证券分析师：王艺熹 021-60893204 wangyixi@guosen.com.cn S0980522100006 证券研究报告 | 2025年7月1日 转债市场研判及"十强转债"组合 2025年7月 投资策略 · 固定收益 国信宏观固收 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 02 2025年7月转债配置策略 联系人：吴越 021-60375496 wuyue8@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 01 2025年6月转债市场回顾 03 2025年7月"十强转债"组合 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 股市方面，6月权益市场震荡上涨，尤其下旬在中东局势缓和、以及稳定币、小米汽车、军 贸等多项热点题材的催化之下，沪指再次站上3400点，截至6月27日沪指收于3424.2，全月 涨1.85%。申万一级行业多数收涨，受产业订单预期向好拉动的通信（+12 ...

Group 1 - The A-share technology sector experienced a strong opening on July 1, with the semiconductor industry chain leading the gains, particularly in areas such as photolithography machines and advanced packaging [1][7] - Several stocks, including Kai Mei Te Qi and Hai Li Shares, reached their daily limit, while Blue Ying Equipment surged over 16% and Jiu Ri New Materials increased by over 5% [2][3] - The semiconductor and chip concepts have seen a wave of limit-up stocks, with significant gains in the photolithography machine sector, which has risen over 11% in the last seven trading days [4][5] Group 2 - Recent market rumors suggest a major breakthrough in domestic EUV photolithography machines, with reports indicating that the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund is adjusting its focus to address key shortcomings in photolithography machines and EDA software [7] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance, with recent meetings highlighting the need to accelerate breakthroughs in core technologies and enhance national security [8][9] - The semiconductor wafer manufacturing equipment market in mainland China is projected to reach over 230 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 19.4% [9] Group 3 - SEMI forecasts that by 2025, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic chip equipment will reach 50%, with full coverage of 14nm processes, reducing dependence on equipment from the US, Japan, and Europe [10] - The outlook for domestic substitution is promising, with strong momentum in the artificial intelligence sector, and J.P. Morgan predicts a potential 15%-20% increase in Asian tech stocks this year [11] - Minsheng Securities notes that the high-end photolithography machine market is currently dominated by ASML, Nikon, and Canon, indicating a significant market opportunity for domestic breakthroughs in certain categories [13] Group 4 - The domestic semiconductor industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with companies across various sectors, including materials, equipment, and chip design, actively pursuing consolidation strategies [14] - Mergers are seen as a core strategy for companies to quickly acquire key technologies and maintain market competitiveness, especially in the context of accelerating domestic substitution [15]

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, rose by 0.78% as of July 1, 2025, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as LianTong Technology (up 5.79%) and ZhongChuan Special Gas (up 5.19%) [1] - The Semiconductor Materials ETF (562590) also saw a rise of 0.72%, with the latest price reported at 1.12 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 2.69% over the past week [1] - Moer Thread Intelligent Technology's IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been accepted, aiming to raise approximately 8 billion yuan, marking the largest IPO of the year [1] Group 2 - The Semiconductor Materials ETF closely tracks the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, which includes 40 listed companies deeply involved in the semiconductor materials and equipment sectors [2] - The index features leading companies that have made significant breakthroughs in domestic substitution processes, such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company in etching equipment, and Hu Silicon Industry and Nanda Optoelectronics in key materials [2] - The ETF reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the semiconductor materials and equipment sectors, highlighting the trend of self-sufficiency and upgrading within the semiconductor industry [2]

