Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing volatility due to escalating global trade disputes, with recent price fluctuations reflecting a return to previous levels after a significant drop [2][11] Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - The U.S. has been facing significant economic challenges, including a large debt scale and trade deficits, leading to increased tariffs as a means to address domestic issues [2] - Recent tariff measures have heightened concerns about potential disruptions in global trade chains, which could negatively impact economic growth and increase inflation [3] - The U.S. administration's shift towards a more conciliatory trade stance has improved market sentiment, resulting in a rebound in risk assets that were previously affected [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite a slight increase in global copper production, the expansion of smelting capacity has outpaced it, leading to a tightening supply situation [4] - Recent incidents in Peru, particularly at the Antamina mine, could further strain copper supply if production is disrupted for an extended period [4] - Domestic copper smelting facilities are facing challenges due to low processing fees, which have dropped significantly, impacting their production viability [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Domestic refined copper inventories have been rapidly decreasing, influenced by high prices and a subsequent drop in purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors [8] - The traditional peak season for copper demand is nearing its end, and concerns about future demand are growing due to the potential impact of tariffs on exports, particularly in the machinery and electronics sectors [10] - Overall, while there is strong support for copper prices in the short term, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to macroeconomic pressures and potential demand weakening [11]

特朗普用所谓的"对等关税"冲击全球贸易格局，将全球金融市场带入"乱纪元"。 从美国、欧洲再到新兴市场，全球股市坐上暴涨与暴跌交替的"过山车"——纳斯达克指数在两天跌掉 11.5%之后，又因"懂王"暂缓征税90天的一句话单日反弹超12%。 就连避险资产之王黄金都遭受冲击，在全市场暴跌之际被投资者抛售变现去补充保证金，金价一度跌破 3000美元每盎司，随后又剧烈反弹至3300美元之上，连创历史新高。 特朗普在关税问题上的奇葩操作，让全球资本抛售美股、美元、美债——美元指数迅速跌破100，在4月 21日已跌至98创近三年新低，10年期美债收益率在4月11日上涨至4.492%的近期高点。 以往美元指数的下跌，往往伴随着美债收益率的下跌——这也正是特朗普青睐弱美元以降低国债融资成 本，让美国36万亿美元天量债务能够继续滚动下去的逻辑基础。但二者的相关性，这次却出现背离—— 美元指数向下，国债收益率向上。 知名投资人霍华德·马克斯在其最新备忘录中说，现在进入 "无人知晓"之境 。的确，当前全球贸易与金融 体系正在进入重构之中，过往行之有效的很多金融逻辑与投资策略遭遇挑战，让大类资产的走势越来越 扑朔迷离。 市场变化难测— ...

