Market Overview - The market experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1%, marking an eight-day consecutive gain [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.14% [2] - Over 3,400 stocks declined, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw a significant surge, while the lithium battery supply chain also performed strongly [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept remained active, whereas sectors such as paper, liquor, and computing hardware faced notable declines [2] Market Dynamics - A sudden drop in the market around 11:13 AM raised speculation about potential negative news triggering a collective sell-off [4] - The market quickly rebounded after the drop, indicating that there was no significant negative news impacting the market [4][6] - Historical precedents of similar intraday drops were noted, suggesting that such fluctuations do not necessarily affect the long-term market trend [5][8] Investment Sentiment - The current market environment is perceived as stabilizing, with an increase in risk appetite among investors [7] - The offshore RMB against the USD breaking the 7 mark may accelerate foreign investment in quality Chinese assets [7] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized technological innovation as a driver for modern industrial system construction, with sectors like commercial aerospace, AI, and semiconductors identified for continued policy support [7] Sector Highlights - The lithium carbonate futures price surged past 130,000 yuan, with a daily increase of over 8%, reaching a new high since November 2023 [10] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to turn profitable by 2026, with major companies likely to benefit from cash flow and scale advantages [11] - Hainan's free trade zone is experiencing a surge in duty-free shopping, with significant increases in consumer spending and travel bookings [12]

智通财经APP获悉，日本经济产业省计划将本财年(从 4 月开始)对尖端半导体和人工智能开发的预算支 持增加近三倍，达到约 1.23 万亿日元(79 亿美元)。日本经济产业省的预算总额较上年增长约50%，达到 3.07万亿日元，主要原因是芯片和人工智能领域的支出大幅增加。日本首相高市早苗的内阁于周五批准 了该预算案，初步预算方案将于新年提交国会审议。 在整体预算中，50亿日元将用于保障包括稀土在内的关键矿产资源。为实现脱碳目标，1220亿日元将用 于包括开发所谓下一代核电站在内的多个领域。根据两国贸易协定，日本还将发行约1.78万亿日元的特 别债券，以帮助国家支持的日本出口投资保险公司支持日本对美投资。 从4月开始的新财年起，日本经济产业省计划将芯片和人工智能领域的大部分额外资金纳入常规预算， 而不是像以往那样在年底通过额外预算临时拨款。此举有望为相关领域提供更稳定的资金支持。 在半导体领域，日本经济产业省已拨款1500亿日元用于国有芯片企业Rapidus Corp.，使政府对该企业的 累计投资达到2500亿日元。在人工智能领域，日本政府拨款3873亿日元用于开发国内基础人工智能模 型、加强数据基础设施建设以及 ...

A500ETF南方(159352)跟踪误差较小、区间净值超额收益率明显较高，折溢价率均值（绝对值）并不 高，具备"低偏离+精准跟踪+规模支撑"优势。 A500ETF南方(159352)紧密跟踪的中证A500指数。中证A500指数被誉为"中国新质生产力风向标"，以革 新编制逻辑突破传统：通过"三级行业龙头优先+ESG负面剔除"机制，覆盖约90个三级行业，同时汇聚 千亿巨头及百亿成长龙头，实现行业与市值双平衡。指数深度绑定国家战略产业，全面配置信息技术、 高端制造、医药等新质生产力领域，为投资者提供分享经济转型红利、分散风险的优质载体。 A500ETF南方(159352)凭借0.15%管理费+0.05%托管费全行业最低费率档位，为投资者提供高精度、低 成本配置通道。场内高流动性满足交易需求，场外联接基金(A：022434；C：022435；Y：022918)便捷 定投，打造攻守兼备的新时代配置利器。 截至2025年12月26日 13:50，A500ETF南方(159352)上涨0.65%，冲击6连涨。盘中换手17.12%，成交 78.78亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数中证A500指数上涨0.60%，成分股永兴材料上 ...

