Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to support the prices of precious metals and industrial metals. It suggests that the central bank's gold purchases will be a long-term trend, leading to a sustained upward movement in gold prices [3][21]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and others, based on their potential for recovery and growth in the current market environment [3][18]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index rose by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [4][3]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [7][4]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Industrial metals prices saw increases: copper prices rose by 3.38%, aluminum by 2.93%, and zinc by 3.14% week-on-week. In contrast, precious metals like gold and silver saw declines of 3.30% and 4.38%, respectively [13][14]. - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the industry, indicating their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold highlighted for their strong performance [18][19]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, with a total of 1,531 tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. The report also highlights the increasing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [21][22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 85.5, indicating the relative pricing dynamics between these two precious metals [22]. Copper Market Analysis - The report details the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in the copper treatment charge (TC) to $42.6 per dry ton, alongside an increase in domestic social inventory to 182,000 tons [27][16]. - The report highlights the operational rates for copper products, with the electrolytic copper rod and wire and cable operating rates at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent US Treasury yields have declined overall, with the "safe-haven + rate cut expectation" resonance strengthening. The core factors driving the rise of US Treasuries are the expectation of looser monetary policy, including Powell's public signal of rate cuts, mild CPI in September, and the decline in housing and oil prices weakening medium - and long - term inflation pressures. Additionally, the deterioration of regional bank loan quality and government shutdown concerns have enhanced the safe - haven property of US Treasuries [1][6]. - Fiscal and supply pressures have eased, and the ultra - long end is relatively favored. The allocation force is concentrating on the long end, and the long - end supply pressure is expected to weaken, further supporting long - end prices. In the short term, US Treasuries are supported by the rate cut path and falling inflation, but there may be fluctuations. In the medium term, US Treasuries still have allocation value and are likely to enter a pattern of low - level oscillation [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Treasury Interest Rates - As of October 24, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has dropped by 12bp in two weeks to 4.02%. The 2 - year yield has also dropped by 12bp, and the 30 - year yield by 13bp compared to two weeks ago [2]. 2. US Treasury Market - In terms of actual bond issuance in early October, the issuance duration of US Treasuries has slightly increased, with 57.84 billion for 3 - year, 38.92 billion for 10 - year, and 21.96 billion for 30 - year. The US fiscal deficit in December is 86.7 billion US dollars, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit has slightly declined to 2.03 trillion US dollars [2]. 3. Derivatives Market - The net short position in US Treasury futures has slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million lots. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 lots [2]. 4. Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed has shown increased concern about the labor market [3]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of October 22, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance has increased by 111.02 billion US dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has shrunk by 1.415 billion US dollars in two weeks, with overall liquidity remaining relatively abundant [3]. - **Economic Situation**: As of October 18, the Fed's weekly economic indicator is 2.16 (2.44 two weeks ago), indicating that the economy has deteriorated after a short - term stabilization [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by a combination of risk aversion, speculative capital, and strong industrial demand, leading to significant market volatility and potential pitfalls for retail investors [5][6][10][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices have surpassed $4,050 per ounce, while silver has reached $48.3, both hitting historical records [5]. - Trading volume for gold futures increased by 40% in one day, and silver saw a weekly increase of 15% [5]. - The U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions have contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, which fell below 90, a three-year low [8]. Group 2: Speculative Behavior - In the COMEX silver futures market, the spot inventory has dropped to 8,900 tons, a five-year low, while speculative long positions surged to 38,000 contracts, with leverage reaching 63% [10]. - The silver futures premium has risen to 8.7%, indicating a market distortion due to speculative activities [10]. - Retail investors are engaging in high-frequency trading, with an average turnover rate of 36 times per year, leading to significant transaction costs that erode their capital [18]. Group 3: Industrial Demand - The International Energy Agency projects that global photovoltaic installations will exceed 600 GW in 2025, increasing silver consumption in solar cells by 37% [11]. - Despite the rising demand, global silver mine production has remained stagnant at 25,000 tons for three consecutive years, creating a supply-demand gap of 8,000 tons [13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Investment Strategy - Historical data shows that gold has not consistently maintained its purchasing power, with a significant decline observed over 200 years [15]. - The average annual return on gold from 2000 to 2025 is 6.2%, which, after accounting for inflation, results in a net return of only 2.1% [22]. - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, with gold serving as a stabilizer rather than a primary growth engine, and a suggestion to limit gold holdings to 20% of total investments [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop after reaching a historical peak, and explores the implications for the gold market and other metals like aluminum, silver, and copper [3][5][19]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,381 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline of over 6%, dropping below $4,100, marking the most severe drop since 2013 [3][5]. - The current gold cycle began in Q4 2022, confirmed in 2023, and is now in a major upward phase [6]. - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes from March to November 2022 significantly impacted gold prices, with a series of rate increases culminating in a peak rate of 5.50% in July 2023 [9][10]. - Despite the Fed's rate hikes, gold prices began to recover after hitting a low in September 2022, with a notable increase in 2023 driven by geopolitical tensions and rising demand for safe-haven assets [11][12]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with net purchases reaching 1,082 tons in 2022 and 1,037 tons in 2023, indicating a structural change in the gold market [13][14]. - The trend of central banks buying gold is expected to continue, with projections for 2024 showing net purchases of 1,044.6 tons [13][18]. - The cautious approach of central banks in recent months suggests a strategic wait-and-see attitude regarding future gold price movements [15][18]. Other Metals to Watch - Silver and copper prices have also surged in 2023, with silver prices increasing by over 70% and copper prices reaching a near one-year high of $10,700 per ton [19]. - In contrast, aluminum prices have not performed as well, with annual growth rates of -6.38% in 2022 and only modest increases in subsequent years [21]. - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow, particularly in the automotive sector, with predictions of a supply shortage starting in 2028, which could lead to a price increase of 50%-60% [21].

