Group 1 - The Federal Reserve remains highly sensitive to inflation fluctuations, with ongoing price pressures from tariffs and immigration policies complicating anti-inflation trends [1] - The U.S. September CPI report is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, marking a 16-month high, which will test the Fed's monetary policy direction [2] - Japan's rising inflation, with the consumer price index accelerating to 2.9% in September, opens the door for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December [3] Group 2 - South Korea's GDP growth is projected to accelerate in Q3, with a median forecast of 1.0% quarter-on-quarter growth and 1.5% year-on-year growth, driven by government cash subsidies and strong exports [3] - The Malaysian ringgit is expected to trade around 4.20 against the U.S. dollar, with potential upward movement due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [4] - Russia's central bank may halt or slow its rate-cutting cycle due to inflation risks exacerbated by attacks on oil refineries and upcoming tax increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dalian's GDP for the first three quarters of the year has increased by 6.0% year-on-year, indicating a stable and positive economic performance [1] Economic Performance - The total GDP of Dalian for the first three quarters reached 724.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, consistent with the first half of the year and 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The primary industry added value was 37.03 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% year-on-year [1] - The secondary industry added value was 257.55 billion yuan, with an increase of 8.0% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 430.24 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.9% [1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial production showed steady improvement, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 12.8% year-on-year, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the first half of the year [1] - The service sector's added value reached 430.24 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% year-on-year, which is an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - The Bank of Thailand expects the "Khon La Khrueng Plus" co-payment scheme to boost GDP growth in Q4 of this year, projecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5% after a contraction in the previous quarter [1] - The central bank anticipates a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 1.3% in Q4, down from 1.5% in Q3, primarily supported by government stimulus measures aimed at encouraging shared healthcare costs and boosting domestic tourism [1] Sector Performance - The economic recovery is expected to be bolstered by an expansion in exports, driven by companies ramping up production and previously closed factories resuming operations [1] - Temporary production halts in various sectors, including oil, automotive, and alcoholic beverages, contributed to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in Q3 [1] Currency and Tourism - The Bank of Thailand has revised down its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively, due to domestic and international economic challenges [2] - Despite a strong Thai baht, which appreciated by 7.8% earlier this year, its recent depreciation of 4.4% against the US dollar has negatively impacted Thailand's export and tourism competitiveness [2] - The central bank projects an increase in foreign tourist arrivals in Q4, estimating a total of 33 million foreign visitors for the year, with expectations to rise to 35.5 million by 2026 [2] Chinese Tourist Recovery - Following a significant decline of 55% in April, the number of Chinese tourists is showing signs of recovery, with a projected reduction in decline to 28.9% this month [3] - The central bank forecasts that the number of Chinese tourists will reach 4.4 million by 2025 and increase to 6.6 million by 2026 [3]

Core Insights - Chile's mortgage rates are expected to take up to ten years to return to pre-social unrest levels of slightly above 2% [1] - Previous early pension withdrawals totaling $50 billion have exacerbated inflation and weakened capital market depth, leading to credit tightening and rising interest rates [1] - The positive signal from pension reform, which injects 4.5 percentage points of contributions into individual accounts, will have a slow downward impact on interest rates as funds gradually enter the financial system [1] - Achieving the anticipated interest rate target will depend on the coordination of future GDP growth and the formalization of the labor market [1]

经济观察网10月22日，湖南省统计局发布数据显示，根据地区生产总值统一核算结果，前三季度，全省 地区生产总值40240.56亿元、同比增长5.4%。其中，第一产业增加值3234.32亿元、增长4.2%，第二产 业增加值14328.27亿元、增长5.7%，第三产业增加值22677.97亿元、增长5.3%。 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Zinc shows a slight rebound [1] - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,850 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,939.5 dollars/ton, down 0.98% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 97,686 lots, an increase of 8,999 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 11,101 lots, an increase of 3,731 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 125,172 lots, an increase of 47,950 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 224,213 lots, a decrease of 58 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was 130 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 66,419 tons, a decrease of 898 tons; LME zinc inventory was 37,325 tons, a decrease of 700 tons [1] 2. News - China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. The Q3 growth rate dropped 0.4 percentage points from Q2 due to external and internal factors [2] - China's social