Report Overview - Report Title: "Agricultural Products: Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - 2026 Agricultural Market Outlook" [1] - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [3][48]. - Agricultural product prices are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio [3][48]. - Although the overall global agricultural product output is still increasing, the increment mainly comes from South America, with a high concentration. Global resource nationalism is intensifying, and geopolitical risks remain, increasing the risk premium of essential agricultural products [3][44][48]. - In 2025/2026, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of global rice, corn, and soybeans decreased. The prices of corn and soybeans are relatively low compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals and have fallen below the US planting cost for two consecutive years [3][48]. - It is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 due to low planting profits. Weather premium trading weight is increasing [3][48]. - The domestic hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025, with the possibility of passive capacity reduction during the consumption off - season. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities driven by the biodiesel policy for oils, the expected opportunities for the rapeseed - soybean meal price difference due to improved China - Canada relations, and the hog cycle reversal opportunities [3][44][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Prices Are Relatively Low - Since September 2025, gold has started a new upward trend. The expected Fed rate cut has increased the attractiveness of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar's credit has led to "de - dollarization" trading, and new consumption in AI computing power, energy storage, and photovoltaics has boosted the demand for precious metals [6]. - Since November 2025, silver has become the new leader in price increases, and the gold - to - silver ratio has accelerated its decline. Silver supply is limited by associated mining, and its demand has increased rapidly in new energy vehicles, energy storage, and photovoltaics [8]. - Since November 2025, non - ferrous metals such as brass and aluminum have seen accelerated price increases, and in mid - December 2025, nickel with high inventories also started to make up for the price increase, spreading to the entire non - ferrous metal sector [10]. - Agricultural product prices are at a historical low level. Compared with the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the relative position of agricultural product prices is low. Even after the recent sharp correction of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, this situation has not changed [12]. 3.2 The Fundamentals of Agricultural Products Are Gradually Improving - As of January 2026, USDA expects the global grain output in 2025/2026 to reach a new high (+4.2%), with rigid demand growth (+2.8%). The inventory - to - consumption ratios of rice, corn, and soybeans have decreased [13]. - In 2025/2026, the global rice output decreased by 0.03%, wheat output increased by 5.16%, corn output increased by 5.29%, soybean output decreased by 0.34%, rapeseed output increased by 10.66%, palm oil output increased by 2.31%, sugar output increased by 4.58%, and cotton output increased by 0.80% [15][17][20][24]. - The US soybean has been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $96.4 per acre, and the US corn has also been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $130.15 per acre [36]. - From October 2024 to now, the CBOT corn and soybean futures prices have been fluctuating at a low level, and it is expected that the US corn and soybean planting will continue to be in a loss - making state in 2025/2026 [38]. - The El Niño index has been negative since September 2024, and in January 2026, it was - 0.5, in a weak La Niña state, which is beneficial to the crop yield [40]. - USDA expects the US corn yield per acre in 2025/2026 to be 186.5 bushels, and the soybean yield per acre to be 53 bushels. The Brazilian corn yield per hectare in 2025/2026 is expected to be 5.8 tons, decreasing for two consecutive years, and the soybean yield per hectare is expected to be 3.63 tons, at a historical high level [42]. - The hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025 for 16 weeks, and after a short - term low - profit stage in January 2026, it is expected to continue to be in a loss - making state during the consumption off - season. Once the market enters the passive capacity reduction stage, the cycle reversal opportunity should be noted [44]. 3.3 Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities, with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [46]. - In 2025/2026, the US corn and soybean yields are at historical high levels. The market focuses on the expected reduction of the planting area in the US in 2026/2027 due to continuous negative planting profits. If the expectation is confirmed from March to May 2026, the weight of weather premium will increase from July to August [47]. - The prices of agricultural products are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio. The relative position of corn and soybean prices compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals is low, and it is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 [48].