半导体作为现代电子技术的核心材料，一直是战略新兴产业的代表，国内半导体面临美国的围追堵截，但在政策扶持下持续攻坚。 不少国产半导体龙头先后登陆科创板上市，用高研发投入驱动业绩增长。 科创半导体ETF(588170)正是聚焦于科创板半导体龙头的指数投资工具，自今年4月上市以来，持续受到市场关注。 01 半导体行业是什么？ 在A股里，半导体一直是一个热度居高不下的板块。 在2019-2021那波大行情里，吃药喝酒半导体就被称为股市的三驾马车，一时风头无两。 投资时间稍微长一些的朋友应该还有印象：国产替代和自主可控就是在这一轮行情里成为了驱动半导体板块的长期逻辑。 而在2023年后，伴随着人工智能的强势崛起，算力需求驱动半导体板块再次升温。同时，海外供应时不时的受限也成为了半导体板块的"例行"催化剂，比 如一条深夜的推特发言。 （来源：中商产业研究院，民生证券） 设备方面，主要环节国产化率不足30%，其中光刻机更是不到1%。 尽管半导体板块一直都很"热闹"，但由于这个行业门槛较高，又离生活比较远，很多朋友可能并不是特别熟悉。 其实，半导体指室温下导电性能介于导体与绝缘体之间的材料。正是由于这种可导可不导的可控导电性 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai Jier New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leader in the modified engineering plastics sector, focusing on innovation to break international technology monopolies and reshape the automotive parts industry [1][2] - The company has achieved significant advancements in modified nylon 66 materials, enhancing performance in extreme temperatures and high humidity, thus improving production efficiency and reliability [2][3] - Jier New Materials emphasizes a complete closed-loop system in R&D, production, certification, and standard formulation, achieving international quality standards and gradually replacing imported materials [3] Company Overview - Established in 2010, Jier New Materials specializes in high-performance structural safety materials for the automotive industry, targeting the mid-to-high-end market with core products including modified PA6, PA66, PP, and PPO [2] - The company has gained recognition from major automotive manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Volkswagen, and BYD, establishing a strong market reputation [2] Innovation and Development - The company has developed high-temperature, corrosion-resistant, and high-toughness materials for new applications in electric vehicles, 5G communication modules, and autonomous driving components [3] - Jier New Materials has set a new industry benchmark with a 98% qualification rate in early projects, gaining the trust of major automotive players [3] Social Responsibility and Future Plans - The company integrates social responsibility into its development strategy, collaborating with universities for joint R&D and establishing a clean production system [4] - Looking ahead, Jier New Materials aims to focus on the new energy industry chain, including battery materials and 5G base station components, contributing to the evolution of China's manufacturing from import substitution to standard definition [4]

Core Insights - The development of dexterous hands is crucial for humanoid robots, serving as the "last centimeter" in their transition from rigid execution to intelligent interaction [1] - Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot, equipped with a 22-degree-of-freedom dexterous hand, is entering trial production, aiming for mass production of thousands by 2025, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of this technology [1][3] Industry Overview - The global market for dexterous hands is projected to exceed $1.7 billion in 2024 and approach $2 billion in 2025, driven by the demand for humanoid robots [3] - The cost of dexterous hands currently accounts for approximately 17% of the total cost of humanoid robots, highlighting its role as a critical bottleneck for performance breakthroughs [3] Technological Advancements - The transition from simple two-finger grippers to humanoid multi-finger structures is being driven by increasing industrial demands for precision [3] - Innovations in drive solutions, such as the use of brushless gear motors and hybrid designs, are being explored to balance cost and torque requirements [7] - The integration of multi-modal sensors, including six-dimensional force sensors and flexible electronic skin, is enhancing the sensory capabilities of dexterous hands, allowing for near-human-level performance in tasks like assembly and adaptive grasping [8] Material Innovations - The use of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) fibers is becoming mainstream for tendon systems, offering significant strength and durability advantages [10] - Chinese companies are rapidly advancing in the development of tendon systems, with innovations in anti-creep technology and self-lubricating coatings [11] Competitive Landscape - The supply chain for dexterous hands is evolving, with companies like Nanshan Zhishang and Tongyizhong entering the market with competitive products [11][14] - The upcoming mass production of Tesla's Optimus will serve as a critical test for the durability and reliability of these technologies in real-world applications [12]

Core Viewpoint - The MOSFET industry in China is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand from sectors such as consumer electronics, communication, industrial control, and automotive electronics, with a projected market size of 42.944 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.67% [1][11]. Industry Overview - MOSFET (Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistor) is a semiconductor device that controls current using electric fields, consisting of a metal gate, an insulating oxide layer, and a semiconductor substrate [2]. - The industry has evolved through four main stages, from initial development before 2010 to the current phase of domestic substitution, where local manufacturers are increasingly producing high-end products [4][5]. Industry Development History - The industry has transitioned from a pioneering phase before 2010 to a period of local alliances from 2011 to 2013, followed by structural reforms from 2014 to 2016, and now to a phase of domestic substitution since 2017 [4][5]. Industry Supply Chain - The upstream of the MOSFET industry includes raw materials and production equipment, while the midstream focuses on manufacturing, and the downstream applications span automotive electronics, consumer electronics, industrial control, and communication devices [7]. Market Size - The demand for MOSFETs is rising due to the proliferation of 5G technology, the boom in the electric vehicle market, and increasing industrial automation [11]. - The performance of silicon-based MOSFETs is improving, and third-generation semiconductor devices like SiC MOSFETs are being commercialized, enhancing charging efficiency and range for electric vehicles [11]. Key Companies' Performance - The competitive landscape of the MOSFET industry is characterized by dominance from overseas giants like Infineon and ON Semiconductor, while domestic firms such as Huazhu Microelectronics, Silan Microelectronics, and New Clean Energy are emerging as leaders [13]. - Huazhu Microelectronics reported a revenue of 2.355 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.29%, with a net profit of 83 million yuan, up 150.68% [14]. - Silan Microelectronics achieved a revenue of 11.221 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 20.14%, with R&D investment reaching 1.084 billion yuan, up 22.93% [16]. Industry Development Trends - The market size of the MOSFET industry is expected to continue expanding, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where demand for high-performance MOSFETs is increasing [18]. - Technological innovation is accelerating, with third-generation semiconductor materials like SiC and GaN gaining traction, promising higher efficiency and performance [19][20]. - The trend of domestic substitution is strengthening, with local companies improving their competitiveness and reducing reliance on foreign products, while also integrating the supply chain [21].

