Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports a gradual adjustment in global institutional asset allocation, with U.S. Treasuries under continued pressure and the dollar facing structural depreciation [1][2][4] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Adjustment - The report indicates that while there is no significant evidence of foreign investors massively selling U.S. Treasuries, global investment portfolios may be gradually adjusting [2][3] - The increase in the supply of "safe-haven assets" and the gradual adjustment in global asset allocation are contributing to the ongoing pressure on U.S. Treasuries [3] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - Analysts emphasize that the re-pricing of risk premiums on U.S. Treasuries and the weakening dollar are part of the adjustment process, aimed at compensating for the deterioration of risk portfolios and stimulating future demand from global investors [3] Group 3: Dollar Depreciation Trends - Goldman Sachs' FICC team highlights that uncertainty will not dissipate quickly, cautioning against being misled by short-term sell-offs [4] - Despite strong current U.S. economic data, risks remain, particularly if the economy enters a more severe period of growth weakness, which may take time to manifest [4] - The report suggests that the dollar's depreciation trend will persist in the long term, driven by tariffs, uncertainty, and recession risks [4][5] Group 4: Investor Behavior and Dollar Valuation - A significant number of leveraged investors hold dollar assets without hedging, indicating potential for a substantial increase in hedging ratios [5] - Historical data shows that the actual exchange rate of the dollar is currently about two standard deviations above the mean since the floating exchange rate era began in 1973, with past high valuation periods leading to a 25%-30% depreciation [5] - The International Monetary Fund estimates that non-U.S. investors hold up to $22 trillion in U.S. assets, suggesting that any reduction in their investment exposure could lead to significant dollar depreciation [5]

尽管美元已经大幅贬值，但主流观点仍倾向于认为美元将持续走弱。投行指出，其中的风险包括美国贸 易政策的急剧转变，以及海外大规模撤出美国资产投资的可能性。 德意志银行上周预测美元将出现"结构性下跌趋势"，巴克莱银行则提到了美元指数年初至今的跌幅（超 过8%），并暗示这种弱势"可能会持续"。 美元的贬值在很大程度上归因于特朗普的贸易关税政策，此外，这位美国总统对美联储及其主席的抨击 也在削弱人们对美元的信心。 拥有超过1万亿美元资产的英国基金管理公司施罗德（Schroders）将这些举措描述为"事实上对以美元为 中心的全球货币体系的摒弃"。 施罗德的大宗商品投资组合经理吉姆・卢克（Jim Luke）表示："特朗普根据贸易赤字规模（而非实际 的贸易壁垒）提议征收高额关税，这清楚地表明美国想要的不是自由贸易，而是平衡的贸易。" 与此同时，直到4月2日还看涨美元走势的高盛表示，关税被提高到了100多年来未曾见过的水平，"这将 导致美国资产的表现不再出色"。 高盛全球外汇主管卡玛克夏・特里维迪（Kamakshya Trivedi）表示："几周前我们改变了对美元的看 法，这在很大程度上是基于关税以及美国其他政策的转变，这些变 ...

"即便进一步朝着日元贬值、美元升值的方向发展也不足为奇，但目前的动向看起来比较迟缓"， 日美财长会谈并未提及纠正日元贬值、美元升值的具体措施，但对美国的不信任感依然存在回购 美元的动向有限…… "美国方面完全没有提及外汇水平目标以及相关框架的话题"，日本财务相加藤胜信在与美国财政 部长贝森特会谈后的记者会上如此表示。关于作为特朗普关税政策相关谈判的一环而举行的日美 财长会谈，之前市场上有很多人猜测美方会要求日方纠正日元贬值、美元升值。 其中，令人担心的是像1985年的《广场协议》那样，由主要国家协调合作采取行动纠正美元升值 的"第二个广场协议"，也被称为"马阿拉歌协议"。实际上，此次会谈并没有提出纠正美元升值的具 体措施，只是确认了"汇率由市场决定"等内容。 市场对美国的不信任感依然存在。4月以后，围绕对等关税反复无常的应对，加上有报道称特朗 普考虑解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，加剧了市场的担忧。抛售美元的趋势加速，4月22日，日元汇率 一度升至139日元左右的水平。创下了2024年9月以来的日元升值、美元贬值新高。 由于市场动荡，特朗普否认解雇鲍威尔等，试图平息事态，但代表美元相对于主要货币的综合实 力的美元指数年 ...

