaining a balanced allocation of safe-haven assets to manage risk and return effectively, as the global economic landscape continues to evolve [5]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "All Weather Strategy" outlines different asset allocation percentages based on risk preferences, with a notable emphasis on Chinese government bonds and gold across varying risk profiles [7]. - For low-risk preference, the allocation includes 34.18% in Chinese government bonds and 8.51% in COMEX gold, while for high-risk preference, it suggests 14.16% in Chinese government bonds and 11.75% in gold [7].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 我们在25.2.28 《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示，港股周线6连阳后，短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆。 从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨，反而应关注落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子。 ● 部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对特朗普关税的底层逻辑存在误解。 疫情以来，全球从"大缓和"走 向"大波动"，G2在生产贸易（中国生产国VS美国消费国）、债务（中国私人高VS美国政府高）失衡突出，特朗 普政府企图通过非常规手段化解全球供给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑不可逆。 ● 特朗普关税对全球资产的影响？ 关税一阶段定价征税国家的"通胀效应"+被征税国家的"需求收缩效应"、二阶 段定价被征税国家的应对措施（货币财政）。 ● 短期而言：在4.9（对等关税生效日期）前，以避险资产（美债&中债、瑞郎、黄金、红利等）为宜。 当前关键 问题除了关注各国之间的贸易谈判，在金融市场上还要关注基本面的问题是否会转换成流动性的问题。当前， （VIX、AAII熊牛价差、BNP全球风险溢价等指标显示）风险偏好下 ...

Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 成长行情走到哪了？ 去年"924"以来，市场重回成长风格并且涨幅较大，但近期AI主线波动加大并出现了风格切换的迹象，部分成长行业如计算机指数已经调整至春节后科技 风格明显启动时的位置，基本抹去此前由DeepSeek突破带来的涨幅。较多投资者担忧估值高、交易拥挤、流动性紧等因素导致行情终结。本篇报告结合历 史复盘，归纳成长行情的重要影响因素，并结合产业发展规律与市场表现的总结出成长投资方法论，分析当前成长行情尤其是AI相关领域所处位置并给出 投资建议。 如何定义成长行业？ 成长行业通常有高增长特征，并在A股市场往往显现较高的估值，但成长行业的内涵随时代不断变迁，不同时期市场中的代表性行业 也会变化。我们认为分析成长行情需要明确主线，而非笼统看作整体，我们通常把成长风格划分为科技成长、制造成长和消费成长三大类，通常科技和制 造成长行情爆发性强但周期性也强，而消费成长稳定性和持续性更好。 3）产业的全球竞争力提升有重要的市场含义。 历史上中国的产业在全球竞争力提升，产业链中心向中国迁移时，资本市场通常有积极反映：一是中国公 司在全球市值占比提升，二是国际资金因偏好一国 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 开年以来，"Deepseek"触发中美科技此消彼长叙事，恒生科技为代表的中国科技资产领涨全球，而美股&美元表 现不佳。战略层面："Deepseek"带来中国科技资产的价值重估，但并未逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋 势）三大底层逻辑，因此，全球资产配置仍然是反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。而战术层面："全球杠铃策略"应该如何调整，来 应对"东升西落"的新叙事？ ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Deepseek" narrative on global asset allocation, emphasizing the rise of Chinese technology assets while U.S. stocks and the dollar perform poorly. It suggests a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation to navigate the changing dynamics of East rising and West declining [3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Stocks - U.S. stocks are expected to shift from low volatility to high volatility, leading to a reduction in their weight in asset allocation. The S&P 500 has maintained low volatility due to low correlation among its components, driven by the divergence between tech and non-tech stocks under the AI narrative [4][15]. - By 2025, factors such as mean reversion, recession pressures, and the breaking of the current AI trend will likely increase the correlation among S&P 500 stocks, resulting in higher volatility and necessitating a decrease in U.S. stock allocation [16][15]. Group 2: Chinese Stocks - Short-term, the Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, suggesting a wait for policy implementation and validation of the tech narrative. Historical data indicates that after such streaks, it is advisable to focus on lagging sectors like banks and utilities rather than chasing leading stocks [5][20]. - Long-term, the current rally in Chinese stocks is deemed healthier compared to previous policy-driven credit pulses. The weight of Chinese tech assets in portfolios should be increased, as the valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks remains historically high, indicating potential for narrowing [5][24]. Group 3: Chinese Government Bonds - Chinese government bonds have not transitioned to a bearish phase but require more attention to timing due to increased volatility. The shift from passive to active deleveraging in the private sector suggests that the downward space for bond yields will narrow [6][43]. - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.8%, pricing in a 20 basis point rate cut. A trading range of 1.6% to 1.9% is recommended for core transactions [6][44].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股： 短期事缓则圆，中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角，我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示： 周线6连阳后，港股短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆，等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块，反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子，如：银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角，本轮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "April Decision" as a critical period for economic and A-share performance verification, highlighting concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. and a cautious narrative surrounding AI advancements [1][2]. Short-term Adjustment Triggers - The "April Decision" window is approaching, with the first quarter reports for the economy and A-shares set to validate market fundamentals. China's export growth is expected to naturally decline, and the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. The effectiveness of fiscal policies remains to be seen [2][3]. - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. potentially imposing additional tariffs on China, which could exacerbate economic volatility and suppress risk appetite in the market [2][3]. - A temporary lull in AI advancements is noted, with cautious narratives emerging about the slow progress of large models and the lack of blockbuster applications. This has led to a phase of adjustment in the tech sector [2][3]. Key Influencing Factors of the "April Decision" - The performance verification period is crucial, with expectations for revenue and net profit improvements in the domestic AI computing power industry due to high capital expenditures from internet giants and operators. However, the market's pessimistic expectations for performance reports are unlikely to lead to significant adjustments [3][4]. - The anticipated economic verification in April is expected to have limited marginal impact on the market, as the current expectations for cyclical improvement are low [4]. - The release of a U.S. tariff report on April 1 and subsequent actions may limit the significance of the "bad news" effect, with ongoing concerns about potential tariff increases affecting market sentiment [4][5]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is seen as a process where large models and computing power mutually promote breakthroughs in applications. The current phase is characterized by waiting for blockbuster applications, with market adjustments expected to be limited in scope and duration [5][6]. - The market is currently focused on the potential for application innovations, with the possibility of new highs in technology following the realization of these applications [6][7]. Defensive Investment Strategy - In the second quarter of 2025, a defensive investment mindset is favored, with a focus on high-dividend assets that offer both absolute and relative returns. The technology sector is expected to maintain its upward trend, with continued interest in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy investment opportunities [6][7]. - The shift of Hong Kong stocks towards A-share characteristics is noted, with high-dividend stocks and internet companies in Hong Kong expected to perform well in their respective styles [7].