2月11日，国家统计局公布2026年1月份CPI和PPI数据。1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格 指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。受全国统 一大市场建设持续推进、部分行业需求增加及国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格 指数（PPI）环比上涨0.4%，同比下降1.4%。 核心CPI保持温和上涨 2026年1月，CPI同比增长0.2%，较前月下降0.6个百分点，居民消费价格增速小幅下行。不过，1月份核 心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变。 国联民生（601456）首席经济学家陶川表示，核心CPI已经萌生出通胀"开门红"迹象。2026年1月核心 CPI环比上涨0.3%，创近6个月新高，其结构性走强印证年初居民消费需求逐步改善，为后续通胀温和 修复提供重要支撑。一方面，开年促消费政策效果持续显现，家用器具、日用杂品等价格延续上行，商 品消费稳步修复；另一方面，节前出行、文娱等服务需求逐步释放，带动旅游、影视、家政服务价格明 显升温，服务消费复苏势头更为强劲。随着2月正式进入春节消费旺季，涨价迹象有望进一步凸显。 中国民生银行首席经济学 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 通胀上行加快 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 通胀上行加快。1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，连续第二个月环比正增长；其中核心 CPI（不包含食品和能源）环比为 0.3%，属 6 个月以来最高，高于春节分布相近的 2015、2018 年 1 月。1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，属于 2022 年 5 月 以来高点。 据万得数据（下同），1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，持平前值。 1 月核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，高于前值的 0.2%，持平于 2023 年 1 月的 0.4%，属于 2025 年 8 月以来最高。春节 分布相近的 2015 年、2018 年，核心 CPI 环比均为 0.2%。 1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，持平于 2023 年 9 月，属 2022 年 5 月以来高 ...

2026 年 02 月 10 日 AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（腊月初六到腊月十九），水 泥发运率、磨机运转率处于农历同期历史中高位，石油沥青装置开工率处于农历 同期历史低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年农历同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（腊月 初六到腊月十九），整体工业开工率仍处农历同期历史中高位。化工链中 PX 开 工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽车钢胎开工率处于同期历史 中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，家电销售有所回暖。最近两周(腊月初六到腊月十九)， 螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求处于历史同期低位。乘用车四周滚动销量同比延续 负增，中国轻纺城成交量回升至历史中高位，主要家电销售有所回暖。 商品价格：国内工业品价震荡偏强运行 相关研究报告 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 《 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.23%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.21% [1] - Tencent Music increased by over 3%, Bilibili rose nearly 2%, and Kuaishou gained over 1%, while SMIC fell by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities noted that despite accelerated inflow of southbound funds, overall trading volume in Hong Kong stocks has decreased, affected by global tech stock capital expenditure concerns, indicating short-term high volatility risks [1] - Xing Cheng, manager of the Hengsheng Qianhai Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Mixed Fund, believes the market may trend upwards amid fluctuations in the medium term, suggesting a focus on the AI industry chain, internet, software and hardware sectors, as well as favorable supply-demand dynamics in the metals cycle [1] - Zhao Wenli, chief economist at Jianyin International, assessed that the valuation repair of Hong Kong stocks is nearly complete, with the investment logic shifting from "valuation repair" to "new productive forces" valuation reassessment [1] Group 3 - Analyst Fu Yuan from Dongfang Caifu Securities emphasized that Hong Kong stock valuations remain at historical lows, with the Hang Seng Index PE at only 12 times, and the continuous inflow of southbound funds can not only boost sentiment but also enhance the pricing power of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks, mitigating the impact of overseas volatility [1]

2月10日，AI产业链方向延续涨势，Kimi、AIGC、WEB3.0等概念涨幅居前。截至收盘，上证科创板人工智能指数上涨2.0%，中证科创创业 人工智能指数上涨1.6%，中证人工智能主题指数上涨0.9%。 华泰证券认为，人工智能行业正处于快速发展阶段，技术创新和应用场景不断拓展。随着政策支持力度的加大以及市场需求的增长，人工 智能产业链将迎来新的发展机遇。特别是中上游的基础技术领域如芯片、算法框架等，将成为未来投资的重点方向，人工智能的长期投资 价值显著。 每日经济新闻 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或 完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