昨夜晚间，国产GPU公司摩尔线程和沐曦在证监会网站披露了其上市招股说明书。如沐曦在招 股说明书中所说，作为现代信息技术发展的物理基石和底层基础设施，GPU 具有高价值量、高 复杂度、高技术门槛和快速演进的特征，对企业自主研发、稳定供应和持续创新能力提出了较 高要求。 长期以来，我国算力基础设施被境外厂商所主导，国产替代潜力巨大。近年来，面对不断升级的地 缘政治摩擦和新一代人工智能革命，以发行人为代表的国内 GPU 厂商凭借创新的产品与技术参与 市场竞争，逐渐打破国外厂商垄断，实现了市场份额的不断提升，助力我国人工智能产业链从底层 技术上摆脱对国外算力资产的依赖，为推进新质生产力发展提供动力引擎。 在本文中，我们将摘取说明书中的内容，对该公司的一些关键数据进行对比。以下为文章正文： 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 公司介绍 摩尔线程 公司主要从事 GPU 及相关产品的研发、设计和销售。自 2020 年成立以来，公司以自主研发的全功 能 GPU 为核心，致力于为 AI、数字孪生、科学计算等高性能计算领域提供计算加速平台。公司已 成功推出四代 GPU 架构，并形成了覆盖 AI 智算、高性能计算、图形 ...

中国宏观经济展望 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策略会 20250630 摘要 中国经济正经历新旧模式交替，房地产拖累减小，技术进步加速，但物 价仍低迷，反映出经济转型初期不同领域表现不一，需综合分析宏观形 势。 中国劳动市场调整缓慢，劳动密度下降，收入增速放缓，影响消费和物 价，总需求偏弱，预计 2025 年下半年延续"准均衡"状态。 预计 2025 年下半年货币政策将侧重结构性工具，财政支出增加，出口 保持韧性，全年经济增长率预计在 5%左右，核心 CPI 逐步上升。 房地产与整体经济相关性减弱，家电销售不再完全依赖房地产，更多受 置换需求驱动，表明中国经济进入新模式。 中国经济结构变化显著，新经济、绿色经济、医药经济、生物医药和高 端制造比重上升，房地产比重下降，新兴行业 IPO 占比提高。 技术进步提升中国经济复杂度，接近全球最高端水平，出口结构与欧元 区、日本互补，国产化加速，减少进口需求。 2025 年一季度进口下降但对 GDP 有正贡献，反映需求走弱、经济结构 转型和国产替代效应，进口减少成为积极信号。 Q&A 当前中国宏观经济形势如何？ 当前中国宏观经济形势呈现出一些积极和谨慎的特点。房地产 ...

创新药产业链观点更新+25Q2 业绩前瞻 20250630 摘要 创新药产业链基本面逐步企稳回升，CXO 订单自去年开始复苏，中报业 绩表现出色，为核心细分领域。恒瑞、华东、中国生物制药等公司预计 二季度及全年业绩均实现双位数增长。 医保政策及行业会议成催化剂。医保目录调整、商保目录制定方案为潜 在增量因素，WCLC、ESMO 及 Ash 会议等行业大会以及 BD 项目落地 推动创新药发展。 市场情绪回落，可关注中大市值创新药公司如百济、恒瑞、信达、康方 和石药，以及迪哲、易方泽锦等中小市值公司。创新药产业链中，以出 海业务为主的 CDMO 公司业绩亮眼，如药明康德、药明合联和凯莱英。 药明康德全年收入目标 430 亿，预计增长 15%以上，净利润增速更快； 药明合联全年预期收入增速 35%以上；凯莱英全年预期收入增速 15% 以上。康龙化成 Q2 预计维持 10%左右的收入和利润增速。 国内条线公司业绩复苏较慢，上游已现复苏信号。百普赛斯和浩元医药 今年整体业绩良好，多数公司预期收入增速在 20%以上。器械板块多数 公司仍处于清库存状态，IVD 条线海外市场表现较好。 Q&A 2025 年第二季度医药板块的 ...