尽管近期美国经济数据表现尚可，但是高盛警告不要过早放松警惕，美国经济真正的负面冲击可能在5- 6月才会显现。从较长期的角度来看，美元结构性贬值将成为大趋势。 4月27日，高盛分析师Rikin Shah在最新研报中称，目前美国硬数据仍然坚挺，劳动力市场也没有显示迫 在眉睫的危险信号，加上潜在的关税协议可能给市场带来缓解。但市场还远未脱离险境，因为关税政策 给美国经济带来的负面影响，可能要到5月中旬或6月初才会更加明显地显现。高盛给出的理由如下： 美国消费者的提前采购可能会提振3月和部分4月的消费支出数据，这一现象已经开始显现。 同时，疲软招聘比大规模裁员更可能成为就业市场的关键变量，这意味着失业救济申请数据 可能不如往常那样具有指示意义。 报告指出，政策不确定性高企，消费者和企业信心处于低点，高盛仍然认为美国在未来12个月内陷入衰 退的概率为45%。 高盛还认为，考虑到关税的广泛性和单边性，美国企业和消费者将成为价格的接受者，如果供应链或消 费支出短期内相对缺乏弹性，美元还会贬值。 不确定性极高 关税影响挥之不去 高盛认为，目前正处于一个非常困难的时期，不确定性极高：1、不知道关税谈判的最终结果；2、不知 道关 ...

Group 1 - The market is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to "American denial," with a recommendation to sell U.S. stocks on rallies and buy international stocks and gold on dips [1][3] - Recent fund flows indicate an outflow of $800 million from U.S. stocks and an inflow of $3.3 billion into gold, suggesting a growing preference for gold [1][3] - Year-to-date performance shows gold leading with a gain of 26.2%, followed by government bonds at 5.6% and investment-grade bonds at 3.9%, while U.S. stocks have declined by 3.3% [1][3] Group 2 - The relationship between Wall Street and Main Street is undergoing a rebalancing, with U.S. household stock wealth shrinking by approximately $6 trillion this year [3] - The current market correction is driven by three key factors, referred to as "3B" factors [9] - A significant trend is the depreciation of the dollar, which is expected to benefit commodities, emerging markets, and international assets [11] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yield has seen its fastest increase of 50 basis points since May 2009 [15] - Consumer spending in the U.S. remains resilient despite economic challenges [16] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the 2020s may establish a new ceiling at 20 times, compared to historical averages [16]

SHMET 网讯：据报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普下周将在密歇根州举行集会庆祝执政100天。此次 集会将在特朗普上任100天之际举行——这是一个传统的早期里程碑，用于衡量总统的施政进展是否符 合竞选承诺。 就在特朗普接近这一节点之际，有无数迹象表明，特朗普第二任期的"百日执政"已演变成"百日变 局"。 130项行政命令推翻美政策基石 据国际金融报报道，执政百日之际，特朗普已签署了130项行政命令，规模前所未见，推翻许多美 国政策基石。 他在上任当天即签署了一项暂停向美国国际开发总署（USAID）提供资金的行政命令。 3月14日，他指示大砍"美国无家可归问题跨部门委员会"（US Interagency Council on Homelessness）和"少数族裔商业发展署"（Minority Business Development Agency）经费。 3月20日，特朗普在白宫签署一项行政令，要求教育部长琳达·麦克马洪采取一切必要措施推动教育 部的关闭，将教育管理权归还各州。 在4月8日的行政命令中，特朗普指示司法部，当涉及能源领域时，不要执行州政府所制定的"繁重 的"气候变迁相关法律。 特朗普显然非常反感"多 ...

