在美国联邦政府可能陷入停摆的阴影下，投资者对美联储货币政策路径的不确定性日益加深，纷纷涌入贵金属寻求避险，推动金价在周一创下历 史新高，现货白银亦走高。 现货黄金周一亚洲早盘上涨1.19%，触及每盎司3805.88美元的历史最高点，实现了连续第六周的上涨。美国12月黄金期货价格也上涨0.6%，至 3831.90美元。 现货白银日内上涨超2%，触及47美元/盎司，续刷2011年5月来新高。美元指数走弱0.2%，使得以美元计价的黄金对海外买家更具吸引力。 这轮涨势的直接催化剂，是华盛顿迫在眉睫的政治僵局。如果白宫与国会民主党人无法在周二最后期限前就短期支出法案达成一致，美国政府将 面临停摆。此举或将导致本周关键的非农就业市场报告推迟发布，使市场和美联储都无法获得评估经济健康状况的关键指标。 对于投资者而言，这意味着美联储在10月议息会议上的决策将蒙上更浓重的迷雾。市场普遍预期，疲软的就业数据将为美联储进一步降息提供理 由，而降息将降低持有无息资产黄金的机会成本。在经济和政策前景不明朗的背景下，黄金的避险属性再度凸显。 Capital.com的分析师Kyle Rodda表示： "美国温和的通胀数据让市场有理由相信， ...

| 2023-00 | ZUZ4-UB | 00-6707 | 22 ETF-SPOR ETF-SLVIRET - 200 | 2025-09 | 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | ●SHFE金银比价 | -- | -- 伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -- 白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦 ...

新华财经北京9月29日电上周（9月22日至26日当周）国际金价在震荡后继续强势走高。当周，国际现货 黄金开盘3685.48美元／盎司，最高触及3791.09美元／盎司，当周上涨75.46美元或2.05%。 降息预期波动、超预期的宏观数据，叠加地缘风险及政治不确定性共同推动下，现货黄金上周再度刷新 纪录新高至3791美元／盎司后陷入短期震荡，但在美元走强的情况下，金价仍连续第六周收阳。 展望新的一周，市场的焦点将转向美国9月非农就业报告，这将是判断劳动力市场状况和美联储未来政 策路径的关键。同时，美联储官员也将陆续发声，加上美国政府在10月1日新财年开始前能否避免"停 摆"，以及全球地缘政治的新变化，都将成为搅动黄金市场短期剧烈波动的重要因素。 美联储降息后分歧严重美国8月核心PCE数据支持"渐进宽松" 其后，FOMC今年票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告不要进行一系列降息，称其对通胀问题仍存忧 虑，下次会议不愿支持降息。这一言论进一步促使金价从历史高位回落，低点一度跌至3717.57美元／ 盎司。 进入新的一周，美联储官员又将集体发声，或将再度引发市场降息预期的波动。加之美联储理事库克警 告最高法院，如果被解雇 ...

Group 1: Metals Gold - Trump's new tariffs and Fed rate cuts boost gold. Short - term, it's still bullish but may fluctuate during holidays [1] Silver - US economic data and Trump's tariffs increase Fed rate - cut uncertainty. Silver is short - term bullish with holiday risks [7] Iron Ore - Overseas shipments fall, arrival increases. Short - term price will fluctuate due to demand and capital factors [5] Rebar - Seasonal demand improves but inventory is high. Policy may support, so short - term price is under pressure [4] Copper (Not mentioned in the text) Aluminum (Not mentioned in the text) Group 2: Energy Crude Oil - Attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential sanctions support prices. Supply surplus remains. Suggest to wait and see [11] Natural Gas (Not mentioned in the text) Coal - Coke production drops slightly, but downstream procurement is active. Coal price will be stable before the holiday [5] Group 3: Chemicals Methanol - High domestic production, rising demand, and inventory decrease. Short - term, 01 contract may fluctuate weakly [2] Plastic - LLDPE price rises slightly, production drops, and inventory decreases. Demand improves. Short - term price will fluctuate [10] PVC (Not mentioned in the text) PTA (Not mentioned in the text) MEG (Not mentioned in the text) Styrene (Not mentioned in the text) Rubber - Supply may increase, downstream replenishment is mostly done. Short - term, price will fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - Supply increases, demand is affected by rain. Price will maintain a range - bound movement [13] Soda Ash - Supply is high, demand is average. 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term [9] Group 4: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - Affected by pre - holiday sentiment, it will mainly fluctuate strongly. Track import/export and inventory [6] Soybean - Domestic supply increases, demand is waiting for new grain. Short - term, it will be under pressure [6] Corn (Not mentioned in the text) Wheat (Not mentioned in the text) Sugar (Not mentioned in the text) Cotton (Not mentioned in the text) Live Pig - Supply exceeds demand, price is weak. Short - term, bounce space is limited [7] Group 5: Financial Products Treasury Bonds - Monetary policy is loose, real - estate policy may change. Long - term, it may be bearish for bonds [8] Stock Index Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Interest Rate Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Foreign Exchange Futures (Not mentioned in the text)

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 经济数据上修降低降息预期，美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 2.5%，预期1.7%，前值1.6%； 美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率终值 3.8%，预期3.30%，前值3.30%；本周经济数据对市场的影响加 大，在2季度经济数据显示向好后，市场降低了美联储降息的必要性，市场对美联储10月维持利率不变 的预期概率由10%上升至15%；美国9月标普制造业PMI录得50.2，仍处枯荣线之上。 混沌天成期货分析指出，中长期而言，全球货币债务信用和全球地缘政治逆全球化仍是主要支撑，但短 线交易上仍需关注波动率，避险和宽松交易的区别。长周期向上逻辑不改，且存在发酵上攻的可能，但 从交易角度仍需谨慎对待短线波动，这一轮上行上攻的势能存在放缓的可能，且假期美国的非农数据将 对宏观主线形成较大干扰，假期前仍需保持合理仓位。 随着美联储降息落地、避险情绪升温及资金持续涌入，上周金价显著抬升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期 货价格周度上涨2.27%报3789.8美元/盎司，周内再创历史新高，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）周度涨3.35%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨4.41%。 