中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价偏弱。地缘方面，消息称特朗普将与普 | | 原油 | | 京在布达佩斯会面；库存方面，进入消费淡季，美国库存连续累库；供需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 方面，OPEC+10 月 5 日会议计划于 11 月继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单部 | | | | 分止盈。 | | | | 成本端油价偏弱，下游化工需求下降，上方承压。成本端油价走势偏弱； | | LPG | | 基差走弱，期货盘面涨幅大于现货涨幅；供给端相对充足，厂内库存上升； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下游化工开工率下降，需求端支撑下降。策略：合约换月，走势偏弱，逢 | | | | 高空。 | | | | 社库缓慢去化，夜盘再创新低，期限共振下跌。广西石化 70 万吨装置计 | | L | | 划本月底投产，四季度开工季节性回升，供给延续宽松格局。需求端旺季 | | | 空头延续 | 来临， ...

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 娱与不锈钢日评20251020:成本支撑松动,不锈钢偏弱震荡 数据来源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-10 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121160.00 | 121270.00 | -110.00 | 121980.00 | 5 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | > | 121330.00 | 期货连一合约 | 121420.00 | 122180.00 | -90.00 | 收盘价 | > | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121510.00 | 121660.00 | 122370.00 | -150.00 | 5 | | | 121760.00 | 121900.00 | -140.00 | 期 ...

玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/10/20 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2138 21 0.98% 673,055 25.40% 800,344 3.98% 2250 28 1.24% 68,135 5.45% 197,618 9.43% 2286 32 1.40% 3,910 175.16% 3,603 21.35% 2410 26 1.08% 93,712 -5.61% 186,574 4.20% 2543 25 0.98% 1,410 -2.77% 4,526 0.98% 2605 25 0.96% 42 5.00% 168 9.09% 青冈 松原嘉吉 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 1965 2020 2340 2200 2170 2240 2310 20 0 50 -10 20 20 0 -321 -266 54 -86 32 -46 24 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2650 2650 2800 2920 2800 2900 2780 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 107 107 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 6855 and the 10 - day moving average pressure around 6994 [2]. - The overall inventory pressure is not significant, with obvious accumulation in production enterprise inventory and a narrow decline in social inventory [2]. - Oil - made LLDPE cost decreases with the decline of international oil prices, and oil - made profits are restored; coal - made cost decreases slightly, and losses deepen [2]. - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly this week. In October, the supply pressure in the industry is relatively high due to fewer new shutdown devices and the upcoming new production capacity [2]. - The downstream shed film is in the peak season, with orders and operating rates gradually rising to the annual high; the new orders for packaging film are limited, and the devices are expected to operate stably [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures main contracts and different - month contracts increased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased. The trading volume increased, while the open interest decreased. The long and short positions of the top 20 futures decreased, and the net long position decreased [2]. - For example, the closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 6879 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 42, down 9 [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China increased slightly, while that in East China decreased slightly. The basis increased [2]. - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6996.09 yuan/ton, up 0.43 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7145.95 yuan/ton, down 4.52 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of naphtha and ethylene in the upstream decreased [2]. - The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.33 US dollars/barrel, down 0.99 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, down 8.5 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate decreased [2]. - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 81.76%, down 2.19% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of different polyethylene downstream products varied. The operating rate of packaging film decreased slightly, that of pipes increased slightly, and that of agricultural film increased significantly [2]. - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 52.19%, down 0.7%; that of pipes was 32%, up 0.33%; that of agricultural film was 42.89%, up 7.28% [2]. Option Market - The historical and implied volatilities of polyethylene options decreased [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.45%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options decreased [2]. Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, PE production decreased by 2.05% to 65.06 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.19% to 81.76%. The average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.55%, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 7.3% [2]. - As of October 15th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 52.95 tons, up 8.37%; as of October 17th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 tons, down 0.05% [2]. - From October 11th to 17th, the cost of oil - made LLDPE decreased by 3.34% to 7166 yuan/ton, and the oil - made profit increased by 140.29 yuan/ton to - 80.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - made LLDPE decreased by 0.86% to 6507 yuan/ton, and the coal - made profit decreased by 76.15 yuan/ton to 494.14 yuan/ton [2].