截至9月30日，华峰测控股东户数1.02万，较上期增加45.32%；人均流通股13295股，较上期减少 31.18%。2025年1月-9月，华峰测控实现营业收入9.39亿元，同比增长51.21%；归母净利润3.87亿元，同 比增长81.57%。 12月26日，华峰测控盘中下跌2.04%，截至13:10，报189.51元/股，成交2.64亿元，换手率1.02%，总市 值256.85亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出191.08万元，特大单买入1343.74万元，占比5.08%，卖出2365.92万元， 占比8.95%；大单买入7060.85万元，占比26.70%，卖出6229.75万元，占比23.56%。 华峰测控今年以来股价涨82.66%，近5个交易日涨10.82%，近20日涨11.28%，近60日跌9.52%。 资料显示，北京华峰测控技术股份有限公司位于北京市海淀区丰豪东路9号院5号楼1至5层101、102、 103，成立日期1993年2月1日，上市日期2020年2月18日，公司主营业务涉及半导体自动化测试系统的研 发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：测试系统85.72%，配件13.86%，其他0.41% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate widely throughout 2026, with the overall center of gravity moving upward. It may face pressure in the first half of the year due to supply recovery and potential AI bubbles, and then rise in the second half as macro - easing policies are implemented and the market reaches a tight balance. The predicted core fluctuation range for the SHFE Shanghai tin main contract in 2026 is 275,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the range for LME tin is 38,500 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - On the supply side, there are significant uncertainties in the three major supply areas of Myanmar, Indonesia, and Congo (Kinshasa). Supply may be stronger in the first half of 2026 compared to this year, but supply disruptions will persist in the second half due to factors such as the rainy season in Myanmar, the intensification of the war in Congo (Kinshasa), and quota restrictions in Indonesia [2]. - On the demand side, the consumer electronics industry is entering a recovery cycle. Although the AI sector has a relatively small weight, it has strong driving force. Other traditional tin - consuming sectors will maintain steady growth. The overall demand growth rate of tin is expected to remain above 3% in 2026 [2][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - **First stage (January - May 2025)**: Supply bottlenecks drove the market, and capital forced short - covering to push prices to a peak. The core contradiction was a sharp contraction in supply. Delays in Indonesia's RKAB export quota approval and the repeated failure of the复产 in Myanmar's Wa State mine led to a supply gap. Coupled with the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, capital launched a short - covering campaign, pushing the Shanghai tin main contract to a high [4]. - **Second stage (May - September 2025)**: Negative feedback emerged, and there was a deep correction as the macro - environment cooled. High tin prices suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to low spot trading and inventory stagnation. The approval of Indonesia's RKAB and the recovery of exports, along with fluctuating macro - sentiment, caused long - position capital to leave the market, and tin prices fell [4]. - **Third stage (October - December 2025)**: Raw material shortages resurfaced, and the implementation of macro - policies pushed prices to a new high. Despite the nominal复产 in Myanmar's Wa State, actual tin concentrate inflows were lower than expected. The Fed's interest - rate cut, combined with low inventory and weak supply in the industry and increased demand from semiconductors and AI, drove tin prices up to a historical high [7]. Chapter 3: Supply Side - Increasing Uncertainty - **Tin ore: Limited growth**: In 2025, global tin concentrate supply showed a pattern of "stock competition and limited growth." In 2026, the supply elasticity of global tin ore remains weak, and the core contradiction is shifting from policy disruptions to resource depletion. The growth rate of global tin ore production is expected to be in the range of 1.5% - 2% under a pessimistic scenario, and may reach 8% if the复产 exceeds expectations [8]. - **Myanmar: Multiple disturbances**: Myanmar's tin supply has been a major source of "expected differences." Since the mining rectification in 2024, the actual复产 has been slow and non - continuous due to policy, equipment, and cost factors. In 2026, resource depletion will limit supply, and the rainy season and logistics problems may cause supply shortages and price increases [12][13]. - **Indonesia: From elastic adjustment to institutional constraints**: In 2025, Indonesia's tin exports were restricted by anti - corruption investigations and stricter RKAB approvals. In 2026, although the approval process may normalize, supply elasticity will decline significantly. Exports are expected to recover but will be subject to RKAB approvals [18]. - **Congo (Kinshasa): Increment and geopolitical concerns**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is the only certain incremental source of global supply in 2026. However, the project faces risks of armed conflict and unstable logistics, so a higher risk premium should be considered [22]. - **Cost support analysis**: In 2026, the cost of global tin mining is expected to rise. The 90 - percentile cash cost line (C1) is expected to reach 26,000 - 27,000 US dollars/ton, and the 90 - percentile fully cost (AISC) is expected to exceed 29,000 US dollars/ton, providing strong support for tin prices [24][25]. Chapter 4: Demand Side - Cycle Resonance and AI Reconstruction - **Consumer electronics: From "passive inventory reduction" to "active inventory replenishment"**: The consumer electronics industry has ended the difficult inventory reduction phase. In 2026, it will enter the "active inventory replenishment" stage driven by the replacement cycle of PC equipment and the penetration of "edge - side AI" [27][30]. - **AI servers: Strong driving force, low weight** - In 2026, the AI server market is divided into "standard modular servers" and "rack - scale systems." The rack - scale system represented by NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 has a revolutionary impact on tin consumption [33][34]. - The estimated tin consumption of a single NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 cabinet is 5.15 kg, mainly from computing trays, cable assemblies, power systems, and backplane systems [36][38]. - The total tin consumption increment of the AI industry chain in 2026 is estimated to be about 1,600 tons, accounting for less than 0.5% of the global annual consumption. Although the physical impact is limited, it has a significant influence on market pricing [43][44]. - **Marginal changes: Photovoltaic's