2026年2月10日早盘，截至10:06，中证500质量成长指数上涨0.38%，成分股豪迈科技上涨5.85%，网宿 科技上涨4.97%，烽火通信上涨4.34%，恺英网络上涨3.99%，光迅科技上涨3.58%。500质量成长 ETF(560500)上涨0.15%。（文中所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况 不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化，投资 需谨慎） 据Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证500质量成长指数前十大权重股分别为巨人网络、厦门钨 业、西部矿业、通富微电、天山铝业、湖南黄金、杰瑞股份、白银有色、睿创微纳、宏发股份，前十大 权重股合计占比25.23%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况 不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场 有风险，投资需谨慎） 500质量成长ETF(560500)，场外联接(联接A：007593；联接C：007594)。 风险提示："中证500质量成长指数(930939)由中证指数有限公司（"中证"）编制和计算 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the decision-making dilemma for investors in the Hong Kong stock market regarding whether to hold stocks or cash as the market approaches the Chinese New Year holiday, with a prevailing sentiment leaning towards holding stocks due to the noticeable "calendar effect" before the holiday [1][2]. Group 2 - The "calendar effect" in the Hong Kong stock market is similar to that of the A-share market, with historical data indicating an 82% probability of the Hang Seng Index rising in the last three trading days before the holiday. However, the probability of an increase in the month following the holiday drops to about 60% [2][3]. - A review of the past decade shows that the probability of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising in the week before the holiday is 70%, 90%, and 70% respectively, while the probabilities for the week after are 60%, 70%, and 70% respectively, indicating a decline post-holiday [3]. - Changes in pricing logic for the Hong Kong market are noted, with a significant decrease in correlation with the US market and a stronger correlation with the A-share market, suggesting that if the A-share market experiences a strong rally, the Hong Kong market may follow suit [3]. Group 3 - The AI industry chain and other technology sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for brokers, with the Hang Seng Tech Index recently breaking through its annual line, indicating a release of emotional suppression. This could lead to a recovery in market sentiment and capital inflow [4]. - The research suggests that the valuation attractiveness of the Hong Kong market has increased after recent adjustments, with expectations of a fluctuating upward trend around the Chinese New Year. Key sectors to watch include consumer, precious metals, energy, and technology, particularly those benefiting from AI advancements [5].