弘则研究-内外风险是否完全释放，二季度预期差指向何方？ 2025041720250416 摘要 • 美国发动全球贸易战对黑色商品市场产生显著影响，降低商品消费和物流 生产效率，对全球经济和商品定价产生深远影响，中国应对果断，国内资 产表现相对平稳。 • 二季度国内钢材需求有所修复，热卷和螺纹钢表需环比改善，但制造业和 出口短期影响未如预期般严重，4-5 月有望保持强劲，铁水产量逐步筑顶。 • 焦煤价格自年初以来持续下跌，已跌破 900 元，与基本面相符，可能打开 钢材下方空间，铁矿石和焦煤价格走势也在掂量材料成本支撑位置，上行 趋势较难，下行空间更大。 • 当前黑色行业矛盾不突出，预期偏弱导致产业行为谨慎，一季度各项数据 良好，粗钢产量和消费微增，出口增加，铁矿库存去化，总体处于偏强现 实状态。 • 全球贸易纠纷降低全年粗钢消费，各研究机构需下调消费预判，导致产业 链原料消费增量减少，供给端压到边际成本，原料端整体偏弱。 Q&A 美国全球贸易战对黑色商品市场有何影响？ 美国在 2025 年 4 月 2 日发动全球贸易战，对所有经济体（除俄罗斯外）加征 超高关税。这一举措可能成为未来五到十年的重大转折点，对全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been characterized by significant volatility, with prices rising over 10% in the first quarter and reaching a 34-month high before experiencing a drop of over 20% in just five trading days, driven by macroeconomic shocks and supply-demand mismatches [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in tin prices is attributed to two main factors: the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy raising concerns about increased global trade costs and demand contraction, and supply expectation adjustments from major producing regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. - The ongoing trade war and changing tariff policies have led to heightened market risk aversion, significantly impacting tin as a high-volatility commodity [2]. - The tightening of dollar liquidity and geopolitical conflicts have further exacerbated market fluctuations, with LME tin inventories dropping to their lowest point in 2023 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply-demand dynamics indicate a "tight but not lacking" supply situation, with demand showing signs of recovery from weakness [6]. - Data shows that China's tin ore imports in January-February 2025 fell nearly 50% year-on-year, with a sharp 81.07% decline in imports from Myanmar, influenced by recent earthquakes affecting supply [6]. - The global mining capital expenditure growth rate for tin-related projects from 2019 to 2024 is only 1.2%, indicating a mismatch between existing project recovery and new project development timelines against demand growth [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for tin is expected to significantly improve in the medium to long term, supported by growth in sectors such as semiconductor chips, 5G communications, photovoltaic cells, and AI chip soldering materials [6][8]. - The International Tin Association predicts a "non-linear leap" in tin demand from AI servers, with consumption per server expected to be three times that of traditional devices by 2025 [8]. - Despite the ongoing global trade tensions, tin is recognized as a strategic resource, with its overall value anticipated to rise as macroeconomic concerns are gradually absorbed by the market [8].

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada maintains its key interest rate at 2.75%, focusing on controlling inflation and supporting economic growth amid dramatic shifts in global trade policies [1] - Inflation is projected to approach the 2% target by Q4 2024, but is expected to rise due to escalating trade conflicts and tariffs, with CPI inflation increasing from 1.9% in November 2024 to 2.3% in March 2025 [2] - Economic activity is forecasted to slow, with GDP growth estimated at 2.6% in Q4 2024 and 1.8% in Q1 2025, influenced by reduced domestic demand and trade activities [2][5] Group 2 - The labor market recovery is hindered by trade conflicts, with unemployment rising to 6.7% in March 2025 due to job contractions [2][5] - The U.S. trade policy uncertainty is negatively impacting Canada's economic growth outlook, leading to difficulties in business and household planning [5] - Core inflation remains elevated, with CPI-median and CPI-trim at 2.9% and 2.8% respectively, indicating persistent price pressures despite fluctuations in consumer prices [2][5]

申万宏源策略 . 以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 本周A股快速出清特朗普极限施压引发的悲观预期后，中央汇金发挥平准基金功能，特朗普延后其他国家关税加征，全球股市超跌反弹。反弹兑 现后，我们认为后续基本面趋势验证偏弱的阶段，A股仍需磨底。具体关注三个问题：1. 关税影响是美国滞胀交易，国内衰退交易。后续外需回 落压力逐步显现，二季度即便有"抢转口"，外需回落的方向不变，三季度回落压力可能放大。这个阶段，市场对政策对冲的要求可能明显提高， 总体风险偏好上行受限。2. 静态测算下，美对华提高关税税率会扩大A股的业绩负面影响，美对其他国家的关税会减缓对中国实际GDP的冲击(比 较优势)，中国的关税反击会减缓中国名义GDP的冲击(进口商品的比价效应)。"美国关税提升——中国对等反击"的税率水平，已提升到了没有边 际影响的阶段。但美国对其他国家关税减免，还是可能放大静态业绩影响(但也会放大我们应对和腾挪的空间)。所以，A股盈利预期还有一定下 修空间。3. 容易凝聚市场共识方向，主要是消费和科技。而对冲政策发力，消费结构性改善是大概率，但消费改善的持续性、消费刺激对总量的 拉动效果仍有待观察。科技本就处于调 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that due to global trade disruptions and reduced demand for electric vehicles, the supply surplus of nickel will increase to approximately 260,000 tons by 2025 [1] Industry Summary - Global trade disruptions are impacting demand forecasts for nickel [1] - The demand for electric vehicles is decreasing, contributing to the overall decline in nickel demand [1] - The anticipated supply surplus of nickel highlights potential challenges for the industry moving forward [1]

