贵金属日报 | 2025-06-17 原油价格并未进一步走高 黄金陷入震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，据华尔街日报，中东和欧洲的官员说，伊朗一直在紧急发出信号，表示它寻求结束敌对状态，恢复有关其 核项目的谈判，并通过阿拉伯中间人向以色列和美国发出了信息。这些官员说，在以色列猛烈的空袭中，德黑兰 对阿拉伯官员说，只要美国不加入空袭，他们愿意重返谈判桌。周末发生的地缘政治冲突数据并未祸及霍尔莫斯 海峡的运输，而原油价格也并未进一步走高，同时美联储对于降息的态度仍然偏谨慎，美元逐步企稳。故黄金价 格昨日出现回落。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-16，沪金主力合约开于 798.40元/克，收于 792.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.26%。当日成交量为 228842手，持仓量为 176263手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 792.68 元/克，收于 785.78 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 下降1.37%。 2025-06-16，沪银主力合约开于 8801元/千克，收于 8858元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 571364手，持仓量 412329手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,864 ...

黄黄金金会会突突破破新新高高吗吗？？ 22002255年年66月月99日日--22002255年年66月月1133日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股上涨后回落，债市震荡走强，黄金强势攀升，波动放大主要与中东地区局势骤然升级 有关。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 以色列打击伊朗对全球资产产生震动，周五A股和港股受到影响，均回落，但全周来看市场 整体窄幅震荡。市值风格上，小微盘表现稍逊于大盘风格。行业上，有色金属、石油石化、 农林牧渔行业本周表现较好。成交金额上，沪深两市本周成交金额日均值相比上周明显提 升，小微盘的成交额占比比上周有所回落，但仍处于历史相对高位区间。 02 债市方面，债市方面，本周资金面保持宽松，债市震荡走强，十年国债收益率整体下行。资 金面上，尽管央行小幅回收流动性仍不改资金面延续宽松的格局，对债市较为有利。基本面 上，5月通胀数据同环比仍为负，显示价格改善有待时日，对债市较为有利。消息面上，中 美伦敦会议结束，核心内容为中美原则上达成协议框架，目前债市整体受关税影响边际减 弱，仅受小幅扰动。 海外方面，截至周四美股周度小幅收涨，前半周主要交易中美谈判，随后中东局势冲突升 级，黄金 ...

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in June unexpectedly rose to 60.5, significantly above the market expectation of 58 and much higher than May's 52.2, indicating a subtle change in American households' views on the economic situation and future prospects [1][3] - The index for current economic conditions increased to 63.7, up 8.1% month-over-month, while the future economic conditions index jumped from 47.9 to 58.4, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 21.9%, suggesting reduced concerns about the short-term economic outlook [3] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year dropped significantly from 6.6% in May to 5.1%, while the five-year long-term inflation expectation slightly decreased to 4.1%, indicating a downward trend that may provide more flexibility for monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Despite the short-term rebound in confidence, the overall confidence level remains low, influenced by fluctuating energy and food prices, high interest rates, and mortgage costs, which have significantly pressured American consumers' purchasing power [3][4] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in September or December may strengthen if inflation continues to ease and consumer confidence improves further [3] - The rise in consumer confidence in June serves as a positive signal for economic sentiment and provides short-term support for recent asset market fluctuations, but the sustainability of this optimism will depend on key economic data in the coming months, particularly in the labor market and core inflation [4]

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by Israel's new airstrikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the yen [1] - Currently, gold is the preferred choice for hedging geopolitical risks, overshadowing the U.S. dollar, which has seen a slight rebound but is not the main recipient of safe-haven flows [1] Group 2 - Despite the prevailing risk sentiment in the gold market, the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a key variable influencing long-term gold prices. The Fed maintained interest rates this week and hinted at possibly only one rate cut for the remainder of the year [3] - Market expectations suggest that if future inflation data declines more than anticipated or if the labor market shows signs of slowing, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, potentially providing new upward momentum for gold prices [3] Group 3 - The weekly bullish trend for gold is expected to continue, with significant upward potential. After a recent decline, gold prices have stabilized above the mid-range, indicating a strong upward trend [5] - Short-term price movements show a recent rise to 3447 followed by a correction to 3420, which is seen as a key support area. If this support is tested, it may present a buying opportunity [5] Group 4 - The outlook for next week suggests continuing to buy gold in the range of 3415-20, with a stop-loss at 08 and a target towards 3450-56 [7]

