Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have dropped to a near three-week low due to a stronger dollar and improved risk sentiment following the US-EU trade agreement, with investors awaiting key US economic data this week that could influence gold prices [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The dollar's rebound is a significant factor pressuring gold prices, supported by strong US economic data such as core capital goods orders and optimistic trade negotiations [1] - The US Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance and President Trump's calls for interest rate cuts may provide potential support for gold prices [1][2] - Market sentiment is mixed, with only 14% of professional analysts bullish on gold prices, while 66% of retail investors remain optimistic about a price increase, indicating confidence in the long-term trend [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Actions - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, and stalled ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, continue to pose risks that could support gold prices if conditions worsen [2] - Central banks are increasing gold purchases as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy, particularly among emerging economies like China, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] Group 3: Upcoming Events and Technical Analysis - The market is anticipating significant events this week, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% [2][6] - Key economic data releases, including JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence index, ADP employment data, and the non-farm payroll report, will influence the Fed's future monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [6][7] - Technically, gold is currently oscillating around $3,335, testing a critical upward trend line, with support levels identified between $3,319 and $3,325 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current U.S. Federal Reserve's communication strategy is intentionally ambiguous, aiming to extend the negotiation cycle and create monetary space, influenced by political factors as the election approaches and inflation pressures persist [1][2] - The persistent inflation in the U.S. is attributed to structural cost increases resulting from a deep restructuring of the global supply chain, rather than traditional overheating demand or supply-demand mismatches [1] - The past 40 years of moderate inflation in the U.S. were largely supported by a global supply chain centered around China, which has been disrupted since 2021 due to geopolitical tensions and the breakdown of globalization [1] Group 2 - The sensitivity and vulnerability of global capital market valuations have increased, with a warning that lack of strategic coordination between the U.S. and China could lead to rising inflation expectations, higher interest rates, and a compression of valuations [2] - The adjustment of global asset prices is closely tied to the trajectory of geopolitical dynamics, emphasizing that the only path to resolving U.S. inflation issues is through easing tensions and rebuilding cooperative logic [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping $45 and hitting a low of $3301, marking four consecutive days of decline [1][3] - The market is currently facing resistance at the $3324 level, with potential for further downward movement towards the $3300 support [4][6] - A significant rebound is anticipated if the price can hold above the $3300 mark, with potential upward targets at $3324 and $3348 [7][8] Group 2 - Recent geopolitical developments, including agreements between the US and Japan, as well as the US and Europe, have contributed to a cooling of global trade tensions, impacting gold prices negatively [10] - Pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates has also influenced market dynamics, with a court ruling reinforcing the Fed's independence and leading to a stronger dollar [10][11] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the US housing price index and job vacancy index, are expected to affect market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, which are crucial for gold investment strategies [11]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, approaching a three-week low near $3300, influenced by a strong dollar and expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3][4] - A "multiple top" formation has been identified in the gold price chart, indicating strong resistance above $3434, with a critical support level at $3300; a breach of this level could lead to further technical selling [3][4] - If the support at $3300 is lost, further declines towards $3200 may occur, while a rebound could face initial resistance at $3340 and stronger resistance at $3370 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial; if no dovish signals are released, gold may enter a new technical downtrend [5] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the FOMC meeting and key U.S. economic data [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices are supported by strong summer demand and tight inventories, with potential for price increases if key resistance levels are broken [8] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. pressure on Russia and upcoming trade policy changes, contribute to market uncertainty [7][10] - Technical indicators suggest that if WTI crude oil prices break above $68.30, they could reach $70, while a drop below $65.20 may lead to a sideways trading pattern [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy** and **U.S. Treasury market** analysis, with a focus on macroeconomic indicators and fiscal policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Shifts**: The global macro trading narrative in 2025 has shifted multiple times, influenced by factors such as Trump's policies and trade disputes, with a need to monitor the potential reversal risks associated with "Taco trading" [1][5][6]. 2. **Impact of Trump's Policies**: The passage of the "Big Beautiful Plan" has enhanced Trump's negotiation flexibility, particularly as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, which could influence market dynamics [1][8]. 3. **Consumer Spending as Economic Indicator**: Personal consumption accounts for over 60% of U.S. GDP, making it a critical focus for assessing economic trends through retail sales and consumer confidence indices [1][12][16]. 4. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The U.S. real estate market is currently facing high interest rates and reduced housing demand, with new and existing home sales being key indicators to monitor [1][24][25]. 5. **Federal Reserve's Role**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is primarily driven by inflation and employment factors, with potential interest rate cuts expected in response to labor market weaknesses [3][9][44]. 6. **Treasury Market Dynamics**: The U.S. Treasury market serves as a global asset pricing anchor, with significant portions held by international investors, impacting global interest rates and capital flows [10][11][38]. 7. **Trade Policy Implications**: Trump's trade policies are a significant variable in macro trading for 2025, with the U.S. experiencing trade deficits while maintaining a surplus in services [26]. 8. **Labor Market Resilience**: The labor market shows signs of resilience, with non-farm employment data and unemployment rates being crucial metrics for understanding economic health [27][28]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Confidence and Retail Data**: Retail sales and consumer confidence indices are vital for gauging economic performance, with soft data sometimes conflicting with hard data [20][21]. 