Group 1 - The market experienced a dramatic reversal on Monday, initially driven by geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil prices soaring by 6% before collapsing by 7% as the situation stabilized [1][2] - The easing of geopolitical risks led to a shift in focus towards macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes, as market participants anticipated a possible interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The dollar faced significant pressure, marking its worst first half since 1986, as investors adjusted their positions and reduced exposure to the currency [4][6] Group 2 - The shift in market sentiment indicates a potential transition in the macroeconomic landscape, with the possibility of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve becoming apparent [3][8] - The ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market reflect a systematic move towards de-dollarization, particularly in Asia, where U.S. bondholders are actively re-hedging their positions [6][7] - The current market dynamics suggest a focus on momentum trading, with investors chasing favorable capital flows while underlying macroeconomic changes are brewing [8][9]

近年来，美国对华政策越来越走向极端。 从特朗普政府大张旗鼓地发起"贸易战"，到疫情期间美国不断指责中国，再到拜登政府加大对华制裁力度，美国将中国视作"威胁"的言论变得越来越直白、 公开。特别是在一些美国政客眼中，宣扬"中国威胁论"，甚至成为"反华先锋"，似乎是为自己政治生涯获取关注和话语权的捷径。为了迎合这一政治需要， 某些政客频频发表无视事实、充满荒谬的言论。 近日，美国总统竞选人妮基·黑莉更是公开表示，若中国停止购买美国国债，她将在当选总统后对中国采取报复和打击措施。言辞如此激烈，简直让人难以 置信！ 黑莉的言论就像是强买强卖的典型强盗逻辑，简直让人忍不住发笑。自她宣布参选2024年美国总统以来，这位印度裔女性候选人凭借自己独特的身份和一系 列极端的言辞吸引了不少眼球。虽然她的言论引发了热议，但她并非真正的总统热门人选——不仅在民主党阵营中有众多有力的竞争对手，在共和党内部， 民调也显示她的支持率远远落后于特朗普和德桑蒂斯。 正因如此，黑莉才急于通过攻击中国来吸引选民眼球、拉拢支持。她这种做法，实在是荒唐可笑。而这也恰恰暴露了美国经济背后的隐患——美国经济正在 深陷困境，需要一位真正有能力的人来应对这一局 ...

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Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices could spike to $110 per barrel, with a potential increase to $90 per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [1] - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are more susceptible to rising oil prices, with a $10 per barrel increase potentially reducing Asia's current account positions by 0.2% to 0.9% of GDP [3] - Panmure Liberum warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, stock markets could face a decline of 10% to 20%, with significant inflationary impacts similar to those seen in 2022 [4] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - HSBC analysts express concerns over the uncertainty of U.S. policies, suggesting that the dollar may face further depreciation, with the euro expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by Q4 [2] - The report from Saxo Bank notes that countries heavily reliant on oil imports, such as India and Thailand, will face multiple challenges including rising energy costs and currency depreciation [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Bank of America reports a growing interest in Japanese stocks as investors seek diversification due to high valuations in U.S. equities, despite ongoing trade uncertainties between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Citic Securities highlights the transformation of traditional cross-border payment systems, suggesting potential growth for participating banks amid a reshaping of the payment landscape [5]

Core Insights - The share of Renminbi (RMB) in global payment markets has significantly dropped to 2.89%, falling below the 3% mark and ranking sixth globally, overtaken by the Canadian dollar [1][2] - The decline in RMB's payment share is attributed to various factors, including market fluctuations and the diversification of RMB settlement channels, rather than solely the impact of trade tensions [2][7] Payment Share Overview - As of May 2024, the US dollar remains dominant with a 48.46% share, followed by the euro at 23.5%, which has increased by 1.4 percentage points [1] - The British pound holds a 7.1% share, while the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar account for 3.7% and 3.11% respectively, showing little change from previous months [1] RMB Payment Trends - RMB payment share fluctuated throughout 2024, peaking at 4.74% in July before declining to 2.9% in October, indicating normal monthly volatility rather than a definitive setback in internationalization [2][7] - The RMB's previous rise to the fourth largest payment currency was short-lived, with its share dropping significantly in recent months [2] CIPS and Internationalization Efforts - The China International Payment System (CIPS) is increasingly facilitating RMB settlements, with 180 direct participants and over 1,500 indirect participants across more than 180 countries [5] - CIPS processed 175 trillion RMB in cross-border payments in 2024, marking a 43% year-on-year increase, and has expanded its reach by adding new overseas financial institutions [5] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges faced by RMB internationalization, including significant gaps compared to the US dollar and euro, the potential for growth remains strong [7] - The rise of CIPS and the expansion of RMB swap agreements are seen as key drivers for the future of RMB internationalization [7]