一边是俄罗斯把自家压箱底的"抗制裁王牌"源源不断运往东方，另一边是咱中国央行已经连续十几个月默默增持黄金。 当最古老的财富象征，与最现代的大国博弈交织在一起，一个直击灵魂的问题浮现了：维系美国霸权半个多世纪的美元体系，是不是真的走到头 了？ 数据传达的信息，美国的焦虑 时间来到2026年，一组数据引起了人们的关注：仅仅在过去一年，从俄罗斯流向中国的黄金总量暴增了800%，达到25.3吨，价值接近16.3亿美 元。 这可不是什么普通的生意波动，要知道，现在金价可是在不断上涨的，1月29日，国际黄金价格甚至突破了每盎司5500美元大关。 我们要明白这件事的意义，就得先搞清楚这800%的增长到底意味着什么。这个数字背后，是两个大国在金融安全上极为清醒的盘算。 对俄罗斯来说，这是一条破解西方制裁的生存通道。 自打2022年超过3000亿美元的外汇资产被西方冻结，莫斯科就彻底明白了：手里攥着的美元欧元，关键时刻可能一文不值。 但黄金不一样，尤其是那2300吨多藏在莫斯科自家金库、不经过纽约伦敦市场的黄金，谁也冻不了、抢不走。 把这些 "终极硬通货"运到中国，能换回急需的人民币或者各种工业物资，等于在西方砌的金融围墙外， ...

近期，以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属市场，成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。 Wind数据显示，1月29日，伦敦现货黄金创下5598.75美元/盎司的历史新高，随后快速跳水；2月2日，最低至4402.06美元/盎司，区间最大跌幅超1000美元， 后续在反弹与回落中反复震荡；2月4日，盘中一度升破5000美元/盎司，2月5日，再次跌超3%。截至北京时间2月6日16时，国际黄金期货、现货价格围绕 4850美元/盎司波动。 其一，美联储政策相关事件尚未落定，下任主席提名通过、现任主席鲍威尔相关指控撤销等事项暂无定论，且美联储理事米兰辞任政府职务后，深耕美联储 的意图愈发明确，为后续政策博弈埋下伏笔；其二，美国1月就业、通胀核心数据将陆续披露，当前市场已形成就业持稳、通胀上行的共识，这一预期不利 于美联储降息预期进一步发酵；其三，2月COMEX白银期货交割数据表现中规中矩，能否复刻1月后期的发力走势尚不确定；其四，国内白银溢价仍处于套 利窗口打开区间，而显性库存尚未企稳回升，春节前部分投机买盘或面临出清压力。 在此轮贵金属下跌行情中，白银跌幅为何更加显著？ 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，就近期国际贵金属市场表现而言，白银领跌大 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 近期，以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属市场，成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。 数据显示， 1月29日， 伦敦现货黄金创下5598.75美元/盎司的历史新高，随后快速跳水；2月2 日，最低至4402.06美元/盎司，区间最大跌幅超1000美元，后续在反弹与回落中反复震荡；2月4 日，盘中一度升破5000美元/盎司，2月5日，再次跌超3%。截至北京时间2月6日16时，国际黄金 期货、现货价格围绕4850美元/盎司波动。 从历史新高到大幅回落，再到宽幅震荡，贵金属价格剧烈波动背后，是多重市场因素的交织博弈结 果。针对当前贵金属市场热点问题，多位期货机构分析师给出了专业解读与研判，跟着中证君一起 来看看吧！ 近期贵金属价格高位下跌，背后有哪些核心因素？ Q 广发期货研究所贵金属研究员叶倩宁 表示， 1月 贵金属价格受供应结构性紧张、 美元资产走弱提振投资需求等利好推动大幅上涨。 其一，美联储政策相关事件尚未落定，下任主席提名通过、现任主席鲍威尔相关指 控撤销等事项暂无定论，且美联储理事米兰辞任政府职务后，深耕美联储的意图愈 发明确，为后 ...

2026-02-06 15:55:39 作者：狼叫兽 全球央行持续购金构建了坚实支撑。高盛在最新报告中预计，各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，同时 随着美联储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。各国央行已开始通过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争 夺有限的黄金。 需留意的是，本轮黄金暴跌是多重因素叠加作用的结果。美联储主席人选变更是直接导火索——美国总 统提名鹰派人物为下一任美联储主席，动摇了市场对宽松货币政策的预期。而前期市场过热是内在原 因，金价在短期内大幅上涨，导致多头仓位极度拥挤。在此背景下，任何基本面变化都可能触发大量获 利了结盘。 二、现货黄金：直面波动市的利器 面对如此火爆的行情，投资者如何才能不错失良机？答案藏在现货黄金的独特交易逻辑中。 2026年1月的国际黄金市场，以史诗级走势重新定义了"新高"。1月29日亚盘，现货黄金价格首次突破 5500美元/盎司大关，本月累计涨幅已超过20%，呈现宽幅上涨走势，市场惊呼"几乎每天都在见证历 史"。然而，行情转折来得很快，黄金次日开启暴跌模式，总跌幅超过1000美元。作为香港黄金交易所 AA类79号行员，皇御贵金属专注现货黄金/白银投资服务十余载，拥有丰富 ...