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,488.95 tons on October 23, a decrease of 94.74 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $48.65 per ounce on October 23, up 0.98%, with an intraday high of $49.23 and a low of $47.64 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's October interest rate cut probability stands at 97.3%, with a 2.7% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - A survey of economists indicates that 115 out of 117 expect the Fed to lower rates to 3.75%-4.00% in October, with expectations of two rate cuts for the year from 83 economists [3] - The strong dollar, supported by short covering and moderate demand for precious metals, may increase the downward pressure on silver prices [3] - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, adds uncertainty to the economic outlook and delays key data releases [3]

Core Viewpoint - Global gold prices rebounded over 1% on October 24 due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold prices rose by 1% to $4,132.76 per ounce, while December gold futures increased by 2% to $4,145.60 per ounce [1] - Earlier in the week, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,381.21 per ounce before experiencing the largest single-day drop in five years, indicating profit-taking behavior among investors [1][3] Group 2: Market Influences - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include global tensions, increased economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant net purchases of gold by central banks [3] - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as an opportunity for new buying, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report, with expectations that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, which will be a key reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, with potential for another cut in December [5] Group 4: Future Projections - JPMorgan forecasts that due to strong investment demand and high levels of net gold purchases by central banks (estimated at 566 tons per quarter next year), the average gold price could reach $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 [5] - Other precious metals also saw price increases, with spot silver rising by 1.1% to $49.07 per ounce, platinum up by 0.5% to $1,629.44 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 0.4% to $1,453.90 per ounce [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a significant rebound due to renewed geopolitical risks following U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies, which has increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - The latest U.S. sanctions target Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft, marking a significant shift in policy aimed at increasing pressure on Moscow amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict [1] - Rystad Energy's geopolitical analysis head, Jorge Leon, stated that the sanctions represent a major and unprecedented escalation in Washington's pressure on Moscow [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that domestic gold prices have shown potential for a bottoming out, with the Shanghai gold futures (2602 contract) reaching a high near 955, indicating a possibility of further upward movement without significant downside risk [2] - The reference trading range for the Shanghai gold main contract is set between 928-982 yuan per gram, with resistance levels at 960-980 and support levels at 920-930 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs indicates a rising demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy, with gold prices showing signs of recovery after a period of decline [4][5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of October 24, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) increased by 0.13%, reaching a price of 8.99 yuan, with a cumulative rise of 3.09% over the past two weeks [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF was 5.89 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.48%. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 32.88 billion yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [4]. - The total shares of the gold ETF reached 4.413 billion, marking a one-year high [5]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion stemming from strained U.S.-Russia relations and uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policies, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.91% to $4,143.2 per ounce [4]. - Recent sanctions against Russia by the EU and the U.S. have contributed to the supportive sentiment for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Huatai Securities suggests that short-term declines in gold prices do not alter the long-term investment logic for gold, viewing recent pullbacks as opportunities for accumulation [5]. - The market consensus on the long-term value of gold-related assets remains intact, with expectations for many gold companies to achieve both volume and price increases by 2026 [5]. - Over the past 14 days, the gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 7.355 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.449 billion yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand stemming from heightened tensions in US-Russia relations and uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia fell by 1.19% and gold stock ETFs decreased by 0.28% [1] - The postponement of a US-Russia meeting by Trump and the EU's formal approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia have contributed to the support of safe-haven sentiment [1] Group 2: Analysis and Forecast - According to CITIC Futures, after a gradual slowdown in the decline, precious metal prices experienced a slight rebound, with the US government shutdown continuing and overseas data remaining sparse [1] - The short-term bottom for precious metals may be confirmed, with expectations of entering a phase of oscillation and adjustment [1] - Key focus areas for the month include the performance of the US-China meeting around the APEC conference and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts in the fourth quarter [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of US dollar credit being a core foundation, leading to an ongoing increase in the value of physical currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand stemming from heightened tensions in US-Russia relations and uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1] Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia fell by 1.19% and gold stock ETFs decreased by 0.28% [1] Geopolitical Factors - The postponement of a US-Russia meeting by Trump and the EU's formal approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia have contributed to the support of safe-haven sentiment [1] - The US Treasury Secretary announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, further influencing market dynamics [1] Market Analysis - According to CITIC Futures, after a gradual slowdown in the decline, precious metal prices experienced a slight rebound, with the US government shutdown continuing and overseas markets remaining in a data vacuum [1] - The short-term bottom for precious metals may be confirmed, with expectations of entering a phase of oscillation and adjustment [1] Future Outlook - Attention is drawn to the upcoming APEC meeting and the potential for US-China discussions, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts in the fourth quarter [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of US dollar credit being a core foundation, leading to an ongoing increase in the value of physical currency [1]