新华财经北京6月19日电根据2025年陆家嘴论坛披露的信息，中国人民银行与证监会研究推进人民币外 汇期货交易，这是2025年金融开放战略的重要举措。双方将围绕完善外汇市场产品序列展开合作，重点 探索以美元兑人民币为标的的期货合约，计划在上海中国金融期货交易所（CFFEX）试点上市。这一 动作旨在通过标准化衍生品工具，增强汇率风险管理能力，推动人民币汇率形成机制市场化改革。 人民币外汇期货的发展不仅与人民币国际化进程密切相关，也满足了企业在汇率风险管理方面的需求。 境内市场方面，上海期货交易所曾于2018年开展人民币外汇期货仿真交易，但境内一直尚未正式推出外 汇期货产品。一般投资者参与外汇期货买卖时，可通过芝商所（CME）等境外合规交易平台，且需遵 守国家外汇管理局关于个人购汇用于境外投资的相关规定。需注意的是，中国对跨境金融交易监管严 格，投资者需避免通过非法平台参与，以防资金安全风险，同时外汇期货属杠杆交易，需具备相应风险 承受能力。 期货市场的开放还将增强人民币资产的吸引力。截至2024年，境外机构持有境内人民币债券规模达4.8 万亿元，但汇率避险工具的不足制约了配置意愿。衍生品交易能吸引投机资金入场，扩 ...

Group 1: Macro Overview - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focused on "Financial Openness and High-Quality Development in the Context of Global Economic Changes," highlighting global financial governance, extensive financial openness, capital market support for technological innovation, and a comprehensive foreign exchange innovation policy [2][11]. - The forum emphasized the need for international financial organizations to enhance the representation of emerging markets and developing countries, and to innovate structural monetary policy tools [3][11]. Group 2: Financial System and Openness - China's financial high-level openness has vast prospects, focusing on expanding consumer demand, promoting fintech, strengthening green finance, and enhancing pension finance [3][12]. - The report outlines ten facilitation policies for foreign exchange management, aiming to create a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system [4][13]. Group 3: Capital Market and Technology Innovation - The introduction of the "1+6" policy measures aims to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the establishment of a growth layer for unprofitable companies and the introduction of seasoned professional investors [4][5][29]. - The report indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board will support a broader range of sectors, including artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace, enhancing the financing pathways for high-quality tech companies [6][29]. Group 4: IPO and Market Dynamics - The IPO approval process has accelerated, with 19 companies accepted for listing in 2025, signaling a positive trend for new listings [7][29]. - The report notes that the introduction of a third listing standard on the ChiNext board is expected to facilitate the listing of unprofitable companies and those from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7][29]. Group 5: Industry Insights - The railway investment in China showed a year-on-year growth of 5.9% from January to May 2025, indicating a stable investment environment in the railway sector [18][19]. - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a favorable policy environment, with multiple departments issuing supportive measures for innovative drug development [21][22]. Group 6: Company-Specific Updates - Meinuo's revenue from the formulation business is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 84% in 2024, driven by new product registrations and strategic partnerships [35][36]. - Didi's financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 53.52 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting stable demand and improved profitability in international operations [39][40].

| | 品种 | 主力合约 | | 欢迎关注微信公众号 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | 点评 | 指数下方支撑较稳定,上方突破压力犹存,关税谈 | | | | IF2506 | | 判仍在继续博弈,陆家嘴金融论坛再度体现提升对 | | | 股指 | IH2506 | 陆家嘴论坛部署系列金融政策,A股震荡中企稳 | 外开放、人民币国际化的发展目标,境内风险资产 | | | | IC2506 | | 有望吸引更多国际资本流入。短期成交量未有扩 | | | | IM2506 | | 大,震荡为主,尝试卖出7月5800执行价看跌期 权赚取权利金。 | | | | 12509 | | | | 金融 | 国债 | TF2509 6095ZSL | 陆家嘴论坛中对货币政策提及较少,市场前期预期的政策暂未 落地,但期债并未出现明显回调,整体市场情绪相对偏强。 | 单边策略上,期债可适当逢调整配置多单。期现策 略上,可以适当关注TS2509合约正套策略。 | | | | 6095711 | | | | | | | | 后续继续关注美国是否介入伊以冲突,若避险情 ...