2025年10月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：考验21000关口 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs remains, and the futures price is running weakly. In the short term, there is a risk of the pig price rising and then falling back, and in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to strengthen in the second half of next year but with caution [4][46]. - The demand for eggs has seasonally weakened, and the egg price is running weakly. In the short term, the egg price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - It is the new corn crop listing period, and the futures price rebound is under pressure. In the short term, the price is expected to run weakly, and in the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support [6][96]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary Live Pigs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the national spot price was 11.1 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11,670 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 390 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price first declined and then rebounded, and the futures price was under pressure [4][46]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of fertile sows increased slowly from May to November 2024 and decreased slightly after December. The overall sow capacity is abundant, and the production performance has improved. The supply of live pigs will be high until the first half of next year. In October, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased, and the secondary fattening and pressure - barring sentiment increased [4][46]. - **Demand End**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume rebounded from a low level. The cold weather increased demand, but the macro - economy and policies limited the increase in demand. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the frozen - product storage rate increased [4][46]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for fattening increased. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattening pigs decreased. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1, and the state plans to purchase 50,000 tons of pork [4][46]. - **Weekly Summary**: In October, the supply increased, and the short - term pig price lacked the power to continue rising. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will remain high until the first half of next year, and the price in the second half of next year is expected to strengthen but with caution [4][46]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, moderately reduce short positions; for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy; for the 07 and 09 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing [4][46]. Eggs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 2,805 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was - 275 yuan/500 kg, up 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The egg price first declined, then stabilized, and then rebounded slightly, and the futures price first rose and then fell [5][76]. - **Supply End**: In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens remained high. The elimination of old hens increased, and the egg - laying rate recovered. In the medium - to - long term, the supply growth rate will slow down, but the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Demand End**: After the "Double Festival", the terminal demand weakened. The cold weather increased the storage period of eggs and stimulated the inventory demand [5][76]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the egg price will fluctuate at a low level. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, pay attention to the spot price; for the 12 and 01 contracts, try short - selling at high prices [5][76]. Corn - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the corn closing price at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,108 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 42 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday. The price of new corn in the Northeast decreased, and the futures price fluctuated widely at the bottom [6][96]. - **Supply End**: The old - crop inventory of traders is not high. After the festival, the supply of new corn in the Northeast increased, and the production situation is good, with expected high yields. The import of corn and other grains is at a low level [6][96]. - **Demand End**: The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat and the listing of new crops limit the demand for corn. The deep - processing profit has turned positive, and the start - up rate has rebounded but is still at a low level [6][96]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the price of corn is under seasonal pressure. In the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support, and the demand is moderately weak [6][96]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, adopt a short - selling strategy; pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for both LLDPE and PP, the short - term investment view is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market for LLDPE and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the prices will mainly oscillate. The market has returned to fundamentals due to the fading of macro - sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, mainly due to new maintenance at several plants [2] - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64% compared to the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.95 million tons, an 8.37% month - on - month increase. The social sample warehouse inventory was 54.56 million tons, a 4.03% month - on - month increase and a 10.85% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of imported polyethylene warehouses increased by 3.32% month - on - month and decreased by 21.57% year - on - year [2] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 323, with the futures price at a discount [2] - **Profit**: Coal - based and ethane - based production costs increased by 3 and 39 yuan/ton respectively, while oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production costs decreased by 249, 200, and 66 yuan/ton respectively. International oil prices fell this week [2] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2] PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.22%, a 0.47% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 81.01%, a 1.32% month - on - month increase [3] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers increased with the cooling weather, while the PP pipe industry was affected by rainy weather. The demand in multiple fields such as food and daily necessities was good before the e - commerce festivals [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 67.87 million tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons, a 1.16% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of trading companies decreased by 2.25 million tons, an 8.60% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 29, with the futures price close to parity [3] - **Profit**: This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. International oil prices fell [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 2.54% to 6551 yuan/ton; PE futures price decreased by 2.32% to 6874 yuan/ton; PP spot price decreased by 3.24% to 6580 yuan/ton; LLDPE spot price decreased by 2.62% to 7050 yuan/ton [5] - **Production**: PP production increased by 13.61%; PE production decreased by 2.05%; HDPE production decreased by 1.39% [5] - **Start - up Rates**: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.60% to 38.6%; PE start - up rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.76% [5] - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 1.58% to 42970 tons; PE social inventory increased by 3.02% to 66.47 million tons; HDPE social inventory data was unavailable; PP warehouse receipts increased by 2.02% to 14313 hands; PE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 12685 hands [5] - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The agricultural film start - up rate increased by 20.44% to 42.89%; the packaging film start - up rate decreased by 1.32% to 52.19%; the PP pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.89% to 36.6%; the injection - molding start - up rate decreased by 7.57% to 53.48% [5] - **Cost and Profit**: PP weighted profit increased by 5.66% to - 509.7718 yuan/ton; PE weighted profit decreased by 237.96% to 46.287134 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Recently, urea prices have been oscillating at a low level, and the spot market remains dull. