Group 1 - The preliminary value of Japan's July Services PMI is 53.5, an increase from the previous value of 51.7 [1] - The preliminary value of Japan's July Manufacturing PMI is 48.8, a decrease from the previous value of 50.1 [1]

Group 1 - The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Australia in July is reported at 51.6, an increase from the previous value of 50.6 [1]

Group 1 - Tesla is scheduled to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes on July 24, 2025 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech at 11:05 AM [1] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 8:15 PM [1] Group 2 - Various PMI data will be released, including Germany's manufacturing PMI at 3:30 PM and the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI at 4:00 PM [1][1] - The UK will also release its manufacturing and services PMI data at 4:30 PM [1] - The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 at 8:30 PM [1]

This Week's Key Focus - On July 21 at 09:15, the People's Bank of China is expected to announce that the 1-year LPR remains at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% [2][4] - On July 24 at 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged benchmark rate [2][15] - On July 25 at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of June's durable goods orders [2] - On July 27 at 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits, with the previous value showing a 9.1% year-on-year decline and a 1.1% cumulative decline from January to May [2][19] - Other factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials may impact the futures market [2] This Week's Hotspot Preview July 21 - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the achievements of building a transportation powerhouse during the '14th Five - Year Plan' [3] July 22 - At 15:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the first - half 2025 foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data [5] - At 20:30, Fed Chair Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting, a rare 'live speech during the quiet period' [8] July 23 - At 22:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July consumer confidence index, expected to be - 14.5 [9] - At 22:00, the US National Association of Realtors will announce June's existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4 million households and an annualized monthly rate of - 0.7%. Lower values may suppress non - ferrous metal futures prices [10] - At 22:30, the EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending July 18. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [11] July 24 - At 9:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - July market prices of important production materials [12] - At 16:00, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.8. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [13] - At 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by President Lagarde at 20:45 [15] - At 20:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, expected to be 215,000. A slight decrease may slightly boost non - gold and non - silver industrial product futures but suppress gold and silver futures [14] - At 21:45, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 53.5. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [16] - At 22:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce June's new home sales, with an expected seasonally adjusted annualized total of 650,000 households and an annualized monthly rate of 4.3%. Higher values may boost non - ferrous metal futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] July 25 - At 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of June's durable goods orders, expected to be - 11%. A significant decrease may suppress non - ferrous metal futures but boost gold and silver futures [18] July 27 - At 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 - trillion repurchase, the bond yields decline. The bond market will continue the short - term volatile pattern, and maintain the bull - market foundation in the medium and long term supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is neutral as the repurchase rate rebounds and the bond futures prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.53 and a growth rate of 0.54%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1751, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.05%; DR007 is 1.57, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.19%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.06%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with an increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.06% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), trading - to - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds and the treasury bond issuance situation [6][7]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Multiple charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance situation [31][33][36]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spread of futures [40][43][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [46][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trends of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76].