当港股市场，尤其是科技板块迎来阶段性调整时，一股"热钱"却汹涌南下。 Wind数据显示，截至2月6日的7个交易日内，南向资金连续净流入，累计达637亿港元。其中，2月4日至2月6日连续三个交易日单日净买入额 均超百亿港元，2月5日更是录得250亿港元。近期，南向资金大手笔"抄底"科技与金融龙头，引发市场高度关注。 21世纪经济报道特约记者 庞华玮 在港股持续调整之时，近期南向资金超600亿港元的逆势涌入成为最瞩目的信号，港股市场底部之争再起。 格上基金研究员关晓敏指出，1月中旬以来恒生科技指数震荡下跌，2月初加速探底，而南向资金正是在加速下跌时期逆势大幅净流入。这一行 为表明南向资金对当前港股估值水平的认可。 从资金流向的结构来看，布局方向集中且明确。上一周（2月2日至2月6日，下同），南向资金净买入前四大行业分别为资讯科技业（71.24亿 港元）、金融业（60.84亿港元）、非必需性消费（51.41亿港元）和地产建筑业（41.46亿港元）。 个股方面，腾讯控股、小米集团-W分别获净买入60.77亿港元、31.05亿港元，成为最受青睐的对象。贝壳-W、工商银行、招商银行、华润置 地、美团-W等个股也获得了超过 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The capital expenditure plans of major US tech companies are significantly exceeding expectations, with projected spending reaching $610 billion by 2026, a 69.9% increase from 2025, raising concerns about potential shortages in commodities, semiconductors, and electricity [2] - The US job market is showing signs of cooling, with an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice (50 basis points) within the year, and nearly a 50% chance of three cuts (75 basis points) [2] - Global manufacturing is experiencing a synchronized expansion driven by the AI industry, with strong PMI growth in major economies, particularly in the US, India, and ASEAN regions [2] Group 2: Japanese Political Landscape - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved a significant victory in the Japanese House of Representatives elections, securing 316 seats, which gives them and their coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, a total of 352 seats, allowing them to push major legislation and constitutional amendments [3] - Market sentiment is divided regarding the future direction of Prime Minister Kishi's "responsible active fiscal policy," with close attention needed on the budget framework for the fiscal year 2027 [3] Group 3: US Stock Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.8%, primarily due to concerns over the uncertainty of AI investment returns and the potential disruption of the software industry by AI [4] - Despite recent declines, the outlook for US stocks remains positive, supported by strong earnings growth across a broad range of companies, with a shift from valuation expansion to profit improvement as the driving logic [4] Group 4: Currency and Bond Market Insights - The US dollar is expected to experience a downward trend followed by a recovery, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Europe, and ongoing uncertainties from former President Trump's policies [5] - The bond market showed strength, with the 10-year government bond yield declining to 1.8%, and expectations for a stable bond market with limited downward yield space due to inflationary pressures [11] Group 5: Chinese Economic Indicators - In the domestic real estate market, transaction volumes for new homes decreased by 29.4%, while second-hand homes saw a smaller decline of 6.8%, indicating a shift in demand towards the second-hand market [8] - Externally, export momentum is showing signs of recovery, with a 9.3% increase in port cargo throughput, although container shipping rates have declined by 4.5% [8] Group 6: A-share Market Outlook - February is anticipated to be a traditional bullish window for the A-share market, with historical data indicating higher performance post-Spring Festival compared to pre-festival [12] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, driven by profit improvements rather than valuation expansions, with sectors like technology manufacturing showing strong performance [12] Group 7: Hong Kong Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.02%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 6.51%, reflecting weakened risk appetite influenced by declines in US and A-share tech sectors [13] - Despite recent declines, leading tech companies in Hong Kong are expected to have strong fundamental support, suggesting limited downside potential [13]

随着港股市场进入春节假期前的最后交易时间段，"持股还是持币"成为当前投资者最核心的 抉择。 近日，多家券商研究所陆续发布关于春节行情的研判观点。根据证券时报记者梳理，多数券商机 构建议持股，主要因港股市场春节效应明显，市场情绪偏向乐观。 港股节前"日历效应"明显 港股市场和A股市场类似，在春节前后往往呈现一定的"日历效应"。近期，已有多家券商机构对 港股市场春节前后的市场表现进行了复盘。 机构数据显示，春节前恒生指数上涨的概率偏高。据广发证券策略团队分析历史数据，基于2010 至2025年恒生指数春节窗口的历史表现，节前最后三个交易日（T—3至T区间），指数上行概率 为82%。春节后一个月的交易窗口内，从均值曲线看，整体维持震荡上行，但这一均值上行更可 能由少数年份的较大涨幅贡献所驱动，使得节后上涨概率回落至约60%。 A股春季躁动一般是春节后至两会期间，背后的原因在于投资者出于规避春节假期间不确定性的 考虑而降低的仓位，节后可能回流；同时两会前夕往往是改革、宽松政策等预期比较高涨的时 期。 然而，春节后至两会的典型窗口并不天然适配港股，港股在春节后并未有明显的日历效应。对 此，广发证券策略团队表示，逻辑上看 ...