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, urea is currently at a low valuation, and further short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1602.00 yuan/ton on October 17, down 2.00 yuan (-0.12%) from October 16 - UR05 closed at 1672.00 yuan/ton on October 17, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 16 - UR09 closed at 1705.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 1.00 yuan (0.06%) from October 16 [1] Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 112.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 3.00 yuan from October 16 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 70.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 1.00 yuan from October 16 [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1604 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1608 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1591 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1602 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1600 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 313,746 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PVC: Supply-demand pressure is high, and the fundamental supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease. The futures and spot prices are both weakening. Supply is expected to increase as some maintenance enterprises resume production next week. The peak season shows no obvious improvement, and downstream product enterprises perform averagely. The export market is affected by India's anti-dumping tax, with a wait-and-see attitude. The cost side provides bottom support, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, with a bearish view on rebounds [3]. - Caustic Soda: The price of downstream alumina continues to decline, and the industry's profit is shrinking with increasing losses. Some enterprises have cut production passively, so the demand-side support for caustic soda is weak. In the medium to long term, there is demand support as alumina has many planned projects in Q1 next year, which may lead to concentrated stockpiling in Q4 this year. After the National Day, non-aluminum industries may have purchasing intentions due to low prices. However, in the short term, the supply of caustic soda is increasing, while downstream demand is average, so the market sentiment is weak, and the price lacks support. A bearish view is recommended for short-term trading, and the downstream replenishment rhythm needs to be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Trends**: The macro environment has weakened, and the caustic soda market has been affected by factors such as high开工 rates, inventory changes, and alumina demand. The futures price has fluctuated, and the spot price has shown a downward trend in some periods [8]. - **Supply**: The national average weekly weighted开工 rate of sample enterprises decreased to 85.45% from 88.24% last week, and the caustic soda production decreased by 3.17% to 82.43 tons. Many enterprises have carried out maintenance or faced unexpected failures [27]. - **Demand**: The demand from the alumina industry is weak due to its poor profitability. However, new alumina projects are expected to drive demand growth in the future. Non-aluminum industries may increase purchases after the National Day [4]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased in August but the export profit increased in September [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Trends**: The PVC futures price has been on a downward trend due to weak supply-demand drivers and a poor commodity market atmosphere. The spot price has also weakened [63]. - **Supply**: The overall开工 rate of PVC powder decreased to 75.14% this week, with significant decreases in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods. Many enterprises have carried out maintenance [85]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are lower than the average of the past five years, and the inventory is high [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years [101]. - **Export**: The net export volume decreased in August. The import volume in August 2025 was 1.24 tons, and the export volume was 28.41 tons [113][119].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [1] - Silver: Short - term watch, long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish, short - term short positions and gradually take profits, long - term short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The short - term safe - haven demand for gold has declined but still exists. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, with the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - Silver has high short - term volatility due to potential US taxation and low London inventory. Long - term, global policy will stimulate demand and there will be a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is in high - level consolidation in the short term, with supply expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. In the long term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand [1]. - Zinc is under pressure and fluctuating weakly in the short term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the long term [1]. - Lead prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term due to planned restarts of recycling plants and uncertain downstream consumption [1]. - Tin prices are under short - term pressure due to reduced overseas disturbances and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term, with insufficient cost support from alumina but some support from terminal consumption [1]. - Nickel prices are weak, with sufficient domestic supply and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is cautiously bearish due to increased industry开工率 and potential negative impacts on demand [1]. - Polysilicon is bullish as there are expectations of production capacity regulation and potential production cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, with supply - demand balance in the short term, continuous inventory reduction, and strong terminal demand [1] 3. Summaries by Catalog Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: G2 tension eases, gold and silver prices adjust. Gold prices are strong due to US government shutdown, ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, and repeated Middle - East problems [2]. - **基本逻辑**: Sino - US relations ease; Ray Dalio emphasizes a bullish stance on gold; the Middle - East issue is repeated. Long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **策略推荐**: Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Domestic gold has strong support at 950. Silver has high speculative sentiment, with short - term adjustments. Short - term investors should watch, while long - term investors can hold [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper is consolidating in a high - level range [6]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. High copper prices suppress demand, and domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [6]. - **策略推荐**: Copper is in high - level consolidation, but the long - term trend is unchanged. Hold previous long positions with trailing stops, and new long positions should enter on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [83000, 88000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [10000, 11000] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Zinc prices are under pressure and fluctuating weakly [10]. - **产业逻辑**: The global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the "Silver October" peak season is lackluster [10]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term short positions can gradually take profits. Wait for rebounds to re - enter short positions. In the long term, zinc is a short - side allocation. Shanghai zinc focuses on [21600, 22000] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2900, 3000] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina prices are stabilizing at a low level [13]. - **产业逻辑**: There are still expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high operating capacity, and inventory is decreasing. The alumina market is in surplus in the short term [14]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term, buy Shanghai aluminum on dips. Pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] [15]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebound and then decline, and stainless steel prices rebound slightly [17]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas disturbances in nickel ore supply are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain [18]. - **策略推荐**: Temporarily watch nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2511 opens high and goes high, but the gains narrow at the end [21]. - **产业逻辑**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Demand is strong, and supply has accident rumors. Terminal demand is strong, supporting prices [22]. - **策略推荐**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range [75300 - 77800] [23]