美元霸权的"切尔诺贝利时刻"？——黄金大撤离与美联储的政治困境 历史学家或许会将2025年铭记为美元霸权崩塌的元年，以及黄金重回"货币之王"宝座的起点。这一年，政治对信任的摧毁，将人类重新推向对最原始硬通货 ——黄金的依赖。 这一切，都源于美国总统特朗普对美联储的持续施压，以及由此引发的全球黄金储备的"大撤离"。 2026年，现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期届满。此前，他或许从未料到自己会成为华盛顿政治角斗场中的一枚"人肉盾牌"。 特朗普在社交媒体上多次公开斥责 鲍威尔"动作迟缓"，并扬言在其任期结束后，将任命一位更为"听话"的美联储主席。此举赤裸裸地削弱了美联储的市场独立性，也对美元的信用造成了巨大 冲击。 德国和意大利，率先发出了将存放在美国的黄金运回本国的强烈呼声，这并非偶然。 这场围绕黄金的博弈，更像是一场精心编排的黑色喜剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部坚称不会因总统压力而改变政策，然而，高盛的报告却一 针见血地指出：每当特朗普发出一条批评美联储的推文，市场对通胀的预期就会跳涨1个百分点。 德国和意大利，分别持有全球第二和第三大黄金储备，储量分别为3352吨和2452吨，这些黄金都存放于纽约联邦储备银 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 "对等关税"至今，除了造成全球市场动荡外，更大的"后遗症"是冲击市场对美元资产作为安全资产的信心，使得"去美元化"成为共识。时至今日，全球市 场都已经修复了对等关税以来失地，唯独美元还在低位，也算是一种体现。市场的担心不仅是美元本身，而是对美元资产作为安全储备资产地位动摇的担 心，进而波及美债和美股，这才有了4月底阶段性的"股债汇三杀"。 图表1："对等关税"至今，美股维持超预期的强势，在全球资产中表现领先 但实际上， 市场在讨论这一问题时存在两个常见的误区：一是直接将美元走弱与"去美元化"画等号。 "去美元化"直接体现为美元走弱不假，但并非美元 走弱就是去美元的宏大叙事所致； 二是将美元弱和美股跌画等号。 美元和美股的关系不是单向和线性的，多数时间弱美元反而有利美股。"对等关税"至 今，尽管美元低迷、美股却逼近新高也说明了这一点。实际上，基于信用周期的走向， 我们认为四季度美元小幅走强，美股再度跑赢的可能性值得重视 （《 2025下半年展望：共识化的"去美元" 》）中提示。 此外， 当前高度趋同且基于宏大叙事的"去美元"共识也面临两个现实问题：一是预期过于拥挤，二是宏大叙事无法给出具 ...

牙买加体系后，通过"石油美元""芯片美元""数字美元"等外在形态与内部机制，美元霸权进入历史 新阶段，不断在国际货币体系中占据着主导地位。但是，国际主导货币具有全球公共品的属性，由一国 主权货币来承担，与生俱来就存在一些内在的不稳定问题。当前，美元霸权正经历结构性衰退，美国为 维系霸权采取了强化石油美元、金融制裁、债务货币化及数字美元布局等手段，但是这些措施反而加速 了国际货币体系的多元化转型。 面对变局，中国需要把握历史机遇，通过建立"金砖+"大宗商品人民币定价联盟、打造数字货币桥 与多边储备池、构建"一带一路"人民币债券生态系统等十大创新性举措，以技术突破和制度设计减少美 元依赖，为构建更加公平、稳定的国际金融秩序贡献力量。 一、美元霸权现状评估：数据驱动的多维度分析 美元作为全球主导货币的地位正面临着前所未有的挑战。通过系统分析与重点关注2022—2025年最 新数据，从外汇储备占比、汇率波动、贸易结算份额、债务水平、政策外溢效应及"去美元化"进程等六 个具体维度，采用定量与定性相结合的方法同时结合事件分析，全面考察美元霸权现状，结果显示美元 虽仍保持主要储备货币地位，但其份额已降至历史低点且汇率波动剧 ...