资本市场改革再添积极变化 ——2025 年陆家嘴金融论坛简评 证券研究报告 策略视角 华泰研究 方正韬 研究员 SAC No. S0570524060001 fangzhengtao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 核心观点 6 月 18-19 日，陆家嘴金融论坛（以下简称"论坛"）在沪举行，18 日央行行长潘功胜宣布八项金融开放举措，证监会 主席吴清等发表重要讲话。我们认为，论坛有望推动资本市场改革和发展，为权益市场中长期向好提供有利土壤，关 注三大重点：1）建设上海金融中心，建立沪港联动机制，发挥协同效应；2）设立数字人民币国际运营中心，数字货 币+跨境支付或助力人民币国际化提速；3）多措并举深化科创板、创业板改革，金融服务高质量发展。配置上，大金 融、数字经济/支付、科创或受益，中长期关注以 A50、消费、金融为代表的核心资产。 建设上海金融中心，建立沪港联动机制 沪港联动发挥协同效应，资金引进来，企业"走出去"。6 月 18 日，沪港两地共同举行发布会，签署《沪港国际金融中 心协同发展行动方案》。在年初以来港股一二级市场火热的背景下，我们认为该方案有两层重要含义。1）资金引进来 ...

证券研究报告 陆家嘴论坛：货币政策对内搞活市场， 对外加快开放 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 易峘 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 6 月 18 日（周三），2025 年陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕。开幕式上，央行行长 潘功胜宣布 8 项金融开放措施，聚焦金融基础设施、数字金融、跨境贸易和 监管创新，显示央行搞活国内金融市场、加大对外开放的政策取向。 在政策立场方面，货币政策对内或以结构性政策为主，进一步降准降息空 间可能有限。潘行长在主题演讲中对货币政策的阐述不多，提及央行坚持支 持性货币政策立场，并表示将继续做好货币政策框架转型的评估和完善。如 我们在中期策略报告《"再平衡"中孕育新机遇》（2025/6/3）中分析，银行 净息差偏低可能制约央行进一步降息的幅度，预计下半年小幅降准 50 个基 ...

Group 1: Core Policies Announced - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing financial infrastructure and services [2][3] - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database to analyze transaction data across various financial sub-markets [2] - Creation of a digital RMB international operation center to promote the internationalization of digital currency [2] Group 2: Support for Financial Center Development - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a joint action plan with the Shanghai government to support the construction of an international financial center [4] - Encouragement for innovation in technology finance and cross-border finance, including the establishment of financial asset investment companies in Shanghai [4] - Recent approvals for insurance asset management companies in Shanghai, indicating ongoing support for financial openness [4] Group 3: Innovation in Capital Markets - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "1+6" policy measures to enhance the STAR Market, including the establishment of a growth tier for technology companies [6][7] - Introduction of six reform measures aimed at improving the listing process and support for high-quality technology enterprises [6][7] - Plans to establish a specialized technology company in Shanghai to enhance asset management services and investment capabilities [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides an overview of the prices and trends of various commodities in the chemical and agricultural sectors, as well as macro - economic news and morning views on major commodities. It analyzes the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment suggestions for different products, and also comments on the stock market and option - financial market [3][5][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Commodity Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On June 19, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil had the highest increase with a price rise of 11.60 to 564.30, a 2.099% increase, while PX had the largest decline, dropping 34.0 to 6,954.00, a 0.487% decrease [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, yellow corn had the highest increase, rising 36.0 to 2,399.00, a 1.523% increase, and No. 1 cotton had the largest decline, dropping 70.0 to 13,470.00, a 0.517% decrease [3]. 2. Macro - Economic News - **International Tensions**: Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran will not accept any "imposed peace or war" and will "not turn a blind eye" to any attacks on its territory. Israel will be "punished" if it makes serious mistakes [5]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in its June meeting, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The dot - plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026 [5]. - **Financial Policies**: At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, multiple financial regulatory departments announced measures to support high - level opening up, such as the central bank's 8 initiatives for Shanghai's international financial center construction [6]. - **Expansion of QFII Participation**: Starting from the night session on June 19, QFIIs can participate in trading glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, ethylene glycol, LPG, natural rubber, lead, and tin futures and options [6]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot market is stable with a slight weakness. The short - term futures market will likely be weak and volatile, waiting for new drivers [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 55% on June 17. With a favorable US biodiesel policy and rising crude oil prices, the oil market is expected to be strong [11]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price has fallen below the key support of 5,700. It is recommended to short on rallies to 5,720, and pay attention to the 5,600 support [11]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price should focus on the 2,400 technical resistance. If the September contract breaks through, a light - position long can be considered, with 2,350 as the support [11]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is stable with a slight increase. The futures contract is testing the 13,800 - 14,000 resistance [13]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable. The futures market has a technical rebound, but the fundamental weakness remains [13]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea price is rising, but the new - order follow - up has slowed. With sufficient supply, the price increase space is limited [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong and East China is expected to decline. The 2509 contract should be treated with a medium - term bearish view [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The imported Mongolian coking coal market is weak, and the coke price may see a fourth - round cut [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper is under pressure at the 80,000 level, while aluminum is supported by low inventory but limited by weak demand in the off - season [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fall. The 2509 contract has a short - term rebound but a medium - term weak pattern [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The trading volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil has slightly improved. The supply - demand structure has improved, but the off - season demand is still under pressure [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon had different performances on Wednesday. Silicon iron may follow the trend of finished products, and the industry can consider hedging on rallies [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with 59,680 as the support and 60,600 as the resistance [19]. 3.4 Option - Financial - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is in a short - term shock pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and wait for callbacks. Attention should be paid to the expiration of June contracts [19][20]. - **Options**: Different stock - index options have different performance in terms of trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors should be defensive, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after volatility decline [20].