reduction concerns and the resilience of traditional sectors** - In 2026, the demand growth of the photovoltaic sector will level off as the increase in installed capacity is offset by the decline in tin consumption per GW. The sector will become a support for maintaining high - level consumption rather than a major driver of price increases [45][46]. - In traditional sectors, tin chemicals may face a decline, while tinplate and lead - acid batteries are expected to maintain stable growth, providing basic support for tin consumption [46]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Inventory - **Global supply - demand balance**: Under different scenarios in 2026, the supply of global tin ore and refined tin will increase, and consumption will also grow. However, there will still be a supply - demand gap, and the gap may widen [49]. - **Inventory: Excess inventory cleared, elasticity restored**: In 2025, tin market inventory returned to normal levels. In 2026, with the expected expansion of the supply - demand gap, the ability of inventory to regulate supply and demand will weaken, and prices will be more sensitive to marginal gaps [50].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Ge Industry's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 60.73%, but recent trading indicates a net outflow of funds, suggesting potential investor caution [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yunnan Ge Industry, established on August 19, 1998, and listed on June 8, 2010, specializes in germanium mining, refining, and deep processing, with key products including zone-refined germanium ingots and infrared-grade germanium single crystals [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes material-grade germanium products (29.26%), photovoltaic-grade germanium products (23.34%), optical fiber-grade germanium products (21.98%), infrared-grade germanium products (12.45%), compound semiconductor materials (10.54%), and others (2.44%) [2]. - The company operates within the non-ferrous metals sector, specifically in small metals, and is associated with concepts such as third-generation semiconductors and aerospace military [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yunnan Ge Industry reported a revenue of 799 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.43% to 18.15 million yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 179 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 32.66 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yunnan Ge Industry increased to 88,900, with an average of 7,349 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous period [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 10.59 million shares, and Southern CSI 1000 ETF, which reduced its holdings by 49,500 shares [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Silicon Electric Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in its stock price and trading volume, with a notable increase in stock price year-to-date but a decline in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025 [1][2]. Group 2 - As of December 26, Silicon Electric's stock price was 229.74 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 9.586 billion CNY and a trading volume of 186 million CNY [1]. - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 46.36%, with a 4.18% increase over the last five trading days [1]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Silicon Electric reported a revenue of 289 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 20.54%, and a net profit of 25.06 million CNY, down 61.30% year-on-year [2]. - The company's main business involves the research, production, and sales of semiconductor equipment, with a revenue composition of 54.52% from die probe tables and 34.00% from wafer probe tables [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 15.30% to 12,100, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 13.27% to 862 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 39.97 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing [3]. - The largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 266,000 shares, an increase of 18,180 shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has emerged as a vibrant hub for technological innovation, supported by a comprehensive financial service system that covers the entire lifecycle of enterprises, enhancing their growth and development [1][2][13]. Financial Support System - Shenzhen's financial support for technology enterprises includes innovative products like "Tengfei Loan," "Technology Startup Pass," and "Cross-Border Loan," which cater to the financing needs from the seed stage to growth [5][8][10]. - As of October 2025, the balance of technology loans in Shenzhen has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, with the issuance of technology innovation bonds ranking among the top in the country [2][13]. Innovative Financial Products - "Tengfei Loan" incorporates future revenue sharing into credit relationships, allowing banks to provide longer-term loans to high-growth tech companies without diluting their equity [5][6]. - "Technology Startup Pass" utilizes data from social security, tax, and intellectual property to identify potential tech enterprises, enabling banks to lend earlier and in smaller amounts [6][7]. - "Cross-Border Loan" facilitates rapid financing for growing enterprises lacking collateral by leveraging a collaborative model among local credit platforms, government financing institutions, and banks [8][10]. Ecosystem Optimization - Shenzhen is building a collaborative "technology-industry-finance" ecosystem, enhancing the "stock-loan-bond-insurance-exchange" linkage to support tech innovation [10][12]. - The "Kowloon Technology Innovation Cooperation Zone" promotes cross-border collaboration and has attracted over 200 high-end research projects and 1.5 million researchers [11][12]. - The "Thousand Billion Financing Plan" in Nanshan District aims to alleviate financing difficulties for tech enterprises by establishing a multi-tiered risk-sharing mechanism [11][12]. Conclusion - The combination of innovative financial products and a supportive ecosystem positions Shenzhen as a leader in nurturing specialized and innovative enterprises, with a financial service system that acts as a "co-builder" and "companion" throughout the innovation process [13].