2. **Inflation Indicators**: Recent increases in core consumer prices suggest that tariff policies may be influencing inflation, which could affect future Federal Reserve decisions [33][34]. 3. **Market Reactions to Economic Data**: The relationship between stock and bond markets indicates that rising yields can negatively impact equity valuations, highlighting the interconnectedness of asset classes [14]. 4. **Federal Budget Concerns**: The U.S. fiscal budget process is complex, with recent spending levels raising concerns about fiscal sustainability, particularly with the "Big Beautiful Plan" increasing the deficit ceiling [36]. 5. **Investment Strategies in Treasury Market**: Current strategies suggest a focus on short-term Treasury securities due to anticipated interest rate cuts, while long-term securities face greater uncertainty due to inflation risks [47].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern under multiple factors. Gold maintained a volatile trend, while silver rose sharply and then fell back, but still had significant monthly gains. Looking ahead, precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the core drivers being policy expectation differentials and trade risk premiums [3][6]. - The Fed's July FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, if it signals a rate cut in September, it may trigger a weaker US dollar. The implementation of global tariffs on August 1 and the EU's €93 billion counter - measure plan (effective August 7) may cause supply - chain shocks, and the safe - haven demand still has the potential to surge [3][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - In July 2025, affected by factors such as escalating trade frictions, deepening policy games, and frequent geopolitical risks, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern. Gold was volatile, and silver rose first and then fell. By July 25, New York gold rose 0.71% monthly, Shanghai gold rose 0.82%, New York silver rose 5.49% monthly, and Shanghai silver rose 4.34% [3][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis (1) Uncertainty of Tariff Implementation and Safe - Haven Logic for Precious Metals - The US postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariffs is weaker than before, most trade agreements are still pending, which increases the uncertainty of the global trade system. The precious metals market shows a complex reaction, with local trade risk mitigation weakening gold's safe - haven appeal, while unresolved trade frictions still support safe - haven sentiment [16][18]. (2) Rate - Cut Expectations and Political Risk Premiums as New Drivers for Precious Metals - The Fed is facing internal divisions over the rate - cut path and external challenges to its policy independence from the Trump administration. The market's pricing logic for precious metals is shifting. Rate - cut expectations may limit the upside of precious metals, while political intervention has increased policy uncertainty and risk premiums, providing support for precious metals [19][20]. (3) Inflation: US CPI Rebounded in June - The US CPI data in June showed an overall moderate increase with the impact of tariffs emerging. As enterprises deplete their inventories, the impact of tariffs on inflation may intensify in the coming months. The market's expectation of the Fed's policy shift has weakened significantly, with the probability of the first rate cut postponed to September at 59.9% [21][25]. (4) US June Non - Farm Payrolls Exceeded Expectations - The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data in June reduced the probability of a rate cut in July and also shook the expectation of a rate cut in September. In the short term, it suppressed precious metals prices, but in the long term, the support factors for precious metals remained, and prices may maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern [26][30]. (5) US Treasury Real Yields Volatile, Dollar Index Declined - In July 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury real yields fluctuated violently, causing increased volatility in precious metals prices. The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's independence crisis weakened the US dollar's credit foundation, and the falling dollar index provided support for precious metals [40][42]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (1) Gold Market in Q1 2025 - In Q1 2025, the global gold market saw both supply and demand increase, with prices soaring. Investment demand was the core driver, with global gold ETFs rebounding strongly. The market showed structural changes, with gold jewelry demand falling to its lowest level after the pandemic, while the investment focus shifted from the over - the - counter market to gold ETFs [44][47]. (2) Silver Market - In 2025, the silver market remained in a tight supply - demand balance. The growth of photovoltaic and electronic industrial demand was the core driver. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase further, but there are policy and technological uncertainties. Silver is expected to experience a supply shortage again in 2024, and the shortage may widen [51][52]. 4. Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis (1) ETF Positions - In June 2025, the demand for global gold ETFs turned positive, driving strong performance in the first half of the year. North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions all saw inflows. By the end of June, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased by 41% to $383 billion, and the total holdings increased by 397 tons to 3616 tons [56][59]. (2) CFTC Positions - As of the week ending July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rebound in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold. The non - commercial net long positions in silver futures decreased, showing a decline in the market's bullish sentiment towards silver [62]. (3) Inventory Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by about 1.2% compared to the end of last month, COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 0.3%, SHFE gold inventory increased by about 58.23%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by about 8.6% [67]. 5. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. The COMEX gold may fluctuate between $3200 - $3450 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai gold between 760 - 820 yuan per gram. The COMEX silver may trade between $36.5 - $40 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai silver between 8800 - 9600 yuan per kilogram. In August, attention should be paid to factors such as the Fed's policy minutes, US inflation data, the impact of EU - US trade confrontation, and geopolitical black swan events, and positions should be adjusted flexibly based on key levels [3][73].