Market Overview - Recent recovery in US stock indices continues since the market bottomed out in early April, with the S&P 500 index rising 2.3% and the Nasdaq 100 index increasing 2.6% over the last 10 trading days [4][5] - Positive US employment data, a decline in inflation rates towards long-term targets, and progress in US-China trade talks have collectively supported the upward trend in the stock market [4][5] Industry Performance - The technology sector has shown strong performance, benefiting from the resilience of the US economy and the recent US-China trade negotiations, which have alleviated some market concerns regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [5][6] - The energy sector has also performed well, driven by rising international oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran [8][11] - Energy prices have been on the rise since April-May, with investors anticipating further increases if conflicts in the Middle East escalate, potentially impacting oil supply routes [8][11] Consumer Sector Challenges - The consumer sector, both essential and discretionary, has faced challenges due to the cost pressures from tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which have affected profit expectations [11][12] - Recent CPI data indicates a slowdown in inflation, with May CPI rising only 0.1% month-over-month, below market expectations, suggesting that consumer companies are hesitant to raise prices due to fears of losing customers [11][12] - The significant increase in customs tariff revenue, which surged 270% to $23 billion in May, reflects the impact of new tariffs, further complicating the outlook for consumer companies [11][12] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The recent decline in inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with some policy flexibility, potentially supporting the stock market [13] - However, the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be fully captured in the current data, and rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions could lead to a rebound in inflation [13] - Investors are encouraged to focus on structural opportunities within the market, particularly in traditional energy and telecommunications sectors, while technology stocks remain attractive due to valuation recovery and stable demand for AI [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for different asset classes: - **Stocks**: Caution and wait - and - see [6] - **Bonds**: Caution and wait - and - see [6] - **Commodities**: Buy on dips [6] - **Foreign Exchange**: Caution and wait - and - see [6] 2. Core Views - A - share major indices had narrow - range fluctuations this week and all recorded declines, mainly affected by domestic price data, trade situation, and overseas geopolitical and tariff news. Treasury bond yields weakened, and futures rose. The commodity market strengthened due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade relations, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The US dollar was volatile and weak, while the euro was strong [6]. - Inflation data in the US unexpectedly slowed down, the labor market continued to cool, which strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The US dollar was under pressure, and the euro maintained a strong trend. The Japanese yen was supported by the Bank of Japan's hawkish tone [10]. - In May, China's CPI and PPI showed different trends, and the CPI - PPI gap widened. Although exports were affected by tariffs, exports to ASEAN and the EU offset the decline in exports to the US. The tourism and culture industries were boosted by the summer vacation [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stocks**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 0.25%, and the CSI 300 Index Futures rose 0.07%. A - share major indices had narrow - range fluctuations and declined, with only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling more than 1%. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. - **Bonds**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 0.09%, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.11%. Treasury bond yields weakened, and futures rose. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. - **Commodities**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.17%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.58%. The CPI - PPI gap widened, and the trade scale shrank. The commodity market was expected to strengthen, but the upward momentum needs to be observed. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 1.30%, and the euro against the US dollar 2506 contract rose 1.11%. The US dollar was volatile and weak, and the euro was strong. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, reaching a consensus on implementing the leaders' consensus and consolidating the results of previous talks [14]. - **Global Economic News**: The Fed's Beige Book showed a pessimistic economic outlook in the US; the ECB cut interest rates; the World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan was entering a stage of rising interest rates [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and Overseas Economic Data - **China**: In May, the CPI annual rate was - 0.1%, the PPI annual rate was - 3.3%, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year [17]. - **US**: In May, the New York Fed's 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.2%, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8% [17]. - **UK**: In May, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and in April, the three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - **Japan**: In April, the trade balance was - 32.8 billion yen [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **China**: On June 16, the year - on - year growth rate of May's social consumer goods retail sales and the year - on - year growth rate of May's industrial added value above a designated size will be released; on June 20, the one - year loan prime rate will be announced [81]. - **US**: On June 17, the May retail sales monthly rate and the May industrial output monthly rate will be released; on June 19, the Fed's interest - rate decision will be announced [81]. - **UK**: On June 18, the May CPI monthly rate and the May retail price index monthly rate will be released; on June 19, the Bank of England's interest - rate decision will be announced [81]. - **Japan**: On June 17, the central bank's target interest rate will be announced; on June 20, the May core CPI annual rate will be released [81]. - **Eurozone**: On June 18, the May CPI annual rate final value will be released; on June 20, the June consumer confidence index preliminary value will be released [81].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term uncertainties for gold are numerous, and it is in a high - level oscillation. The strategic allocation value of gold is high in the long - term. Silver is also in a high - level oscillation, and its market sentiment changes rapidly. Copper is in a high - level consolidation in the short - term, and it is still favored in the long - term. Zinc's rebound is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weakening. Lead shows a short - term rebound. Tin's rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 and weak smelting. Aluminum has a short - term rebound. Nickel is under pressure to decline. Industrial silicon's short - term disk rebounds from oversold, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long - term. Carbonate lithium is bearish [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: SHFE gold was at 785.16, up 0.98% from the previous value, and COMEX gold was at 3406, up 0.90%. SHFE silver was at 8819, down 0.93%, and COMEX silver was at 36, up 0.14%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio was 89.03, up 1.93%. The London gold spot price was $3295, down 1.04%, and the London silver spot price was $33.124, down 8.50% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and inflation data are weak. Tariff uncertainties are large, and the UK economy has shrunk. In the short - term, geopolitical variables are significant, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 770 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, its speculative sentiment has temporarily returned. If the price - ratio returns to normal, it will follow the characteristics of gold and base metals. Control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78580 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The LME copper price was $9702/ton, up 0.56%, and the COMEX copper price was $484.3/pound, up 0.76%. The spot price of electrolytic copper was 79200 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. The domestic electrolytic copper output in May increased, but it is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze on LME copper. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Wait for copper to fully retrace and stabilize. Observe the support at the 78,000 - yuan level. For industrial hedging, sell at high prices. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [7]. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22030 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The LME zinc price was $2644/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price of No. 0 zinc was 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the开工 rate of zinc - related enterprises is lower than in previous years [10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term. In the long - term, short at high prices as supply increases and demand weakens. The range for SHFE zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the LME aluminum was $2522.5/ton, up 0.24%. The SHFE aluminum main contract was 20395 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. The alumina main contract was 2895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 20650 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment eases, production costs decline, and inventories decrease. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is stable, and the domestic production capacity is recovering. There is a short - term supply surplus [13]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900, 20500]. Alumina operates in a low - level range [13]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel was under pressure [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines increases, and the cost support weakens. Domestic refined nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is rising due to the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [118000, 123000] [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 decreased in position and dropped more than 1% throughout the day [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals change little. The supply pressure is large, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the rebound's sustainability is questionable [16]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Hold short positions in the range of [60000, 61500] [16].