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices significantly increased due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, rising risk aversion, and continuous capital inflow, with COMEX gold futures up 2.27% to $3789.8 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [1] - Economic data revisions have lowered expectations for further interest rate cuts, with Q2 personal consumption expenditures revised to a 2.5% quarterly rate, above the expected 1.7% and previous 1.6% [1] - The Q2 annualized GDP growth rate was revised to 3.8%, exceeding both the expected and previous rates of 3.3% [1] Economic Data Impact - The market's perception of the necessity for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates in October rising from 10% to 15% [1] - The September S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.2, remaining above the expansion-contraction threshold [1] Market Analysis - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to global monetary debt, credit issues, and geopolitical factors, while short-term trading requires caution due to volatility [1] - The potential for upward momentum in gold prices remains, but short-term fluctuations may slow down, especially with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to impact macroeconomic trends [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, precious metals are expected to maintain a high - level, volatile, and bullish trend. The core drivers are the Fed's policy path, geopolitical risks, and physical demand support. Gold jewelry demand may recover during the traditional consumption peak season in October, and investors' willingness to allocate gold and related products may increase. The prices of gold and silver may rise if the Fed continues to send loose signals or geopolitical conflicts escalate; otherwise, strong US economic data and rising inflation may suppress their performance. Technically, the core fluctuation range of COMEX gold is 3550 - 4000 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 810 - 900 yuan per gram for Shanghai gold), and that of silver is 42 - 50 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 9800 - 11800 yuan per kilogram for Shanghai silver). [4][76] Summary of Relevant Chapters 1. Review of the Futures Market - **Price Trends of Gold and Silver**: In Q3 2025, the precious metals market first fluctuated and then soared. From July to August, prices consolidated at the bottom, and in September, they rose sharply due to the Fed's interest rate cut, rising risk - aversion, and capital inflows. As of September 27, New York gold reached a high of 3824.6 US dollars per ounce and closed at 3789.8 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai gold hit a record high of 865.28 yuan per gram and closed at 862.50 yuan per gram. New York silver broke through 45 US dollars per ounce, reaching a high of 46.945 US dollars per ounce and closing at 46.365 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai silver exceeded 10,000 yuan per kilogram, hitting a high of 10974 yuan per kilogram and closing at 10936 yuan per kilogram. Since September, the cumulative increase of silver has exceeded 10%. [3][7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The current gold - silver ratio is about 82 (domestic) and 85 (overseas), higher than the historical average, indicating that silver is undervalued and has substantial room for a catch - up. Historically, a high gold - silver ratio is followed by silver's catch - up, and the recent strong performance of silver reflects this repair logic. [14] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed's September Meeting**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. Most officials expect two more 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, but there are differences among officials. The removal of Fed governor Cook by President Trump has added political and legal uncertainties to the Fed's decision - making. [20][21] - **Geopolitical Risks**: In Q3, the Middle East conflict intensified, and the Israel - Houthi armed conflict affected trade. The Russia - Ukraine conflict entered a new stage, with the US changing its stance and increasing military aid to Ukraine, and the confrontation between the two sides becoming more entrenched. Geopolitical uncertainties have increased market risk - aversion and may drive up the prices of precious metals. [23][26] - **Inflation**: In August, US PPI data showed a slowdown in inflation, while CPI data indicated that inflation was still controllable. PPI's slowdown provided room for the Fed to cut interest rates, and CPI's stability reduced the risk of policy reversal. [28][29] - **US Economic Signals**: The Q2 2025 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, mainly driven by consumer spending and net exports. However, the labor market was weak, with August's non - farm payrolls falling far short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and employment structure deteriorating. In the short term, weak employment data increased the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts; in the long term, it may support precious metals. The manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, while the non - manufacturing PMI expanded. The 8 - month PCE price index was in line with expectations, and the market expected further rate cuts by the Fed. [31][34][36] - **Real Interest Rates and the US Dollar Index**: In Q3 2025, the 10 - year real interest rate and inflation expectations declined, and the US dollar index fell and is now fluctuating around 97. [51][52] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals - **Gold**: In Q2 2025, the global gold market had both supply and demand increasing, with the price hitting a record high. Supply totaled 1,249 tons, with mined gold production reaching a quarterly record high and recycled gold supply increasing. Investment demand was the core driver, with gold