Core Viewpoint - Baiao Chemical's stock has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 98.27%, but recent trends indicate a slight decline in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 26, Baiao Chemical's stock rose by 2.03%, reaching 30.66 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.48%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.653 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 0.10% decline over the last five trading days and a 9.16% decline over the last 20 days, while it has increased by 20.05% over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" four times this year, with the most recent appearance on December 15, where it recorded a net buy of -13.5148 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baiao Chemical reported a revenue of 1.056 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 50.83% to 125 million CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.224 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 722 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Baiao Chemical had 24,000 shareholders, an increase of 12.51% from the previous period, with an average of 29,483 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 11.12% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 4.0587 million shares, an increase of 1.6304 million shares from the previous period, while Southern CSI 1000 ETF reduced its holdings by 45,500 shares [3].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Most domestic futures main contracts rose at the 23:00 close, with fuel oil and rapeseed meal up nearly 2%, and PX and PTA up over 1.5%. Jiao coal, coke, LPG, and glass fell over 1% [5]. - At the 1:00 close, Shanghai copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and international copper main contracts rose, while the alumina main contract fell [5]. - At the 2:30 close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts rose [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - China has lodged solemn representations with the US over its plan to impose 301 tariffs on some Chinese semiconductor products [9]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a good call with US representatives, emphasizing efforts to end the conflict [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased slightly, while domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory decreased [11]. - Russia's plan to produce 100 million tons of LNG annually has been postponed due to sanctions [11]. - Iraq has lost power - generation capacity due to the interruption of Iranian natural - gas supply [11]. - China will take measures to ensure the supply and price stability of fertilizers [13]. Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted trading rules for platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures contracts [15][16]. - Tianqi Lithium will change its spot - trading settlement price starting from January 1, 2026 [16]. - Wanrun New Energy will conduct production - line maintenance, reducing its lithium iron phosphate output [16]. - Four leading silicon - wafer companies have significantly raised their quotes [17][35]. - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026 [17]. Black - Series Futures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit for coke and coking coal futures contracts [19]. - China will strengthen the construction of infrastructure and energy reserves [19]. - The average profit per ton of independent coking plants varies by region [19]. - The output, inventory, and demand of rebar have changed in the week of December 25 [20]. - Coal - mine production in Zhaotong, Yunnan, has been temporarily suspended [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm - oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [24]. - Sugar - mill operations and inventory in Guangxi have changed [24]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be slightly lower due to drought risks [24]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% and achieving a 7 - day winning streak [26]. - A - share listed companies' private placements have been active this year [28]. - The net inflow of the CSI A500ETF in December has been significant [29]. - Most private multi - asset strategy products have achieved positive returns this year [29]. - Analysts are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026 [29]. - The IPO application of Dapu Micro has been approved [31]. Industry - China has cracked down on financial "black - gray industries" [32]. - New regulations have been issued for the information disclosure of bank and insurance asset - management products [32]. - China will regulate the e - cigarette market [32]. - The government will strengthen the supervision of entrusted food production [32]. - Many game version numbers have been approved in December [33]. - Silicon - wafer prices have increased [35]. - China has made a breakthrough in the super - high - speed maglev field [35]. - Mobile phone shipments in China have increased [35]. - Shanghai will support the construction of the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor [35]. Overseas - Israel may have another military conflict with Iran [36]. - Hungary's Prime Minister believes the root of the Russia - Ukraine conflict lies in the decline of Western Europe [36]. - Japan's 2026 fiscal - year initial budget has reached a record high [36]. - Japan has raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year [38]. - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates [39]. - The Bank of Korea may cut interest rates in 2026 [40]. International Stock Markets - Japanese stocks rose slightly, while Vietnamese stocks tumbled [41]. - Morgan Stanley warns of three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026 [41]. Commodities - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new - energy materials leading the gains [42]. - The trading rules of platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [42]. - Russia's oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [42]. Bonds - China's bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and Japanese 2 - year bond auctions were weak [43]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Thursday [45]. 4. Upcoming Events - The People's Bank of China has 562 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing at 09:20 [47]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:30 [47]. - The 2025 Embodied Intelligence Development Frontier Conference and the 2025 Greater Bay Area Digital Chain Ecosystem Conference will be held on December 26 [47].