Group 1: Global Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market has experienced significant volatility since 2025, with spot gold prices reaching $3,362.39 per ounce as of June 23, reflecting an over 8% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have driven investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Central banks globally continue to increase gold purchases, with the World Gold Council reporting a total global gold demand of 1,206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: Investment Risks and Challenges - Key pain points in the gold market include high trading costs and lack of transparency, with traditional platforms often charging multiple fees that can increase costs significantly [4] - Liquidity issues are prevalent, with lengthy withdrawal processes and complicated audits preventing timely adjustments during extreme market conditions [4] - Regulatory scrutiny has intensified, with a 45% year-on-year increase in the number of non-compliant platforms identified by the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange [4] Group 3: Jinsheng Precious Metals' Competitive Advantages - Jinsheng Precious Metals emphasizes compliance and technology to create a robust investment platform, being a member of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange [5] - The company has established a full compliance system, ensuring transparency through unique transaction codes for trades over 0.1 lots, allowing real-time verification [6] - The platform offers a millisecond-level trading experience and smart risk control mechanisms, significantly reducing the risk of slippage and enhancing user experience [7] Group 4: Cost Optimization and Service Ecosystem - Jinsheng Precious Metals employs a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, reducing overall trading costs by over 30% for high-frequency traders [8] - The platform has a dedicated customer service team providing 24/7 support, ensuring quick responses and assistance for both novice and experienced investors [8] - The introduction of a "spread rebate" mechanism allows for immediate cash back after trades, further enhancing capital efficiency [8] Group 5: Strategic Investment Approaches - Investors can leverage key market events, such as Federal Reserve meetings, to anticipate gold price movements and adjust positions accordingly [9] - Long-term investors benefit from the platform's low fee structure and flexible contract designs, which can reduce overall costs by an average of 15% [9] - Short-term traders can utilize tools like the "volatility capture tool" to achieve average returns of 8% within specific price ranges [9] Group 6: Conclusion on Compliance and Efficiency - In the context of the 2025 gold "super cycle," choosing a platform with a strong compliance background and technological advantages is becoming a consensus among rational investors [10] - Jinsheng Precious Metals' unique features, such as rapid fund withdrawal and zero commission, align closely with investor needs, providing a stable return in volatile markets [10]

机构观点凸显多空博弈。连平等经济学家指出，此前巨大涨幅积累的获利了结压力可能引发调整，但各国央行增持黄金及"去美元化"趋势将限制下行空间。 花旗则预警金价或在三季度触顶（3100-3500区间），2026年下半年可能回落至2500-2700美元。值得关注的是，新兴市场持续购金为市场提供支撑，中国、 印度等国官方储备多元化需求仍是长期利多因素。 晚间重点关注美国6月PMI数据及美联储官员讲话，数据若超预期可能强化鹰派预期。建议投资者控制仓位，短线可依托3350-3380区间波段操作，中长线多 头需耐心等待技术筑底与政策转向的共振信号。黄金作为终极避险资产的价值未改，但阶段性调整正是优化持仓结构的契机。 地缘冲突的短暂提振难掩市场深层压力。尽管中东局势升级引发早盘避险买盘，但伊朗核设施实际损失有限，且美联储鹰派信号持续发酵，美元指数跳涨压 制了黄金吸引力。同时，投资者对美联储降息预期出现分歧——理事沃勒此前暗示"7月可能降息"的鸽派言论曾支撑金价，但上周美联储点阵图显示2026- 2027年仅各降息一次，政策路径偏鹰派令无息资产黄金承压。 技术面释放回调延续信号。金价自上周高点3450美元已回调约3%，日线MAC ...