截至 2025 年，美国国债总额已如脱缰野马，突破 36 万亿美元大关。这一数字远超全球 GDP 排名第二的中国 2023 年约 18 万亿美元的 GDP 总量，甚至相 当于德国、日本、印度三国 2023 年 GDP 之和还多。 知道为什么特朗普天天等着中国给他打电话吗？ 期望中国对关税妥协只是表层原因，根本原因是因为，美债的游戏快玩不下去了。 2025年是美国最困难的一年，而40天后，也就是6月份，即将是美国最艰难的一个月。 美债规模的惊人膨胀：一颗随时引爆的 "金融炸弹" 当下，美国虽将打压中国视为重要战略，但这并非燃眉之急。真正让特朗普乃至美国政府焦头烂额的，是美债游戏即将难以为继。 一直以来，美国凭借美元霸权在全球范围内肆意侵吞资产，然而，这种行径并非毫无代价。 还不起钱该怎么办？ 普通人还不起钱，可能沦为老赖；企业还不起钱，可以宣布破产。但政府既不能像老赖一样逃避责任，也无法像企业那样宣告破产，于是，"借新还旧" 成 了美国政府的无奈之举。 如此庞大的债务规模，不仅需要巨额资金偿还本金，每年产生的利息更是天文数字。以当前 10 年期美债利率 4.3% 计算，仅利息支出每年就高达约 1.55 万 亿美 ...

Group 1: US Market Analysis (2009-2011) - The US real estate market bottomed out without significantly affecting economic recovery, which drove a strong stock market [3][9][11] - The stock market's upward momentum was primarily driven by the recovery of personal consumption, manufacturing, and exports [3][17][25] Group 2: Japan Market Analysis (2012-2013) - Japan experienced a slight rebound in real estate, leading to a long bull market driven by government investment and quantitative easing [3][32][33] - The stock market's rise was supported by increased public investment and the Bank of Japan's purchase of risk assets [3][41][51] Group 3: Germany Market Analysis (2022-2023) - Despite a decline in real estate prices and economic recession, the German stock market continued to rise [3][58][62] - The stock market's growth was fueled by corporate globalization and favorable liquidity conditions [3][70][74] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market may experience a bull market driven by the bottoming out of real estate, along with rebounds in consumption, investment, and liquidity [3][4]

2025年4月11日-对现金的急切需求促使各类资产遭到抛售，其中包括美国国债。尽管存在通缩担忧，债券收益率近期却有所上升。 全球金融危机期间： 美联储选择量化宽松政策来支撑国债销售是否只是时间问题？如果美联储宣布量化宽松，这会是股市触底的信号吗？美联储会在实 施量化宽松前将利率降至零吗？ 回顾近期量化宽松的历史，可以发现一种常见模式：先是美联储降息，接着股市见顶，随后量化宽松政策启动，最后股市触底。 | | Event | Date | Fed Rate | S&P500 Drawdown from Peak | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | First rate cut 5&P peak | 17 Sep 2007 9 Oct 2007 | 5.25% (Peak) 4.75% | | | Global Financial Crisis | Fed balance sheet starts to expand in response to a money market fund "breaking the | 16 Sep 2008 | 2.00% | 19% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of money on the economy, exploring various aspects such as government debt, central banking, quantitative easing, and the implications of cryptocurrencies on the global financial system [2]. Group 1: Money Creation - The article outlines how money is created by governments and banks, emphasizing the role of budget deficits and central banks in generating deposits and liquidity [5]. - It explains the concept of "money begetting money" and identifies the two main sources of money creation [5]. Group 2: Government Debt - The article argues that government debt does not need to be repaid in the traditional sense, challenging the notion that governments operate like households [6]. - It discusses the purpose of bonds and the implications of foreign-held debt, as well as the limitations of the debt-to-GDP ratio as an economic indicator [6]. Group 3: Inflation Targeting - The rationale behind setting a 2% inflation target is examined, including how central banks control inflation through interest rate adjustments [6]. - The article critiques traditional economic models and their misleading nature regarding monetary policy [6]. Group 4: Quantitative Easing - Quantitative easing is described as a necessary measure when traditional monetary policy tools are exhausted, highlighting its role in refinancing government debt [7]. - The article also addresses the relationship between quantitative easing and economic inequality [7]. Group 5: Wealth and Inequality - The article discusses how money creation can lead to wealth inequality, emphasizing the inherent disparities in market dynamics and executive compensation [7]. - It highlights the challenges of taxing the wealthy and the importance of supporting the less fortunate [7]. Group 6: Destructive Forces of Money - The article explores the destructive potential of money, particularly in the context of financial crises and liquidity mismatches [7]. - It discusses the role of central banks as lenders of last resort and the associated risks [7]. Group 7: The Eurozone - The article critiques the incomplete construction of the Eurozone, arguing against the separation of monetary and fiscal sovereignty [8]. - It highlights the unique characteristics of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing measures [8]. Group 8: The Dollar as a World Currency - The article explains how the U.S. dollar became the world's primary currency, discussing the dynamics of currency flow and the role of the Federal Reserve [8]. - It addresses the concept of the "impossible trinity" in international finance [8]. Group 9: Future of Cryptocurrencies - The article evaluates the potential future of cryptocurrencies, discussing their foundational concepts and the challenges they present [8]. - It also considers the implications of central bank digital currencies [8].