本周市场整体出现震荡调整走势，市场风格也发生了一定的变换。前期涨幅较大的科技，资源等板块出 现了较大幅度回调，而调整已久的品牌白酒等消费板块则是出现历史性反弹，金融板块也出现了一定的 回升。 总体来看，2026年会有更多的板块参与轮动。在配置上，建议大家均衡配置，而不要集中押注在一个赛 道。例如，可考虑三分之一仓位配置于科技板块，三分之一仓位配置"中登股"（如军工、有色金属、新 能源），剩下三分之一仓位配置"老登股"（如品牌白酒等消费白马股）。这样的组合有望实现攻守平 衡。 回顾2025年，市场呈现出典型的"哑铃型"特征，"哑铃"的一头是以银行为代表的高股息板块，因受到追 求稳定回报的大资金关注而大幅上涨，甚至很多银行股去年创出新高。"哑铃"的另一头则是受益于"十 四五"规划的科技创新板块，如人形机器人、芯片半导体、算力算法、固态电池、量子技术、可控核聚 变、商业航天等方向，呈现轮番活跃的态势。而众多传统板块，被戏称为"老登股"，是"哑铃"的中间部 分，整体表现平平。 去年年底，我发布了"2026年十大预言"。其中，我明确提出，2026年市场的风格会更加多样化，更多板 块会轮动上涨，科技股依然是重要主线，但不 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 陈骏昊 投资咨询证号：Z0021546 黄金在近期经历了剧烈的"过山车"行情，1月以来，金价在强劲上涨后出现快速下挫，1月30日现货黄金 价格一度下跌超12%，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沪金主力合约在1月30日及2月2日的累计跌幅几乎回 吐了整个1月价格的涨幅。 信息来源：文华财经 那么本轮黄金的涨跌主要有哪些驱动？与历史涨跌行情相比有何差异？在目前高波动行情之下，作为普 通投资者，我们可以得到什么启示呢？ 历史与当下的三大核心逻辑差异 我们先来看近一年左右导致金价涨跌的主要驱动： 上涨逻辑： 1． 宏观驱动：美联储自2024年9月开启新一轮降息周期，流动性拐点到来，当下美联储双宽松预期依 然存在，全球经济不确定性较高； 2． 地缘冲突常态化：地缘紧张局势升级，当下俄乌、委内瑞拉、伊朗局势仍充满不确定性。美国保守 主义通过直接掠夺其他国家资产的方式呈现，令全球对抗、割裂的格局更加显性化，与贯穿2025年的关 税扰动相比，影响程度"更上一层楼"； 3． 全球战略性购金：各国央行的持续购金行为，正从战术配置逐渐转变为战略行为 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 市场总在讲述不同的故事 。 有些故事关乎增长，有些故事关乎恐惧。狂欢戛然而止，困惑与恐慌取而代之。这一次，故事的主角是黄金和白银。金价创下近四十年来最大的 单日跌幅，白银则一度将年内惊人的涨幅全部归还。但这真的仅仅关于黄金和白银吗？ 或许，我们更应该将它视为一堂公开课：当一种资产的价格，主要由一个激动人心却难以证伪的宏大叙事所驱动时，它的根基究竟是什么？当所 有人都拥挤在同一条船上，任何一点风向的改变，又会引发怎样的连锁反应？ 本文无意预测金银市场的下一站。我们更想借这次剧烈的波动，与你一同审视那些在狂热中容易被忽略的本质：资产的内在基因有何不同？推动 价格的力量来自哪里？以及最重要的——作为投资者，当市场的故事突然换档，我们该如何自处，才能避免成为纯粹的情绪俘虏？ 剥开具体数字的表象，我们将会走过三个阶段：看清驱动力的转换，理解不同资产的核心逻辑，最终回归到个人决策的纪律与静气。让我们开 始。 导火索背后：一次迟到的压力测试 01 这次暴跌，表面上看是因为美联储新主席的提名消息。但实际上，这是一次迟到的压力测试。 要理解这点，得回到推动之前 ...