Group 1 - The core observation is that the current high valuation of the US dollar, which is nearly two standard deviations above its historical average since the floating exchange rate era began in 1973, raises concerns about a potential significant depreciation of the dollar, similar to past occurrences in the mid-1980s and early 2000s [1] - The strong dollar is supported by a continuous influx of investment funds into US assets, with non-US investors holding approximately $22 trillion in US assets, accounting for about one-third of their total investment portfolios, predominantly in equities [3] - A potential reduction in non-US investors' exposure to US assets could lead to severe depreciation of the dollar, as the US must balance its annual current account deficit of $1.1 trillion with equivalent net capital inflows [3] Group 2 - The future strength of the dollar largely depends on the performance of the US economy, with recent downgrades in GDP growth forecasts by Goldman Sachs indicating a decline from 1% to 0.5% for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period this year [4] - Despite the depreciation pressures, the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is unlikely to be undermined unless faced with extreme shocks, as historical fluctuations have not diminished its core position in the global monetary system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. may pressure Japan to either accept high tariffs or cooperate in driving up the yen's value, as part of a strategy to reduce the trade deficit and lower tariffs [1][2][3] Group 1: U.S.-Japan Negotiations - Japan's Finance Minister will negotiate with U.S. officials regarding foreign exchange issues, with previous discussions indicating Japan's reluctance to make significant concessions [1] - The U.S. aims to link foreign exchange negotiations with tariff discussions, potentially pressuring Japan to make concessions [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications - A potential rise in the yen could lead to a decrease in Japan's GDP by 0.67% to 1.41% over two years, posing significant economic risks for Japan [2][7] - The U.S. administration's goal is to reduce the trade deficit, utilizing tariffs and a weaker dollar as tools to enhance U.S. export competitiveness [3][6] Group 3: Historical Context and Risks - Historical precedents, such as the Plaza Accord, show that coordinated efforts to devalue the dollar can lead to economic instability, raising concerns about the current strategy [5][8] - The actual effective exchange rate (REER) of the dollar indicates a strong dollar, which could hinder U.S. export competitiveness if not addressed [8]

智通财经APP获悉，当前财报季中，关税上涨与美元疲软正为企业盈利预期蒙上阴影，分析师预计未来 几个季度负面影响还将持续扩大。 随着美元兑欧元汇率跌至三年低点、兑瑞士法郎创十年新低，欧洲企业已纷纷拉响警报。这令本已因特 朗普贸易政策导致经济放缓风险而承压的股市雪上加霜。 鉴于斯托克600指数成分股企业60%的营收来自海外，美元大幅贬值将显著降低其以欧洲本土货币计值 的美国市场收益。受此影响，欧洲市场中对美业务敞口较大的股票随美元同步下挫，众多投资者正转向 以内需为导向的企业寻求避险。 欧洲市值最高的企业SAP SE(SAP.US)率先预警汇率风险。这家软件巨头首席财务官向投资者表示，美 元走弱将在中期形成盈利阻力，随着外汇对冲合约陆续到期，负面影响将在明年集中显现。 与此同时，荷兰啤酒巨头喜力集团(HEINY.US)预计，欧元走强将导致今年营收减少17.2亿欧元(20亿美 元)。法国医疗诊断公司BioMerieux和英国零售商WH Smith Plc在财报中也强调了汇率风险。 Lombard Odier Investment Managers宏观研究主管Florian Ielpo表示："欧洲企业必须清醒认识到， ...

2025.04. 23 本文字数：3342，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 最近几周，美国关税政策不确定性令全球经济前景蒙尘。同时，由此导致的政策信誉受损，也令美元 资产反噬，美国遭遇股债汇三杀，美元指数今年迄今，已跌超9%，并料将继续下跌。而美元走软， 给全球央行同时带来了缓解因素和头痛因素。 更大降息空间？ 资金流出美元资产反映了更广泛的信心危机，并可能产生溢出效应。例如随着美元走弱，美国进口通 胀率将上升。 对其他经济体而言，美元的下跌也导致其他货币对美元升值，尤其是日元、瑞士法郎和欧元等避险货 币。伦敦证交所（LSEG）的数据显示，自今年年初以来，日元对美元升值逾10%，瑞士法郎和欧元 升值了约11%。除了避险货币，今年对美元走强的其他货币还包括墨西哥比索对美元上涨5.5%，加 元对美元升值超过4%，波兰兹罗提对美元也升值了9%以上，俄罗斯卢布对美元甚至升值了约22%。 当然，尽管美元疲软，一些新兴市场货币对美元也仍然录得贬值。比如，本月稍早，越南盾和印尼盾 对美元汇率均跌至历史新低。土耳其里拉上周对美元也创下历史新低。 根据美国银行最近的全球基金经理调查，61%的参与者预计未来12个 ...