Group 1 - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated that despite recent volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds due to President Trump's trade policies, the financial markets are functioning well. She noted that the market appears tense but is self-regulating effectively [1] - The recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries has pushed long-term yields higher, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%. This has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to intervene if the bond market continues to deteriorate [1] - Deutsche Bank and Jefferies strategists suggested that if market turmoil persists, the Federal Reserve might need to consider emergency quantitative easing, such as purchasing bonds [1] Group 2 - Jefferies economist Thomas Simons suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider using tools from past crises, including the suspension of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) requirements, to help dealers expand their balance sheets [2] - Hammack expressed skepticism about whether adjusting the SLR would alleviate market pressures, stating that it is unclear if removing SLR restrictions would increase the risk tolerance of banks and other intermediaries [2] - Policymakers typically intervene in the market during extreme signs of credit market freeze, and officials currently expect to maintain interest rates until they better understand the overall economic impact of Trump's policies [2] Group 3 - Hammack stated that after officials lowered borrowing costs by a full percentage point last year, interest rates are now "moderately restrictive." She prefers to wait for clearer economic trends before making policy adjustments [3]

美国，汇债"双杀"！ 当地时间4月9日，美股在盘初大幅震荡后，目前主要指数均转涨。值得注意的是，近日，由于美国所谓"对等关税"政策影响，美股市场大幅波动，周二，美 股道指一度涨近4%，标普500指数和纳指均一度涨超4%，但最终均以下跌收盘。自4月2日以来，美股三大指数跌幅均超过10%。 而比美股麻烦更大的是美债。近3个交易日，10年期美债遭到抛售，收益率持续攀升，最高触及了4.45%，最高涨超60个基点，波动可谓之大。与此同时，美 元指数亦大幅下挫，日内一度跌超1%。 分析人士认为，美国国债市场面临的问题比股市的问题更加严重。而美国经济的前景同样不容乐观，不少分析师认为，美联储出手的概率正在增加。 更引发市场关注的是美债，被誉为"资产之锚""避险之王"10年期美债连续3个交易日被抛售，今日，10年期美国国债收益率一度攀升到4.45%，与4月4日盘中 3.86%最低收益率相比，上行约65基点。 周三晚些时候，美国财政部将举行一场10年期债券拍卖，预计规模将达到390亿美元。在周二的3年期美国国债拍卖出现需求疲软。此前，美国国债的最大持 有者以及这些拍卖的潜在竞标者包括日本、中国和英国。 消息面上，4月9日，中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors' stance on the US stock market is wavering, with Morgan Stanley indicating that the market may face deeper adjustments if foreign capital begins to question the "American exceptionalism" narrative and withdraws from the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "fast money" has exited the market, with hedge fund net exposure dropping to 37%, currently rising to 39%, which is in the 2nd percentile since 2010 [2]. - Macro systemic leverage has decreased to the 14th percentile, following a sell-off of $375 billion in stocks [2]. - Retail investors have not capitulated yet, and long-term investment clients of QDS have not shown panic selling [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Concerns - Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings in US stocks over the past 30 years, currently owning 18% of US equities [2]. - If this group begins to question the "American exceptionalism" and reduces their investments in US stocks, it could lead to more downside risks in the market [2]. Group 3: Tactical Outlook - QDS anticipates that stocks may be more likely to rise than fall in the coming week, but the market is expected to retest lows in the coming months due to the impact of tariff shocks and slow-moving investor sell-offs [5]. - Recent signs of capitulation include hedge fund net exposure falling below 40% and the VIX index exceeding 50, but a complete correlated sell-off has not yet occurred [6]. Group 4: Key Issues Influencing Market Direction - Four major issues are highlighted as critical for market direction: - Fundamentals: The impact of tariffs will take months to fully manifest, with historical data showing that a 20% drop in the S&P 500 typically indicates a recession [7]. - Federal Reserve: The Fed's response to economic slowdown may lag behind the situation, as indicated by Powell's comments suggesting they are not in a hurry [7]. - Foreign Flows: Actual funds, especially from outside the US, could have the most significant downside impact on the market [8]. - Financial Leverage: While much leverage has been removed from the system, not all has been, and the market is shorting Gamma values [8].

美联储"爆雷"亏损5600亿是真的吗？ 美联储又亏了，而且亏得离谱！ 2024年，美联储运营亏损高达776亿美元（约5600亿元人民币），这已经是它连续两年巨额亏损，2023 年的亏损甚至更夸张，达到了1145亿美元！ 这个消息一出，市场一片哗然——"美联储是不是要破产了？" "美元要崩了？" "美国经济是不是要出大 问题？" 别急，今天我们就来拆解一下：美联储的巨额亏损，究竟意味着什么？美元真的会因此'爆雷'吗？ 美联储不是普通的商业银行，但它依然需要向商业银行支付超额准备金利息，而这些利息支出在利率上 升后暴涨，远远超过了它持有的低利率债券带来的收益。 换句话说，美联储之前借了一堆低息贷款，现在要用高息去还款，这亏损就来了！ 利率直接降到接近零，让市场充满流动性，避免经济崩溃； 疯狂买债，开启量化宽松（QE），光是国债和MBS（抵押贷款支持证券）就买了上万亿美元！ 2022—2023年，美联储连续11次加息，将利率拉到5%以上，创下40年来最快加息周期！ 加息的后果是，美联储自己也要付出巨额利息成本！ 美联储真的要"破产"了吗？别闹，央行没这回事！ 为什么美联储会亏损？谁"坑"了它？ 1. 疫情救市，大手 ...