金市大鲤：主要有两点。第一，对于市场判断而言，当遇到交易不顺或者连续亏损时，人容易觉得被市场"针对"，于是向外寻求"大腿"，期待与"高人"交 流，指望别人成为自己的英雄。但真相是：失败时若只顾寻找借口、盲从他人，只会耗尽本金、一无所获。没有人能替你负责，最终能拯救你的，只有自 己。 第二，关于善意与边界。不要因为自己赚了钱，就觉得能拯救别人。市场里没有谁需要你去"救"，你也救不了。各人有各人的因果，各自的理解与认知。保 持敬畏，专注做好自己，就是对市场最好的尊重。 金市大鲤：我喜欢通过看新闻、健身、喝茶、盘串、看书来调节状态。我不太认同"自律"这种说法——人们做一件事，往往只是因为它能带来快乐和沉浸 感，而不是因为它被定义为"好习惯"。所谓"噪音"，只对内心不纯粹的人存在。当你足够专注于自己热爱的事，就能自然保持平静。保持冷静，离不开足够 的阅历和认知。也许因为我是天秤座，习惯权衡利弊；也可能是因为过往的感性曾带来教训，所以选择用理性面对市场。 本期主题：2026搞钱指南 在波谲云诡的经济浪潮中，有人仰望星空，预判大势走向；有人深耕一域，洞察人性明暗；还有人俯身田野，在数据与生活的交汇处寻找答案。 搜狐号有这 ...

1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for stabilization [1] - Silver: Not recommended to participate [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Hold an empty position and wait and see [1] 2. Core Views - For precious metals, the recent sharp adjustment is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives, along with forced liquidations. However, the long - term support factors for gold remain stable [1][3]. - Copper is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, but long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][7]. - Zinc is facing weak demand and inventory accumulation in the short term, while long - term supply challenges may bring opportunities [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation and seasonal demand weakness [1][14]. - Nickel prices are relatively weak due to high inventory and weak consumption in the off - season [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are highly volatile, and it is advisable to hold an empty position due to regulatory and market risks [1][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets of gold and silver are in short - term adjustment. Gold prices on SHFE dropped by 3.15% and COMEX by 3.78%. Silver prices on SHFE dropped by 13.85% and COMEX by 19.84%. The gold - silver ratio has increased significantly [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The sharp drop in precious metals is a result of over - speculation in the short - term and forced liquidations. The long - term support factors for gold, such as central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty, remain intact. However, short - term market volatility needs to be digested [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold to stabilize, and avoid participating in silver in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of domestic gold around 1060 and silver around 19000, and continue to monitor the decline in volatility [1][4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai copper main contract dropped by 1.34%, LME copper by 1.42%, and COMEX copper by 3.48%. Trading volume increased by 18%, while open interest decreased by 5%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and copper concentrate processing fees have reached a new low. Domestic smelters plan to cut production, and refined copper supply is slowing. Although in the demand off - season, long - term demand from power, new energy, and other sectors is expected to support copper prices [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in copper cautiously in the short term, and keep a long - term perspective. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99000, 103000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai zinc main contract dropped by 0.40%, and LME zinc by 0.21%. Trading volume decreased by 5.68%, and open interest decreased by 10.97%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with social inventories increasing [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. However, emerging industries may offset some of the decline in traditional demand [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce positions in the short term, control risks, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of LME aluminum dropped by 1.21%, Shanghai aluminum main contract by 2.38%, and alumina main contract by 1.20%. Open interest in both aluminum and alumina decreased. Inventories increased, with SHFE aluminum inventory increasing by 10.01% and SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increasing by 2.33% [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but demand is in the off - season. Alumina prices are under pressure due to overseas bauxite prices and inventory issues [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The price of LME nickel dropped by 0.84%, Shanghai nickel main contract by 2.29%, and stainless steel main contract by 0.11%. Open interest in nickel increased slightly, while that in stainless steel decreased. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with SMM pure nickel social inventory increasing by 6.56% [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production in 2026, but the actual supply is uncertain. Domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season with weak demand and increasing inventory [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is [120000 - 145000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract LC2605 dropped by 9.81%, and trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products also declined, while the basis increased significantly [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant production is declining, and supply is expected to be tight. Demand may pick up due to pre - holiday stocking and policy adjustments, but regulatory risks are high [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an empty position, with the range of [12500 - 140000] yuan/ton [22].