consumer goods retail sales in September increased 3% year - on - year, slower than the 3.4% growth in August. The slowdown was affected by factors like the misaligned Mid - Autumn Festival [2][3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Economics - **Focus**: Economic performance and fiscal stimulus measures in China for Q4 2025 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Stabilization**: Q4 GDP is likely stabilizing at 4.6-4.7% year-on-year, supported by fiscal stimulus measures totaling Rmb500 billion announced by the Ministry of Finance [3][6] 2. **Industrial Production Surge**: A notable increase in industrial production was observed in September, rising by 1.5 percentage points to 6.7% year-on-year, attributed to additional working days and quarter-end adjustments [2][6] 3. **Weakening Demand**: Despite the industrial production increase, there is a continued slowdown in fixed asset investment and retail sales, indicating persistent demand weakness [2][6] 4. **Deflationary Pressures**: The GDP deflator remains at -1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing deflationary conditions in the economy [2][6] 5. **Nominal GDP Decline**: Nominal GDP has decreased by 20 basis points to 3.7% year-on-year, highlighting the impact of weakening demand [2][6] 6. **Fiscal Measures Impact**: The recent fiscal measures are expected to boost infrastructure capital expenditure in the coming months, aiding in stabilizing Q4 real GDP growth [3][6] 7. **Annual GDP Target**: The 5% annual GDP target is now considered largely achievable, reducing the likelihood of further significant stimulus measures for the remainder of the year [3][6] Additional Important Information 1. **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment year-to-date has shown a decline of 0.5%, with manufacturing and property sectors experiencing significant downturns [5][6] 2. **Retail Sales Performance**: Retail sales growth has slowed, with nominal growth at 3.0% in September, indicating a challenging consumer environment [5][6] 3. **Sector Contributions**: The primary industry contributed 4.0% to GDP growth, while the secondary and tertiary industries contributed 4.2% and 5.4%, respectively, showcasing varied performance across sectors [5][6] 4. **Future Outlook**: The economic outlook suggests that while Q4 may stabilize, the underlying issues of demand weakness and deflation remain critical challenges for the Chinese economy [2][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, a series of important economic data were released. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Although there are favorable conditions to achieve the annual target, there are also short - board issues such as slowdown in consumer spending growth, continued decline in real estate prices and volume, and further expansion of the decline in fixed - asset investment. It is expected that the possibility of introducing specific stimulus policies in 2025 is relatively small [6]. - For pure benzene, the fundamental drive is still downward, but the valuation is low. Short - term sanctions affect supply in central China, but overall supply is rising. Port inventories are decreasing smoothly in October, but the actual inventory is moderately high. The downstream demand for styrene is in a negative feedback channel, and short - term short positions should pay attention to taking profits [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - GDP: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters [6]. - Consumption: In September, China's social consumer goods retail sales grew 3% year - on - year, and the catering revenue of above - quota units declined 1.6%. The quarterly growth rate of residents' consumption expenditure slowed down significantly [6]. - Industry: In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% year - on - year, with better growth in equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing [6]. - Investment: From January to September, China's national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Continues to hit new highs, with a trend strength of 1 [11][17]. - Silver: The spot contradiction is alleviated, and the price rises and then falls, with a trend strength of - 1 [11][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: The reduction in warehouse receipts and inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 1 [11][21]. - Zinc: Shows a slight rebound, with a trend strength of 0 [11][24]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [11][26]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend strength of 0 [11][31]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina continues to be in surplus, with a trend strength of - 1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [11][33]. 3.2.3 Energy Metals - Nickel: Narrowly fluctuates in the short - term, and contradictions are still accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, and cost limits the downward space, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Carbonate lithium: The spot is in short supply, and the strong - side oscillation is expected to continue, with a trend strength of 1 [11][40]. 3.2.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are removed in the short - term, with a trend strength of 1 [11][44]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment declines, with a trend strength of 0 [11][44]. 3.2.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][48]. - Rebar: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. 3.2.6 Energy Chemicals - Coke: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. - Coking coal: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. 3.2.7 Others - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [14][64]. - Pure benzene: Fluctuates mainly in the short - term [14][63].