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with a rebound from 3247 to 3438 followed by a decline, primarily driven by changes in economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Movements - The initial rebound in gold prices was supported by a decline in the US dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, which reduced the cost for non-dollar investors to purchase gold [3]. - Increased risk aversion due to approaching tariff negotiation deadlines and ongoing geopolitical conflicts led to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [4]. - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September enhanced gold's attractiveness, contributing to the price rebound [5]. Group 2: Key Reasons for the Subsequent Decline - A correction in the market's overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts occurred after strong economic data, including the PMI and CPI, indicated economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal [6]. - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan alleviated trade tension concerns, prompting a withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [8]. - A strong performance in the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq reaching new highs, shifted investor focus from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further pressuring gold prices [8]. Group 3: Future Market Focus Points - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 will be crucial; a hawkish signal could lead to a drop in gold prices to around 3300, while a hint at a September rate cut might trigger a technical rebound [9]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine and trade dynamics between the US and Europe, will influence gold's safe-haven premium [10]. - The continuity of strong US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and PCE price index, will shape expectations for sustained high interest rates, impacting gold's market dynamics [11]. Group 4: Trading Strategy for Next Week - The market is currently in a triangular range, with a potential rebound expected if prices remain above the 3300 support level; the 20-day moving average at 3260 serves as a critical defense point [12]. - A trading strategy suggests buying in the 3310-3312 range with a stop-loss at 3300, targeting 3322-3324, while considering short positions in the 3351-3353 range with a stop-loss at 3363, targeting 3339-3341 [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging market currencies such as Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea, which are expected to stabilize their currencies and attract capital inflows [4]. Core Insights - Despite strong recent employment data in the U.S., the GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 is only 30 basis points, with a 40% chance of a mild recession, leading to a continued weakening of the dollar [1][2]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to 4% by year-end, which will benefit fixed income products, including local bonds in emerging markets [1][5]. - A 1% change in the broad dollar index typically results in an additional inflow of $35-40 billion into emerging market local currency indices [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report predicts a weak global economy and trade tensions impacting emerging market currencies, but highlights potential strength in specific countries with significant domestic reforms [1][4]. - The dollar's recent rebound is attributed to short positions and strong employment data, but this is expected to fade over time [2]. Emerging Market Currencies - The euro is projected to approach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025, with potential for further appreciation [3]. - Countries like Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea are identified as having strong currencies due to domestic reforms [4]. Fixed Income Market - The anticipated decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are expected to support local bond markets in emerging economies [5]. - Historical data suggests that significant capital inflows could return to emerging markets if the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone maintains growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are likely to remain high or continue to rise in the future, with a low probability of significant short-term declines, but potential risks such as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions should be monitored [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, aimed at diversifying foreign reserves and reducing dependence on the US dollar [5]. - China, as the largest identifiable buyer, has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months as of 2025, with some central bank purchases remaining undisclosed, providing implicit support [5]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Historical trends indicate that gold prices tend to rise rapidly during escalations in geopolitical conflicts, with limited pullbacks [5]. - Investment demand is recovering, with significant net inflows into gold ETFs in Q1 2025, suggesting renewed interest from Western institutions and individual investors [5]. - Strong physical gold demand in China saw a nearly 30% increase in Q1 2025, driven by its investment attributes [5]. - Supply growth is slow, with mining output struggling to increase and rising costs, while old gold recycling has slightly decreased year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 2: Future Price Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario: Gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing central bank purchases, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Target price: Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce (approximately 930 yuan per gram) by mid-2026, nearing the 1,000 yuan per gram target [5]. - Neutral Scenario: Gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations driven by persistent inflation pressures, high interest rates, and stable investment demand without significant growth [5]. - Price range: International gold prices may fluctuate between $3,000 and $3,500 per ounce (approximately 700-820 yuan per gram) [5]. Group 3: Potential Downside Risks - Persistent inflation above expectations could lead the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even raise rates, diminishing gold's attractiveness [5]. - A significant reduction in geopolitical tensions could weaken safe-haven demand, potentially leading to a price pullback [5]. - A strengthening US dollar due to better-than-expected economic recovery in the US or recession in other regions could pressure gold prices [5]. - A slowdown in central bank gold purchases or reductions in holdings by some countries could undermine market confidence [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term allocation: Gold is recommended as a part of an asset portfolio, with a suggested allocation of 5%-15% [5]. - Short-term trading: Investors should monitor key events related to geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and inflation data to adjust positions flexibly [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite rising calls for interest rate cuts from President Trump and speculation about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the Fed's policy rate outlook remains largely unchanged due to increasing inflation pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, as inflation data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.4% to 2.7% in June [2] - The trend of declining commodity prices is reversing, contributing to overall inflation and suggesting that businesses may be passing some costs onto consumers [2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that inflation may be at a "turning point," with nearly half of the goods experiencing annualized price increases of 5% or more, double the rate from January [2] - Fed officials project that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% by the end of the year, but they only anticipate a 0.5 percentage point rate cut, which is significantly less than market expectations [2] - There is a general consensus among Fed officials against aggressive rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index is facing key resistance in the 97.80-98.00 range, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern, creating multiple technical pressure points [3] - Momentum indicators show mild bullish signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering to near the neutral zone of 50, indicating a restoration of market momentum, though it has not yet reached overbought conditions [3]