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with a rotation between technology and value stocks. Interest rate-sensitive stocks are rebounding due to expectations of rate cuts, while concerns about economic slowdown impacting corporate earnings are rising [3] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is currently at a historically high level, reflecting market expectations for policy easing [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices are showing two-way volatility, indicating market divergence in interpreting Federal Reserve policies. Traditionally, gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates, but both have recently risen simultaneously, suggesting a new pricing logic for gold amid geopolitical tensions and a reshaping of the dollar system [4] - Global official gold reserves are continuously increasing, which may provide long-term support for gold prices due to structural changes in demand [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Behavior - The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting differentiated performance compared to U.S. stocks and gold. Bitcoin prices have stabilized after significant fluctuations, indicating the development of an independent price discovery mechanism in the crypto market [5] - The actual usage of decentralized finance applications is steadily increasing, potentially providing fundamental support for digital asset prices [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainties and Asset Allocation - The primary uncertainty in the market revolves around the timing and magnitude of the policy shift by the Federal Reserve. While inflationary pressures have eased, a strong labor market may limit the Fed's policy options [6] - Different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to policy changes, with U.S. stocks being most responsive to interest rate expectations, gold reflecting safe-haven attributes, and cryptocurrencies developing unique market logic [6] - The current market environment may lead to increased volatility, necessitating a balance between short-term trading opportunities and long-term asset allocation strategies [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - Gold reached a weekly high of $3377.55 per ounce, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, which fell to a near one-week low of 98.42 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with key resistance levels identified at $3390-$3400 and support at $3355 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a pullback after a recent surge, with Brent crude falling to $69.40 per barrel and WTI to $67.84, despite both having recorded over 4% gains previously [6] - The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. oil inventories, with ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions [6][7] - Short-term forecasts suggest a bullish outlook for oil prices, with key resistance levels at $68.5-$69.0 and support at $66.5-$66.0 [7]

金十数据6月12日讯，美国总统特朗普：希望（美联储）降低利率，我们拥有大量的短期债务，我喜欢 长期低息债务。如果我们降低利率1%，就意味着少支付1%。我不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，他只需将 利率降低即可，我们的通胀数据表现良好。 美联储：不会解雇鲍威尔 他要做的是降息 ...