Hot News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started in Beijing on the morning of October 20, 2025. General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and explained the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Discussion Draft)" to the plenary session [2] - China and the United States are about to return to the negotiation table. US President Trump said that the US would list rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues to raise with China. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded that China's stance on handling China - US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars do not serve the interests of either side, and both sides should resolve relevant issues through consultations on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters. Specifically, it grew by 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. In the first three quarters, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and increased by 3% after excluding real estate development investment; the per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for Urea Futures Business of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" by adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product for small - and medium - granular urea. At the same time, the premium and discount and applicable regions of all alternative delivery products will be announced externally [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that the monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, and will be included in the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors [3] Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, live pigs, plastics, and asphalt [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Plate Performance - The night - session price changes of major commodity futures contracts and the position - increasing ratios are presented. Different commodity sectors have different price change rates, such as non - metallic building materials with a 2.96% increase, precious metals with a 30.84% increase, oilseeds and fats with a 10.19% increase, etc. [4] Plate Positions - The changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days are shown, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemical industry, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.63 | - 0.49 | 15.28 | | | SSE 50 | 0.24 | - 0.47 | 10.81 | | | CSI 300 | 0.53 | - 2.21 | 15.33 | | | CSI 500 | 0.76 | - 4.62 | 23.47 | | | S&P 500 | 1.07 | 0.70 | 14.51 | | | Hang Seng Index | 2.42 | - 3.71 | 28.91 | | | German DAX | 1.80 | 1.58 | 21.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 3.37 | 9.46 | 23.29 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.52 | 0.57 | 15.06 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.14 | 0.25 | - 0.75 | | | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.11 | 0.02 | - 0.83 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.04 | - 0.04 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.07 | - 1.37 | - 0.08 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.09 | - 8.00 | - 20.06 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.00 | 10.20 | 62.01 | | | LME Copper | 1.02 | 4.05 | 21.99 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 3.81 | 3.65 | 34.82 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.82 | - 9.09 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 27.64 | 19.77 | [6] Main Commodity Trends - Multiple charts show the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, etc., as well as the risk premiums of relevant stock indexes [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has recovered, while A-shares have continued to shrink in volume. The US government shutdown may end this week, and the market's concerns about the fiscal deadlock have eased. The US stock market has risen, and the price of gold has increased by over 2%. In China, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, laying a foundation for achieving the annual target. The A-share market has closed higher with shrinking volume, and the style has significantly shifted to dividend value. [2][3] - The price of precious metals has reached a new high, driven by the strong expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continuous hedging demand. The silver squeeze may end. The price of copper has rebounded due to China's stable economic growth. The price of aluminum has fluctuated due to stable macro and fundamental factors. The price of alumina has shown a weak oscillation due to the interaction between supply pressure and cost support. The price of zinc has slightly shifted upward due to the easing of trade tensions. The price of lead has oscillated at a high level due to tight regional supply. The price of tin has consolidated at a high level due to weak supply and demand. The price of industrial silicon has oscillated as demand awaits recovery. The price of lithium carbonate has oscillated due to the interweaving of long and short factors. The price of nickel has oscillated strongly due to the warm macro expectation. The prices of soda ash and glass have faced pressure due to the weakening of fundamentals. The price of steel has oscillated under pressure due to weak terminal data. The price of iron ore has oscillated weakly due to reduced arrivals and shipments. The price of soybean meal has oscillated weakly due to the progress of Brazilian soybean sowing and sufficient domestic supply. The price of palm oil has oscillated widely due to the narrowing increase in export demand. [4][6][8][9][10][12][15][16][18][20][23][24][25][26][29] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - This section presents the closing data of major futures markets for various metals, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, covering information such as closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions. [31] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - This part provides detailed industrial data for multiple metals, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals, such as contract prices, inventory changes, spot premiums and discounts, and price ratios between domestic and international markets. [32][35]