投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/4/18 数据日报 | 指标 | | 4月17日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 650 | -161 | 2500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | 670 | -121 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | | | | | 日照 | 400 | -221 | 500 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | | | -500 5月21日 | 6月21日 | 7月21日 8月21日 | 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 | | 1月21日 | 2月21日 3月21日 | 4月21日 | | (对主 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market fluctuates greatly, with a rebound after a decline. Tariff sentiment remains the short - term key. In the stainless - steel industry chain, nickel ore and nickel iron prices are still firm, and the overall cost line continues to rise steadily. Stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly. In the new energy sector, the automobile production and sales data in February are good, which has a positive impact on the new energy industry chain. In the long - term, the surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged. In the short - term, the cost support below is also very important. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2505 will operate in a weak and volatile manner. Attention should be paid to whether it can return to the cost line [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price drops. In the short - term, the nickel ore price is strong, and the Indonesian ore is still in short supply. The nickel iron price rises steadily, and the cost line remains firm and continues to move up. The stainless - steel inventory decreases. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2505 will operate in a weak and volatile manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: On April 7, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,640, down 8,690 from April 3; the LME Nickel was 14,440, down 205 from April 4. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot was 122,600, down 6,500 from April 3; the 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,050, down 6,000 from April 3; the 1 imported nickel was 121,350, down 6,900 from April 3; the nickel bean was 120,700, down 7,000 from April 3 [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: On April 7, the stainless - steel main contract was 12,910, down 520 from April 3. The cold - rolled 304*2B stainless - steel in Wuxi was 13,950, down 200 from April 3; in Foshan was 14,050, down 100 from April 3; in Hangzhou was 14,000, down 200 from April 3; in Shanghai was 14,100, down 200 from April 3 [10]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of April 7, the LME nickel inventory was 202,308, an increase of 2,058 from April 3; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 27,166, a decrease of 205 from April 3. The total inventory was 229,474, an increase of 1,853 from April 3 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On April 3, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 658,400 tons, the Foshan inventory was 339,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,087,500 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 73,260 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons from the previous period. As of April 7, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 202,260, an increase of 182 from April 3 [17][18]. **Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron** - **Nickel Ore**: On April 7, the CIF price of red - clay nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, down 0.5 from April 3; the CIF price of red - clay nickel ore with Ni0.9% was 31.5 US dollars per wet ton, down 0.5 from April 3. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 9.75 US dollars per ton, down 1 from April 3; the sea freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 10.5 US dollars per ton, down 1.25 from April 3 [20]. - **Nickel Iron**: On April 7, the price of high - nickel iron was 1,022 yuan per nickel point, down 8.5 from April 3; the price of low - nickel iron was 3,600 yuan per ton, down 100 from April 3 [20]. **Stainless - Steel Production Cost** - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,659; the production cost using scrap steel was 13,927; the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 16,833 [22]. **Nickel Import Cost** - The calculated import price of nickel was 117,441 yuan per ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On April 2, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,680 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.41%, and the position increasing by 1,459 lots to 28,096 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 1,680 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,760 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.2%, and the position decreasing by 17,564 lots to 292,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 553 dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. There were news of joint production cuts in the industry. Before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, some short positions in industrial silicon began to exit, and the short-term futures market showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The inventory destocking in the component segment was slow, suppressing the upward transmission elasticity of demand, and the high inventory restricted the rebound space. Under the structural mismatch pressure between short-term demand recovery and medium-term supply increase, the spread between near and far months of polysilicon still had room to widen. After the festival, continue to pay attention to the delivery progress and downstream production scheduling rhythm. During the festival, it is recommended to control positions and hold light positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon was volatile and slightly stronger on April 2, while industrial silicon was volatile and slightly weaker. There were joint production cut news in the industry, and short-term industrial silicon futures showed signs of stabilizing. The slow inventory destocking in the component segment restricted demand transmission, and the polysilicon spread had room to widen. Attention should be paid to delivery and production scheduling after the festival, and positions should be controlled during the festival [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,785 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, with the lowest deliverable product 553 at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt was 69,710 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to 43,680 yuan/ton. The N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 1,680 yuan/ton [4] - **Organosilicon**: The DMC price in the East China market was 14,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][26]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply of crude oil has tightened and oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in asphalt prices. Shandong spot prices have slightly increased, and the futures market has strengthened slightly. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline, while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall inventory remaining relatively stable. The market is generally showing marginal improvement. [1] - The market in the north is tight, while in the east and south, it is relatively loose. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production scheduled for April. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak purchasing in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. [1] - It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant - end contracts such as the 09 contract. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Review - Shandong spot prices have remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market has shown fluctuations, and crack spread profits are at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong have slightly increased. The daily production of asphalt is 6.3 (+0) million tons. [1] Price and Spread Data - The report presents price data for various asphalt - related items from March 27 to April 2, 2025, including prices of Shandong spot, asphalt futures, Korea's CIF price in East China, and Shandong coker feedstock, as well as data on spreads and basis. [1] - It also shows multiple seasonal charts of asphalt, such as basis seasonality for different contracts (06, 09, 12), 9 - 12 month spreads, refinery comprehensive costs for a certain type of asphalt, the ratio of Singapore asphalt to fuel oil, import profits in East China, and comparisons between coker feedstock, petroleum coke, and asphalt prices, as well as data on asphalt's operating rate, social inventory rate, and warehouse receipt seasonality. [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of logs remains, and the overall demand is under pressure, with spot prices continuously decreasing. The current valuation of the log futures is moderately low, and the possibility of a deep decline is limited. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 820 - 860 yuan per cubic meter. Attention should be paid to information related to log futures delivery on April 1st [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on March 28th compared to March 27th, with declines of -0.48%, -0.41%, and -0.94% respectively. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased, and the spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 contracts changed. Spot prices of most log varieties in ports remained stable, while some in Taicang Port decreased [2] - The import theoretical cost increased slightly from 862.94 yuan on March 27th to 863.52 yuan on March 28th, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also increased slightly [2] Supply - Monthly port throughput increased by 50.98% from 131.1 million cubic meters on December 31st to 197.9 million cubic meters on February 28th. The number of ships in the port increased by 18.37% from 49 to 58 [2] - Weekly log inventory in major ports increased. As of March 21st, the inventory in China was 364 million cubic meters, a 4.30% increase from March 14th. In Shandong and Jiangsu, the inventories also increased [2][3] Demand - Weekly average daily log出库量 decreased. As of March 21st, the average daily log出库量 in China was 6.42 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from March 14th. In Shandong, it increased by 2%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 2% [2][3]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...