Export Data - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, surpassing market expectations of 5.0%[2] - The trade surplus reached $114.77 billion, compared to $103.22 billion in the previous month[2] Import Data - Imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%[2] - The increase in imports was supported by a low base effect and resilient export performance, with the import volume showing significant growth[4] Export Drivers - The recovery in export growth was partly due to the delayed impact of the US-China tariff suspension, with the year-on-year decline in exports to the US narrowing by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1%[3] - Demand for re-export from ASEAN countries continued to rise, although future costs may increase due to the US-Vietnam tariff agreement[3] Import Trends - Strong demand for high-end manufacturing imports, such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, contributed approximately 1.8 percentage points to import growth[4] - The import growth of most energy and mineral products was affected by price factors, particularly for copper[4] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to benefit from the tariff suspension in the short term, but pressure may emerge by the end of Q3 2025 due to elevated base effects and potential shifts in US demand[5] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties and unexpected changes in economic policies that could impact market sentiment[5]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2200 points. The 08 contract has upward potential due to the expected peak - season price increase, while the 10 - month contract, being a traditional off - season, presents short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2200 points. Most airlines maintained stable July quotes, with the median of the quotes from major airlines (except Maersk) in the second half of July around $3660. The market is watching Maersk's quote and the 8 - month quotes of other airlines. The expected peak - season price increase is being repaired, and considering good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the 08 contract has upward space, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - Market situation from June 30 to July 4: The China export container shipping market was stable, with ocean routes showing a differentiated trend and the composite index adjusting. China's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 5.3% from the previous period [9]. - European routes: The eurozone's May unemployment rate was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The market freight rate increased slightly, with the Shanghai - to - European basic port market freight rate at $2101/TEU on July 4, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American routes: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The transport demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot market booking price continued to decline. The Shanghai - to - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2089/FEU and $4124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [10]. - Geopolitical events: Houthi rebels launched an attack on Israel on July 6. The US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran said the damage was not as serious as the US claimed. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, and China condemned the US attack [10]. 3.3数据概览 - **集运现货价格**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04, up 6.3% from June 30; for US West routes, it was 1557.77, down 3.8% from June 30 [12]. - **集运指数（欧线）期货行情**: Provided data on trading of several contracts on July 8, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6]. - **航运相关数据走势图**: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79745 with a basis of 125, indicating a premium over futures, which is considered neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 5100 to 102500 tons on July 8, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3039 tons to 84589 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, but the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the Fed's slowdown in interest rate cuts, high - level inventory reduction, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, and geopolitical disturbances, and a 50% US copper tariff overnight, market volatility has intensified [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Copper fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts, scrap copper policy changes, and stable manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over futures [2]. - Inventory changes are neutral as both total and SHFE inventories increased [2]. - The price trend is bullish as the closing price is above the rising 20 - day moving average [2]. - The main players' position is bearish with a net short position that is decreasing [2]. - Market expectations are volatile due to Fed policy, inventory changes, trade tariffs, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22]. Other Data - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. - Processing fees are falling [16].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index further rebounded above 2,200 points. The peak - season price increase expectation has started to recover, and with good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the price increase in the peak season is expected to materialize. The 08 contract still has some upward space, while the 10 - month is a traditional off - season, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low levels [8]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2,200 points. Most airlines maintained stable quotes in July, with the median of the second - half - of - July quotes around $3,660. There are few airlines that have quoted for August. The peak - season price increase expectation has recovered, and the 08 contract has upward potential, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities [8]. 4.2 Industry News - Market Conditions (June 30 - July 4): The China Export Container Shipping Market remained stable, with the comprehensive index adjusting. The manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The non - manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The Shanghai - to - Europe basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,101/TEU, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US manufacturing PMI in June was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The Shanghai - to - US West and East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2,089/FEU and $4,124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: Houthi attacks on Israel, US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and relevant responses from China and the international community [10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 7, 2025 | June 30, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai - Europe (Basic Ports) | 2,258.04 | 2,123.24 | 134.8 | 6.3 | | Shanghai - US West (Basic Ports) | 1,557.77 | 1,619.19 | - 61.42 | - 3.8 | [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data of multiple contracts on July 8 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The market uptrend is expected to continue, supported by technical indicators and optimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.19, lower than the previous week (1.36), indicating current market liquidity is 1.19 times above the average level of the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.79 from 0.95, reflecting increased investor optimism regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.98% and 1.62%, respectively, maintaining trading activity at 66.75% and 75.52% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly increases of 0.05% and 0.12%, respectively [2]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5 and above the expected 49.3; the Caixin manufacturing PMI for June was 50.4, higher than the previous 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke above the SAR indicator on June 24, signaling a buy [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 228, placing it in the 88.8% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 3 out of 5, with both trend and weighted models indicating positive signals [2]. Market Performance - The SSE 50 index rose by 1.21%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 index went up by 0.81%, and the ChiNext index gained 1.5% during the last week [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.0 times, positioned at the 60.1% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observations - The crowding degree for high earnings growth factors has significantly increased [3]. - The crowding degrees for small-cap factors, low valuation factors, high earnings factors, and high earnings growth factors are 0.66, -0.10, -0.21, and 0.15, respectively [3]. - The industry crowding degrees are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, retail, and non-bank financial sectors, with construction materials and steel showing notable increases [3].