本次电话会议仅服务于国泰海通证券正式签约客户会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰海通证券客户内部学习使用不得外发并且必须经国泰海通证券研究所审核后方可留存国泰海通证券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权转载转发 尊敬的各位投资者朋友大家好我是国泰海通宏观的分析师梁中华 今天呢我来给大家汇报一下我们今年团队推出的系列专题报告叫全球的货币变局为什么要推这个专题呢其实最近一段时间大家感受应该非常明显全球的产业链供应链在面临比较大的冲击同时呢全球的资产定价也发生比较大的波动 而且资产定价的这个框架呢可能跟之前都不太一样其实这里面的很大程度上是来自于全球的整个经济体系和货币体系的变革那么货币体系和经济体系为什么会出现变革呢其实是因为各国之间的信任程度出现了变化而这种信任程度的变化呢从大的层面来讲呢 他其实是属于整个世界的秩序啊在面临重构因为世界秩序重构所以各国的关系也在发生变化那么进而影响产业链供应链影响大类资产的定价所以呢看起来现在跟以前很多情况是不一样的那包括看起来也比较乱我们团队呢是给大家提供一个视角来思考这些问题提供一个思考的框架来理解这些问题 那么今天重点要讨论的呢是全球的货币变迹的系列专题之五然 ...

Canalys（现已并入Omdia）研究数据显示， 2025年第一季度，全球智能手机市场同比增长1% 。尽管面临持 续的宏观经济下行、消费者信心疲软以及渠道库存出货延迟等挑战，市场仍实现温和增长。三星以20%的市场 份额重夺全球第一 ， 苹果紧随其后，市场份额为18% 。 小米以14%的市场份额位居第三 ，与去年同期持 平； vivo与OPPO分别以8%的市场份额排名第四和第五 。 Canalys研究经理刘艺璇（Amber Liu）表示 ：" 尽管全球市场整体仍处于复苏进程中，但2025年第一季度的整 体环境比预期更加动荡。在 2024年末的强劲表现中，厂商纷纷向渠道 大量压货以争夺市场份额 ，但实际销售 （sell-through）低于预期，导致库存周期拉长，进而抑制了2025年初的出货动能（sell-in）。与2024年由疫情 后换机潮和大众市场价格优势推动的复苏不同， 今年的反弹显得更加脆弱 。" Canalys高级分析师Sanyam Chaurasia表示："受全球宏观经济挑战影响，消费者情绪依然谨慎，抑制了第一季 度本应出现的季节性增长。即便是在如斋月等关键市场的节庆期间，需求也低于预期。面对出货量 ...

当前全球经济面临多重挑战，关税政策反复与通胀压力交织，加剧市场不确定性。美国对部分科技产品 豁免关税，看似释放缓和信号，但政策摇摆已扰乱全球产业链，亚洲反制措施更令供应链承压。经济数 据矛盾凸显内需隐忧，消费者信心低迷与通胀预期高企并存，美联储面临抑制通胀与避免衰退的两难。 本周需要看周三美零售销售月率，周四的失业金数据，欧洲央行利率决议，周五耶稣受难日，休市一天 全天交易暂停。 黄金创下历史新高，受益于避险情绪与美元持续疲软。上周，现货黄金（XAU/USD）价格再度刷新历 史纪录，盘中一度突破3240美元/盎司关口，随后因日线技术指标超买出现小幅回调。尽管如此，整体 上黄金仍受到强劲支撑，维持强势整理格局。 此轮金价飙升的背后，是多重宏观因素共振的结果：全球贸易紧张局势骤然升级；美元跌至2022年4月 以来最低水平；美国CPI数据回落强化美联储年内降息预期；全球债市抛压带来通胀担忧，刺激黄金的 保值需求。 金价上周五再创历史新高，因美元走软以及贸易战升级引发了对经济衰退的担忧，投资者纷纷涌向黄金 避险，当前行情行情日线、周线、月线级别爆发式重启，金价波幅加大，当前沿1小时级别上行通道运 行，短期可关注回踩博 ...