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 19 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：陆家嘴论坛：货币政策对内搞活市场，对外加快开放 6 月 18 日（周三），2025 年陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕。开幕式上，央行行长潘 功胜宣布 8 项金融开放措施，聚焦金融基础设施、数字金融、跨境贸易和监 管创新，显示央行搞活国内金融市场、加大对外开放的政策取向。 风险提示：国内金融开放进度不及预期；全球金融市场超预期波动。 研报发布日期：2025-06-19 研究员 常慧丽 SAC:S0570520110002 SFC:BJC906 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 宏观：6 月 FOMC：联储等待关税影响显现 北京时间 6 月 19 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，增长预测下调、通胀和失业率预测上调，2025 年维持 2 次降 息指引，但 2026 年降至 1 次。决议声明删除了委员会"认为失业率和通胀 上升风险增加"的表述；将经济前景不确定性的判断由"进一步上行 ...

此外，许正宇还正式对外表示，将于6月底正式发布第二份发展虚拟资产政策宣言。他表示，关于数字人民币 和数码港元，以前一直用"虚拟"两个字来形容类似资产，但后来发现名不正言不顺，觉得"虚拟"给人一种很 假、好像不是很实质存在的感觉。六月底香港政府将会发布第二份发展虚拟资产政策宣言，将从让数字资产 和实体经济的融合的角度出发，推出一系列措施。 6月18日，香港财经事务及库务局局长许正宇在陆家嘴金融论坛上表示，将于六月底发表第二份 发展虚拟资产政策宣言。他同时表示，稳定币的发展方向，是必须在兼顾反洗钱的同时兼顾到保 护投资者。 在发言中，许正宇表示，稳定币的发行是并非单纯追求科技的应用，也并非仅仅为了实现互通互联，而是想 回归金融的本质，要切实解决经济活动中的痛点问题。 许正宇表示，许多发展中国家面临一些困境，一方面是对本币汇率存在顾虑，另一方面是当地金融机构存在 诸多问题和挑战。在这种情况下，如果使用本币在当地金融机构进行支付，对于收款人或投资方来说可能会 存在担忧。而稳定币恰好可以提供一个有效的解决方案，作为一种支付工具，使得这些国家和地区涉及的交 易交付能够通过稳定币顺利进行。 许正宇强调，稳定币发行人并非一家 ...

6月18日，在2025年陆家嘴论坛上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜公布八项重要金融政策，其中明确提出将会同 证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易，推动完善外汇市场产品序列，便利金融机构和外贸企业更好管理汇 率风险，备受市场关注。 据券商中国记者了解，人民币外汇期货是学术界、企业界呼吁已久的人民币汇率风险管理工具。相较现有工具 体系，外汇期货能够承载更加多元化的交易主体，为境内外贸企业应对汇率风险带来了新的解决方案，尤其是 涉及外贸的中小企业期盼这一工具已久，同时也标志着我国外汇市场建设进入全新阶段。 中小企业汇率避险需求激增 南华期货宏观外汇创新分析师周骥表示，从深层次剖析，这一政策的出台绝非偶然，而是中国经济在全球地位 显著提升过程中，市场内生变革需求的必然结果。 随着中国 经济的快速发展 ，人民币国际化进程不断加速，跨境资本流动愈发频繁且深入，极大地提升了人民 币在国际间的兑换需求。与此同时，国际社会对人民币的关注度持续上升，人民币汇率的双向波动特征也愈发 明显。 "境内企业在这样的环境下，面临的汇率风险急剧增加，其避险需求呈现出指数级的增长态势。市场对多样 化、精准化的人民币汇率风险管理工具的需求也变得愈发迫切。 ...