ETFs having strong inflows for two consecutive quarters, and central bank gold purchases supporting the market. High prices led to a decline in jewelry and technology gold demand. [54] - **Silver**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a slight decline in total demand but a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a supply - demand gap. In 2024, silver supply increased moderately, and demand was structurally differentiated, with industrial demand hitting a record high. In 2025, total supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, total demand to drop slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, and the supply - demand gap to reach 117.6 million ounces. [58][59] 4. Analysis of Positions, Inventories, and Seasonality - **ETF Positions**: In August 2025, global gold ETFs had inflows for the third consecutive month, with Western markets leading. North America had the largest inflow, followed by Europe, while Asia had outflows. [62] - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rise in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold, while the non - commercial net long position of silver futures decreased, suggesting a rise in the market's bearish sentiment towards silver. [69] - **Inventory Analysis**: As of September 24, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased compared to the end of Q2 2025, while SHFE gold inventory increased and silver inventory decreased. [72]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened higher on September 26, with the Dow Jones up 0.49%, S&P 500 up 0.26%, and Nasdaq down 0.02% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.72% [2] Stock Performance - Major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones at 46,174.23 (+226.91, +0.49%), S&P 500 at 6,622.17 (+17.45, +0.26%), and Nasdaq at 22,380.21 (-4.49, -0.02%) [3] - Chinese concept stocks experienced a downturn, with notable declines: Kingsoft Cloud down over 11%, Daqo New Energy down over 8%, Bilibili down over 5%, and NIO down over 6% [3] Technology Giants - Among the tech giants, Tesla rose by 0.43% to $425.215, Amazon increased by 0.37% to $218.960, while Nvidia fell by 0.90% to $176.091 [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, reaching $3,780 per ounce, with a rise of approximately 0.8% [6] - Deutsche Bank noted that gold prices are driven by risk aversion, with predictions of gold potentially reaching $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce by 2026 under various scenarios [9] - Analysts suggest that despite recent price increases, gold remains a favorable long-term investment due to potential monetary policy changes and ongoing market risks [9]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened higher on September 26, with the Dow Jones up 0.49% and the S&P 500 up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.72%, indicating a general pullback in Chinese concept stocks [2] Key Stock Movements - Major Chinese concept stocks saw significant declines, with Kingsoft Cloud down over 11%, Daqo New Energy down more than 8%, Bilibili down over 5%, and NIO down over 6% [2] - Among the tech giants, Tesla rose by 0.43%, Amazon by 0.37%, while Nvidia fell by 0.9% [3] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices surged, reaching approximately $3,780 per ounce, with a rise of about 0.8%. By 23:00, London gold was up 0.79% at $3,778.475 per ounce, and silver increased by over 1% [3] - Deutsche Bank noted that gold prices reached record highs due to heightened risk aversion among investors, who are concerned about significant downside risks in the stock market [5] - Goldman Sachs projected that gold prices could soar to $4,000 per ounce by 2026 under baseline scenarios, and potentially reach $4,500 per ounce in tail risk scenarios. If just 1% of U.S. Treasury holdings were to flow into gold, prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [5] Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts from Huatai Securities indicated that despite short-term pressures from interest rate cuts, the long-term trend for gold prices remains bullish due to potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy after the current Fed Chair's term ends [5]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market showed mixed trends on September 25, with gold prices consolidating at high levels while silver prices surged significantly [1][2] - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3780.5 per ounce, up $12 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - Positive U.S. economic data released on the same day, including a revised annualized GDP growth rate of 3.8% for Q2, exerted pressure on gold prices as the U.S. dollar strengthened [1][2] Group 2 - The silver futures for December delivery rose by $1.355, closing at $45.470 per ounce, marking a 3.07% increase, as the gold price faced short-term pressure [2] - The overall expectation for policy easing remains unchanged, contributing to a risk-averse sentiment and driving demand for precious metals [2] - The labor market data, including initial jobless claims at 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000, indicates resilience in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future monetary policy [1]